smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 9, 2021 12:26:28 GMT -5
Letting Blair and Pickett play an extra year comes at the expense of the other players who will only get four years of eligibility. It would be interesting to see how high they could get on various all-time Hoya rankings given five years. Other players on the roster this year will also have five years of eligibility. This is going to mess up recruiting, scholarships, and playing time across the board in college sports for a long time to come. So hard to predict a lineup for next year with all the unknowns, but I certainly hope that we can get a skilled 4 from the transfer market if Pickett leaves. Mutombo is a true 5 according to 247 and obviously so is Q. My way too early projection: If seniors leave: Harris, Aminu, Sibley, transfer, Qudus and a pretty difficult (NIT?) season If seniors return: Harris, Aminu, Blair, Pickett, Q and a pretty solid (tourney?) season with a guard heavy lineup Correct. It's really as simple as that. Your ceiling with Blair, Bile (and to a lesser extent Pickett) returning is the NCAA tournament. If you go with Q, maybe Carey and 11 underclassmen, I think your overall record will be similar to this season...if you're lucky. As for the recruiting class, Aminu is a stud, but beyond him I don't think there's a mortal lock to start among the rest of the incoming frosh even if no seniors come back...and I really like Riley and Beard. Who are our threats from behind the arc next season if Blair leaves? Berger? Carey? Ugggh! Remember the 02/03 Esh team? That's what you'll be watching. One solid post (though Q is way weaker that Sweetney even if you give him a huge edge defensively - and he's really only a good shot-blocker) and one athletic wing (though Riley was a Jr and Aminu is a frosh) surrounded by a lot of extremely young players (that team featured So BoBo, Fr Ashanti and Tony Bethel - frankly a stronger supporting cast than Harris and ?). That team went 6-10 in the BE and was absolutely better though similar in my opinion. I don't think Pat can survive the kind of a season that roster is likely to produce.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Feb 9, 2021 13:20:23 GMT -5
Other players on the roster this year will also have five years of eligibility. This is going to mess up recruiting, scholarships, and playing time across the board in college sports for a long time to come. So hard to predict a lineup for next year with all the unknowns, but I certainly hope that we can get a skilled 4 from the transfer market if Pickett leaves. Mutombo is a true 5 according to 247 and obviously so is Q. My way too early projection: If seniors leave: Harris, Aminu, Sibley, transfer, Qudus and a pretty difficult (NIT?) season If seniors return: Harris, Aminu, Blair, Pickett, Q and a pretty solid (tourney?) season with a guard heavy lineup Correct. It's really as simple as that. Your ceiling with Blair, Bile (and to a lesser extent Pickett) returning is the NCAA tournament. If you go with Q, maybe Carey and 11 underclassmen, I think your overall record will be similar to this season...if you're lucky. As for the recruiting class, Aminu is a stud, but beyond him I don't think there's a mortal lock to start among the rest of the incoming frosh even if no seniors come back...and I really like Riley and Beard. Who are our threats from behind the arc next season if Blair leaves? Berger? Carey? Ugggh! Remember the 02/03 Esh team? That's what you'll be watching. One solid post (though Q is way weaker that Sweetney even if you give him a huge edge defensively - and he's really only a good shot-blocker) and one athletic wing (though Riley was a Jr and Aminu is a frosh) surrounded by a lot of extremely young players (that team featured So BoBo, Fr Ashanti and Tony Bethel - frankly a stronger supporting cast than Harris and ?). That team went 6-10 in the BE and was absolutely better though similar in my opinion. I don't think Pat can survive the kind of a season that roster is likely to produce. Not trying to knock Blair who I like a lot but he's a career sub 35% shooter from 3, that's average at best. Harris has a chance to be as good as Blair from 3 next season, I also believe with experience Berger can become a Fletcher Magee type. Also, the freshman on the 02-03 team went to a sweet 16 & Final 4 fwiw as corrected by HoyaZeke the freshman did not make the FF4 ..
