|
Post by professorhoya on May 12, 2020 19:04:46 GMT -5
Seeming unlikely we have college sports this year at all. Perhaps winter sports, if they are delayed to January? This is California talking, not the SEC or the Big Ten. State supported commuter schools don't have the cost pressure that flagship schools (and private schools) have to deal with and if students transfer or don't show up, another group follows to Cal State-TBA in a few years. LSU earns approximately $55M in revenues a year from football, Alabama over $95M. The school earns a surplus of $20M from football on its own, not counting economic impact to local hotels, restaurants, etc. To date, 216 people have tested positive in Tuscaloosa County from COVID-19. Far too many, of course, but tell that to a couple million fans who can go to work and go to restaurants in Alabama, and want to go to watch football. Gov. Kay Ivey doesn't want to go into a reelection year with that hanging over her. Closer to home, there is a lot of pressure on private schools to open because losses are not recoverable. One example from Georgetown illustrates this point. Put aside the attrition risk when parents decide they simply won't pay $60K in tuition for Zoom classes, the University houses approximately 5,000 students on campus in any given year. Annual costs for dorms range from $5,037 to $6,946 a semester. (Repeat that: a semester). Board rates range from $1,651 to $3,493 a semester. Take an average of those numbers, that's close to $45 million of revenue for just one semester. How do you make that up? And what if a section of students opted to take a gap year and skip tuition altogether? Finally, this thought. Vaccines takes years to develop, and some illnesses never get vaccines at all. Are you prepared to close all colleges, all churches, all schools, all airports, theme parks, shopping malls, public transit systems, movie theaters, etc. not for months but for years on end, unless and until a vaccine is found safe and effective? Because if you do, you might as well close the programs and the universities themselves not far behind it. This is exactly what will happen if they go to Zoom classes. Collapse of alot of the Universities. Who in their right mind is going to pay $60K for online classes and miss out on the college experience. Everyone will take a gap year or deferral and the schools will go broke. I heard that some Universities in the UK will go bankrupt if they don't open back up by mid summer. Same will hold true for alot of schools over here.
|
|
EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 14,836
|
Post by EtomicB on May 12, 2020 19:22:37 GMT -5
Seeming unlikely we have college sports this year at all. Perhaps winter sports, if they are delayed to January? This is California talking, not the SEC or the Big Ten. State supported commuter schools don't have the cost pressure that flagship schools (and private schools) have to deal with and if students transfer or don't show up, another group follows to Cal State-TBA in a few years. LSU earns approximately $55M in revenues a year from football, Alabama over $95M. The school earns a surplus of $20M from football on its own, not counting economic impact to local hotels, restaurants, etc. To date, 216 people have tested positive in Tuscaloosa County from COVID-19. Far too many, of course, but tell that to a couple million fans who can go to work and go to restaurants in Alabama, and want to go to watch football. Gov. Kay Ivey doesn't want to go into a reelection year with that hanging over her. Closer to home, there is a lot of pressure on private schools to open because losses are not recoverable. One example from Georgetown illustrates this point. Put aside the attrition risk when parents decide they simply won't pay $60K in tuition for Zoom classes, the University houses approximately 5,000 students on campus in any given year. Annual costs for dorms range from $5,037 to $6,946 a semester. (Repeat that: a semester). Board rates range from $1,651 to $3,493 a semester. Take an average of those numbers, that's close to $45 million of revenue for just one semester. How do you make that up? And what if a section of students opted to take a gap year and skip tuition altogether? Finally, this thought. Vaccines takes years to develop, and some illnesses never get vaccines at all. Are you prepared to close all colleges, all churches, all schools, all airports, theme parks, shopping malls, public transit systems, movie theaters, etc. not for months but for years on end, unless and until a vaccine is found safe and effective? Because if you do, you might as well close the programs and the universities themselves not far behind it. There have been 291 cases in the county among the 5,928 people tested. There are over 100K people in the county... Of the 291 positive cases, 17 have died. www.wsfa.com/2020/05/11/alabama-tops-confirmed-covid-cases/
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,331
|
Post by daveg023 on May 12, 2020 19:38:42 GMT -5
I’m beginning to think with each passing day this season is getting more and more unlikely. That being said, with only one true senior (and likely a final year of Mac) schools like Villanova or Creighton stand to lose out more than we would. I wouldn’t even be harsh on our resume and call it another NCAA tournament missed
|
|
|
Post by 4aks on May 12, 2020 22:09:15 GMT -5
i think they've give everyone athletic face masks and goggles , then play an abbreviated season - worst case go straight to conference tourneys followed by 128-ish team NCAA tourney
|
|
DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,730
|
Post by DFW HOYA on May 12, 2020 22:30:37 GMT -5
There's California, and everyone else. Already some talk that the Pac-12 might just play in the spring on their own.
