rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Dec 12, 2019 9:54:48 GMT -5
This isn't exactly a Hoya analytics topic. It's definitely basketball analytics, and I'm making a slight leap to connect it to our Hoyas, so bear with me. theathletic.com/1443063/2019/12/09/nba-analytics-league-lookaround-shooters-switches-and-scrambles/Appreciate this is behind a paywall and about the NBA, so will summarize the main points and try to connect to Gtown - Bottom third of article tries to look at offensive efficiency relative to defensive movement. Basically the premise that good offenses force the defense to move, and that yields good results. Additionally defenses that are "working hard" by running around on scrambles aren't actually doing a great job
- This isn't exactly rocket science, but the data does show a fairly strong correlation. Offenses that force defenses to move more score more efficiently. Even the Rockets, who on first glance themselves just stand around and let Harden work, actually force the defense to move around a ton. Harden breaks them down and forces a scramble, and it leads to good shots elsewhere on court
- We've even seen this play out with our Hoyas over the last two games on offense. The ball movement is forcing defenses to scramble more, and it's opened up efficient 3 point shot attempts for our team
- The article then ties back to the Bulls, who lead the NBA in hard hedges and blitzes on pick n rolls (sound familiar?). The Bulls are a middling defensive efficiency team at best, but that is being masked by the fact that they have benefited from the most missed unguarded 3 pointers in NBA.
- Simply put in article: “Coaches lose sleep trying to figure out ways to get defenses in rotation. The Bulls do it on purpose.”
To bring this back to our Hoyas, it's just another way to try and evaluate our defensive approach. While I've been impressed with the offensive schemes Ewing has brought to the team, I continue to be a little concerned about the defensive approach. Even our kenpom ranking of 45 is driven by the 21st offense and being dragged down by the 90th defense (which I think would still be worse than any JT3 defense, even the worst of times).
I know the first reaction is going to tie this back to Akinjo v Allen and maybe our defensive numbers will improve over the course of the season (and this is still better than last year's defense or any of Ewing era). Just some food for thought that I figured would go well in this thread.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 14, 2019 5:20:29 GMT -5
If we get down to 5 players, that Hoopslens subscription is not going to be very valuable. 😂
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Post by SoCal Hoya85 on Dec 14, 2019 8:36:53 GMT -5
This isn't exactly a Hoya analytics topic. It's definitely basketball analytics, and I'm making a slight leap to connect it to our Hoyas, so bear with me. theathletic.com/1443063/2019/12/09/nba-analytics-league-lookaround-shooters-switches-and-scrambles/Appreciate this is behind a paywall and about the NBA, so will summarize the main points and try to connect to Gtown - Bottom third of article tries to look at offensive efficiency relative to defensive movement. Basically the premise that good offenses force the defense to move, and that yields good results. Additionally defenses that are "working hard" by running around on scrambles aren't actually doing a great job
- This isn't exactly rocket science, but the data does show a fairly strong correlation. Offenses that force defenses to move more score more efficiently. Even the Rockets, who on first glance themselves just stand around and let Harden work, actually force the defense to move around a ton. Harden breaks them down and forces a scramble, and it leads to good shots elsewhere on court
- We've even seen this play out with our Hoyas over the last two games on offense. The ball movement is forcing defenses to scramble more, and it's opened up efficient 3 point shot attempts for our team
- The article then ties back to the Bulls, who lead the NBA in hard hedges and blitzes on pick n rolls (sound familiar?). The Bulls are a middling defensive efficiency team at best, but that is being masked by the fact that they have benefited from the most missed unguarded 3 pointers in NBA.
- Simply put in article: “Coaches lose sleep trying to figure out ways to get defenses in rotation. The Bulls do it on purpose.”
To bring this back to our Hoyas, it's just another way to try and evaluate our defensive approach. While I've been impressed with the offensive schemes Ewing has brought to the team, I continue to be a little concerned about the defensive approach. Even our kenpom ranking of 45 is driven by the 21st offense and being dragged down by the 90th defense (which I think would still be worse than any JT3 defense, even the worst of times).
I know the first reaction is going to tie this back to Akinjo v Allen and maybe our defensive numbers will improve over the course of the season (and this is still better than last year's defense or any of Ewing era). Just some food for thought that I figured would go well in this thread.
Great post. The other problem with the hard hedge is its asking a loy of the big and can lead to foul trouble. Ewing seems to be moving to a softer hedge.