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 9, 2021 13:55:39 GMT -5
Correct. It's really as simple as that. Your ceiling with Blair, Bile (and to a lesser extent Pickett) returning is the NCAA tournament. If you go with Q, maybe Carey and 11 underclassmen, I think your overall record will be similar to this season...if you're lucky. As for the recruiting class, Aminu is a stud, but beyond him I don't think there's a mortal lock to start among the rest of the incoming frosh even if no seniors come back...and I really like Riley and Beard. Who are our threats from behind the arc next season if Blair leaves? Berger? Carey? Ugggh! Remember the 02/03 Esh team? That's what you'll be watching. One solid post (though Q is way weaker that Sweetney even if you give him a huge edge defensively - and he's really only a good shot-blocker) and one athletic wing (though Riley was a Jr and Aminu is a frosh) surrounded by a lot of extremely young players (that team featured So BoBo, Fr Ashanti and Tony Bethel - frankly a stronger supporting cast than Harris and ?). That team went 6-10 in the BE and was absolutely better though similar in my opinion. I don't think Pat can survive the kind of a season that roster is likely to produce. Not trying to knock Blair who I like a lot but he's a career sub 35% shooter from 3, that's average at best. Harris has a chance to be as good as Blair from 3 next season, I also believe with experience Berger can become a Fletcher Magee type. Also, the freshman on the 02-03 team went to a sweet 16 & Final 4 fwiw... The freshmen went to the sweet 16 not the final 4. Esh didn't survive. Even with that info I still agree with Etomic. Smokey you act as if GTown would be the only team losing players. Duke, Watson, Ballack, Champagnie, Jefferson, Mamou, Cale, JRE, Samuels, Gillespie, Scruggs....etc. Nova is always loaded and Zeg will be back but I like our pieces as much as the rest.....
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Feb 9, 2021 14:02:30 GMT -5
Not trying to knock Blair who I like a lot but he's a career sub 35% shooter from 3, that's average at best. Harris has a chance to be as good as Blair from 3 next season, I also believe with experience Berger can become a Fletcher Magee type. Also, the freshman on the 02-03 team went to a sweet 16 & Final 4 fwiw... The freshmen went to the sweet 16 not the final 4. Esh didn't survive. Even with that info I still agree with Etomic. Smokey you act as if GTown would be the only team losing players. Duke, Watson, Ballack, Champagnie, Jefferson, Mamou, Cale, JRE, Samuels, Gillespie, Scruggs....etc. Nova is always loaded and Zeg will be back but I like our pieces as much as the rest..... Great point on the FF4 team. Wishful thinking on my part I guess. My bad... My main point was that we shouldn't write off any kids(teams) too early...
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smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 9, 2021 15:27:58 GMT -5
The freshmen went to the sweet 16 not the final 4. Esh didn't survive. Even with that info I still agree with Etomic. Smokey you act as if GTown would be the only team losing players. Duke, Watson, Ballack, Champagnie, Jefferson, Mamou, Cale, JRE, Samuels, Gillespie, Scruggs....etc. Nova is always loaded and Zeg will be back but I like our pieces as much as the rest..... Great point on the FF4 team. Wishful thinking on my part I guess. My bad... My main point was that we shouldn't write off any kids(teams) too early... No, everybody will lose guys, but I think it’s absurd to think that 12 underclassmen and Q will be remotely as good as this team. And as to Dante shooting 35% from 3 next season? What makes anyone think that’s likely for a little guy who has a lot of trouble finishing at rim (so I’m telling my guys to climb in his shorts) on a team with fewer deep threats to cover than this year? Blair made 49 triples as a frosh and shot 32.2%. Harris has made 10 in half a season and shoots 30.3. It’s absurdly wishful thinking to assume he’ll jump to 35% on a team where he’s being keyed on defensively far more. Blair’s 17.6 per game this season has come with opposing teams game-planning to let ANYBODY else for GU attempt to beat them. I don’t think most on this board appreciate just how good Juggy has been carrying the offensive load for the most wildly inconsistent offensive GU team I can ever remember. On any given night, he is the ONLY player Pat can count on to score the ball. Dante will never get more open looks than he’s had this season. In fact, I’ll bet you any amount you want he doesn’t shoot 35% next season with minimum 40 makes and give you 2-1 odds. And I like Dante...a lot...and exponentially more than anyone else in this current freshman class. I just don’t think most on this board appreciate how tough it’s going to be next season if you replace two four-year impact contributors, the best shooter and the two most versatile players on your team with true freshmen. That’s not a recipe for success when you pull 4 McD AA. When you have 1, hold on to your ass.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 9, 2021 16:52:32 GMT -5