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on May 13, 2020 8:00:37 GMT -5
There's California, and everyone else. Already some talk that the Pac-12 might just play in the spring on their own. If alot of the smaller football schools decide not to play ball, then I could see the power schools (Michigan, Texas, Alabama, Clemson, etc) form a super league kind of like the elite Premier League. They could easily do that and hold games and practices at one isolated location with on line learning. So the rest of the 95% of the schools better be careful about trying to stop the season from happening.
|
|
DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,474
|
Post by DanMcQ on May 21, 2020 18:46:46 GMT -5
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,441
|
Post by TC on May 22, 2020 9:35:39 GMT -5
If alot of the smaller football schools decide not to play ball, then I could see the power schools (Michigan, Texas, Alabama, Clemson, etc) form a super league kind of like the elite Premier League. They could easily do that and hold games and practices at one isolated location with on line learning. So the rest of the 95% of the schools better be careful about trying to stop the season from happening. Coronavirus is really going to show us what the actual mission of all these schools are. Some really are just minor league teams that offer classes.
|
|
drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,374
|
Post by drquigley on May 22, 2020 10:11:06 GMT -5
Please educate me Board members (that shouldn't be hard for profhoya). If schools, or for that matter professional sports teams, open up and start playing what happens when a player on say LSU or the Mets tests positive? In theory you should quarantine the whole team for 14 days. Then what? If you're talking about football or basketball don't you have to quarantine the team that guy was playing against? Or do you just quarantine the infected player for 14 days? How many guys have to test positive before you quarantine the whole team and the other teams that this team recently played? I just think we are kidding ourselves that we can play a "normal" NCAA or NFL or MLB schedule until a vaccine is developed. Okay, I take that back. I don't think we can play a "normal" schedule if we really care about the health of the players. Considering the amount of money involved I fear we are looking at a scenario where a players health is sacrificed for the Benjamins. Hey lawyers on the Board. You ready to sue GU or the NFL if a kid gets sick and dies? Conversely, if you're GU or the NFL are you ready to take the risk?
|
|
DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,730
|
Post by DFW HOYA on May 22, 2020 10:19:03 GMT -5
Coronavirus is really going to show us what the actual mission of all these schools are. Some really are just minor league teams that offer classes. Let's be careful with these oversimplifications, lest someone respond by asking if Georgetown is doing the same. At a macro level, these schools do not have the same mission with Georgetown. On its web site, the University of Alabama notes that it is a school "for the best and brightest students in Alabama, and all students who seek exceptional educational opportunities." That school is not about filling diplomatic posts or solving the great ethical questions of justice, peace, and international security. It is to offer education the 18-22 year olds of its state, the kids who grew up there, will raise a family there, send their kids there, and die there. (Due to its recent success, Alabama has a large influx of out-of-state attendees, but the statement holds.) The classes offered generally build around needs of that state: education, agriculture, business, health care, etc. And if football is seen as a vehicle to build state pride, stronger alumni connection, and the ability to put money onto its campus, why is that contrary to its mission?