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 15, 2019 15:24:49 GMT -5
Syracuse PPP stats
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 15, 2019 15:30:28 GMT -5
Post Akinjo transfer Allen/Mac/Jagan PPP analysis. Offense 1.3 Defense .92
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 15, 2019 15:38:59 GMT -5
Our offense is predominantly spot up shooting, transition, PNR ball handler, and post up. We are 92% percentile as spot up shooters. We are 17th percentile in transition. We are 11th percentile in PNR roll man
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 15, 2019 15:43:34 GMT -5
Defensively, we are most effective against post-ups and least effective against spot ups, PNR ball handler, cuts , and off screens
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by rhw485 on Dec 16, 2019 8:44:37 GMT -5
barttorvik.com gives you game by game Adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (to factor in strength of opponent). In the three games post-Akinjo, taking averages:
Offense: 131.13 O-Rating. #1 Kansas is at 116 Defense: 98.26 D-Rating. That would be about 150th in country.
The quality of the shots this offense is generating gives you hope it's sustainable (maybe not #1 in country but top 15-20 is realistic).
Will still come down to the defense as we get towards BE play
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2019 10:07:41 GMT -5
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 16, 2019 16:12:06 GMT -5
I posted some of this in another thread, but on the issue of offense (calculated manually by me):
Pre-Transfer: 117 3PT Attempts/531 possessions = 22.03% threes Post-Transfer: 75 3PT Attempts/215 possessions = 34.41% threes
3PT Shooting Percentage Pre-Transfer: 33.33% 3PT Shooting Percentage Post-Transfer: 45.95%
When you look at the fact that we are taking a lot more threes and making more, it becomes easy to see why we improved. Plus, Akinjo was our worst two point shooter, so it's not to see why we have improved. While Akinjo was good at free throws, everyone else shoots them well, and McClung draws a lot too, so that is not missed much.
For what it's worth, the 45.95% three point shooting isn't sustainable - with the old line, the best teams were usually in the 42% range. So, either we cool down, or we will be one of the best shooting teams in the country.
On free throws, though, we are taking fewer post-transfer:
Pre-Transfer: 117 FTA/531 possessions = 33.71% of possessions were FTAs Post-Transfer: 75 FTA Attempts/215 possessions = 25.58% of possessions were FTAs.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 16, 2019 18:45:57 GMT -5
I posted some of this in another thread, but on the issue of offense (calculated manually by me): Pre-Transfer: 117 3PT Attempts/531 possessions = 22.03% threes Post-Transfer: 75 3PT Attempts/215 possessions = 34.41% threes 3PT Shooting Percentage Pre-Transfer: 33.33% 3PT Shooting Percentage Post-Transfer: 45.95% When you look at the fact that we are taking a lot more threes and making more, it becomes easy to see why we improved. Plus, Akinjo was our worst two point shooter, so it's not to see why we have improved. While Akinjo was good at free throws, everyone else shoots them well, and McClung draws a lot too, so that is not missed much. For what it's worth, the 45.95% three point shooting isn't sustainable - with the old line, the best teams were usually in the 42% range. So, either we cool down, or we will be one of the best shooting teams in the country. On free throws, though, we are taking fewer post-transfer: Pre-Transfer: 117 FTA/531 possessions = 33.71% of possessions were FTAs Post-Transfer: 75 FTA Attempts/215 possessions = 25.58% of possessions were FTAs. Even with Akinjo's stats as a boat anchor, we're still #32 in the country in three-point shooting so far. We won't shoot 46% but we very well might be one of the top shooting teams.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Dec 18, 2019 17:02:10 GMT -5
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Dec 18, 2019 18:55:05 GMT -5
If anyone wants to know just how incredible Allen has been, in the last 4 games he is the only player in which the team has a negative PPP when he is off the floor. For every other player the team still is a net positive when they are off the floor which is too be expected since we have been winning by so much. We lose Allen for any reason this year and we are likely toast. He's just that important. Pat better hope there is another grad senior like Allen that wants to come home to play next year.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 20, 2019 2:24:17 GMT -5
For those wondering when KenPom’s preseason ratings no longer apply.
When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system? As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.