Great point on the FF4 team. Wishful thinking on my part I guess. My bad... My main point was that we shouldn't write off any kids(teams) too early... No, everybody will lose guys, but I think it’s absurd to think that 12 underclassmen and Q will be remotely as good as this team. And as to Dante shooting 35% from 3 next season? What makes anyone think that’s likely for a little guy who has a lot of trouble finishing at rim (so I’m telling my guys to climb in his shorts) on a team with fewer deep threats to cover than this year? Blair made 49 triples as a frosh and shot 32.2%. Harris has made 10 in half a season and shoots 30.3. It’s absurdly wishful thinking to assume he’ll jump to 35% on a team where he’s being keyed on defensively far more. Blair’s 17.6 per game this season has come with opposing teams game-planning to let ANYBODY else for GU attempt to beat them. I don’t think most on this board appreciate just how good Juggy has been carrying the offensive load for the most wildly inconsistent offensive GU team I can ever remember. On any given night, he is the ONLY player Pat can count on to score the ball. Dante will never get more open looks than he’s had this season. In fact, I’ll bet you any amount you want he doesn’t shoot 35% next season with minimum 40 makes and give you 2-1 odds. And I like Dante...a lot...and exponentially more than anyone else in this current freshman class. I just don’t think most on this board appreciate how tough it’s going to be next season if you replace two four-year impact contributors, the best shooter and the two most versatile players on your team with true freshmen. That’s not a recipe for success when you pull 4 McD AA. When you have 1, hold on to your ass. Smokey I don't think they would be as good next year but I believe they would be dancing or close and I believe 22/23 would be FF good. I believe they need to take lumps to reach that level. I believe if the seniors come back we would be sacrificing greatness for a year of okay.... also Blair was thrown to the wolves as a freshman on a team with Marcus/Jesse and not much else. Dante isn't asked to do nearly as much offensively as Juggy was as to do....
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Feb 9, 2021 19:43:45 GMT -5
Great point on the FF4 team. Wishful thinking on my part I guess. My bad... My main point was that we shouldn't write off any kids(teams) too early... No, everybody will lose guys, but I think it’s absurd to think that 12 underclassmen and Q will be remotely as good as this team. And as to Dante shooting 35% from 3 next season? What makes anyone think that’s likely for a little guy who has a lot of trouble finishing at rim (so I’m telling my guys to climb in his shorts) on a team with fewer deep threats to cover than this year? Blair made 49 triples as a frosh and shot 32.2%. Harris has made 10 in half a season and shoots 30.3. It’s absurdly wishful thinking to assume he’ll jump to 35% on a team where he’s being keyed on defensively far more. Blair’s 17.6 per game this season has come with opposing teams game-planning to let ANYBODY else for GU attempt to beat them. I don’t think most on this board appreciate just how good Juggy has been carrying the offensive load for the most wildly inconsistent offensive GU team I can ever remember. On any given night, he is the ONLY player Pat can count on to score the ball. Dante will never get more open looks than he’s had this season. In fact, I’ll bet you any amount you want he doesn’t shoot 35% next season with minimum 40 makes and give you 2-1 odds. And I like Dante...a lot...and exponentially more than anyone else in this current freshman class. I just don’t think most on this board appreciate how tough it’s going to be next season if you replace two four-year impact contributors, the best shooter and the two most versatile players on your team with true freshmen. That’s not a recipe for success when you pull 4 McD AA. When you have 1, hold on to your ass. I never said Harris would shoot 35% next season, I stated that Harris has a chance to be as good as Blair. Btw Blair has never shot 35% himself, that's why I stated he's a sub 35% shooter... As for Harris so far in BE play, he's shooting 34.8% in 23 attempts, more importantly, he has a nice looking jumper so with continued development(physically especially) I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him turn into a legit threat from 3... Again, I'm not trying to knock Blair but I haven't noticed any opponent "game planning" to stop him, he has the highest scoring average but he also shoots it more & plays more than anyone on the team... I get where you're coming from regarding Blair or grad transfers but having next year's team be as good as this team isn't a long term strategy in my opinion...
