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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 5, 2019 9:08:27 GMT -5
TCU and Texas both getting handled by Kansas State and Texas Tech. Good for Hoyas... Those two losses last night do help the Hoyas, and other teams on the bubble. I really don't understand how TCU and Oklahoma are even considered on the bubble. They are both going to end up with a losing record in their conference and while the Big 12 is not bad this year, it is not like they are playing in the ACC. Even Texas, who it seems people are saying are comfortably in the field are confusing to me. They have a .500 record in conference and just barely a winning record overall but they re considered a 10/11 seed!!! Texas could easily end up below 500 in conference and with just a .500 record overall, but everyone still thinks they should make the tournament? In many recent years you needed to be above .500 to even be considered for the NIT, I guess that has changed lately with the NCAA. Bottom line is the Hoyas just need to keep winning and they should be OK. If they finished 10-8 in conference, which would mean a win at Marquette, I would have to believe it would be really tough to keep them out. Even with a loss at Marquette, they should have a good chance if they can win 2 BET games, as long as they take care of DePaul this week. The B12 is actually #1 in both conference NET and RPI (the latter by a substantial margin). warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencenetwarrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencerpiAs luck would have it, Texas actually ends up hosting TCU to end the regular season. We probably won't be able to keep both out of the tourney given the strength of the conference's computer numbers, but a Texas win should knock out TCU (barring a long run in the conference tourney).
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 4, 2019 23:17:20 GMT -5
TCU and Texas both getting handled by Kansas State and Texas Tech. Good for Hoyas... And both go on to lose by large margins. That bubble is getting mighty crowded.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 4, 2019 11:32:32 GMT -5
Great point. Several posters here have alluded to some "Mac Effect" and that it will enhance our chances with the committee simply because they want to see him in the tourney. The average college basketball fan is much more excited to see what Ja can do on the big stage; kid is a top 5 pick in June. I don't think the committee will be selecting teams just to try to get a big name into the tourney, but if they were, Murray St. would be the team to include over us. I've seen Lipscomb on a bunch of lists too; I would not rule them out of the at-large discussion either in addition to the teams you've mentioned. Speaking of TCU, a loss tonight puts them at 6-11 in the B12, and they have already slid into a bunch of last four ins on several brackets. That is a big game for us tonight. I realize the selection process changes pretty much every year with what the most important criteria is for the committee, but how are some of these teams that will absolutely have losing records in their conference still getting so much consideration? I am baffled as to why TCU and Indiana are still considered "on the bubble". I get they had some good Quad 1 wins but they are both going to be in the bottom half of their conferences. It will be a really interesting selection process this year and there may be some really annoyed teams that get bumped for teams that have mediocre records. I don't think Indiana gets in without sweeping their final 2 (Illinois and Rutgers) and winning at least 1 in the B10 tourney. They do that (they should) and at least they've finished 9th in a 14 team conference. Would not be dissimilar to the BE receiving 11 bids out of 16 teams in 2011 as far as ratios are concerned. Oddly enough I think TCU's resume is even dicier than Indiana's. Only 2-7 vs the Q1 (worse than us) and in a highly plausible scenario they lose vs. K St. and at Texas, that puts them at 6-12 in conference. Even with no bad losses, I just can't see that being good enough to make it. At least Texas has the 5 Q1 wins. If the B12 gets 8 out of 10 teams in with that kind of mediocrity, the committee will get far more questions about that on Selection Sunday vs. taking a high performing mid major.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 4, 2019 10:56:57 GMT -5
