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Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 17, 2007 1:25:08 GMT -5
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 17, 2007 2:05:17 GMT -5
They are number 15 in Pomeroy as well...not particularly shocking that those two move in sync quite often.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jan 17, 2007 6:46:05 GMT -5
ridiculous. we're 11th in our own conference but these clowns put us 15th overall. someone has been hitting the bottle a little too much.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2007 8:53:02 GMT -5
Vegas is smart. Don't forget that.
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HealyHoya
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Post by HealyHoya on Jan 17, 2007 12:34:12 GMT -5
That's not ridiculous...Georgetown-Duke (17), Georgetown-UMCP (16) on a neutral site are toss-ups. Vegas rankings are hardcore stats based...as SF says, they'll track other stats based rankings closely as they do Pomeroy.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jan 17, 2007 13:17:08 GMT -5
oregon 20th isn't ridiculous? it's a garbage poll based on that alone. stats don't always translate to the floor, which is obvious in our case. i'd rather have a team that is 14-2 with ugly stats than the 11-5 team we are now. all those numbers look pretty, but they don't mean crap once the ball goes up. if i never hear this 'pomeroy' mentioned again it will be too soon.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Jan 17, 2007 13:22:03 GMT -5
if i never hear this 'pomeroy' mentioned again it will be too soon. you just attacked SFHoya's mancrush. prepare to be lambasted.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 17, 2007 13:32:51 GMT -5
oregon 20th isn't ridiculous? it's a garbage poll based on that alone. stats don't always translate to the floor, which is obvious in our case. i'd rather have a team that is 14-2 with ugly stats than the 11-5 team we are now. all those numbers look pretty, but they don't mean crap once the ball goes up. if i never hear this 'pomeroy' mentioned again it will be too soon. The reason why Pomeroy is important is because systems like his, Jeff Sagarin's and the ultimately more complex models Vegas uses are better PREDICTORs than polls, current records or any Joe Schmoe on the street. We've still got 13 BE games and at least two postseason games, and it's good news that Pomeroy loves us, Vegas loves us and Sagarin likes us. It's a good, fact-driven reason to think we're going to finish strong even without improvement factored in. Now, there's also some good reason to believe we're worse than our ranking. Our W/L record is worse than expected based on our stats (about 1 more loss than expected). That could just be the differentiation of competition, bad luck to have a bad day versus teams just good enough to beat us, or it could be a systematic issue that we have (poor guardplay, no go-to guy) that gets hidden in the stats. But either way, there's a lot of good reasons to believe we are actually a Top 20 team. As for Oregon, why can't they be #20? Just because they beat us? Oregon also lost to USC at home, very similar to our loss to Nova. Oregon State played them within 3, Arizona State played them within 5, and Rice took them to OT -- and OSU, Rice and ASU are comparable or worse than Ball State. Georgetown may be a bit overrated by statistical systems because we blow out so many folks and haven't won close games. But then again, blowing out bad teams is a better indicator of winning future games than winning close games.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 17, 2007 13:33:38 GMT -5
if i never hear this 'pomeroy' mentioned again it will be too soon. you just attacked SFHoya's mancrush. prepare to be lambasted. Damn straight. I really don't understand why people are afraid of math. It's why Vegas kills people at the sports books.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2007 13:37:13 GMT -5
oregon 20th isn't ridiculous? it's a garbage poll based on that alone. stats don't always translate to the floor, which is obvious in our case. i'd rather have a team that is 14-2 with ugly stats than the 11-5 team we are now. all those numbers look pretty, but they don't mean crap once the ball goes up. if i never hear this 'pomeroy' mentioned again it will be too soon. This is not an "if the season ended today" thing, this is a projection of future potential, and our stats show that we are (and will be) a better team than the one that has started 11-5, 1-2. And that Oregon is likely to fall back some. Vegas is smart. Follow the money.
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Post by chinatownfanclub on Jan 17, 2007 13:39:15 GMT -5
Wait... people don't win in Vegas? Bookies actually know what they are doing? Numbers matter more than AP writers or Coaches whims? SF you are talking crazy now.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jan 17, 2007 13:44:23 GMT -5
anyone that watched oregon win at arizona knows they are a very good team. what is oregons record? what is our record? what was the score when we played them at home? those are the only numbers that matter. not some pocket protector wearing nerd crunching numbers in his parents basement.
listen, i'm not saying we're a crap team..i'm just saying anyone that thinks we are currently a top 20 team is insane.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2007 13:51:02 GMT -5
anyone that watched oregon win at arizona knows they are a very good team. what is oregons record? what is our record? what was the score when we played them at home? those are the only numbers that matter. not some pocket protector wearing nerd crunching numbers in his parents basement. listen, i'm not saying we're a crap team..i'm just saying anyone that thinks we are currently a top 20 team is insane. That's exactly my point: we're not currently a Top 20 team, but Vegas likes us looking forward. Take a quick look at the schedule: we should be favored to win our next 6 games, meaning Vegas assumes we're going to be 17-5 overall, and 7-2 in the BE. Isn't that a Top 20 team? At that point, we're probably the favorites in at least 4 of our remaining 7 games. That leaves us at 21-8, 11-5. Top 20 material indeed. That's the team Vegas is thinking about when they rank us.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Jan 17, 2007 13:54:38 GMT -5
The thing is, there's a difference between being a top 20 team, and being able/likely to run off six victories against NCAA-tournament competition.
Not sure how much style of play and other things account for it, but you could say we've got better pieces (players, coaching, style of play) than a lot of teams that may be ahead of us at the moment.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jan 17, 2007 14:03:26 GMT -5
if we win our next 6, i'm right there with you cam...i will be singing the praises of pomeroy. this kind of reminds me of 'war games'! does that make SF mathew broderick? ??
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HealyHoya
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Post by HealyHoya on Jan 17, 2007 14:49:16 GMT -5
those are the only numbers that matter. not some pocket protector wearing nerd crunching numbers in his parents basement. Well, I have never worn a pocket protector, my parents don't have a basement and all the guys in my Magic The Gathering club say I'm cool...but I'd humbly suggest that the score of the Hoyas-Ducks game isn't the "only" number that matters. That number meant that at the time we played Oregon, they were a better team. Pomeroy, Sagarin, Vegas and others provide a useful tool by which we can compare apples and oranges, as it were. Who's more impressive right now? The best mid-major team, one of the top three teams in the Big East conference or one of the top five teams in the Pac-10? How would you determine it? RPI? Subjective argument? Sagarin? Pomeroy? Vegas odds?
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Jan 17, 2007 15:05:50 GMT -5
How would you determine it? RPI? Subjective argument? Sagarin? Pomeroy? Vegas odds? Duh! 12-sided dice, of course!
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 17, 2007 15:13:25 GMT -5
Everyone lay off HoyaFanny. It's not his fault that he had a traumatic experience when he was younger involving a slide rule, the area under a curve and the number 26.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jan 17, 2007 15:31:33 GMT -5
as of early this week vegas and pomeroy have us at 15, sagarin at 37, and our rpi is 54. so i guess we just endorse the one that has us the lowest because it gives us that nice fuzzy feeling inside? i'm for the here and now and not thinking of the best case scenario 4 weeks down the road. it is silly to rank teams based on assumptions on how they are going to play in the future. case in point, our team being ranked 8th preseason. you can't predict the outcome when it involves 18 - 22 year old kids.
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HoyaFanNY
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Post by HoyaFanNY on Jan 17, 2007 15:33:25 GMT -5
tbird, it was a protractor, not a slide rule...and please...i'd rather not discuss it.
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