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Post by bornhoya on Feb 10, 2021 1:06:48 GMT -5
No, everybody will lose guys, but I think it’s absurd to think that 12 underclassmen and Q will be remotely as good as this team. And as to Dante shooting 35% from 3 next season? What makes anyone think that’s likely for a little guy who has a lot of trouble finishing at rim (so I’m telling my guys to climb in his shorts) on a team with fewer deep threats to cover than this year? Blair made 49 triples as a frosh and shot 32.2%. Harris has made 10 in half a season and shoots 30.3. It’s absurdly wishful thinking to assume he’ll jump to 35% on a team where he’s being keyed on defensively far more. Blair’s 17.6 per game this season has come with opposing teams game-planning to let ANYBODY else for GU attempt to beat them. I don’t think most on this board appreciate just how good Juggy has been carrying the offensive load for the most wildly inconsistent offensive GU team I can ever remember. On any given night, he is the ONLY player Pat can count on to score the ball. Dante will never get more open looks than he’s had this season. In fact, I’ll bet you any amount you want he doesn’t shoot 35% next season with minimum 40 makes and give you 2-1 odds. And I like Dante...a lot...and exponentially more than anyone else in this current freshman class. I just don’t think most on this board appreciate how tough it’s going to be next season if you replace two four-year impact contributors, the best shooter and the two most versatile players on your team with true freshmen. That’s not a recipe for success when you pull 4 McD AA. When you have 1, hold on to your ass. I never said Harris would shoot 35% next season, I stated that Harris has a chance to be as good as Blair. Btw Blair has never shot 35% himself, that's why I stated he's a sub 35% shooter... As for Harris so far in BE play, he's shooting 34.8% in 23 attempts, more importantly, he has a nice looking jumper so with continued development(physically especially) I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him turn into a legit threat from 3... Again, I'm not trying to knock Blair but I haven't noticed any opponent "game planning" to stop him, he has the highest scoring average but he also shoots it more & plays more than anyone on the team... I get where you're coming from regarding Blair or grad transfers but having next year's team be as good as this team isn't a long term strategy in my opinion... You didn’t notice it till tonight
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 10, 2021 11:09:19 GMT -5
If Pickett doesn't stay around, I will be worried about our 4 spot. Kobe, Holloway, and Billingsly aren't the most inspiring group. Plus none of those guys can guard a 5 so it takes small-ball lineup out of play.
Would people rather have another year of Bile or go for another grad transfer PF? I'd take good Bile any day but bad Bile can lose games himself.
I would love Blair to stay around but I also don't mind if he's gone. Give those minutes to Berger, Riley, Beard, Aminu. While Berger's current weakness is on the defensive end, he looks like he can make up for it on O and his backcourt mates or Beard, Riley, Harris, and Aminu should be able to help makeup for any deficiencies. You'll have to have a shooter on the floor with those 3 so I expect Berger to get a huge bump in minutes if Blair leaves.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 10, 2021 11:29:56 GMT -5
Letting Blair and Pickett play an extra year comes at the expense of the other players who will only get four years of eligibility. It would be interesting to see how high they could get on various all-time Hoya rankings given five years. Other players on the roster this year will also have five years of eligibility. This is going to mess up recruiting, scholarships, and playing time across the board in college sports for a long time to come. So hard to predict a lineup for next year with all the unknowns, but I certainly hope that we can get a skilled 4 from the transfer market if Pickett leaves. Mutombo is a true 5 according to 247 and obviously so is Q. My way too early projection: If seniors leave: Harris, Aminu, Sibley, transfer, Qudus and a pretty difficult (NIT?) season If seniors return: Harris, Aminu, Blair, Pickett, Q and a pretty solid (tourney?) season with a guard heavy lineup Here is another way to look at this. Which guys would play on a top tier big east team: PG: Starter <Open>, Harris 15 minutes a game, Beard (hopeful 15 a game) SG: Starter <Open>, Berger 15 minutes a game, Riley (hopeful 15 a game) Wing: Aminu (25 minutes), Sibley (10 minutes) SF/PW: Starter (Open), Sibley (15 minutes), Clark (5 minutes) C: Wahab (25 minutes), Mutombo (15 minutes). I am just trying to be realistic of the demand on putting freshman into starting roles so this is more about the current group than the prospective. This also doesn't account for going small and not even playing a center. I think Harris will be a great option by his junior year. I hope beard is a great option by his sophomore year and same thing with Riley. I just think this year we have guys who are getting minutes because there is no one else to fill the slot versus them being ready. I'm thinking between Berger, Riley, Beard we are going to have to cobble together starter minutes unless we get a grad transfer. I think we also need a grad transfer at power forward. I think we can make due with Harris at point cobbled together with Beard but that is far from ideal for next year. Put together another good '22 class and suddenly the talent level matches where we should be. Then we can really tell what the coach has in his tool kit.
