hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Jan 29, 2021 12:01:37 GMT -5
f you listen to college coaches talk publicly or privately, you’ll often hear them use the phrase that they want to “get old and stay old” with their roster. It’s easier said than done to manage a roster that way while also having quality talent, but the current make-up of the top 10 teams tells us that seniority does make a difference in college hoops. Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Michigan, Texas, Houston, Iowa, Virginia, Alabama and Texas Tech currently make up the top 10 in the AP poll. Of the 50 regular starters on those ten teams, there are 21 seniors in the starting lineups. There are also five redshirt juniors, meaning 26 - and over half - of the starters on top ten teams are in their fourth year of college or more. Of the 21 seniors, there are eight redshirt seniors and one junior (Texas guard Andrew Jones) in their fifth year of college. On the flip side, we often see teams with an influx of highly ranked incoming freshmen ranked highly in preseason polls. Sometimes they stick up there, but they also sometimes flop, as we’ve seen with some teams this year. Right now, only six true freshmen are starting on top 10 teams: Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, Michigan center Hunter Dickinson, Texas forward Greg Brown, Virginia guard Reece Beekman, Alabama guard Josh Primo and Texas Tech forward Micah Peavy. Only Suggs and Brown were ranked as five-star prospects in the 2020 class. Speaking of five-star prospects, it often feels like in football the only teams that really have a chance at winning a national championship are the ones that reel in five-star caliber talent and top-five classes every year. That’s not necessarily the case in basketball because five-star prospects can leave after a year. In the current top 10, there are only six five-star prospects in the starting lineups: Suggs, Brown, Villanova forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Andrew Jones, Houston guard Quentin Grimes and Alabama guard John Petty. I don’t see this year’s make-up of top 10 teams being an outlier either. The best teams will usually have juniors and seniors making up their starting lineups. Texas Tech is the only team in the top 10 right now that doesn’t start at least two players in their fourth year of college or more. If you’re die-hard fan of a college basketball team, pray that your coaching staff can manage their roster in a way that keeps them old. basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/mcdonald-s-nuggets-top-10-lineups-virginia-oklahoma
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Jan 29, 2021 13:58:47 GMT -5
f you listen to college coaches talk publicly or privately, you’ll often hear them use the phrase that they want to “get old and stay old” with their roster. It’s easier said than done to manage a roster that way while also having quality talent, but the current make-up of the top 10 teams tells us that seniority does make a difference in college hoops. Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Michigan, Texas, Houston, Iowa, Virginia, Alabama and Texas Tech currently make up the top 10 in the AP poll. Of the 50 regular starters on those ten teams, there are 21 seniors in the starting lineups. There are also five redshirt juniors, meaning 26 - and over half - of the starters on top ten teams are in their fourth year of college or more. Of the 21 seniors, there are eight redshirt seniors and one junior (Texas guard Andrew Jones) in their fifth year of college. On the flip side, we often see teams with an influx of highly ranked incoming freshmen ranked highly in preseason polls. Sometimes they stick up there, but they also sometimes flop, as we’ve seen with some teams this year. Right now, only six true freshmen are starting on top 10 teams: Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, Michigan center Hunter Dickinson, Texas forward Greg Brown, Virginia guard Reece Beekman, Alabama guard Josh Primo and Texas Tech forward Micah Peavy. Only Suggs and Brown were ranked as five-star prospects in the 2020 class. Speaking of five-star prospects, it often feels like in football the only teams that really have a chance at winning a national championship are the ones that reel in five-star caliber talent and top-five classes every year. That’s not necessarily the case in basketball because five-star prospects can leave after a year. In the current top 10, there are only six five-star prospects in the starting lineups: Suggs, Brown, Villanova forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Andrew Jones, Houston guard Quentin Grimes and Alabama guard John Petty. I don’t see this year’s make-up of top 10 teams being an outlier either. The best teams will usually have juniors and seniors making up their starting lineups. Texas Tech is the only team in the top 10 right now that doesn’t start at least two players in their fourth