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Post by bostonhoya05 on Feb 26, 2007 14:09:33 GMT -5
Right. Need Louisville to beat Seton Hall still.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Feb 26, 2007 14:16:20 GMT -5
Just get Villanova on the other side of the bracket. Everything else can take care of itself.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 26, 2007 15:41:08 GMT -5
Right. Need Louisville to beat Seton Hall still. No we don't. Louisiville has clinched over 'Cuse (head-to-head tiebreaker).
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 26, 2007 16:26:00 GMT -5
So one more Gtown win or one more Pitt loss locks up the 1 seed for us. Our magic number is 1. Its 2 to win the thing outright, which we'd all prefer.
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Post by bostonhoya05 on Feb 26, 2007 16:58:48 GMT -5
Right. Need Louisville to beat Seton Hall still. No we don't. Louisiville has clinched over 'Cuse (head-to-head tiebreaker). Giga - yes, Louisville has clinched over Cuse, but the way the tiebreaker is written, you would compare us vs. Pitt with COLLECTIVE records against both Louisville and Syracuse (and ND assuming they won Saturday and finished with 5 losses as well). The 1st tiebreaker is head-to-head and we would split with Pitt. The 2nd tiebreaker reads: 2. Each team’s record vs. the team or tied teams occupying the highest position in the standings. Continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. When comparing records against a single team or collective tied teams ( before ties are broken)... (the italics are added by me - you compare the records BEFORE you break ties among those teams) SO - despite the fact that Louisville would beat Syracuse and ND later on in a head-to-head tiebreaker, we'd be compared to Pitt based on our record against the three teams collectively. We beat Louisville, but would have lost to Syracuse; Pitt did the reverse. Pitt didn't play ND so even though we beat them, it wouldn't matter under the "uneven games" tiebreaker. From there, we would go to record against the 6-loss teams (which there don't figure to be any under this scenario since Cuse would have 5 losses and Marquette/WV would both lose to Pitt and have 7-losses). So we would compare records against the 7-loss teams, which would get to be quite messy, so I'll hold off on figuring that out right now. (Again, this assumes Cuse beats us tonight and also wins on Saturday at Nova, Pitt wins out, and we beat UConn Saturday) If Syracuse beat us and then stumbled on Saturday at Nova, I think we'd be OK even if Louisville lost to Seton Hall. Louisville would finish tied at 11-5 with ND. Pitt would be 0-1 vs. ND/Louisville, whereas we were 2-0. Even though it's uneven games, there's no way they could catch us with evening the games, so we'd be OK. SUMMARY: - Win tonight, avoid headaches. - Lose tonight, root hard for Louisville over Seton Hall or Nova over Cuse.
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njcoach
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Post by njcoach on Feb 26, 2007 17:10:35 GMT -5
Just get Villanova on the other side of the bracket. Everything else can take care of itself. Amen.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 26, 2007 21:52:59 GMT -5
I think I caught one mistake. SJU is 6-9, not 7-8. SHU can catch them for the 12th spot if they beat Cinci and L'ville and SJU loses to Providence. SHU has the head to head with SJU.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 26, 2007 22:39:10 GMT -5
Well done, boston. i think you are dead on. Lville winning certainly makes everything a lot easier, since that would be a simple 1-0 v 0-1, but otherwise we do need Syracuse or Pitt to slip up - at Nova and at Marquette are pretty tough games for both of those teams. And, I think one or both of them will lose.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 27, 2007 8:47:55 GMT -5
SO I've been running some scenarios on the rest of the season and if things play out pretty close to where we think they will then we have a VERY good chance of seeing Nova as the 8-9 seed. Even if they win out and a few teams are at 9-7 they seem to always fall to the back of that pack.
Not certain and a lot of things can happen, but in most logical scenarios that's what happens.
We'll see...
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 27, 2007 9:35:59 GMT -5
That's one way to look at it, FOTP, but if they lose out there is still a lot that can happen. They could easily lose at UConn and home against Syracuse, and thus could drop to 10, even 11. There is still too much going on.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 27, 2007 10:28:04 GMT -5
Absolutely. I mostly had them winning, but I'd love to see them at #10...
I just don't want to play them in the quarters. Semi's all bets are off, but I'd rather face a Depaul or Prodidence in the quarters.
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lichoya68
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OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Feb 27, 2007 14:21:13 GMT -5
WHO CARE WHO WE PLAY JUST BEAT UCONN AND START THE NEXT STEAK TO THE NCAAS GO HOYAS BEAT UCONN BAD PLEASE ;D
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Feb 27, 2007 14:44:26 GMT -5
One thing I am not clear about. Can the Orange still get the #4 seed if ND beats Rutgers? If Louisville were to lose both games and Syracuse were to beat Nova, while the other top teams win then I think it would be Gtown, Pitt, ND and then Louisville/Cuse tied. Is that the sceario where Cuse can get the 4 seed even though the Irish win?
Besides, why exactly do you want Syracuse to get the seed anyway? If they get the 5, it would be the same to you except that they would have to win 2 games in 2 days to get the opportunity to face you again. Is that it?
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Post by bostonhoya05 on Feb 27, 2007 14:51:14 GMT -5
Louisville only has one left. If it were a 3-way tie at 11-5 with Cuse, ND, and L'Ville, you'd go mini-conference with the 3 teams.
ND: 2-0 L'Ville: 1-1 Cuse 0-2
So Cuse would fall to 5.