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paranoia2
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Post by paranoia2 on Feb 10, 2021 12:06:23 GMT -5
I don’t share the doom and gloom vision for next year. Been a long time since a 5 star player came here. I think Tyler Beard and Jordan are strong players.
Mutombo & Jalin are skilled and Sibley has some talent. I believe Kobe Clark is a winning player. Dante is a warrior.
For a variety of reasons the past 4 years have been very tough. Blair & Pickett deserve respect, credit and admiration. But they have gone through a lot of LOSING. There is a mentality that develops from all that losing.
This team must be Aminu’s next year. The roster in my view will be exciting and tenacious. In college basketball freshmen led teams have had success. .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2021 12:19:44 GMT -5
I don’t share the doom and gloom vision for next year. Been a long time since a 5 star player came here. I think Tyler Beard and Jordan are strong players. Mutombo & Jalin are skilled and Sibley has some talent. I believe Kobe Clark is a winning player. Dante is a warrior. For a variety of reasons the past 4 years have been very tough. Blair & Pickett deserve respect, credit and admiration. But they have gone through a lot of LOSING. There is a mentality that develops from all that losing. This team must be Aminu’s next year. The roster in my view will be exciting and tenacious. In college basketball freshmen led teams have had success. . Why can't it Aminu's team and we still have Blair and Pickett?
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 10, 2021 13:54:06 GMT -5
I don’t share the doom and gloom vision for next year. Been a long time since a 5 star player came here. I think Tyler Beard and Jordan are strong players. Mutombo & Jalin are skilled and Sibley has some talent. I believe Kobe Clark is a winning player. Dante is a warrior. For a variety of reasons the past 4 years have been very tough. Blair & Pickett deserve respect, credit and admiration. But they have gone through a lot of LOSING. There is a mentality that develops from all that losing. This team must be Aminu’s next year. The roster in my view will be exciting and tenacious. In college basketball freshmen led teams have had success. . Why can't it Aminu's team and we still have Blair and Pickett? That's not really the way it works (in any sport). I can't think of an example where a freshman comes in and becomes the leader when fifth year players who have spent all of their time at that institution are still there. Darrel Owens was at Gtown as a senior and Ashanti & Brandon were juniors when that strong class of Roy, Jeff & Jon came thru. That is probably the closest Gtown example but Owens wasn't a four year starter like the current Blair/Pickett group. Its not impossible, I just haven't seen it happen.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Feb 10, 2021 14:22:37 GMT -5
Other players on the roster this year will also have five years of eligibility. This is going to mess up recruiting, scholarships, and playing time across the board in college sports for a long time to come. So hard to predict a lineup for next year with all the unknowns, but I certainly hope that we can get a skilled 4 from the transfer market if Pickett leaves. Mutombo is a true 5 according to 247 and obviously so is Q. My way too early projection: If seniors leave: Harris, Aminu, Sibley, transfer, Qudus and a pretty difficult (NIT?) season If seniors return: Harris, Aminu, Blair, Pickett, Q and a pretty solid (tourney?) season with a guard heavy lineup Here is another way to look at this. Which guys would play on a top tier big east team: PG: Starter <Open>, Harris 15 minutes a game, Beard (hopeful 15 a game) SG: Starter <Open>, Berger 15 minutes a game, Riley (hopeful 15 a game) Wing: Aminu (25 minutes), Sibley (10 minutes) SF/PW: Starter (Open), Sibley (15 minutes), Clark (5 minutes) C: Wahab (25 minutes), Mutombo (15 minutes). I am just trying to be realistic of the demand on putting freshman into starting roles so this is more about the current group than the prospective. This also doesn't account for going small and not even playing a center. I think Harris will be a great option by his junior year. I hope beard is a great option by his sophomore year and same thing with Riley. I just think this year we have guys who are getting minutes because there is no one else to fill the slot versus them being ready. I'm thinking between Berger, Riley, Beard we are going to have to cobble together starter minutes unless we get a grad transfer. I think we also need a grad transfer at power forward. I think we can make due with Harris at point cobbled together with Beard but that is far from ideal for next year. Put together another good '22 class and suddenly the talent level matches where we should be. Then we can really tell what the coach has in his tool kit. Besides D. Harris who else falls into this category? It's probably a good bet that if J. Harris was still on the team then D. Harris would be getting 12-15 per game like he was originally... My problem with the grad route is that we have no idea who it'll be, even after Bile's nice run of games I'd still rather see Sibley or Clark get the time because I know Gtown is in a full rebuild. I also don't think getting in for a year with a grad transfer aided team will solve the long-term issues the program faces... Plus I have issues with taking players in & then dumping them within a year, Holloway signed in June of 2020, Berger in May. Why bring them in at all if they're on the chopping block so quickly?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2021 14:42:07 GMT -5