The most interesting thing to me is what the committee will do with the usual 1 bid conferences that have 2 or 3 worthy teams this year. For instance assuming Belmont beats Murray State will Murray State and Ja get in. If Wofford beats the UNCG-Furman winner will that loser get in? Their NETs show they are more worthy than say we are right now but mid majors just keep getting killed every week that results are calculated so will it be enough to hand on. Will the committee treat them differently than they have in the past? I don't want to it to come at our expense but I would much rather watch a tourney with those tiny schools getting the chance to pull an upset over a mediocre major conference team. Who here would really rather watch TCU vs Alabama than one of those other teams i mentioned. Great point. Several posters here have alluded to some "Mac Effect" and that it will enhance our chances with the committee simply because they want to see him in the tourney. The average college basketball fan is much more excited to see what Ja can do on the big stage; kid is a top 5 pick in June. I don't think the committee will be selecting teams just to try to get a big name into the tourney, but if they were, Murray St. would be the team to include over us. I've seen Lipscomb on a bunch of lists too; I would not rule them out of the at-large discussion either in addition to the teams you've mentioned. Speaking of TCU, a loss tonight puts them at 6-11 in the B12, and they have already slid into a bunch of last four ins on several brackets. That is a big game for us tonight.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 4, 2019 9:52:59 GMT -5
Agree that the Q1 wins will be a huge factor for selection. The NET team sheets that the committee will be supplied with have two different categories for Q1 victories (example shown here)While both a win at Marquette and a neutral win vs either Nova/Marquette in the BET semis would count as a Q1 win, the at Marquette game may be valued more, as it will definitely fall under the top Q1 section [(H 1-15)(N 1-25)(A 1-40)] vs. all other Q1 games (H 16-30)(N 26-50)(A 41-75). As of today, we don't have a win that falls under that top Q1 section. I won't pretend to know if the committee will value these Q1 games differently, but that it is even separated in distinct categories on the sheet means it will probably be considered. It's definitely possible that the neutral semifinal game could make the top Q1 section too (currently Marquette is 26 and Nova is 25), but I would highly doubt Marquette falls below 40, so this Saturday's game definitely will count as the marquee win on the resume.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 4, 2019 9:19:28 GMT -5
ASU hangs on. The bubble continues to get tougher with most teams at the cut line taking care of business and getting some key quality wins over the weekend. Obviously we need to beat Depaul, but it's looking more and more like that Marquette game on Saturday is becoming a must. Yeah, I guess you could say this about a lot of games but who would have thought that Marquette home game would have been so huge? We caught a huge break with Howard not only being out but Marquette having no time to adjust to it. That game hurts. It's a tall order for us to make the tourney. Frankly, Im putting more eggs in the BET basket. I think some crazy stuff is going to happen in NYC. Oh, I'm absolutely thrilled the games this week are meaningful. The team deserves all the credit in the world for taking care of business at home and giving themselves a shot. There were just too many teams this past weekend (Utah St., Indiana, UCF, Creighton, etc.) that got huge profile boosting wins. Had they all gone the other way you might be able to convince me that 9-9 and 2 wins in NYC would do it. But a win on the road at Marquette is going to count much more for computer numbers than beating either them or Nova on a neutral floor (1.4 vs. 1.0). Unfortunately, it is our NET ranking that is keeping us from being definitively ahead of most of the other bubble teams, since we have the quality wins and an overall record that wouldn't be prohibitive (side note: only 1 team in the past 25 years has made the tourney as at an-large being less than 4 games over .500). Win these two games this week and get ourselves near 60 NET heading to NYC and you can put me in the camp that believes a Thursday win in NYC clinches a bid. But as you said, the crazy thing is we could literally be playing almost anybody in that game depending on how this last week shakes out.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2019 22:13:30 GMT -5
ASU hangs on. The bubble continues to get tougher with most teams at the cut line taking care of business and getting some key quality wins over the weekend. Obviously we need to beat Depaul, but it's looking more and more like that Marquette game on Saturday is becoming a must.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2019 21:33:48 GMT -5