year of college or more. If you’re die-hard fan of a college basketball team, pray that your coaching staff can manage their roster in a way that keeps them old. basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/mcdonald-s-nuggets-top-10-lineups-virginia-oklahomaI agree with the premise here....but you simply can't ignore that Duke and Kentucky have consistently been top 10 teams primarily comprised of freshmen and are not this year. More often than not they stick. That doesn't change the plan for Georgetown at all as it's not realistic to think we're going to pull multiple top 10 players. But this year is definitely a little more unique. On another thread, there was an argument that this year confirmed it's all about players because obviously Coach K and Cal didn't forget how to coach and that all of their Top 100 recruits are just bad this year. I actually believe the exact opposite. It's really difficult to get teams of freshmen (no matter how highly ranked they are) to come together and be a legitimate title contender. That Duke and Kentucky are failing in a year where the offseason was different and there was less of an ability for coaches to make an impact was noticeable. Now there's two conclusions I personally draw from that: (1) yes of course, Ewing bringing in 9 new players in an offseason where they couldn't really work together or play Kenner etc makes it difficult to judge him (although obviously you want to see improvement within the season and it's a little different in that the ones actually playing are senior transfers) and (2) next year is going to be a real coaching challenge with a very young team. Now I personally think Ewing needs to make it work next year either way and we should be out of patience, but it's a difficult job either way and hopefully he's up to the challenge.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 29, 2021 14:41:51 GMT -5
...That Duke and Kentucky are failing in a year where the offseason was different and there was less of an ability for coaches to make an impact was noticeable... Why? It's an excuse. Without travel for recruiting (due to COVID), we haven't seen another year with as much time for coaches and players to be together on campus. Yes, it affected Kenner, but players are not coached during Kenner and do not play together. Other than Pat's COVID scare, we had the full coaching staff together to teach all semester long without recruiting travel interruptions. No excuses. The kids are playing offense and defense just like they have been instructed by the full coaching staff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2021 14:50:25 GMT -5
...That Duke and Kentucky are failing in a year where the offseason was different and there was less of an ability for coaches to make an impact was noticeable... Why? It's an excuse. Without travel for recruiting (due to COVID), we haven't seen another year with as much time for coaches and players to be together on campus. Yes, it affected Kenner, but players are not coached during Kenner and do not play together. Other than Pat's COVID scare, we had the full coaching staff together to teach all semester long without recruiting travel interruptions. No excuses. Almost all HM teams were already on campus by mid July. Georgetown didn't report until mid September and didn't start practice until early October. Practice time is restricted by NCAA so no travel has no effect on how much time coaches can spend with players.
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Jan 29, 2021 14:58:23 GMT -5
...That Duke and Kentucky are failing in a year where the offseason was different and there was less of an ability for coaches to make an impact was noticeable... Why? It's an excuse. Without travel for recruiting (due to COVID), we haven't seen another year with as much time for coaches and players to be together on campus. Yes, it affected Kenner, but players are not coached during Kenner and do not play together. Other than Pat's COVID scare, we had the full coaching staff together to teach all semester long without recruiting travel interruptions. No excuses. The kids are playing offense and defense just like they have been instructed by the full coaching staff. I'll fully admit I'm just as tired of the excuses that come from Ewing, particularly in the post game where it's consistently blaming the players as opposed to showing any accountability for scheme and preparation. That being said, I don't think it's crazy to question player development / integrating new players in this one offseason. I know it's an excuse, and Ewing should honestly stop saying it himself because it comes off like whining. But we can't pretend it didn't affect anything particularly when freshmen-heavy teams across college bball are struggling this year. That doesn't absolve any lack of in-season improvement either, which Ewing can now blame on the Covid pause so we'll get that soundbite the rest of the season I'm sure.
