saxagael
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Post by saxagael on Jan 21, 2020 10:41:53 GMT -5
Lost in all the hard hedge talk is that Georgetown has not had a good defense in quite some time, back as far as 2015. Under Ewing, we have had defenses ranked 119 (9th of 10 in the Big East), 133 (9th of 10 in the Big East), and now 129 (10 of 10 in the Big East). This was a problem even when we had depth, though I agree lacking depth certainly doesn't help. The fact is, even if the hard hedge is working, then a lot of other things are wrong with the defensive scheme. Here's the last 7 years from Kenpom. Yes there were cracks toward the end of the JT3 era, but no Ewing team has been able to beat the worst of JT3's last 4 years. So much of this was laid at Govan's feet for the first two Ewing years. That doesn't feel particularly fair in retrospect 2014: 91 2015: 33 2016: 81 2017: 58 ------------------ 2018: 119 2019: 133 2020: 128 The KenPom rating doesn't level out to account for slow offenses and more up tempo. JTIII ran really slow building offenses which reduced the number of possessions and that tempo shift accounts for much of the difference (it has been a while since I've subscribed to KenPom as their are flaws that make comparisons tough, like this). The KenPom defense ratings have as much to do with how a team runs their offense as it does to what the defense is doing. Includes a correlation that shouldn't be there, but getting this right is tough. The overal KenPom scores are more accurate for team to team comparison. The efficiency works fairly well with in a team and season to see if they are improving or slipping. A lot of the player and team on the floor comparisons within a team are really good as well. The 2014 through 2017 also included Hayes who slowed things down, but was a really good big inside defender and denied the lane to the point many teams wouldn't even try. He was injured a lot, but with him the defense really was different in addition to Trawick and the slower offensive pace attributing to the lower numbers.
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Jan 21, 2020 11:04:28 GMT -5
Here's the last 7 years from Kenpom. Yes there were cracks toward the end of the JT3 era, but no Ewing team has been able to beat the worst of JT3's last 4 years. So much of this was laid at Govan's feet for the first two Ewing years. That doesn't feel particularly fair in retrospect 2014: 91 2015: 33 2016: 81 2017: 58 ------------------ 2018: 119 2019: 133 2020: 128 The KenPom rating doesn't level out to account for slow offenses and more up tempo. JTIII ran really slow building offenses which reduced the number of possessions and that tempo shift accounts for much of the difference (it has been a while since I've subscribed to KenPom as their are flaws that make comparisons tough, like this). The KenPom defense ratings have as much to do with how a team runs their offense as it does to what the defense is doing. Includes a correlation that shouldn't be there, but getting this right is tough. The overal KenPom scores are more accurate for team to team comparison. The efficiency works fairly well with in a team and season to see if they are improving or slipping. A lot of the player and team on the floor comparisons within a team are really good as well. The 2014 through 2017 also included Hayes who slowed things down, but was a really good big inside defender and denied the lane to the point many teams wouldn't even try. He was injured a lot, but with him the defense really was different in addition to Trawick and the slower offensive pace attributing to the lower numbers. Sorry but this is incorrect. KenPom is tempo adjusted efficiency stats, looking on a per possession basis as each team will have the same number of possessions in a game, and then making an adjustment to account for strength of opponent. The explicit reason they exist is to avoid the trap of simple points scored or points allowed per game as those aren't easy to compare across teams. The increased tempo and number of possessions has nothing to do with those numbers.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 21, 2020 11:07:56 GMT -5
Early in the game MU was running double screen across the top taking out Hoyas two guards (if not three players) leaving Yurtseven as the rotate to cover Howard (really smart play by Yurtseven and Wahab has been doing similar), which puts the big up top. Not a hard hedge at all, but puts the big up top through smart helping. Howard was nailing shots over a seven footer with a hand in his face, which is absolutely nuts. That’s not how I remember it, so I checked. Here are Howard’s 6 made 3s: 1st half 13:07 - Howard ran under the basket to the corner with Allen chasing but in his face with few seconds left in the shot clock. 12:20 - mid arc to the left; left alone by Allen who went to over-help on another player; no defender within 5 ft. 7:47 - mid arc to the right with Allen in his face. 5:24 - Around a screen at the top and Omer stretching from the other side, but not close. Very relaxed shot by Howard. 2nd half 6:10 - 24 ft to the left side with 4 secs left; Howard received the ball with Mosely a casual 7 ft away. 1:21 - inbound play with 20 seconds on the shot clock: MU runs an inbound play for Howard around screens to a full stop at the near corner, Howard receives the inbound pass, waits for Jagan to fly by (like everything Jagan does, it was a very stylish fly-by, almost ballet-like) and then waits for Allen to also fly by and nails the completely alone 3. In sum: Omer was never involved in Howard’s made 3s other than in the corner of his eye during the 4th 3. Nothing that would bother a scorer like Howard. Allen and Mosely gave to much space for Howard to receive the ball with the shot clock winding down. The way to defend Howard is to make him work to receive a pass to hopefully tire him by the end of the game and stay in his face. He doesn’t need much space to get his shot off. We were a little too casual defending him.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 21, 2020 11:16:25 GMT -5