Why can't it Aminu's team and we still have Blair and Pickett? That's not really the way it works (in any sport). I can't think of an example where a freshman comes in and becomes the leader when fifth year players who have spent all of their time at that institution are still there. Darrel Owens was at Gtown as a senior and Ashanti & Brandon were juniors when that strong class of Roy, Jeff & Jon came thru. That is probably the closest Gtown example but Owens wasn't a four year starter like the current Blair/Pickett group. Its not impossible, I just haven't seen it happen. You forgot all about Iverson, huhn?
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 10, 2021 15:09:20 GMT -5
Here is another way to look at this. Which guys would play on a top tier big east team: PG: Starter <Open>, Harris 15 minutes a game, Beard (hopeful 15 a game) SG: Starter <Open>, Berger 15 minutes a game, Riley (hopeful 15 a game) Wing: Aminu (25 minutes), Sibley (10 minutes) SF/PW: Starter (Open), Sibley (15 minutes), Clark (5 minutes) C: Wahab (25 minutes), Mutombo (15 minutes). I am just trying to be realistic of the demand on putting freshman into starting roles so this is more about the current group than the prospective. This also doesn't account for going small and not even playing a center. I think Harris will be a great option by his junior year. I hope beard is a great option by his sophomore year and same thing with Riley. I just think this year we have guys who are getting minutes because there is no one else to fill the slot versus them being ready. I'm thinking between Berger, Riley, Beard we are going to have to cobble together starter minutes unless we get a grad transfer. I think we also need a grad transfer at power forward. I think we can make due with Harris at point cobbled together with Beard but that is far from ideal for next year. Put together another good '22 class and suddenly the talent level matches where we should be. Then we can really tell what the coach has in his tool kit. Besides D. Harris who else falls into this category? It's probably a good bet that if J. Harris was still on the team then D. Harris would be getting 12-15 per game like he was originally... My problem with the grad route is that we have no idea who it'll be, even after Bile's nice run of games I'd still rather see Sibley or Clark get the time because I know Gtown is in a full rebuild. I also don't think getting in for a year with a grad transfer aided team will solve the long-term issues the program faces... Plus I have issues with taking players in & then dumping them within a year, Holloway signed in June of 2020, Berger in May. Why bring them in at all if they're on the chopping block so quickly? I don't think Tim gets minutes on a top tier big east team, same thing with Clark & Sibley this year. My point is more one that we are really expecting too much from players that should be in development mode. To your last point on Berger & Holloway, I think we just needed bodies at a certain point. With the defections we had to fill five spots of underclassmen we were expecting to contribute this year and the kids we would have recruited to fill those spots were already committed or we were playing catch up and never caught up. Throw in Williams and we were backfilling 6 spots that probably all were going to be in our top 9. It was an impossible task.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 10, 2021 15:11:22 GMT -5
That's not really the way it works (in any sport). I can't think of an example where a freshman comes in and becomes the leader when fifth year players who have spent all of their time at that institution are still there. Darrel Owens was at Gtown as a senior and Ashanti & Brandon were juniors when that strong class of Roy, Jeff & Jon came thru. That is probably the closest Gtown example but Owens wasn't a four year starter like the current Blair/Pickett group. Its not impossible, I just haven't seen it happen. You forgot all about Iverson, huhn? Good point. I did forget even though that was during my time on campus. He was the number one player in the country however and a number one draft pick in two years. That is a lot to put on Aminu's shoulders but from his WCAC freshman year, maybe he is up to the task. I hope so.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 10, 2021 15:20:07 GMT -5
I really don't understand all the doom and gloom about next season. Like I really don't. It should be much better than this year.