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smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Jan 29, 2021 15:04:13 GMT -5
If the defensive scheme is fixed, that team will win The defense might be better but we would be asking Mohammed to put up atleast 17 a game with that lineup Clearly, scoring and leadership is a HUGE issue with any lineup that doesn't include a returning player. As horrible as the Hoyas are this season, and they are atrocious by most every standard, this group returned two proven Big East scorers (Blair and Pickett) and an obvious riser (Q) coming into the season. You are asking for an even uglier disaster if you don't keep one of those three vets around to help score with the pups. And it really should be Blair, because neither Don nor Pickett has handles, and that's as critical as anything for an incredibly young bunch. And please, please, please don't try to tell me Wahab is going to become a 20-12 guy to lead the pups. Q is solid. But he's not a No. 1 option and never should be. If he were No. 3, which he could be next season if you keep Blair and Aminu arrives as ready as we hope, then next year could be a step forward. If none of the vets stay, it WILL be a step backward relative to the team's ability to compete in games next season.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 29, 2021 15:40:37 GMT -5
Why? It's an excuse. Without travel for recruiting (due to COVID), we haven't seen another year with as much time for coaches and players to be together on campus. Yes, it affected Kenner, but players are not coached during Kenner and do not play together. Other than Pat's COVID scare, we had the full coaching staff together to teach all semester long without recruiting travel interruptions. No excuses. Almost all HM teams were already on campus by mid July. Georgetown didn't report until mid September and didn't start practice until early October. Practice time is restricted by NCAA so no travel has no effect on how much time coaches can spend with players. Those HM teams already on campus by July didn’t/couldn’t have coach contact, right? Do you think the full coaching staff is there for all of the allowed hours per week during a normal year?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2021 18:25:43 GMT -5
Almost all HM teams were already on campus by mid July. Georgetown didn't report until mid September and didn't start practice until early October. Practice time is restricted by NCAA so no travel has no effect on how much time coaches can spend with players. Those HM teams already on campus by July didn’t/couldn’t have coach contact, right? Do you think the full coaching staff is there for all of the allowed hours per week during a normal year? It really depends on the state and school, but most could have contact and were practicing/working out etc. Georgetown was an outlier. Definitely not, but why does that matter?
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 29, 2021 21:18:52 GMT -5
Definitely not, but why does that matter? More coaches, more instruction?
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Post by professorhoya on Jan 29, 2021 22:03:16 GMT -5
f you listen to college coaches talk publicly or privately, you’ll often hear them use the phrase that they want to “get old and stay old” with their roster. It’s easier said than done to manage a roster that way while also having quality talent, but the current make-up of the top 10 teams tells us that seniority does make a difference in college hoops. Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Michigan, Texas, Houston, Iowa, Virginia, Alabama and Texas Tech currently make up the top 10 in the AP poll. Of the 50 regular starters on those ten teams, there are 21 seniors in the starting lineups. There are also five redshirt juniors, meaning 26 - and over half - of the starters on top ten teams are in their fourth year of college or more. Of the 21 seniors, there are eight redshirt seniors and one junior (Texas guard Andrew Jones) in their fifth year of college. On the flip side, we often see teams with an influx of highly ranked incoming freshmen ranked highly in preseason polls. Sometimes they stick up there, but they also sometimes flop, as we’ve seen with some teams this year. Right now, only six true freshmen are starting on top 10 teams: Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, Michigan center Hunter Dickinson, Texas forward Greg Brown, Virginia guard Reece Beekman, Alabama guard Josh Primo and Texas Tech forward Micah Peavy. Only Suggs and Brown were ranked as five-star prospects in the 2020 class. Speaking of five-star prospects, it often feels like in football the only teams that really have a chance at winning a national championship are the ones that reel in five-star caliber talent and top-five classes every year. That’s not necessarily the case in basketball because five-star prospects can leave after a year. In the current top 10, there are only six five-star prospects in the starting lineups: Suggs, Brown, Villanova forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Andrew Jones, Houston guard Quentin Grimes and Alabama guard John Petty. I don’t see this year’s make-up of top 10 teams being an outlier either. The best teams will usually have juniors and seniors making up their starting lineups. Texas Tech is the only team in the top 10 right now that doesn’t start at least two players in their fourth year of college or more. If you’re die-hard fan of a college basketball team, pray that your coaching staff can manage their roster in a way that keeps them old. basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/mcdonald-s-nuggets-top-10-lineups-virginia-oklahomaI think there are two factors this year which exacerbate teams with a lack of experience. 1. No summer league, less practice time, and less OCC: this obviously hurts teams that are stacked with sophomores and freshman, like Duke, KU, Kansas, UNC. 2. NBA G-League Select. Alot of the best 5 star players that would be on Duke, KU, Kansas have opted to go G League and take the $600,000 for one year. So the quality of recruits are down for the blue bloods compared to past years. The combination of the two things happening at the same time have created this perfect storm to kill the blue bloods one and done system.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 4, 2021 6:15:53 GMT -5
As of now, Pickett is the best option at the 4 for next year. Sad, but true. We're limited by the roster options, esp. the 4 centers who cannot play PF, the lack of play of the current frosh forwards (Sibley and CH) and the question mark that is Billingsley. Of course, rosters under Pat change quite a bit, so we may be in for a surprise or two. I personally would rather Ewing throw Sibley and/or Billingsley to the wolves. Hell I think Sibley should be getting more minutes now. There is no saving this season so let's get these puppies as much PT as possible. I think with a year of S&C Sibley will be able to give us at a minimum what Morko is giving us now. He won't have Morko's ceiling but he can give us at least what he's giving now.... I have to apologize to the seniors. All 3 of them (Juggy, Morko and Chudier)have stepped up their games and are playing much better than I thought they could. I didn't think that they could play to the level that they played last night. I gladly accept the egg on my face.......
