Bilas' Take On Jeff and Roy's Prospects

[pkhoya03]

Jeff Green, Georgetown
Green is every bit as good a prospect as Julian Wright and Corey Brewer. He is versatile, smart, skilled and has a high basketball IQ. Green can handle and pass, and has the ability to play multiple positions. His motor has been questioned, but I don't have that question about him. He is a team player, and can be assertive and take charge when it is required of him. Green's stock is high, but it could be higher if he let the big shots in this year's draft clear. Green will be a lottery pick, but it would not be a bad decision for him to come back. However, it would not be a bad decision to go either. Green can play, so getting out while he is hot is not really an issue.

Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Hibbert had a great year, and his performance against Greg Oden in the Final Four is a great springboard for coming out this year, and it validates the season he had. Hibbert may not be a great athlete, but he is so big and skilled that he will be a good NBA player. Hibbert does not change ends particularly well, but that will not change in another year of college. Hibbert is likely a lottery pick this year or next, but another year of college could help his confidence and his overall game. Nonetheless, there would be nothing to question if Hibbert came out this year. That is not a bad call on his part.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

good analysis by bilas. especailly like him saying it's best for them to come back but saying that they could not be faulted for staying in. He apprently does this for other players. Any thing surprising there like telling durant or oden they'd be better coming back to school?

[StPetersburgHoya (Inactive)]

I haven't heard anyone make the point that Jeff doesn't need to be "hot" to be a lottery pick before - I think its a solid point and some solid analysis from "Georgetown Jay" - get that man seats next to Luke Winn for our home games next year.

[hifigator]

I pretty much agree with his views in both cases. Basically you couldn't fault either one of them for leaving and from the developmental standpoint they are basically ready. There will be a learning curve for them both but that will always be the case, and an extra year of honing their skills won't make a dramatic impact on their draft status from that point. I do agree with him however about the draft in general. THis year is just a ridiculously deep draft. If Roy and Jeff both return, then you guys will have that big target on your back. I have no doubt that you would be consensus #1 going in and would be expected to win it all. The worst part with expectations like that is that there is no way to improve upon them, only hit them or fall short. We all know how tough making a final four is, yet if you were to lose in the National Semis next year with both Roy and Jeff in addition to the rest of your guys it would be a disappointment. And I don't think that's fair to the team or the players.

[hoyatmf]

hifi, maybe it's the paranoia in me, but i can sense some florida smugness in your post. it is special and difficult to get to a final four; we get that. still, i somehow doubt you or the majority of florida nation were saying these things when the florida sophomores came back for their junior season last year. "it's not fair for them to come back and have targets on their backs. it's not fair to ahve high expectations." of course it is. and if anyone can deal with pressure and high expectations, then certainly jt3 and our guys can. i'm not saying they should definitely come back, nor am i saying that i wouldn't have high expectations but your post seems a bit condescending. with roy and jeff back, georgetown will not just be a good team, but a great team with just about all the elements you would want on a college basketball team. lots of teams expected florida and ucla to return to the final four. they did. good teams are expected to win national titles. if ucla and florida can handle that pressure why not us? go hoyas!!!

btw: an undefeated season is one way to surpass just national title expectations. not saying that it's a goal or even a rational thought, but abstractly speaking, it is possible to exceed expectations when everyone expects you to win it all.

[EasyEd]

As much as I like Bilas, it seems to me he copped out by effectively saying it would be a good choice for both to come back and then by saying it would be a good choice if they left. What insights.

[lichoya68]

BUT SEEMS LIKE HES LEANING FOR JEFF TO WAIT AND EVEN ROY BUT LESS SOO SO GO BILAS AND I USED TO CALL YOU JAY BIASED GO JAY AND GO ROY AND JEFF STAY AND HAVE FUN AND GET THE JOB YOU STARTED DONE DONE DONE THAT ALAMO TOUR COULD BE REALLY FUN FUN FUN GO HOYAS

[hoya01]

I agree with easyed. I didn't really read an opinion there, more just wavering.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Well I think he was being honest and I find that refreshing. However I think he was more saying that they should come back but that no one was going to fault them if they stayed in the draft.

[jacko]

The opinion is that either would be good for them. Don't forget that some people would be much better served by spending an extra year in school while others need to go as soon as they can - and many times it's completely evident which they should choose. Bilas is describing their situations as ones without clear answers like we commonly see.

[NCHoya]

I agree Bilas gives no real opinion, but I think this was in the context of looking at like 20+ early entries. So there are going to be several players that can be served well by staying or leaving. I think that is where Green and Hibbert fall in Bilas's opinion and I am in agreement. We have seen on this board compelling arguments made for both scenarios. His best point is Green does not have to concern himself with being "hot" thus he will not get exposed as a fraud if he came back next year to finish his business.