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,441
|
Post by TC on May 22, 2020 10:32:02 GMT -5
Coronavirus is really going to show us what the actual mission of all these schools are. Some really are just minor league teams that offer classes. Let's be careful with these oversimplifications, lest someone respond by asking if Georgetown is doing the same. If Georgetown makes classes remote only and yet sends kids to play money sports, I'll be happy to oversimplify because it would be showing us what it's actual mission is. I do not think it would, but I guess we will see. In normal times it isn't. If you are saying you cannot hold in-person classes - and you are using a lot of examples (agriculture, health care, etc) where you need an actual in person component - but still hold football - which is going to require all the same risks (being in a building watching tape, close contact, lack of physical distancing) - that is absolutely showing what the priority and the real mission of the school is because it shows what's expendable and what's not.
|
|
bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
|
Post by bamahoya11 on May 22, 2020 13:26:06 GMT -5
Coronavirus is really going to show us what the actual mission of all these schools are. Some really are just minor league teams that offer classes. Let's be careful with these oversimplifications, lest someone respond by asking if Georgetown is doing the same. At a macro level, these schools do not have the same mission with Georgetown. On its web site, the University of Alabama notes that it is a school "for the best and brightest students in Alabama, and all students who seek exceptional educational opportunities." That school is not about filling diplomatic posts or solving the great ethical questions of justice, peace, and international security. It is to offer education the 18-22 year olds of its state, the kids who grew up there, will raise a family there, send their kids there, and die there. (Due to its recent success, Alabama has a large influx of out-of-state attendees, but the statement holds.) The classes offered generally build around needs of that state: education, agriculture, business, health care, etc. And if football is seen as a vehicle to build state pride, stronger alumni connection, and the ability to put money onto its campus, why is that contrary to its mission? As someone who holds degrees from both schools mentioned here, I think this is an over-simplification of the University of Alabama’s mission. While it is true that most state universities are intended to serve as institutions for the state’s residents, the school has leveraged a lot of its athletic success to grow and thrive academically. I think the sports issue is a small piece of our current challenges, though it’s bigger in places like the SEC. A big part of that is that Alabama football has a much larger economic footprint on its community than Georgetown basketball does. DC will be fine if Georgetown doesn’t play basketball this year. If Alabama football goes silent, or if Bryant-Denny stadium sits idle (there was a major Covid-19 outbreak with construction personnel there this week), it could devastate a city like Tuscaloosa (one of the larger cities in Alabama). I have friends and family who live there and make a large part of their livings based on students and the hundreds and thousands of folks who descend on the city in the fall. Now, I fall on the side where safety should be key. As someone who usually goes to several Alabama games a year, I can’t imagine right now sitting at a football game with 101,821, fans and another 100,000-200,000 outside the stadium. All schools are going to feel pressure to reopen, though. These closures put academic programs in jeopardy and certainly will leave an economic impact. That impact will be greater in schools that provide the “company business” for a town.
|
|
hoyas315
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,095
|
Post by hoyas315 on May 22, 2020 15:36:19 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by HometownHoya on May 22, 2020 15:54:01 GMT -5
Looks like he deleted his tweet and reposted it
|
|
kbones17
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,186
|
Post by kbones17 on May 23, 2020 11:50:28 GMT -5
Looks like he deleted his tweet and reposted it So I wonder does this mean that the team stays in town to practice during the summer? And do the freshman now come to campus?
|
|
Bigs"R"Us
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,641
|
Post by Bigs"R"Us on May 23, 2020 12:14:36 GMT -5
I guess you’re still subject to state and local regulations. Also, schools will set their own restrictions.
|
|
RusskyHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
In Soviet Russia, Hoya Blue Bleeds You!