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2021 6:30:05 GMT -5
I stand by my wish. I want Pickett and Blair to come back and I hope Carey comes back too. If you guys want to win and make an NCAA run, you would want that too. I hope we can get Bile too back but I doubt that would happen since he is a graduated senior but who knows. Plus, I might be getting too greedy by asking for all of these guys to come back. Can't fit but so many players on a team.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Feb 4, 2021 9:38:27 GMT -5
I hear you....but just give me one of Carey, Blair or Pickett and I would be happy. Any two of those guys and we’d be stacked!!
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paranoia2
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Post by paranoia2 on Feb 4, 2021 9:57:28 GMT -5
In a world of unicorns & rainbows every body stays, plays, lives and loves together. The Hoyas 2 new street corners will be HAIGHT & ASHBURY. Why stop w the current seniors? I think Ronnie Highsmith would add some interior toughness.
Tyler, Jordan & Aminu have thought about their freshman season & I assure you it doesn’t include sitting behind Blair.
I am excited that the team committed to guarding all night. Sometimes it broke down but their was harassment & toughness. The players will change but that is the piece we need to stay in continuum.
The way Bile is playing is inspiring because he was bad early. Good for Kobe & Sibley to see this Bile style. But those kids came here to play too. You can’t bury them by extending seniors tenure here because of a loophole. Some of them will LEAVE.
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smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 4, 2021 9:58:31 GMT -5
Last night was proof of exactly who you want to come back and why. Take away Juggy and Bile, and GU gets crushed last night. I really love what Dante has been able to do as a true frosh this season, but he was absolutely abused by one of the best PGs in the nation last night (no shame in that), and all of the frosh next season will have equally inconsistent moments. Relying on them exclusively (along with Dante, Q and Ig) will be a disaster. You don't want/need Carey back. Don has been a nice player, but he's a very limited athlete who would be eating into meaningful frosh minutes.
As for Pickett, last night's game was so Morko! While he had his best shooting game of the season (4-6 from 3) and contributed 16 pts and 7rebs, he also had over a third of our TOs (5), comical for a guy who handles it as rarely as he does, and missed a front end late. He's just SO outrageously inconsistent, shockingly so for a 4-year starter. He would be a distant 3rd on my "want back" list after Blair and Bile.
If Blair and Bile come back, the contributing underclassmen improve (namely Dante, Q/Tim) and the incoming frosh make close to the hoped impact, then GU will be the most improved team in the conference next season. That's a lot of ifs, but none of them unreasonable. In my opinion, it all starts with talking Blair into returning. He's a steadying, all-conference level veteran who can get big buckets without dominating the ball. My bet is he would score just as much next season with fewer touches (because he wouldn't be smothered with Aminu on floor). If we are going to move into the middle of the BE pack next season, convincing him to return is essential. Come back and school up those pups Juggy!
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Post by gojeffgoroyunder7 on Feb 4, 2021 10:03:34 GMT -5
Agree that Blair and Bile are the top priorities re: returning next year and think they would fit very well with next year's squad. Aminu's ability to penetrate will get Blair so many more open looks and Bile would be a nice piece to start at the 4 as we continue to bring Jamari along. However, I strongly disagree that Dante "was absolutely abused" by MZ last night. That's just not true.
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smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 4, 2021 10:10:14 GMT -5
In a world of unicorns & rainbows every body stays, plays, lives and loves together. The Hoyas 2 new street corners will be HAIGHT & ASHBURY. Why stop w the current seniors? I think Ronnie Highsmith would add some interior toughness. Tyler, Jordan & Aminu have thought about their freshman season & I assure you it doesn’t include sitting behind Blair. I am excited that the team committed to guarding all night. Sometimes it broke down but their was harassment & toughness. The players will change but that is the piece we need to stay in continuum. The way Bile is playing is inspiring because he was bad early. Good for Kobe & Sibley to see this Bile style. But those kids came here to play too. You can’t bury them by extending seniors tenure here because of a loophole. Some of them will LEAVE. Good! That's natural attrition at a normal major-conference program. You put the best product you can on the floor. Period! It's very simple. Great players thrive on competition; weak ones shy away from it. If you deserve to be on the floor, Pat will play you. But his job is to assemble the best roster he can for next season. It's real simple. The world of unicorns is the one in which a coach cares about the daydreams of Tyler and Jordan and Aminu and what they see in their heads as next season's rotation.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 4, 2021 10:11:37 GMT -5
I want to clarify my position. I still don't want any of the 3 seniors back next year. I feel even more confident that Dante will be ready to run the show. I was wrong about wanting to cut their minutes this year. I now think they can show the youngins the way....