Only way that Cuse jumps ND and gets to 4 is if ND loses and Cuse wins.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Feb 27, 2007 14:58:55 GMT -5
That's what I was thinking. I must have misundestood a possibility someone was talking about.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Feb 27, 2007 21:25:15 GMT -5
I think I have determined that I am rooting for Providence to win out (even though I don't think they'll beat St. John's at the Garden). That appears to be the only way to get Villanova out of the 8-9 game, as they pretty much lose the tiebreaker to everybody. If WVU, DePaul, Villanova and Providence all finish 9-7 (and we can add Marquette as well, if they lose to Pitt), Villanova is in the 7-10 game.
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Post by bostonhoya05 on Feb 27, 2007 22:02:27 GMT -5
The loss tonight puts WV squarely into the 7-loss mess along with Depaul, WV, Providence, and Villanova. Of these teams, WV and Depaul have the easiest remaining games (they also only have one game left). Providence and Villanova both have tougher games (Nova hosts Cuse and Providence goes into the Garden to face St. John’s) – both have to win out to make the 7-loss block. Marquette has the obvious advantage of only having 6 losses.
As it stands now: Marquette – 9-6 (Pitt left) Depaul – 8-7 (USF) WV 8-7 (Cincy) Providence 7-7 (USF, St. John’s) Villanova 7-7 (UConn, Syracuse)
How they did against one another: Nova – (1-3) W: Prov L: Depaul, WV, Marquette
Prov – (2-2) W: WV, Marquette L: Nova, Marquette DNP Depaul
WV – (2-2) W: Depaul and Nova L: Prov, Marquette
Depaul – (2-1) W: Nova, Marquette L: WV DNP: Prov
Marquette - (3-2) W: Nova, WV, Prov L: Depaul, Prov
Various Tiebreakers What I’ve done below is lay out how the standings would shake out for a number of different scenarios. For the sake of sanity, I decided to assume that at the very least WV and Depaul will take care of business and so the other teams are the only variables.
5 way tie (Marquette loses to Pitt, but others win out) Seeds: 6. Depaul (2-1, .667 in miniconference) 7. Marquette (3-2, .600) 8. Prov – (2-2, .500, head-to-head over WV) 9. WV – (2-2, .500) 10. Nova (1-3, .250) (11. UConn, 12. St. John’s)
4-way tie w/o Marquette – (Marq beats Pitt, but rest win out) 6. Marquette
7. WV (2-1) 8. Prov/Depaul (1-1) (not sure who would be ahead, but it wouldn’t matter since 8/9 anyway) 9. Prov/Depaul (1-1) 10. Nova (1-2)
4-way tie w/o Providence (Nova wins out, Depaul wins, WV wins, Marq LOSES, Prov LOSES) 6. Marq or Depaul – (I really don’t think anyone would know how/why between the 2) 7. Marq or Depaul 8. WV (believe me) 9. Nova (0-3 in original miniconference)
10. Prov
3-way tie w/o Providence or Marquette (Nova wins out, Depaul wins, WV wins, Marquette WINS, Providence loses) 6. Marquette
7. WV (2-0 vs. Depaul/Nova) 8. Depaul (1-1 vs. WV/Nova) 9. Nova (0-2 vs. WV/Depaul)
10. Providence
4-way tie w/o Nova (Marquette loses, Nova LOSES ONCE, Depaul wins, WV wins, Providence wins) 6. Prov (2-1 in miniconference) 7. Depaul (1-1, but beat Marquette head-to-head) 8. Marquette (1-1) 9. WV (1-2)
10. Nova
3-way tie w/o Nova or Marquette (Marquette wins, Providence wins out, Nova loses once, WV wins, Depaul wins) 6. Marquette
7. Prov (1-0 – uneven games don’t matter in 3-way tiebreaker) 8. WV (1-1) 9. Depaul (0-1)
10. Nova
3-way tie w/o Providence or Nova (Marquette loses, Depaul wins, WV wins, Prov loses once, Nova loses once) 6. Depaul or Marquette – (can’t tell) 7. Depaul or Marquette – (can’t tell) 8. WV
9. Nova (tied at 8-8 with Prov, but won head-to-head) 10. Prov (lost to Nova head-to-head)
2-way tie w/o Prov, Nova, or Marquette (Marq wins, Depaul wins, WV wins, Prov loses once, Nova loses once) – only Depaul and WV with 7-losses 6. Marquette
7. WV – (beat Depaul) 8. Depaul (lost to WV)
9. Nova 10. Prov
As HoyaRooter indicates just above this, if Providence wins out, Nova cannot get ahead of them and would likely be #10 (again, unless WV or Depaul were upset)
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 28, 2007 9:35:29 GMT -5
Wow, boston, that is awesome, thanks.
It does look like there are a lot of scenarios that put Nova at the 10th. To be honest, I can see being scared of Nova, but for as good as they played us, they are a thoroughly average team against everyone else. I am not sure they would even survive a #8-#9 game.
I didnt realize how unprotected Marquette is, too. They really do need that game against Pitt. I wouldnt like my NCAA chances at #7 or #8 in the BIG East, with a tough first round game. Being #6 is much, much safer. I am still worried about that one, though, because Pitt owes them big time, after the loss at home. Plus, regardless of seeding and our game, if Pitt wins, they are co-Big East champs - definitely something to play for. I think we win and Pitt wins.
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Feb 28, 2007 9:39:32 GMT -5
Great stuff, bh05. Thanks for putting in the time and effort on that.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 28, 2007 11:10:32 GMT -5
Anyone know what time Pitt/Marquette play on Saturday? Stupid work internet blocker....
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