24-25 Big East Discussion

[prhoya]

Nov 25, 2024 3:29:38 GMT -5 dense said:

People are way overrating DePaul. They haven't played anyone and all their games have been at home. Southern Indiana had them beat first game.

GU played KenPom’s #338 and DePaul played #339 N. Illinois, both at home. Compare this box score to what we witnessed on Saturday:

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401715461

The minutes distribution was perfect vs a cupcake.

Do we even shoot 52% if left open? And that’s with Rivera, their best scorer, going 0-4 from 3.

To be clear, I’m not way overrating DePaul. I don’t think they can sustain that % in the BE. But, it looks like a different DePaul to what we’ve seen for years. It’s a new coach with a very obvious plan on how to get better (and look better) quickly. How long does it last? Who knows, but it’s a good start.

[professorhoya]

Mediocre Kyle Neptune loses to Maryland.

And Rick Pitino blows it again in a close game.

[EtomicB]

Nov 25, 2024 8:29:48 GMT -5 prhoya said:

Nov 25, 2024 3:29:38 GMT -5 dense said:

People are way overrating DePaul. They haven't played anyone and all their games have been at home. Southern Indiana had them beat first game.

GU played KenPom’s #338 and DePaul played #339 N. Illinois, both at home. Compare this box score to what we witnessed on Saturday:

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401715461

The minutes distribution was perfect vs a cupcake.

Do we even shoot 52% if left open? And that’s with Rivera, their best scorer, going 0-4 from 3.

To be clear, I’m not way overrating DePaul. I don’t think they can sustain that % in the BE. But, it looks like a different DePaul to what we’ve seen for years. It’s a new coach with a very obvious plan on how to get better (and look better) quickly. How long does it last? Who knows, but it’s a good start.

This is it for me as well..

Folks were clowning DePaul's roster during the portal season since they were getting so many MM players but their staff stocked the team with skilled offensive players and so far it's worked out for them.

They'll be exposed defensively over the next couple of weeks as their schedule ramps up, I also expect the shooting percentage to drop as well but I'll be surprised if they're not still generating good looks on offense...

[traversb]

It what is probably the worst Big East ever we are now the lowest rated KenPom conference team. I don’t think we end up there but I’m also not completely confident we don’t.

[bostonfan]

Nov 24, 2024 13:27:19 GMT -5 SSHoya said:

Georgia upsets SJU 66-63. SJU 2/19 from 3, Georgia had as many FGs as TOs, 24 TOs, and had 3 starters foul out. Go figure.

No doubt St John's was hoping to win those two games against Baylor and Georgia, but those were both very high level, athletic games. Those are the types of games that get a team ready for a tough conference schedule. St John's is going to give a lot of people a hard time this year.

My biggest concern about St John's as they go through the season, is just the ability to stay healthy. The way they play, extremely active and physical, tends to lead to some injuries over the course of the season. I am not a St John's fan, but they are a good team this year.

[EtomicB]

[conshyhoya]

Nov 24, 2024 23:24:56 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Nov 24, 2024 22:42:52 GMT -5 conshyhoya said:

They are certainly better than last year but calling them legit when they somehow have a worse SOS than us and almost lost 2 of those games seems like a stretch at this point. Now once they play some real teams if they win like they are that is a different story.

After their first game, they’ve won the rest safely.

I think what folks mean by legit is that they’re no longer an automatic walkover. They’re still a long ways from being in the middle of the pack..

I watched the entire Eastern Illinois game and they were down late in the second.  

I agree they won't be a walkover. They are probably at least as good as they were in 2021 season. With the BE being a little weaker this year they may even be better but like you said far from mid-pack. 

[conshyhoya]

Nov 25, 2024 8:58:18 GMT -5 bostonfan said:

Nov 24, 2024 13:27:19 GMT -5 SSHoya said:

Georgia upsets SJU 66-63. SJU 2/19 from 3, Georgia had as many FGs as TOs, 24 TOs, and had 3 starters foul out. Go figure.

No doubt St John's was hoping to win those two games against Baylor and Georgia, but those were both very high level, athletic games. Those are the types of games that get a team ready for a tough conference schedule. St John's is going to give a lot of people a hard time this year.

My biggest concern about St John's as they go through the season, is just the ability to stay healthy. The way they play, extremely active and physical, tends to lead to some injuries over the course of the season. I am not a St John's fan, but they are a good team this year.

I think they will be good but these two games shows they aren't quite up there with the top tier of the BE, UConn and Marquette. That second tier (Johnnies, Xavier, Creighton and maybe even Providence) should all be fighting it out for who gets the other 2 or 3 NCAA bids.

[95hoya]

Dixon vs Queen was a fun watch. It’s too early on DePaul but people aren’t going to be happy if they surpass us in one offseason. But they did about as well as they could with the transfer portal, they aren’t going to attract proven, high quality power conference transfers.

[jwp91]

Nov 25, 2024 8:55:29 GMT -5 traversb said:

It what is probably the worst Big East ever we are now the lowest rated KenPom conference team. I don’t think we end up there but I’m also not completely confident we don’t.