I like what Greg gives us in spurts with his shooting and versatility. But in the dying moments of games when we are trying to protect a lead, I'm not sure I want to see him on the floor. He's been used a number of times on inbounds and it just hasn't worked out. But on top of that, even though he's an 81% FT shooter, the eye test tells me he's been far worse in crunch time when the game is on the line (would love for someone to take a look and back up/refute this point). We really need to clean up the turnovers that seem to plague this team every time they face pressure while trying to protect a late lead. So true. I'm remembering too many in-bounding mistakes from Greg, but would like to have the real numbers. My question is who would replace him for the in-bounding? Jagan and Kaleb have made their share of mistakes in similar situations and Pickett makes too many IQ mistakes. It's all about designing a play for a pass up high to Jessie and giving him options for the quick pass if double-teamed. Excellent point. Ideally you'd like to have a big you trust since he can see over the defender on the ball, but the most important thing is decision-making. With his lack of speed (and also questionable FT shooting in close and late), you'd think Jessie would be a good candidate to inbound if he was smart with the passes, but my guess is that he's not entirely comfortable in that role. The lack of a trusted go-to inbounder on this team that we can count on in pressure situations is a minor but overlooked role on this team that we don't have a great answer for at the moment.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2019 20:41:34 GMT -5
Arizona St. a huge bubble game for us right now, as they are listed as one of the last 4 teams in on several projections. Really need a loss there.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2019 20:37:23 GMT -5
Depaul may not be talented and/or play a good game on Wed., but today's result clearly shows that they've not given up on the season and are still competing. Hoyas will need to match the intensity of a team that has seen them VERY recently and wants payback.
Hoping the key guys can recover from the heavy minutes sustained last night. In an ideal world, we can distribute minutes in order to save legs for Saturday, but ensuring the win first of course is priority #1.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 3, 2019 20:33:39 GMT -5
The gamut of emotions last night... that was really something.
Everything I've wanted to say has probably already been said, but I'll reiterate the following:
I'm going to come out right at the beginning and say floor slaps are one of my biggest basketball pet peeves. But if Akinjo's act of sheer defiance in standing up to the bullies of this conference is the turning point for this team, then I will be fine with the floor slap being the catalyst. We've been asking for tough guys, guys who will compete and not back down, etc. for years. What I liked about it is was that it wasn't a play made for showboating, it was a play about accepting and meeting the challenge. It reminded me of the disrespect Carl Krauser and Pitt showed us late in the 2nd half of a game in DC with the chest butting and showboating at midcourt. Those Hoya teams responded to the challenge and dealt with it accordingly. Hopefully this was a message sent to the rest of the league that there will be no tolerance for disrespect at our house going forward.
I think we'll continue to see Mosely starting for Pickett the rest of the way. We weren't great offensively, but you can tell there is a certain steadying presence that Jagan is bringing on both ends of the floor which Pickett was not. When you are relying on 3 freshman as much as we are, there needs to be that upperclassman leadership to complement them and Jagan is providing it.
A lot has been made about Jessie being the primary cause of our struggles the first 40-42 minutes (he was) and the reason we came back in the end (chasedown block in transition on Powell, scoring 15 in the OTs). It was both. Bottom line is he bailed himself out last night. I know we've been waiting for his intensity light to stop flickering and just stay on; the only thing we can do is just hope that this was his final wake-up call: we cannot survive a bad game from him and beat good teams.
I like what Greg gives us in spurts with his shooting and versatility. But in the dying moments of games when we are trying to protect a lead, I'm not sure I want to see him on the floor. He's been used a number of times on inbounds and it just hasn't worked out. But on top of that, even though he's an 81% FT shooter, the eye test tells me he's been far worse in crunch time when the game is on the line (would love for someone to take a look and back up/refute this point). We really need to clean up the turnovers that seem to plague this team every time they face pressure while trying to protect a late lead.