This coaching staff has proven quite conclusively that they can not coach defense. But, for some reason, many people will not accept this fact. I guess one of the problems with hiring a legend into this job is that many people will try to defend the indefensible in order to avoid the uncomfortable idea that the legend is bad at this job and, soon, should not have it anymore. And let the fun begin! I really hoped that this conversation could wait until the year was over and we could evaluate what just happened. FWIW, I think you would have to agree that had the big 3 (LeBlanc, Gardner, Alexander) not transferred we could very easily be 3-3- or 4-2 right now and looking at a 10-8 BE season and an NCAA bid. Were that to have happened I think you could argue that the Ewing Era was progressing as per expected and that next year, with the addition of 2-3 quality recruits, we would be positioned to compete for a BE championship. Now you can argue that Ewing bears some responsibility for these transfers, that his recruiting resulted in these transfers, and that this shows that "the legend is bad at this job". But I think it is way too soon to lay the loss of these kids at his feet. In fact you could argue that his ability to keep this group together and maybe finish the BE season at 7-11 or 8-10 is a testament to his coaching ability. I gave PE 3 years and, like I said, without the transfers he would have satisfied my expectations. Because of these transfers I think it only fair to give him another 1-2 years to prove his worth.
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hoya9797
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Post by hoya9797 on Jan 21, 2020 11:37:59 GMT -5
This coaching staff has proven quite conclusively that they can not coach defense. But, for some reason, many people will not accept this fact. I guess one of the problems with hiring a legend into this job is that many people will try to defend the indefensible in order to avoid the uncomfortable idea that the legend is bad at this job and, soon, should not have it anymore. And let the fun begin! I really hoped that this conversation could wait until the year was over and we could evaluate what just happened. FWIW, I think you would have to agree that had the big 3 (LeBlanc, Gardner, Alexander) not transferred we could very easily be 3-3- or 4-2 right now and looking at a 10-8 BE season and an NCAA bid. Were that to have happened I think you could argue that the Ewing Era was progressing as per expected and that next year, with the addition of 2-3 quality recruits, we would be positioned to compete for a BE championship. Now you can argue that Ewing bears some responsibility for these transfers, that his recruiting resulted in these transfers, and that this shows that "the legend is bad at this job". But I think it is way too soon to lay the loss of these kids at his feet. In fact you could argue that his ability to keep this group together and maybe finish the BE season at 7-11 or 8-10 is a testament to his coaching ability. I gave PE 3 years and, like I said, without the transfers he would have satisfied my expectations. Because of these transfers I think it only fair to give him another 1-2 years to prove his worth. Sure, there are a lot of things that could have gone different and made this better but they didn’t. And, part of being good at the job is managing the personalities and roster. That clearly has been a major failure. I’m not sure why he gets more time because of something he was somewhat responsible for screwing up.
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Jan 21, 2020 11:43:45 GMT -5
And let the fun begin! I really hoped that this conversation could wait until the year was over and we could evaluate what just happened. FWIW, I think you would have to agree that had the big 3 (LeBlanc, Gardner, Alexander) not transferred we could very easily be 3-3- or 4-2 right now and looking at a 10-8 BE season and an NCAA bid. Were that to have happened I think you could argue that the Ewing Era was progressing as per expected and that next year, with the addition of 2-3 quality recruits, we would be positioned to compete for a BE championship. Now you can argue that Ewing bears some responsibility for these transfers, that his recruiting resulted in these transfers, and that this shows that "the legend is bad at this job". But I think it is way too soon to lay the loss of these kids at his feet. In fact you could argue that his ability to keep this group together and maybe finish the BE season at 7-11 or 8-10 is a testament to his coaching ability. I gave PE 3 years and, like I said, without the transfers he would have satisfied my expectations. Because of these transfers I think it only fair to give him another 1-2 years to prove his worth. Sure, there are a lot of things that could have gone different and made this better but they didn’t. And, part of being good at the job is managing the personalities and roster. That clearly has been a major failure. I’m not sure why he gets more time because of something he was somewhat responsible for screwing up. I do want to be on the record that I do not think Ewing's job status should really be discussed at this point. I'm trying to highlight that there are obvious strengths and weaknesses he's shown and we're 3 years in. We need to acknowledge those weaknesses and try to fix them. The transfers this year complicates the analysis but I'd rather focus on where we can improve and see where the rest of this year shakes out. We'll know a lot more about his coaching ability by the end of this season
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jan 21, 2020 11:43:58 GMT -5
Ewing had momentum going, but was derailed. Difficult now to pick it up, because of the derailment. GU may find itself in a pickle several years from now.