Posts: 4,596
|
Post by RusskyHoya on May 24, 2020 10:07:37 GMT -5
Let's be careful with these oversimplifications, lest someone respond by asking if Georgetown is doing the same. At a macro level, these schools do not have the same mission with Georgetown. On its web site, the University of Alabama notes that it is a school "for the best and brightest students in Alabama, and all students who seek exceptional educational opportunities." That school is not about filling diplomatic posts or solving the great ethical questions of justice, peace, and international security. It is to offer education the 18-22 year olds of its state, the kids who grew up there, will raise a family there, send their kids there, and die there. (Due to its recent success, Alabama has a large influx of out-of-state attendees, but the statement holds.) The classes offered generally build around needs of that state: education, agriculture, business, health care, etc. And if football is seen as a vehicle to build state pride, stronger alumni connection, and the ability to put money onto its campus, why is that contrary to its mission? As someone who holds degrees from both schools mentioned here, I think this is an over-simplification of the University of Alabama’s mission. While it is true that most state universities are intended to serve as institutions for the state’s residents, the school has leveraged a lot of its athletic success to grow and thrive academically. I think the sports issue is a small piece of our current challenges, though it’s bigger in places like the SEC. A big part of that is that Alabama football has a much larger economic footprint on its community than Georgetown basketball does. DC will be fine if Georgetown doesn’t play basketball this year. If Alabama football goes silent, or if Bryant-Denny stadium sits idle (there was a major Covid-19 outbreak with construction personnel there this week), it could devastate a city like Tuscaloosa (one of the larger cities in Alabama). I have friends and family who live there and make a large part of their livings based on students and the hundreds and thousands of folks who descend on the city in the fall. Now, I fall on the side where safety should be key. As someone who usually goes to several Alabama games a year, I can’t imagine right now sitting at a football game with 101,821, fans and another 100,000-200,000 outside the stadium. All schools are going to feel pressure to reopen, though. These closures put academic programs in jeopardy and certainly will leave an economic impact. That impact will be greater in schools that provide the “company business” for a town. Well said. One of the major complicating factors in U.S. higher ed as a whole is the fact that universities - including, to a greater or lesser extent their sports teams - are a major economic driver in many locales. Once upon a time, we were pretty explicit about this fact as a rationale - the state was directly creating 'good jobs' by building up universities during the post-war era to serve the GI Bill generation and the growing segment of female students. It was also stimulating the creation of private sector jobs to service those schools. This is one of the many reasons why countless minor league teams have come and gone with nary a trace, but college programs have remained remarkably resilient over decades. It's not just about the sport, the quality of play, etc. - the institution and its place in the social fabric plays a role that U.S. pro outfits as a rule do not. Anyway, the virus doesn't care about any of that, and our situational awareness of the virus's prevalence in a place like Alabama is still way behind where we'd want it to be. It is exceedingly difficult to forecast what conditions will look like come fall. At the same time, given what we know now about how the virus spreads, some on-site presence of students under significant spread mitigation conditions seems likely. A sports program is an easier thing to isolate than most. LSU earns approximately $55M in revenues a year from football, Alabama over $95M. The school earns a surplus of $20M from football on its own, not counting economic impact to local hotels, restaurants, etc. To date, 216 people have tested positive in Tuscaloosa County from COVID-19. Far too many, of course, but tell that to a couple million fans who can go to work and go to restaurants in Alabama, and want to go to watch football. Gov. Kay Ivey doesn't want to go into a reelection year with that hanging over her. There's not enough time or space to explain the vagaries of Alabama politics here, but Kay Ivey is 75 years old and will be 78 come Election Day on November 8, 2022. In the unlikely event she does run for reelection, how Alabama and Auburn approached the 2020 football season is not going to be one of the key factors in the race.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 10:38:44 GMT -5
There's not enough time or space to explain the vagaries of Alabama politics here, but Kay Ivey is 75 years old and will be 78 come Election Day on November 8, 2020. In the unlikely event she does run for reelection, how Alabama and Auburn approached the 2020 football season is not going to be one of the key factors in the race. I know the pandemic has but hardest on seniors, but this is pretty unique...
|
|
RusskyHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
In Soviet Russia, Hoya Blue Bleeds You!
Posts: 4,596
|
Post by RusskyHoya on May 24, 2020 16:56:05 GMT -5
There's not enough time or space to explain the vagaries of Alabama politics here, but Kay Ivey is 75 years old and will be 78 come Election Day on November 8, 2020. In the unlikely event she does run for reelection, how Alabama and Auburn approached the 2020 football season is not going to be one of the key factors in the race. I know the pandemic has but hardest on seniors, but this is pretty unique... Hah, yeah, I guess my brain has decided we're stuck in 2020 forever. The next Alabama gubernatorial election isn't until 2022. Fixed it in the OP.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,331
|
Post by daveg023 on Jun 22, 2020 8:42:26 GMT -5
The way the NBA and NCAAF seasons and restarts have hit hiccups, the prospect of no season or a delayed season seems likelier by the day.
I have no idea how that would affect things like eligibility, scholarships, coaching contracts, etc. I just can’t see how a season happens when you essentially need 340+ schools of varying geographies, resources, facilities, etc to all be on the same page when you can see how complicated it is for a multibillion dollar entity like the NBA struggling to plan a 2 month period with only 20 teams and ~300 pro athletes.
|
|