First off, Aminu would be the best player whenever he steps foot on the floor. He's much better than anyone on this team. This and since he's effective at getting into the lane and dishing, he can create for himself and others where we don't have anyone who can consistently do that now.
Next, the main development year is in between your freshman and sophomore seasons. I really like what we've seen out of Dante, and Berger has shown that he can be a really effective player next to Aminu. They fit perfectly together. Sibley was always seen as a bit of a project offensively, but he has some basic skills, he just needs a ton of polish and work on those skills. The offseason will be a perfect time to work on all of those and get better. He has shown some plays that just need a lot of polish and I think a lot of work with Coach Crouch over the offseason will help that. Same with Kobe Clark, though to a lesser extent at this point.
I also think people are really overestimating the gap between what we lose and who we bring in. Assuming all seniors leave, I still think we have more than enough pieces. Tyler Beard looks like a really tough PG who can create on both ends and really defend. He's not a great shooter, but man he's an elite athlete. And oh man I don't think I've seen a guy with as much potential as Jordan Riley in years. He has NBA+ athleticism. He hasn't been focused on basketball for a long time and yet, he's an effective (not great) ball handler, who has elite athleticism. He's a better defender than anything we have at the two spot and he can create a bit for himself. He just needs work on that jumper and he can be a beast. It looks ok now, but an offseason of work will just make it even better. I really, really like what we have in these two. I think both can contribute immediately.
And with Pickett and Blair, I think Aminu replaces a ton of what they bring. Aminu is a very good rebounder and defender (better defender than Pickett), who also can shoulder the scoring load on a good team and is a great facilitator. That's legit exactly what they bring. Give Aminu Blair's offensive volume and I think he's putting up better numbers today, let alone with better guys around him. And he's better defensively than Jamorko right now, and I think the team will be able to make up for Jamorko on the glass.
I think this team is tournament or bust. It's fair to say that they won't be elite from Day one, but this team will have its moments early and should get much better as the season goes on. We just have to make sure to not panic on day one. But by BE play, this team will be ready. And if Pickett and Blair are ok with deferring to Aminu day one and playing complementary roles, I'd bring them back. They would have to accept that this is Aminu's team, though. As for Bile, if we get the three-game stretch Bile, absolutely. A perfect vet to have on a young team. Gritty, not demanding, tough, and can hit jumpers If not, he's a net negative on this team, it would be worse next year, so let him go. I don't think we lose a ton with these guys (especially since a growing Berger, Beard and Riley can take Blair's production and Aminu plus growing Sibley I think can take Jamorko's), but if they want to come back, we can take them. Don't guarantee them minutes though. Those will have to be earned.