We are also the lowest ranked Evan Miya team by a good margin.

If you start looking at our effective field goal % on offense vs. our effective field goal percentage on defense relative to our conference mates, it portends future trouble.

Another interesting but concerning statistic relates to 'kill shots' which are 10-0 runs. As the name implies kill shots put the game outcome in jeopardy. The Hoyas have generated the fewest kill shots in the conference - 3. The Hoyas have also tied for the most kill shots conceded with 3.

The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.

[SFHoya99]

Nov 25, 2024 8:52:37 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Nov 25, 2024 8:29:48 GMT -5 prhoya said:

GU played KenPom’s #338 and DePaul played #339 N. Illinois, both at home. Compare this box score to what we witnessed on Saturday:

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401715461

The minutes distribution was perfect vs a cupcake.

Do we even shoot 52% if left open? And that’s with Rivera, their best scorer, going 0-4 from 3.

To be clear, I’m not way overrating DePaul. I don’t think they can sustain that % in the BE. But, it looks like a different DePaul to what we’ve seen for years. It’s a new coach with a very obvious plan on how to get better (and look better) quickly. How long does it last? Who knows, but it’s a good start.

This is it for me as well..

Folks were clowning DePaul's roster during the portal season since they were getting so many MM players but their staff stocked the team with skilled offensive players and so far it's worked out for them.

They'll be exposed defensively over the next couple of weeks as their schedule ramps up, I also expect the shooting percentage to drop as well but I'll be surprised if they're not still generating good looks on offense...

No one was clowning anything. I think the vast majority of people said that they were better but that the strategy may backfire when playing more athletic teams. Likewise, I don't know if the number of veteran players plus the lack of Chicago connections means that it projects to further improvement more in the future (though they do have more underclassmen than I thought). We'll also see if they can financially retain some of the younger guys given NIL.

Maybe, maybe not on basically every point.

I don't know why people have to build up strawmen to try and make themselves look persecuted, but it's an epidemic on message boards.

[EtomicB]

Nov 25, 2024 11:37:36 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Nov 25, 2024 8:52:37 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

This is it for me as well..

Folks were clowning DePaul's roster during the portal season since they were getting so many MM players but their staff stocked the team with skilled offensive players and so far it's worked out for them.

They'll be exposed defensively over the next couple of weeks as their schedule ramps up, I also expect the shooting percentage to drop as well but I'll be surprised if they're not still generating good looks on offense...

No one was clowning anything. I think the vast majority of people said that they were better but that the strategy may backfire when playing more athletic teams. Likewise, I don't know if the number of veteran players plus the lack of Chicago connections means that it projects to further improvement more in the future (though they do have more underclassmen than I thought). We'll also see if they can financially retain some of the younger guys given NIL.

Maybe, maybe not on basically every point.

I don't know why people have to build up strawmen to try and make themselves look persecuted, but it's an epidemic on message boards.

You're referencing something different in my view.

When players like Jacob Meyers, Troy Diamico, David Thomas, Conor Enright etc.. were signing the Field of 68 guys and other pundits were not enthusiastic, to say the least. Nor did they perk up with CJ Gunn(IU) or Layden Blocker(Ark).

The consensus from most is that they were in for another long year. That's my point which isn't me setting up a strawman.

[EtomicB]

As a fan which team would you prefer? I'm team offense for sure...

[dense]

Nov 25, 2024 8:29:48 GMT -5 prhoya said:

Nov 25, 2024 3:29:38 GMT -5 dense said:

People are way overrating DePaul. They haven't played anyone and all their games have been at home. Southern Indiana had them beat first game.

GU played KenPom’s #338 and DePaul played #339 N. Illinois, both at home. Compare this box score to what we witnessed on Saturday:

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401715461

The minutes distribution was perfect vs a cupcake.

Do we even shoot 52% if left open? And that’s with Rivera, their best scorer, going 0-4 from 3.

To be clear, I’m not way overrating DePaul. I don’t think they can sustain that % in the BE. But, it looks like a different DePaul to what we’ve seen for years. It’s a new coach with a very obvious plan on how to get better (and look better) quickly. How long does it last? Who knows, but it’s a good start.

Not a very good analysis because the problem with DePaul is that they can't really stop anyone at the rim really. Shooting percentages aside they play a style that if they don't hit 3s they won't win games against high major comp.
Their best win Duquesne just lost on a neutral floor to Hampton.

[hoyasaxa2003]

With regard to DePaul, I think the summary of what everybody has said is the following: (1) DePaul will be better than they've been the last several years, and (2) it's way too early to know how much better they will be.

DePaul may be a good shooting team and likely will shoot threes much better than Georgetown, but the best team three point shooting percentage ever was 45.1% (2012, North Colorado), and in many seasons it's lower than that by a good bit. Right now, DePaul is the 18th best three point shooting team at 41.0%. For perspective, LAST YEAR no teams shot that well on the season--Kentucky was #1 at 40.9%. Will DePaul be a good three point shooting team? Maybe. Are they going to be top 10? I highly doubt that once they hit league play.

