So I was thinking - what's the best case scenario for this team? For what it's worth, I think this is extremely unlikely, and I think winning any further games will be hard.
But, this is, as I see it the best case scenario for this team (and Ewing) that is within the realm of reason, and without stretching (for example, while possible, I think predicting Georgetown will beat Creighton away or Connecticut at all is silly). The number in parentheses is the odds of winning, as projected by KenPom as of today (as an side, KenPom projects us as 2-18). You will note that I did not follow the KenPom numbers exactly. For example, even though we are only 8% at St. Johns away, I think our doing fairly well against St. John's in the Ewing era (compared to other teams, at least), plus St. John's own struggles makes the game winnable, even if unlikely. Similarly, I just do not see us beating Providence at home. A home court advantage accounts for most of the 16% chance against them, and I just don't see it as a big factor.
- St. John's Away (8%): Win, 2-9 record.
- Creighton Home (11%): Loss, 2-10 record.
- Connecticut Home (6%): Loss, 2-11 record.
- Providence Away (6%): Loss, 2-12 record.
- Marquette Home (9%): Loss, 2-13 record.
- Seton Hall Away (10%): Win, 2-14 record.
- Butler Away (16%): Win, 3-14 record.
- St. John's Home (21%): Win, 4-14 record.
- Providence Home (16%): Loss, 4-15
- Creighton Away (3%): Loss, 4-16
BET First Round (Seton Hall or Villanova): Win, 5-16
BET Second Round, Loss, 5-17.
I think the odds of this are very, very low. For example, using the KenPom odds, the likelihood of the above outcome happening would be approximately 10-11% (I estimate the odds at beating Seton Hall or Villanova at MSG to be about 10%).
The real question is whether the 5-17 scenario would be enough for someone like Jack DeGioia to say that Ewing has made late-season improvements, and thus, deserves one more shot.