Other posters earlier in this thread called it an old school BE rock fight and that was exactly it. It's been a long time where we could legitimately say we won a game with our defensive effort in spite of struggle on offense. Last night certainly qualified, and it's a good feeling. Ewing reiterated the point by saying the guys played with his personality for the first time last night. This is a sign of growth; you're simply not going to have a great shooting night every time out, but you still need to find other ways to win games.\
Proud of this team for battling all night and making this final week of the regular season meaningful. Proud of the crowd for supporting them. Let's see if they can continue to build on the momentum they've been able to create with the past 7 days.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 1, 2019 12:43:37 GMT -5
Pat being engaged is not new to the DePaul game. At the Illinois game, he yelled rebound before every opponent foul shot. Change that to "box out" and I think we'd be a lot better off.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 1, 2019 10:02:05 GMT -5
Agree with the overall point, but do you think we've gotten a fair shake in terms of calls the last 5-6 games? Feels like we've gotten the short end of the stick more and more as conference season has gone on. I'm not saying Ewing has to chirp every time down the floor like Mullin did last night, but I do think he has to be more demonstrative on those 80-20, 90-10 calls that are being missed. There are always a few calls every game where a fan, thinks the call could have gone the other way. Over the last few Georgetown games I have seen, there have been some of those, but there have also been a few other calls where I think the Hoyas may have gotten the benefit of the doubt. In most cases if the players play hard and clean, and don't whine about everything, the calls should pretty much even themselves out over a course of a game. Most officials don't have any issues with talking to players or coaches, as long as it is done in a respectful manner. It is when the player or coach makes a scene and is trying to show up a referee, when the officials get fed up and things become heated. I have never had an issue with a player or coach coming over during a stoppage in the game and saying something like "can you watch number XXX, he is grabbing me where I come off the screen" or something like that. The very vast majority of officials go into each game just wanting to do the best job they can and hope they have a minimal impact on the game and let the players decide the outcome. Absolutely. What Ponds did last night (and Marvin Clark seemingly does every game) is a direct result of Mullin not controlling his kids and setting a proper example. In my opinion, kids should never be getting t'ed up; leave that to the coaches, especially at the college level where techs are also personals. For the most part, I thought the first half of the conference season was actually well-officiated, but I think it's definitely skewed a bit against us recently. I understand these calls somewhat on the road, but we shouldn't be struggling with this as bad as we are at home. Part of that does have to do with the GU crowd not riding officials nearly as hard as some other fan bases do (which can also be somewhat blamed by the lack of Jumbotron replays at Cap One). I agree Ewing's done a better job than his predecessor in working the officials during timeouts and coming out of halves, but there's still more that he could do. With the games as tight as they've been, a call here or there could make or break a game. He can't let us get taken advantage of at home this Saturday. Not with the stakes this high as you've mentioned.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 1, 2019 8:35:15 GMT -5
StJ is the bball equivalent of the Seattle Seahawks.....just foul nonstop....the refs won't call them all.... St John's is a mess and maybe the most undisciplined team I have seen in a long time. They absolutely have talent but make so many poor decisions they play themselves out of games. Their lack of size is really coming back to haunt them as the season goes along as other teams are just crashing the offensive boards and killing them with second chance points. The constant complaining to the refs about every call, every game, is not helping their cause either. I can tell you from personal experience as a referee, that everyone is on edge at this point of the season, (the players, the coaches and the referees). The stakes are higher as everyone tries to finish their season strong while at the same time the referees have been listening to teams complain all season and are sick of listening to the same guys every game. They definitely talk about the teams/players who give them grieve all year before games, and what they may have walked away from earlier in the season now turns into a quick technical. It may not be fair, but it is human nature. I will give the Hoyas some credit here. Coach Ewing will ride the referees to some degree, (and the referees do expect that to some extent) but I do not recall many occasions this year where the players complained much at all. Having your players show some respect to the officails does not hurt your cause. Agree with the overall point, but do you think we've gotten a fair shake in terms of calls the last 5-6 games? Feels like we've gotten the short end of the stick more and more as conference season has gone on. I'm not saying Ewing has to chirp every time down the floor like Mullin did last night, but I do think he has to be more demonstrative on those 80-20, 90-10 calls that are being missed.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 1, 2019 4:23:58 GMT -5
