The RPI Thread

[RockawayHoya]

I know a lot of folks on the board said that tracking RPI isn't really important until February. Seeing how our next game isn't until Feb. 1 and our RPI isn't likely to change signficantly from now until Thursday, it's time to start paying closer attention. I thought I'd just write up a brief comparison between where we are so far this year compared to last year:

2005-2006
Overall record (prior to NCAA): 21-9 (10-6 BE)
RPI: 37
SOS: 63
OOC Record: 9-2
OOC RPI: 71
OOC SOS: 214
Road/Neutral record: 10-7
Vs. RPI Top-50: 5-7
Vs. RPI Top-100: 10-8
Vs. RPI 100+: 11-1

2006-2007 (including games through yesterday)
Overall record: 15-5 (5-2 BE)
RPI: 37
SOS: 44
OOC Record: 10-3
OOC RPI: 51
OOC SOS: 86
Road/Neutral record: 5-2
Vs. RPI Top-50: 2-4
Vs. RPI Top-100: 5-5
Vs. RPI 100+: 10-0

Notes: Our SOS at the end of the year will either be comparable or slightly better than our SOS last year, given that the back end of our BE schedule is more difficult than the front end. Despite the fact the BE is far weaker RPI-wise as a conference this year as compared to last year, our OOC schedule was much tougher overall this year than compared to last year's, and that has helped us maintain a respectable RPI despite having played a series of weak BE teams (RPI-wise) in Rutgers, Seton Hall and Cincinatti.

And, a brief BE conference RPI comparsion between this year and last year:

2005-2006:
BE RPI conference rank: 2nd
Non-conference record: 148-43
Teams in the RPI Top 50: EIGHT --> Nova (2), UConn (3), Pitt (11), Syracuse (17), Marquette (31), WVU (35), Georgetown (37), Cincinatti (40)
Teams outside the RPI Top 100: THREE --> Providence (108), St. John's (132), USF (236)

2006-2007:
BE RPI conference rank: 7th
Non-conference record: 155-52
Teams in the RPI Top 50: SEVEN --> Pitt (4), Nova (16), Marquette (21), Georgetown (37), ND (42), Syracuse (46), WVU (48)
Teams outside the RPI Top 100: FIVE --> Seton Hall (112), Cincinatti (140), St. John's (147), USF (166), Rutgers (185)

Notes: Obviously the BE is down compared to last year. The overall non-conference record isn't that different, but some teams must have played an easier OOC schedule than in previous years (UConn is one team that definitely did). The bottom of the league is far weaker this year than it was last year (5 RPI sub-100 teams as compared to only 3 last year). And the BE had 4 top-20 RPI teams last year, and only 2 this year.

[CO_Hoya]

For some speculation, look at RPIForecast.com (the author posted here at some point).

I believe he uses Sagarin's data to predict wins/loses. Anyway, he predicts G'town will end at 20-9 (10-6) with an RPI of 33, and an SOS of 28.

[RockawayHoya]

Hoyas are up from 39th to 36th in the RPI (not counting the likely Oregon loss tonight) after the win vs. St. John's.

BE has now passed the Big 12 in conference RPI and is now 6th.

[DoubleOhHoya]

rockawayhoya said:

Hoyas are up from 39th to 36th in the RPI (not counting the likely Oregon loss tonight) after the win vs. St. John's.

BE has now passed the Big 12 in conference RPI and is now 6th.

The damn Duke loss dropped us two slots - we were at 34 before the end of that game. I hate that I have to roote for those guys.

[RockawayHoya]

RPI/SOS moves up from 37/60 to 32/52 after the road win at Louisville. More detailed comparison to come tomorrow after Pomeroy has updated all numbers.

[RockawayHoya]

Overall record (prior to NCAA): 21-9 (10-6 BE)
RPI: 37
SOS: 63
OOC Record: 9-2
OOC RPI: 71
OOC SOS: 214
Road/Neutral record: 10-7
Vs. RPI Top-50: 5-7
Vs. RPI Top-100: 10-8
Vs. RPI 100+: 11-1

2006-2007 (including games through yesterday)
Overall record: 17-5 (7-2 BE)
RPI: 32
SOS: 52
OOC Record: 10-3
OOC RPI: 53
OOC SOS: 105
Road/Neutral record: 7-2
Vs. RPI Top-50: 2-4
Vs. RPI Top-100: 6-5
Vs. RPI 100+: 11-0

Notes: OOC RPI is holding steady although overall OOC SOS has gone down a bit since the last update. Still a lackluster profile against the Top-50, although we will get several chances down the stretch. Old Dominion, who handed us our "worst loss," now has an RPI of 62. No other Georgetown loss has come at the hands of an opponent with an RPI of worse than 18.

