HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
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Post by HoyaDr on Feb 13, 2020 11:32:32 GMT -5
We are not going to be better next year unless we land more key recruits. We are losing talent and more importantly experience. Agree to a point. Definitely need more talent, and experience, at the 3-4 positions. A JC transfer would really help. But Mac and Jahvon will bring some needed experience as will Wahab. Curious to see how he develops over the next month. He will get tons of experience and can really have a breakout game or two in the BE tourney. Mac and Blair will have more experience but their defense is lacking. Blair has improved over the season and their flaws are heavily magnified by Yurts lack of rim protection. Hopefully it will be better with Q guarding the hoop and our gurlards won't have to work so hard next year.
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smokeyjack
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,295
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 13, 2020 12:10:28 GMT -5
Totally agree that we need more recruits to even equal this season’s results, but I’m not sure any of us appreciate just how weak Omer is defensively. He’s sub-Govan bad on that end, despite his rebounding numbers. He’s awful at the hedge and retreat and physically a very bad body-on post defender. Wahab is going to be exponentially better defensively at that slot next year. I honestly think defensively we could be net level defensively if any of the incoming players can defend at all. Allen and Mosley are both solid, but not superb.
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Bigs"R"Us
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,640
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Feb 13, 2020 12:57:33 GMT -5
Yurtseven going to be better than Govan, Wahab is going to be better than Yurtseven. A tale as old as time. 😉
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smokeyjack
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,295
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Post by smokeyjack on Feb 13, 2020 13:56:12 GMT -5
Yurtseven going to be better than Govan, Wahab is going to be better than Yurtseven. A tale as old as time. 😉 Didn’t think we could find a post defender worse than Govan. We did. Wahab was better against DePaul defensively than any center we’ve had in a decade.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 13, 2020 13:58:25 GMT -5
Thursday's bubble action features the following, including a couple of double bubble matchups:
Bubble: 9 seed: USC win vs. Washington 10 seed: Wichita St. win at UCF 5th to last team in: Indiana won vs. Iowa Last team in: Arizona St. win vs. 6th to last team in Stanford 1st team out: Cincinnati win vs. 4th team out Memphis
OOC: Mt. St. Mary's loss vs. Robert Morris Georgia St. win vs. Appalachian St.
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,804
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 13, 2020 14:05:51 GMT -5
I think what watching other games (part in BE) drives home for me is how bad our defense still is. You watch PC and SJU, both of whom play decent defense, and you come away thinking you’ve just seen the world’s worst display of off b-ball, because PC has more TOs than FGs and SJU does literally everything wrong in the last five minutes, from fouling to shooting early in the clock to botching the press break on 4 consecutive possessions. I really do think these are poor teams, but it drives home once again how dreadful our defense is, because we can make complete slop look pretty good. Actually makes me feel way better about our team next year and beyond, because you don’t have to be terribly talented to improve defensively. You have to be committed, consistent and have a reasonably high hoops IQ. We need Mac to buy in defensively and Pickett to play smarter (not make shots but cut down on really stupid mistakes on both ends). There is tons of room for growth on that front. I guess I’m less optimistic because aren’t we losing our best defenders in Jagan and Allen next year and they have been playing basically 80 minutes a game. Well at least no one should have to play 40mins a night....
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,804
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 13, 2020 14:14:40 GMT -5
Totally agree that we need more recruits to even equal this season’s results, but I’m not sure any of us appreciate just how weak Omer is defensively. He’s sub-Govan bad on that end, despite his rebounding numbers. He’s awful at the hedge and retreat and physically a very bad body-on post defender. Wahab is going to be exponentially better defensively at that slot next year. I honestly think defensively we could be net level defensively if any of the incoming players can defend at all. Allen and Mosley are both solid, but not superb. I think Jagan is superb but I agree on Allen being slightly above average....Mac and Juggy are bad...hopefully Malcolm or Timmy can make a jump...
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 14, 2020 9:33:08 GMT -5
No help from the bubble Thursday night.
Hoyas fall to 7th out on the Matrix, in 9 of 79 (11%) of brackets.
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Post by BeantownHoya on Feb 14, 2020 9:49:07 GMT -5
I know none of this want to think about this but leading into tomorrow's game...
If we go 3-4 the rest of the way, based on what I would guess is a NET in the 50-60's, our SOS, conference, etc - I would assume we would get at worst an NIT invite regardless of what happens in the BE tournament. To be absolutely clear I rather lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament by 100 then win the NIT...in a normal season. However with the turmoil, injuries and roster turnover this year the NIT could be seen as a victory for THIS season.
I say THIS season because in Ewing's overall "coach" resume this season counts like all the rest and at the end of the day he must be judged on the full body of work but in my best attempt to be a glass half full kind of guy any type of post season appearance does feel like an accomplishment in a way.