I can actually see a little of this "strike while the iron is hot" thinking applying to Roy. He will not be able to showcase his skills against a better opponent next year than he did versus Oden. Also, I could see Roy falling into a scoring slump or being over analyzed for his lack of athleticism or foot speed next season which would result in a drop in stock. As silly as that seems, it happens to almost every "high upside" player that stays four years. (Aaron Gray?) Meanwhile, Green is a known commodity, his upside is limited, no over analysis is going to make a difference.

One last thought, Jay Bilas is a true supporter of our program. It is great that ESPN's featured college basketball analyst is such an outspoken fan of Georgetown's style of play, our players and our coach. Nothing like having an influential mass media spokesman for the program!

[GIGAFAN99]

nchoya said:

As silly as that seems, it happens to almost every "high upside" player that stays four years. (Aaron Gray?)

I totally disagree on Gray. Gray's falling because he's not that good and there are better 7-foot options in this draft. He thought he'd improve his stock with a big year but instead had the exact same year he had last year and ran into a draft full of centers. He's not getting overanalyzed at all. He's simply hasn't improved.

[SFHoya99]

Gray's stock sucked last year, too. He didn't just come back to win; he was dominated by Patrick O'Bryant in the tournament and wasn't anywhere near the lottery.

[hoyasexy]

sfhoya99 said:

Gray's stock sucked last year, too. He didn't just come back to win; he was dominated by Patrick O'Bryant in the tournament and wasn't anywhere near the lottery.

Exactly. He basically said that he would stay in the draft if he was comfortable that he would be selected in the first round, but those weren't the signals that he was getting. He was an early second round pick last year, and he'll be a mid-to-late second this year, but only because this is a much deeper draft.

[nodak89]

On a semi-related note...

I watched part of the Rockets playoff game the other day and I wonder if Roy isn't better than Yao.

Roy's not as tall, but just as big. I wonder how their wingspans compare. Yao seems like more of his height is in his trunk relative to his limbs.

Man. It seemed familiar to be yelling at the TV, "get the ball to the big man!", but was I more frustrated with Yao's constant fade aways and turning away from the basket (and his 9-24 shooting).

Where's the hooker? How about a drop step? Maybe take it to the bucket?

I think Roy would score on Yao and could probably harass his shot.

[hifigator]

hoyatmf said:

hifi, maybe it's the paranoia in me, but i can sense some florida smugness in your post. it is special and difficult to get to a final four; we get that. still, i somehow doubt you or the majority of florida nation were saying these things when the florida sophomores came back for their junior season last year. "it's not fair for them to come back and have targets on their backs. it's not fair to ahve high expectations." of course it is. and if anyone can deal with pressure and high expectations, then certainly jt3 and our guys can. i'm not saying they should definitely come back, nor am i saying that i wouldn't have high expectations but your post seems a bit condescending. with roy and jeff back, georgetown will not just be a good team, but a great team with just about all the elements you would want on a college basketball team. lots of teams expected florida and ucla to return to the final four. they did. good teams are expected to win national titles. if ucla and florida can handle that pressure why not us? go hoyas!!!

btw: an undefeated season is one way to surpass just national title expectations. not saying that it's a goal or even a rational thought, but abstractly speaking, it is possible to exceed expectations when everyone expects you to win it all.

That was definite paranoia. I meant zero negativity in any way. My points were these:

1. I think Roy and Jeff are as ready most for the step to the next level and I am not sure that another year in college would impact their draft status from that regard.

2. But I think their draft status could rise significantly due to the makeup of the respective drafts. Maybe there will be Durants/Odens etc.... in next year's draft, but as of now I don't see them.

3. If they do come back then in my opinion you will be the consensus # 1 team. With your final four team returning and the addition of Wright and Freeman, you would have to be the favorite.

4. I had always thought that the "target on your back" phrase is overused and overemphasized, until this year. As the defending champion, you do get everyone's best shot, but like I said, I thought that was mostly a bunch of talk. What I didn't consider was that in many cases the whole campus or even the whole community gears up for the game months in advance. There are promotions and all sorts of "side shows" which surround almost every game. I DON'T think that you would have all of that hoopla to worry about simply because you might be ranked #1. That was what I meant. Sorry if that came out wrong.