Other than the obvious (DePaul will be better than they have been), I think it is hard to say much else about them yet.

[prhoya]

Nov 25, 2024 14:00:13 GMT -5 dense said:

Nov 25, 2024 8:29:48 GMT -5 prhoya said:

GU played KenPom’s #338 and DePaul played #339 N. Illinois, both at home. Compare this box score to what we witnessed on Saturday:

www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401715461

The minutes distribution was perfect vs a cupcake.

Do we even shoot 52% if left open? And that’s with Rivera, their best scorer, going 0-4 from 3.

To be clear, I’m not way overrating DePaul. I don’t think they can sustain that % in the BE. But, it looks like a different DePaul to what we’ve seen for years. It’s a new coach with a very obvious plan on how to get better (and look better) quickly. How long does it last? Who knows, but it’s a good start.

Not a very good analysis because the problem with DePaul is that they can't really stop anyone at the rim really. Shooting percentages aside they play a style that if they don't hit 3s they won't win games against high major comp.
Their best win Duquesne just lost on a neutral floor to Hampton.

Ha! My analysis didn't cover defense purposely because it's not their coach's strategy in Year 1. What's important at the end is Ws! Holtman has chosen to focus on offense (3s vs 2s). We'll see if it works for DePaul to get out of BE's bottom. As I said, "Who knows, but it’s a good start" for "a different DePaul to what we've seen for years."

[jwp91]

Nov 25, 2024 15:06:05 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

With regard to DePaul, I think the summary of what everybody has said is the following: (1) DePaul will be better than they've been the last several years, and (2) it's way too early to know how much better they will be.

DePaul may be a good shooting team and likely will shoot threes much better than Georgetown, but the best team three point shooting percentage ever was 45.1% (2012, North Colorado), and in many seasons it's lower than that by a good bit. Right now, DePaul is the 18th best three point shooting team at 41.0%. For perspective, LAST YEAR no teams shot that well on the season--Kentucky was #1 at 40.9%. Will DePaul be a good three point shooting team? Maybe. Are they going to be top 10? I highly doubt that once they hit league play.

Other than the obvious (DePaul will be better than they have been), I think it is hard to say much else about them yet.

I think the only part you missed is that with our shooting woes, that if they are making 3s, we will have a problem.

[SFHoya99]

Nov 25, 2024 11:15:17 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

We are also the lowest ranked Evan Miya team by a good margin.

Miya has a lot of black boxes that don't make a ton of sense. Our and DePaul's efficiency margins on KenPom are very similar ... it doesn't make a lot of sense that a similar system grades them substantially differently.

They did blow out Northern Illinois, Mercer, Prairie View A&M and Dusquesne, but also almost lost to Southern Indiana and only beat a bad Eastern Illinois team by 9.

They've definitely played better than us, but the best team they've played is #244, and only two teams below 300. I just really don't get how the two systems are so out of connection.

I think Pomeroy does cap some blowouts but not by a ton, IIRC. It just seems a strong emphasis on blowouts against bad teams. Which is better than not, but also I'm not sure it justifies them being that far ahead of us.

[professorhoya]

Nov 25, 2024 15:06:05 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

With regard to DePaul, I think the summary of what everybody has said is the following: (1) DePaul will be better than they've been the last several years, and (2) it's way too early to know how much better they will be.

DePaul may be a good shooting team and likely will shoot threes much better than Georgetown, but the best team three point shooting percentage ever was 45.1% (2012, North Colorado), and in many seasons it's lower than that by a good bit. Right now, DePaul is the 18th best three point shooting team at 41.0%. For perspective, LAST YEAR no teams shot that well on the season--Kentucky was #1 at 40.9%. Will DePaul be a good three point shooting team? Maybe. Are they going to be top 10? I highly doubt that once they hit league play.

Other than the obvious (DePaul will be better than they have been), I think it is hard to say much else about them yet.

I think they can beat Mediocre Kyle Neptune and Villanova

[jwp91]

Nov 25, 2024 15:37:07 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Nov 25, 2024 11:15:17 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

We are also the lowest ranked Evan Miya team by a good margin.

Miya has a lot of black boxes that don't make a ton of sense. Our and DePaul's efficiency margins on KenPom are very similar ... it doesn't make a lot of sense that a similar system grades them substantially differently.

They did blow out Northern Illinois, Mercer, Prairie View A&M and Dusquesne, but also almost lost to Southern Indiana and only beat a bad Eastern Illinois team by 9.

They've definitely played better than us, but the best team they've played is #244, and only two teams below 300. I just really don't get how the two systems are so out of connection.

I think Pomeroy does cap some blowouts but not by a ton, IIRC. It just seems a strong emphasis on blowouts against bad teams. Which is better than not, but also I'm not sure it justifies them being that far ahead of us.

Agree on the critiques but the models agree on the weakest team in the conference to date.