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saxagael
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Post by saxagael on Jan 21, 2020 11:45:48 GMT -5
Early in the game MU was running double screen across the top taking out Hoyas two guards (if not three players) leaving Yurtseven as the rotate to cover Howard (really smart play by Yurtseven and Wahab has been doing similar), which puts the big up top. Not a hard hedge at all, but puts the big up top through smart helping. Howard was nailing shots over a seven footer with a hand in his face, which is absolutely nuts. That’s not how I remember it, so I checked. Here are Howard’s 6 made 3s: 1st half 13:07 - Howard ran under the basket to the corner with Allen chasing but in his face with few seconds left in the shot clock. 12:20 - mid arc to the left; left alone by Allen who went to over-help on another player; no defender within 5 ft. 7:47 - mid arc to the right with Allen in his face. 5:24 - Around a screen at the top and Omer stretching from the other side, but not close. Very relaxed shot by Howard. 2nd half 6:10 - 24 ft to the left side with 4 secs left; Howard received the ball with Mosely a casual 7 ft away. 1:21 - inbound play with 20 seconds on the shot clock: MU runs an inbound play for Howard around screens to a full stop at the near corner, Howard receives the inbound pass, waits for Jagan to fly by (like everything Jagan does, it was a very stylish fly-by, almost ballet-like) and then waits for Allen to also fly by and nails the completely alone 3. In sum: Omer was never involved in Howard’s made 3s other than in the corner of his eye during the 4th 3. Nothing that would bother a scorer like Howard. Allen and Mosely gave to much space for Howard to receive the ball with the shot clock winding down. The way to defend Howard is to make him work to receive a pass to hopefully tire him by the end of the game and stay in his face. He doesn’t need much space to get his shot off. We were a little too casual defending him. Agree, but much of this has nothing to do with hard hedge, which has been my point. There is a need to improve defense when not dealing with high screens. Howard only shot over Yurtseven two times and it wasn't on hard hedge it was other players getting caught in double screens up top and Yurtseven read what was happening and came out to help. Howard had four shots made off of hard hedge flubs and one great driving between the Allen and Yurt gap that was brilliant. One was of the hard hedge flubs lead to a 3. His three shots are as you describe well. Most of them don't involve high hedge nor would high hedge help as it isn't a pick and roll setup, which is the only thing hard hedge is used on (or should be) and that is 3 to 5 seconds of a possession. Howard has great spacial awareness and knows how to take of advantage of anything given him, but will also shoot and make shots when heavily covered. Hoyas are hurt by lack of depth when they can't put hard fouls on players. Hoyas are running defense to cover well as they can, but also try to limit foul trouble as they don't have depth to lean into fouls when that helps.
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saxagael
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Post by saxagael on Jan 21, 2020 11:57:37 GMT -5
The KenPom rating doesn't level out to account for slow offenses and more up tempo. JTIII ran really slow building offenses which reduced the number of possessions and that tempo shift accounts for much of the difference (it has been a while since I've subscribed to KenPom as their are flaws that make comparisons tough, like this). The KenPom defense ratings have as much to do with how a team runs their offense as it does to what the defense is doing. Includes a correlation that shouldn't be there, but getting this right is tough. The overal KenPom scores are more accurate for team to team comparison. The efficiency works fairly well with in a team and season to see if they are improving or slipping. A lot of the player and team on the floor comparisons within a team are really good as well. The 2014 through 2017 also included Hayes who slowed things down, but was a really good big inside defender and denied the lane to the point many teams wouldn't even try. He was injured a lot, but with him the defense really was different in addition to Trawick and the slower offensive pace attributing to the lower numbers. Sorry but this is incorrect. KenPom is tempo adjusted efficiency stats, looking on a per possession basis as each team will have the same number of possessions in a game, and then making an adjustment to account for strength of opponent. The explicit reason they exist is to avoid the trap of simple points scored or points allowed per game as those aren't easy to compare across teams. The increased tempo and number of possessions has nothing to do with those numbers. Yes, it is adjusted per 100, but there have been quite a few analytic studies showing the corrolation between teams that shoot late in possessions and low KenPom defensive efficiency numbers. They look mostly at the top quarter of score in late possession average and run correlation to low KenPom rating for defense and the correlation is nearly linear and there is a tight fit. While the accounting for running the possessions across the 100 possessions not game or other, the correlation is still insanely strong. Much of the correlation is the teams running late clock scoring run slower offenses, tend to also have a lot of upperclassmen eating a majority of their minutes (who also have learned the defensive scheme and aim to slow down the other team's tempo which disrupts their offensive capability), and heavy use of red shirting (learning the offense and defense). Teams that cause the focus are Virgina, St. Mary's, and a bunch of the mid-majors who do deep into the tournament. Common factor is slow offenses and lower KenPom defensive scores. Georgetown and Princeton were in one of the studies. In a two or three year period their were 5 or 6 academic papers that looked at this. At least one was submitted to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, but I don't think it made it through. I don't know how many were formally published anywhere, but they are around if digging in university programs that have sports analytics minors. This doesn't apply as well to the other 3/4ths that run fast offenses as tightly, but the really strong correlation is there. There are a few gaps in KenPom analysis, but not a lot that fill in those gaps.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 21, 2020 12:05:49 GMT -5
This coaching staff has proven quite conclusively that they can not coach defense. But, for some reason, many people will not accept this fact. I guess one of the problems with hiring a legend into this job is that many people will try to defend the indefensible in order to avoid the uncomfortable idea that the legend is bad at this job and, soon, should not have it anymore. And he's back! As I predicted last time you were here, I searched high and low for a post from you after Ewing coached us to a win over Creighton, but could not find a word. Then we lose, and out you crawl with your one-note agenda.