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paranoia2
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Post by paranoia2 on Feb 4, 2021 10:19:24 GMT -5
I don’t say it a lot but I love Blair. Just dig his style. I believe he will be paid to play basketball going forward. But I am not okay with losing Tyler Beard, Jordan Riley or Aminu for another year of Blair.
After all this pandemic hardships kids have went through Aminu, Beard & Riley don’t want to hear about another “just wait a year behind these guys” scenario. It is fantasyland in your brains. Half the vaunted recruiting class may skip town if you pull that mess.
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smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 4, 2021 11:15:15 GMT -5
I don’t say it a lot but I love Blair. Just dig his style. I believe he will be paid to play basketball going forward. But I am not okay with losing Tyler Beard, Jordan Riley or Aminu for another year of Blair. After all this pandemic hardships kids have went through Aminu, Beard & Riley don’t want to hear about another “just wait a year behind these guys” scenario. It is fantasyland in your brains. Half the vaunted recruiting class may skip town if you pull that mess. No, none of the incoming recruits will bail: 1)All HS seniors believe they are different; that they will come in, trumpets will sound and the game will be forever changed. They all believe, "Just wait until I get there and they get a load of me - then see what they think." 2)If the two guys I spoke of (Blair and Bile) return, it doesn't threaten any of those young guys' minutes. Bile's minutes come from Pickett and Billingsley (who absolutely isn't ready yet). Aminu and Riley get their minutes from Pickett and Carey. And Beard's come from Harris, whom I think we all agree has played way too many minutes this season. In fact, nowhere on the floor do we have fewer available minutes than C, where Mutombo had no issues committing in spite of the fact that he's jammed behind Q and to a lesser extent Ig. I'm sure 1)Ryan isn't intimidated and 2)Ryan hopes to earn some stretch 4 minutes. Those would come from Bile, Sibley and Billingsley. The guys who SHOULD absolutely be worried about minutes are the guys who could not get on the floor this season in spite of our desperation - guys like Holloway, Clark, Wilson and Berger. Those are the guys who are probably feeling like you describe. And the next guy who probably feels like that is Dante, because half of this board has already given his job to Beard. That's comp, baby! That's healthy. What entitlement, unicorn world do you live in where there's a guaranteed chunk of minutes waiting for you? And you don't think the current players have been crushed by Covid? They haven't had fans at their college games for two years! Pull your head out of your rear bro. And, yes, Blair will absolutely be a pro somewhere - dude can flat-out shoot the ball. That's primary reason he'll probably move on, much to my chagrin and anyone else's who hopes to see GU take a step forward next year instead of wasting Aminu's time on the Hilltop treading water. Because without Blair to take some defensive pressure off him, Aminu is going to have a much rougher freshman season. And with NBA millions potentially waiting, how long do you suspect he'll want to bang his head against nightly Big East double-teams...while all these fellow young bulls mature into legit BE players? You think that clock doesn't start the second he steps on campus? Plus, guys like to win. Ask UK or Duke how that's going this season with a rack of frosh? And those are all 5-star frosh, not 1 5-star and a supporting cast of next 50 guys. And frankly, those frosh situations at UK and Duke are apples and oranges from GU. Not only are those teams struggling with a rack of can't-miss guys, they are struggling with the best support systems money can buy and with Hall-of-Fame coaches. No offense to Pat, but he's a far, far cry from K and Calipari at this point. So be careful what you ask for. We NEED Blair back next season. Tyler, Aminu and Riley NEED Blair back next season. You should pray that Juggy finds it in his heart to put off his pro career for one more year, take these young bulls under his wing, teach them the ropes, and just maybe finally enjoy a season of moderate success after sacrificing his college career on the alter of transition and wave after wave of next-thing freshman classes.
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