GU moves from 11th out to 10th out on the Matrix. Important to keep in mind the Matrix only gives credit for appearances in the brackets. From an anecdotal standpoint, I've seen us appear far more often in the First Four Out than the Next Four Out or even unlisted. Those results won't show in the Matrix. Thursday's bubble games include: 7th to last team in: Arizona St. at Oregon (a loss puts them in the First Four and maybe close to the cut line) 4th to last team in: Minnesota at Northwestern (would be damaging loss that probably knocks them out of the field) 12 seed (AQ): Belmont at UT Martin (a loss here clinches the OVC as a 1-bid league if it hasn't already, but if they and Murray St. go undefeated till the title game, bubble teams will be sweating) 3rd team out: St. Mary's vs. Portland (any non-Gonzaga missteps end their at-large hopes) 5th team out: UNC Greensboro at The Citadel (a bad loss here takes them out of at-large consideration for sure) 6th team out: Nebraska at Michigan (not a whole lot of meat to Nebraska's profile, just wins at Clemson and Indiana) 8th team out: San Francisco vs. San Diego (see St. Mary's) ASU and Nebraska got taken behind the woodshed and USF sees their at-large bubble popped.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 28, 2019 14:33:09 GMT -5
One team is likely last four in. The other team is potentially first four out. This is the play-in game to the play-in game. Win or go home. we are already at home. So wouldn’t that be home or go home. More like win or go back to your shanties. I'm not playing, F being PC... guys better be ready for war on Saturday.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 28, 2019 12:41:17 GMT -5
Shocking that Lee Reed missed this when the schedule was being drawn up. #whynotus
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 28, 2019 10:42:19 GMT -5
Nova's offensive rebounding in the final 5 minutes won that game for them. I've rarely seen a team hit the glass that hard in recent memory. They just wanted it more and it showed. FWIW, the result last night means Marquette will likely have to go through us to clinch a BE regular season title. I believe next Saturday is already sold out. I got tickets behind the guest team bench for $65 for the DePaul game next week. Great seats for the Marquette game were $300+. Yes, it looks to be a hot ticket. Crazy. Will be at both games next week in the GU sections. Very happy I bought the Marquette ones early; those same seats are going for minimum 2x face on Stubhub right now.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 28, 2019 10:04:01 GMT -5
I watched the Nova vs MU game after ours last night and after an early lead went away, I figured Nova was toast. Paschal and Booth are both beat. Samuels had a great game, but what won it for them was their intensity. Defense and rebounding, diving on the floor, very impressive. I know it was a game they HAD to win, back home after three straight losses. It would be great to see that kind of intensity with the Hoyas, but it is tough when your most intense players are freshmen. Nova's offensive rebounding in the final 5 minutes won that game for them. I've rarely seen a team hit the glass that hard in recent memory. They just wanted it more and it showed. FWIW, the result last night means Marquette will likely have to go through us to clinch a BE regular season title. I believe next Saturday is already sold out.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 28, 2019 9:20:11 GMT -5
GU moves from 11th out to 10th out on the Matrix. Important to keep in mind the Matrix only gives credit for appearances in the brackets. From an anecdotal standpoint, I've seen us appear far more often in the First Four Out than the Next Four Out or even unlisted. Those results won't show in the Matrix.
Thursday's bubble games include:
7th to last team in: Arizona St. at Oregon (a loss puts them in the First Four and maybe close to the cut line) 4th to last team in: Minnesota at Northwestern (would be damaging loss that probably knocks them out of the field) 12 seed (AQ): Belmont at UT Martin (a loss here clinches the OVC as a 1-bid league if it hasn't already, but if they and Murray St. go undefeated till the title game, bubble teams will be sweating) 3rd team out: St. Mary's vs. Portland (any non-Gonzaga missteps end their at-large hopes) 5th team out: UNC Greensboro at The Citadel (a bad loss here takes them out of at-large consideration for sure) 6th team out: Nebraska at Michigan (not a whole lot of meat to Nebraska's profile, just wins at Clemson and Indiana) 8th team out: San Francisco vs. San Diego (see St. Mary's)
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