2005-2006:
BE RPI conference rank: 2nd
Non-conference record: 148-43
Teams in the RPI Top 50: EIGHT - Nova (2), UConn (3), Pitt (11), Syracuse (17), Marquette (31), WVU (35), Georgetown (37), Cincinatti (40)
Teams outside the RPI Top 100: THREE - Providence (108), St. John's (132), USF (236)

2006-2007:
BE RPI conference rank: 6th
Non-conference record: 157-52
Teams in the RPI Top 50: SEVEN - Pitt (3), Villanova (18), Marquette (19), Georgetown (32), Notre Dame (45), West Virginia (47), Providence (49)
Teams outside the RPI Top 100: FIVE - Seton Hall (120), St. John's (136), Cincinatti (150), USF (155), Rutgers (183)

Notes: BE has moved up slightly ahead of the Big 12 for 6th in conference RPI, and is now trying to catch the Missouri Valley for 5th. The number of teams in the RPI top-50 and outside of the top-100 have stayed constant. A number of BE teams play OOC games in the upcoming week or two so these numbers could change pretty soon.

[RockawayHoya]

Our RPI/SOS rises again from 32/52 to 27/42 after the big win at home vs. Marquette.

[BurleithBeast]

The WVU win over UCLA will certainly help, too, come Monday (regardless of what happens).

[lichoya68]

'regrdlees of what happens " come on if we win i thinks that ll be lots better lots better go hoyas g o big easy wowwoowoowow alone in second with only two losses KEEP IT UP ROY AND JEFF FOR PRES AND VICE PRES EITHER WYA GO HOYAS BEAT THE ERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRS

[rpiforecast]

FYI,

I added a new feature to RPIForecast.com. I am now breaking down the end-of-season RPI forecasts by different end-of-season Records. Just click on any team's name on the main page to see the breakdowns. Here is what it looks like for Georgetown through yesterday's games:

Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-5	11.6	3.49%
23-6	16.2	17.20%
22-7	22.3	30.80%
21-8	28.8	28.65%
20-9	36.4	14.46%
19-10	44.8	4.59%
18-11	55.8	0.77%
17-12	70.0	0.03%

This is all done using the 10,000 simulations.

Here is a link to the page itself:

www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Georgetown.html

[KHoyaNYC]

interesting. thanks for that.

[hoyarooter]

Just a minute. I'm not suggesting we are going to run the table, but how could that be a less likely event than our losing five more games? I guess those percentages were based on pre-Marquette and would now change, but still, that seems ridiculous.

[RockawayHoya]

BE is now 5th in conference RPI after moving ahead of the Missouri Valley over the weekend.

[rpiforecast]

hoyarooter said:

Just a minute. I'm not suggesting we are going to run the table, but how could that be a less likely event than our losing five more games? I guess those percentages were based on pre-Marquette and would now change, but still, that seems ridiculous.

That was before the game last night. Click on the link for the daily update.

[guhoyasfan36]

Good stuff...very interesting. Thanks rpiforecaster.

[HealyHoya]

interesting tool.

[rpiforecast]

my pleasure.

[Deleted]

I don't think I could ever figure this RPI stuff out. I'm not sure how the numbers work, but as of this moment, we have a better SOS (38 vs. 51) than BYU, a slightly (albeit barely) better record than BYU (18-5 vs. 18-6), and - somehow - a slightly worse RPI (26 vs. 23). They have good wins over solid RPI teams UNLV and Air Force, but don't all of those numbers get factored in to the SOS and everything else that goes into the RPI number?

Seems to me that if we have a better record against a better schedule, we should have a better ranking. Or is that too simplistic?

It's not something that'll keep me up at night worrying, but it did catch my eye...anyone have a deeper insight?

[TrueHoyaBlue]

That's the way the old RPI worked (and under the old RPI-formula, the Hoyas would be ranked 20th right now).

The shift is in road wins and home losses. Under the new formula, home wins count as .6 wins, and road wins count as 1.4 wins. Conversely, road losses count as 0.6 losses ins and and home losses count as 1.4 losses

While the Hoyas have run up a great road record (and will probably be rewarded by the selection committee for this), the three home losses count as 4.2 losses -- or the equivalent of 7 road losses.

Essentially, for two teams with the same record, having more home losses and road wins means a regression toward .500 (versus that of a team whose losses all came on the road).

[Deleted]

Thanks for the clarity. Makes sense.

I guess I assumed that stuff like that was all factored into the SOS numbers...