DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Oct 31, 2024 4:04:46 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Oct 31, 2024 6:16:22 GMT -5
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hoyajinx
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Post by hoyajinx on Oct 31, 2024 7:25:52 GMT -5
I have seen numerous articles like the one below emphasizing how Trump’s odds of winning the election are improving because of the moves in betting markets. It should go without saying, but apparently it needs to be said, that betting odds are not the same as odds of winning. That’s like saying in a college basketball game, the actual odds of a team winning are influenced by the betting odds on the game. The odds of a team winning or losing do not change simply because bettors think one team or another is more likely. That defies logic and reality. Sure, Trump may win, but it’s not because bettors think he will. www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/31/presidential-election-odds-2024-polls-betting/75628466007/ |
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Oct 31, 2024 11:25:24 GMT -5
I have seen numerous articles like the one below emphasizing how Trump’s odds of winning the election are improving because of the moves in betting markets. It should go without saying, but apparently it needs to be said, that betting odds are not the same as odds of winning. That’s like saying in a college basketball game, the actual odds of a team winning are influenced by the betting odds on the game. The odds of a team winning or losing do not change simply because bettors think one team or another is more likely. That defies logic and reality. Sure, Trump may win, but it’s not because bettors think he will. www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/31/presidential-election-odds-2024-polls-betting/75628466007/Zero validity whatsoever. Over the last three months, four accounts on a popular gambling site have placed thousands of bets totalling more than $50 million on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election next week. The bets, placed on prediction platform Polymarket, appear to have skewed the odds massively in Trump’s favour on the site, with the total figure representing roughly 2 per cent of all bets placed on the 2024 elections.
The four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie – have been traced back to a single French national with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background”, according to a statement from Polymarket. The betting platform said there was no evidence that the trader had placed the bets to deliberately boost Trump’s odds, though the incident has proved how easy it is for one wealthy individual to manipulate the market.
www.the-independent.com/tech/polymarket-trump-betting-odds-latest-b2638206.html |
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by SSHoya on Oct 31, 2024 14:58:23 GMT -5
Could be meaningless this early but you'd rather be in this early lead than not, obviously. Polls show Harris with big early-vote lead — despite GOP gains Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be banking a significant lead heading into Election Day, potentially bigger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 — for whatever that’s worth. Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with between a 19- and a 29-point advantage among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/ |
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Oct 31, 2024 17:43:22 GMT -5
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hoya9797
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Post by hoya9797 on Oct 31, 2024 19:19:34 GMT -5
It’s very important to remember that Trump is one of the dumbest people on earth. There are lots of reasons to keep him out of the WH but the fact that he’s objectively a moron has to be near the top of the list.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Oct 31, 2024 19:44:48 GMT -5
Undecided voter: “I still need to learn more about Kamala Harris and her policies.” [insert “rolling eyes emoji” here.] |
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by SSHoya on Nov 1, 2024 6:15:39 GMT -5
HoyaTalk "Republicans", you guys in favor? Yes, no, maybe? Let us know! Trump suggests ‘war hawk’ Liz Cheney should have guns ‘trained on her face’ GLENDALE, Ariz. — Former president Donald Trump appeared to suggest on Thursday that former congresswoman and longtime Trump critic Liz Cheney should be subjected to gunfire as he called her a “war hawk,” saying during a live event with Tucker Carlson, “Let’s see how she feels about it,” with guns “trained on her face” as a target. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/01/liz-cheney-trump-guns-shooting/ |
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Nov 1, 2024 8:06:52 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Nov 1, 2024 9:24:11 GMT -5
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CTHoya08
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Bring back Izzo!
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Post by CTHoya08 on Nov 1, 2024 10:00:17 GMT -5
It’s very important to remember that Trump is one of the dumbest people on earth. There are lots of reasons to keep him out of the WH but the fact that he’s objectively a moron has to be near the top of the list. This is what I keep coming back to. Even if you don't think his re-election will "end democracy." Even if you don't think his policy agenda is terrible. The man is mentally and physically deteriorating before our eyes. How can anyone look at him, listen to him, and think "This man is the right man for the most important job in the world"? |
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by SSHoya on Nov 1, 2024 10:06:36 GMT -5
It’s very important to remember that Trump is one of the dumbest people on earth. There are lots of reasons to keep him out of the WH but the fact that he’s objectively a moron has to be near the top of the list. This is what I keep coming back to. Even if you don't think his re-election will "end democracy." Even if you don't think his policy agenda is terrible. The man is mentally and physically deteriorating before our eyes. How can anyone look at him, listen to him, and think "This man is the right man for the most important job in the world"? My speculation is that the MAGA GOP is fully aware of Demented Donnie's cognitive and physical decline but they have Hillbilly Vance waiting in the wings should they win the election. |
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CTHoya08
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Bring back Izzo!
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Post by CTHoya08 on Nov 1, 2024 10:18:59 GMT -5
For sure. I was really referring to the supposedly "undecided" voters.
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
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Post by SSHoya on Nov 1, 2024 10:21:00 GMT -5
For sure. I was really referring to the supposedly "undecided" voters. Got it. Undecided = low information voters. |
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hoyajinx
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Post by hoyajinx on Nov 1, 2024 10:27:42 GMT -5
For sure. I was really referring to the supposedly "undecided" voters. Got it. Undecided = low information voters. At some point, you have to start to wonder if the “undecided” voter uses the Harris “lack of policy” or “Trump good for economy” obviously baseless excuses as a cover for some of their uncomfortable beliefs that they don’t want to acknowledge about themselves regarding either women or people of color, or possibly both. |
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Nov 1, 2024 11:48:19 GMT -5
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
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Post by SSHoya on Nov 1, 2024 14:18:28 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Nov 1, 2024 20:14:44 GMT -5
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DanMcQ
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Posts: 32,509
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Post by DanMcQ on Nov 1, 2024 20:24:09 GMT -5
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