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emkmd
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Post by emkmd on Dec 20, 2019 7:47:29 GMT -5
I posted some of this in another thread, but on the issue of offense (calculated manually by me): Pre-Transfer: 117 3PT Attempts/531 possessions = 22.03% threes Post-Transfer: 75 3PT Attempts/215 possessions = 34.41% threes 3PT Shooting Percentage Pre-Transfer: 33.33% 3PT Shooting Percentage Post-Transfer: 45.95% When you look at the fact that we are taking a lot more threes and making more, it becomes easy to see why we improved. Plus, Akinjo was our worst two point shooter, so it's not to see why we have improved. While Akinjo was good at free throws, everyone else shoots them well, and McClung draws a lot too, so that is not missed much. For what it's worth, the 45.95% three point shooting isn't sustainable - with the old line, the best teams were usually in the 42% range. So, either we cool down, or we will be one of the best shooting teams in the country. On free throws, though, we are taking fewer post-transfer: Pre-Transfer: 117 FTA/531 possessions = 33.71% of possessions were FTAs Post-Transfer: 75 FTA Attempts/215 possessions = 25.58% of possessions were FTAs. Thanks for posting the stats. In some of the closer games Earlier in the season I think the opponent resorted to fouling which increased our FT numbers. Plus Akinjo was good at drawing fouls.
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by rhw485 on Dec 20, 2019 7:50:44 GMT -5
FWIW, KenPom himself has been pushing back against this argument that his ratings aren't effective until the preseason ratings no longer apply.
He basically lines up the mid december AP poll and compares to the year end AP poll and the mid December KenPom ratings and compares to the end of year KenPom ratings historically. They both average having 17 out of the 25 end of year teams in common w the mid December numbers.
Maybe it's more an indictment of any December ratings but it's interesting that his overlap is no worse than the polls despite leveraging some amount of preseason ratings at this point.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Dec 20, 2019 8:44:14 GMT -5
FWIW, KenPom himself has been pushing back against this argument that his ratings aren't effective until the preseason ratings no longer apply. He basically lines up the mid december AP poll and compares to the year end AP poll and the mid December KenPom ratings and compares to the end of year KenPom ratings historically. They both average having 17 out of the 25 end of year teams in common w the mid December numbers. Maybe it's more an indictment of any December ratings but it's interesting that his overlap is no worse than the polls despite leveraging some amount of preseason ratings at this point. As one special commentator recently said, maybe the talking heads should stop talking about the parity in college basketball every time a ranked team loses and start saying we suck at ranking teams.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 20, 2019 9:02:20 GMT -5
FWIW, KenPom himself has been pushing back against this argument that his ratings aren't effective until the preseason ratings no longer apply. He basically lines up the mid december AP poll and compares to the year end AP poll and the mid December KenPom ratings and compares to the end of year KenPom ratings historically. They both average having 17 out of the 25 end of year teams in common w the mid December numbers. Maybe it's more an indictment of any December ratings but it's interesting that his overlap is no worse than the polls despite leveraging some amount of preseason ratings at this point. Neither should be considered particularly accurate in mid-December.
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Highsmith
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Post by Highsmith on Dec 20, 2019 10:42:54 GMT -5
I posted some of this in another thread, but on the issue of offense (calculated manually by me): Pre-Transfer: 117 3PT Attempts/531 possessions = 22.03% threes Post-Transfer: 75 3PT Attempts/215 possessions = 34.41% threes 3PT Shooting Percentage Pre-Transfer: 33.33% 3PT Shooting Percentage Post-Transfer: 45.95% When you look at the fact that we are taking a lot more threes and making more, it becomes easy to see why we improved. Plus, Akinjo was our worst two point shooter, so it's not to see why we have improved. While Akinjo was good at free throws, everyone else shoots them well, and McClung draws a lot too, so that is not missed much. For what it's worth, the 45.95% three point shooting isn't sustainable - with the old line, the best teams were usually in the 42% range. So, either we cool down, or we will be one of the best shooting teams in the country. On free throws, though, we are taking fewer post-transfer: Pre-Transfer: 117 FTA/531 possessions = 33.71% of possessions were FTAs Post-Transfer: 75 FTA Attempts/215 possessions = 25.58% of possessions were FTAs. Makes sense we are taking less FT as our 3PT attempts go up. Hopefully if those 3 pointers stop falling we start to drive more and get back to the line more. Our offense seems to be getting guys much better shots so maybe we can keep hitting at a strong percentage.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 20, 2019 11:15:24 GMT -5
The last 4 games we have been shooting 3s at a 43.3% rate. If that is our true capability in this new situation and can sustain, that would put us in the top 3 in the country. Simply keeping it above 40% would put us in the Top 20 in this metric.
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