5. Lastly, the one problem with the highest of expectations are that they can't be exceeded and can only be reached. I think in a sense that is a disservice to the team and coaches. Last year there were between 15,000 and 20,000 fans who met the team when they arrived back from Indianapolis. This year the estimates were between 2 and 3 thousand. Last year University Ave. (the main drag right along campus) was closed until 4:30 am. This year they were already in clean up mode by 2:30. The point is the team accomplished everything (except for the pipe dream of a perfect season) and yet the revelry was not the same. I can only imagine the attitudes had we lost to UCLA or Ohio St. in Atlanta. Again, I don't think that attitude would be nearly as prevailing in your case, since you wouldn't be the defending champs already. But still, when the expectations are to win it all, then it is awfully hard to be happy with anything less. Also I didn't in any way intend to imply that JTIII and crew couldn't handle such pressures or distractions.

I apologize for whatever it was that I said that you interpreted as some kind of insult. None was intended.

[RBHoya]

It's interesting to consider what exactly Roy is looking for. Does he just want to be picked in the top 10? If he's at 50/50, I'm wondering what's going to be the deciding factor. Because looking at all the prospects and the teams in the mix, I don't see anyway that Roy falls out of the top 10. He'd be a really good fit for the Bobcats at 8, as their current center Brezec is not very good, and he'd slide in nicely next to Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor in the front court--that'd really be a front court to be reckoned with going forward, with guys like Morrison and May off the bench and another Hoya in Othello to keep Roy company. And he almost definitely wouldn't fall past the Hawks at 11, based not only on what we've heard but the fact that they've got a lot of talented wings and forwards already, and there probably wouldn't be a top point guard available there. I could also see teams like the Kings (10), Bulls (9), Wolves (7), Sonics (5), or even the Wiz or Celtics if they fell out of the top 3. Basically, I don't see any way he falls from the top 10, and for most prospects that's enough to hang in the draft. Does he want to go top 5? Is there some arbitrary number between 5 & 10 that he has as a cutoff point?

It's just curious to try to figure out the decision process. For most guys, they'll stay in the draft if they are in the lottery, but Roy isn't most guys. We'll see, but if he really is 50/50, I'm wondering what he's going to consider to make the decision.

[HeartAttackHoya]

From one Hoya fan to another, Roy is not and most likely will never be in the same caliber as Yao. 25 points and 10 rebounds per exceeds the expectations of even the greatest of Hibbert fans. If Roy every averages 17 and 7 i think people would be satisfied with that..

[SFHoya99]

heartattackhoya said:

From one Hoya fan to another, Roy is not and most likely will never be in the same caliber as Yao. 25 points and 10 rebounds per exceeds the expectations of even the greatest of Hibbert fans. If Roy every averages 17 and 7 i think people would be satisfied with that..

People laughed when, as a freshman, one announcer said he'd be a #1 pick. If he stays in, he has a good shot.

I've learned not to underestimate Roy. On the right team, he could easily do 25 and 10. Remember, he's 20 years old.

[hoyaLS05]

sfhoya99 said:

heartattackhoya said:

From one Hoya fan to another, Roy is not and most likely will never be in the same caliber as Yao. 25 points and 10 rebounds per exceeds the expectations of even the greatest of Hibbert fans. If Roy every averages 17 and 7 i think people would be satisfied with that..

People laughed when, as a freshman, one announcer said he'd be a #1 pick. If he stays in, he has a good shot.

I've learned not to underestimate Roy. On the right team, he could easily do 25 and 10. Remember, he's 20 years old.

Easily? Really? Don't get me wrong, I love Roy. But exactly ZERO NBA players averaged 25 and 10 this year. Are we really ready to say that on the right team Roy would be the best center in, essentially, the world? I'm not. In fact, I honestly don't think it could happen.

Dirk didn't average 25 and 10. He is INFINITELY more athletic -- and more skilled -- than Roy. Yao didn't do it -- he is bigger and has an outside shot. Maybe Roy develops one, but maybe not. Amare Stoudemire averaged 20 and 9.6. Do we really think Roy has the skill set to be better than Amare, even if he gets to play for a team that plays at the right pace?

I agree -- let's not underestimate Roy. And don't take this as me not liking, rooting for, or appreciating Roy. Roy's offensive skills around the basket are tremendous. Far better than any other center in this draft. But let's also remember that he won't be playing against Aaron Gray next year. In the NBA, you can't just camp out in the paint. If Villanova's guards were able to push Roy out of the key, imagine what Dwight Howard or Chris Bosh could do. You also can't just step towards the basket and kiss a layup off the glass. I think 7-foot-6 Yao Ming would probably do that every time if he could -- but it just doesn't work that way in the NBA.

I think Roy will be solid. His offense is good, he'll grab some boards, and play good enough defense. If he puts up 17 and 7 like someone else mentioned, I'd be ECSTATIC. But for me, I have not seen nearly enough to even imagine that he could average 25 and 10 at any point during his NBA career.