Now go beat Butler!!
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 14, 2020 11:51:30 GMT -5
No help from the bubble Thursday night. Hoyas fall to 7th out on the Matrix, in 9 of 89 (10%) of brackets. The Matrix is certainly a better overall predictor of who gets in than any individual bracket. But I don't know that its methodology accurately describes how close you are to being in if it has you out. Hypothetically, 80 brackets may have us out of the bracket (as they do right now) but they all might have us in the first four out, and thus we'd be closer than seventh out. (It could work the other way, too, of course.) FWIW, the two most "prominent" (that's different than most accurate!!) bracketologists -- Lunardi and Palm -- both of us in their "first four out" category this morning. I still think we have a better shot than most give us credit for. We are in the unique position of having only the very small possibility of a bad (Q3) loss the entire rest of the way. Our competitors almost all have the chance for more...and since (like us) they aren't really very good...they're not unlikely to lose one or more of those. Most of our competitors also don't have the same opportunities to get good wins. Even the "decent" wins we would pick up are gonna be Q2 ones.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 14, 2020 12:17:07 GMT -5
No help from the bubble Thursday night. Hoyas fall to 7th out on the Matrix, in 9 of 89 (10%) of brackets. The Matrix is certainly a better overall predictor of who gets in than any individual bracket. But I don't know that its methodology accurately describes how close you are to being in if it has you out. Hypothetically, 80 brackets may have us out of the bracket (as they do right now) but they all might have us in the first four out, and thus we'd be closer than seventh out. (It could work the other way, too, of course.) FWIW, the two most "prominent" (that's different than most accurate!!) bracketologists -- Lunardi and Palm -- both of us in their "first four out" category this morning. I still think we have a better shot than most give us credit for. We are in the unique position of having only the very small possibility of a bad (Q3) loss the entire rest of the way. Our competitors almost all have the chance for more...and since (like us) they aren't really very good...they're not unlikely to lose one or more of those. Most of our competitors also don't have the same opportunities to get good wins. Even the "decent" wins we would pick up are gonna be Q2 ones. \ Agreed that the Matrix is an all or nothing indicator (i.e. either you are in a bracket or you are not) and that it doesn't indicate "how far out" you are from the cut line. That being said, it's still a far better tool than utilizing a single bracket. Yes, people know Lunardi and Palm, but Lunardi is the 55th ranked bracket on the Matrix over the last 5 years. Palm is even worse at 85th. Definitely not going to be using just their single bracket and drawing any conclusions. If you are going to go the single bracket route, you may as well use the best. Bracketville (ranked #1 the last 5 years) has the Hoyas as the 2nd team out. bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/The other caveat to using the Matrix is that some of the data is lagging; of the 79 brackets, I would say nearly half are from 2/12 and 2/11, while the other half is as of 2/13. Those older brackets are not going to capture some of the bubble losses/wins we saw the last 2-3 days. I strongly agree we have a great shot. I would venture to guess no team in America has more remaining Q1/Q2 games than us. With SJU's win vs Prov., we picked up an additional Q1 and Q2 win in our profile. That gives us an 8-10 record against the top two quadrants. If the target is 11 and we have at least 7 chances left, this team has ample opportunities to get there.
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CTHoya08
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Bring back Izzo!
Posts: 2,816
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Post by CTHoya08 on Feb 14, 2020 17:01:39 GMT -5
Our conference record isn't good right now, and the raft of injuries isn't encouraging, but as others have said, we have lots of chances for good wins and don't really have any "opportunities" for truly bad losses coming up. This team should be able to get in with 4-5 more wins. That's basically going .500, or slightly better, down the stretch.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,629
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Post by seaweed on Feb 15, 2020 7:41:18 GMT -5
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Bigs"R"Us
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,640
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Feb 15, 2020 8:12:21 GMT -5
I’ve been rooting our undermanned team on, but we are sitting in 8th place. We don’t deserve to be in the tournament, as we sit today.
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Post by wponds on Feb 15, 2020 16:55:48 GMT -5
OK State beat #24 Texas Tech
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,297
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 15, 2020 17:02:32 GMT -5
OK State beat #24 Texas Tech Makes that game a Q1 win (for now). By my count we have 5 Q1 wins (Creighton, Butler, SJ, SMU, and Ok St) and 4 Q2 wins (SJ, Syracuse, Texas, DePaul).
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 15, 2020 17:09:56 GMT -5
How many bubble teams have 9 Q1-2 wins? I presume not many.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 15, 2020 17:22:22 GMT -5
Richmond currently destroying VCU. Very helpful.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,302
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 15, 2020 17:26:12 GMT -5
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LCPolo18
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,406
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 15, 2020 17:32:42 GMT -5
How many bubble teams have 9 Q1-2 wins? I presume not many. Hoyas have the overall profile. Just need more wins at this point.
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