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hoya9797
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Post by hoya9797 on Jan 21, 2020 12:21:12 GMT -5
I was in DC last week and went to the game. I was happy they won. But, one game does not outweigh the entirety of his tenure. I’m sure they will win more. And I’ll be happy to see it. But, I do not think the fundamental issues are going to change and I think they are enough of a problem that he’ll eventually be out.
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hoyainla
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Suspended
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Post by hoyainla on Jan 21, 2020 14:32:02 GMT -5
If you truly break down how Yurt defends the PnR its a big part of the problem. If Ewing hasn't figured it out yet that's on him. He is not as athletic as most here seem to believe. He is often too far away from the guy setting the screen so he is caught guessing which side he will set it on. Not being connected also allows the ball handler to split the screen which happened a couple of times. A few times this is because he was screened prior but not a lot. There is also no reason to hard hedge when the screen is 4+ feet behind the 3PT line. If the ball handler wants to take the shot from there let him. Can Howard make that shot some times? Sure but I would take my chance with that result compared to what normally happens and there is only 1 Howard. There are also not a lot of pick and pop guys in the BE which is what the hard hedge is usually better against. If we had Andre Drummond running our hard hedge I am sure it would look much better but we don't. It's time to try something else. The numbers show our PnR defense is one of the worst in the country so why not try something else.
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jan 22, 2020 8:33:28 GMT -5
Towards the end of the game, Wojo opted to foul Mosely so that we couldn’t put up a three to tie the game. I thought it was a good calculated decision. I don’t recall the Hoyas making such a strategic decision in recent history.
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Post by HometownHoya on Jan 22, 2020 13:51:14 GMT -5
Towards the end of the game, Wojo opted to foul Mosely so that we couldn’t put up a three to tie the game. I thought it was a good calculated decision. I don’t recall the Hoyas making such a strategic decision in recent history. That decision has actually be studied and is more likely to backfire. The odds are better for the defensive team to allow a contested 3 (more likely to miss) then to stop the clock and let the other team get it to 1 point (which then puts the pressure on your own team) or have an off chance at a 4-pt play. In practice, I agree that it's a good decision to use at time, mostly because it throws off opposing end of game plans. Using it all the time though leads to risking a 4-pt play due to coaches knowing whats coming.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 22, 2020 14:17:33 GMT -5
Hoyas have had the players to mostly run man. Their awareness and help coverage has been fairly good. The KenPom number is high as other teams are running a lot of offensive plays aimed at running the Hoyas, which what Patrick's plan and worked fairly well when had larger roster. But, the KenPom ratings also are over relied on. He's got the Hoyas at 51 on this overall list, which means they are doing something well. Every team has its strengths and weaknesses, but if you can cover weaknesses with strengths you are often in good shape. Hoyas, when all are healthy have good offensive schemes that work well for their players. There's no mystery why we are (as of this writing) ranked 52 on KenPom. We are 18th nationally in offense (very good), but we are 123 on defense, which is really bad for a high major team trying to compete for a tournament spot. So yeah, our offense has been performing pretty well overall, but the defense has been hugely bad. As others have said, this is not new, as Ewing has never coached a good defensive team. You're right that every team has its strengths and weaknesses, of course. You would just think that after 3 years we'd be able to come up with something better than the 123rd defense. I do not see how you could say that our player's awareness and help coverage has been "fairly good." We routinely overhelp/underhelp, go flying into the air trying to block a shot that we are 5 feet from, etc. There's simply no way that opponents can consistently get so open for three point shots, while our help defense and awareness is fairly good. I actually think our positional awareness and help defense is particularly bad.
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