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,807
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 10, 2021 15:41:41 GMT -5
I don’t share the doom and gloom vision for next year. Been a long time since a 5 star player came here. I think Tyler Beard and Jordan are strong players. Mutombo & Jalin are skilled and Sibley has some talent. I believe Kobe Clark is a winning player. Dante is a warrior. For a variety of reasons the past 4 years have been very tough. Blair & Pickett deserve respect, credit and admiration. But they have gone through a lot of LOSING. There is a mentality that develops from all that losing. This team must be Aminu’s next year. The roster in my view will be exciting and tenacious. In college basketball freshmen led teams have had success. . Why can't it Aminu's team and we still have Blair and Pickett? Obviously you don't understand the ego of a D1 bball player. Aminu would have to come in and be Iverson like to take ownership of the team with 2 seniors around. Even AI didn't have full ownership until soph yr. I remember his 1st yr feeling like it was Don/Othello/AI in that order. At least at the start of the season. Aminu is good but he isn't a Iverson like talent. I am hoping that next season the team belongs to Dante with Q, Aminu and a 3rd player being solid to good.... I believe we really need Dante to make a Kel like leap next year.
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RBHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,120
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Post by RBHoya on Feb 10, 2021 16:42:55 GMT -5
I don’t share the doom and gloom vision for next year. Been a long time since a 5 star player came here. I think Tyler Beard and Jordan are strong players. Mutombo & Jalin are skilled and Sibley has some talent. I believe Kobe Clark is a winning player. Dante is a warrior. For a variety of reasons the past 4 years have been very tough. Blair & Pickett deserve respect, credit and admiration. But they have gone through a lot of LOSING. There is a mentality that develops from all that losing. This team must be Aminu’s next year. The roster in my view will be exciting and tenacious. In college basketball freshmen led teams have had success. . It's really, really hard to win in a high major conference when you're relying heavily on freshmen. There are a few counterexamples through the years, and they tend to be memorable, like the Fab 5 or the Anthony Davis Kentucky team. But those are definitely exceptions and not the rule. Kentucky had the #1 recruiting class last year, Duke had the #3 recruiting class, and if the season ended today neither would be in the tournament. Our 2021 recruiting class isn't going to be nearly as good as those were (and they have HOF coaches!). There's a lot to be excited about in our recruiting class, but to expect them to come in and immediately lead us back to the tournament might be setting yourself up for disappointment--a few of them would have to dramatically outplay their recruiting rankings (which are already pretty solid). I really think that success next year, for us and for everyone, is going to be HEAVILY influenced by what happens with current seniors, ie. which teams are able to retain their own guys for a 5th year, which teams lose their current seniors to graduation/professional opportunities, and which teams are able to poach high level 5th year players from other schools. I don't think the impact of this can be overstated. It may well decide who wins the championship next year, and it will certainly weigh heavily on which teams are competitive. There are going to be a LOT of very good 23 year olds with the option to play college basketball again next year, and save for the very cream of the crop from the 2021 high school recruiting class, those high-level 23 year olds will have more impact on next year's results than any freshman. As far as Georgetown goes, a lot will depend not just on what our own guys decide to do, but also what our competition's seniors decide to do. Right now we're probably the second worst team in the Big East. Putting aside the likelihood, if our guys like Blair and Pickett decide to stay, it helps our chances for next year; however, if the seniors at Villanova, Providence, Marquette, et. al decide to stay too, then does it materially shift the pecking order? If league-wide all the seniors decide to stay, or all the seniors decide to go, then it's sort of an even playing field and the pecking order for next year will shift based on "standard" factors like 1) How much do a team's returning players improve 2) How good is a team's recruiting class and 3) Which teams lose underclassman to the draft or the portal? However, if Team A's seniors decide to forego a potential 5th year of eligibility to pursue professional opportunities while Team B's seniors decide to run it back and take one more crack at it, it has potential to dramatically tip the power dynamics in the league. Or if one team has a couple extra spots and is able to land a couple of high major-caliber 23 year olds who come in ready to play right away, that has potential to really shift the balance of power. You have to think there are going to be WAY more 5th year guys looking for new homes than ever this year, and if a school is able to land a couple of good ones, it can dramatically change their outlook pretty quickly. I'm not sure if a lot of fans have fully grasped how crazy this could get. March/April/May when these decisions are being made are going to be very interesting. I hope we are in on the action--it could significantly change our outlook for next year, one way or the other.
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