jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 11, 2019 13:00:04 GMT -5
I was really curious about the data that Casual Hoya used to write the article about minutes on their site recently. Apparently, he used HoopsLens which provides a suite of analytics tools. I purchased a subscription to enjoy for the season.
I need to dig into them, and I am still very much a beginner, but I thought I would start a thread for those interested in discussing analytics based topics
I will post some initial observations later tonight.
Here is a tease:
Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year?
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Nov 11, 2019 13:17:05 GMT -5
I was really curious about the data that Casual Hoya used to write the article about minutes on their site recently. Apparently, he used HoopsLens which provides a suite of analytics tools. I purchased a subscription to enjoy for the season. I need to dig into them, and I am still very much a beginner, but I thought I would start a thread for those interested in discussing analytics based topics I will post some initial observations later tonight. Here is a tease: Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? I would say Mosely & Yurt7...
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TC
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Post by TC on Nov 11, 2019 13:40:51 GMT -5
Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? Who cares because we're only talking about a sample size of 1 game?
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 11, 2019 14:08:57 GMT -5
Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? Who cares because we're only talking about a sample size of 1 game? Well, it is two games or roughly 150 possessions- basically 6% of the regular season. However, the question of sample sizes is a good one that I need to think more about. I am mainly curious what shows up so far, and that was just a question to start a conversation.
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Nov 11, 2019 14:46:27 GMT -5
I was really curious about the data that Casual Hoya used to write the article about minutes on their site recently. Apparently, he used HoopsLens which provides a suite of analytics tools. I purchased a subscription to enjoy for the season. I need to dig into them, and I am still very much a beginner, but I thought I would start a thread for those interested in discussing analytics based topics I will post some initial observations later tonight. Here is a tease: Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? It's definitely Mosely and someone, agree Yurt7 was a good guess EtomicB, I'll say Mosely / Pickett. Awesome that you got the subscription. Will be very curious for the splits of Mac / Akinjo (together, both off court, 1 of them on court) over time
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 11, 2019 14:57:29 GMT -5
I was really curious about the data that Casual Hoya used to write the article about minutes on their site recently. Apparently, he used HoopsLens which provides a suite of analytics tools. I purchased a subscription to enjoy for the season. I need to dig into them, and I am still very much a beginner, but I thought I would start a thread for those interested in discussing analytics based topics I will post some initial observations later tonight. Here is a tease: Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? FYI, Casual posted that article, but I do not believe he authored it but it's really unclear. He says in the subtitle "Casual contributor hoyasbreakdown" wrote it. I am going to see how much it costs to join HoopLens, too, as I think I'd really enjoy the stats, too, and while I have a KenPom subscription, which is great, it doesn't cover this stuff. Thanks for starting the thread.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2019 15:38:23 GMT -5
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 11, 2019 16:50:50 GMT -5
Obviously, this is an extremely small sample size, but if the trends hold (and some probably won't), it would support my opinion that we really do not have much depth beyond Mosely, Akinjo, LeBlanc, Pickett, Yurtseven, and McClung. I am pleasantly surprised to see Wahab's defense so strong, I hope that continues. And Allen probably needs to shoot a bit less and defend a bit more. It's not surprising he's the best individual defender (given how good he was at UCF), and he needs to play as a result.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Nov 11, 2019 17:23:36 GMT -5
Obviously, this is an extremely small sample size, but if the trends hold (and some probably won't), it would support my opinion that we really do not have much depth beyond Mosely, Akinjo, LeBlanc, Pickett, Yurtseven, and McClung. I am pleasantly surprised to see Wahab's defense so strong, I hope that continues. And Allen probably needs to shoot a bit less and defend a bit more. It's not surprising he's the best individual defender (given how good he was at UCF), and he needs to play as a result. These numbers also show Ewing's first line/second line pretty starkly, so I'm not sure how much you can discount players like Allen and Alexander yet. Without having the lineup data in front of me, it feels like only Wahab has gotten a decent amount of run with the starting "6" (akinjo, mcclung, mosely, pickett, leblanc, yurtseven). Allen almost exclusively plays with the second line. Pretty sure the same with Gardner. Blair might have some time with both, but the majority seems to have been with the second line.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 11, 2019 17:45:19 GMT -5
These numbers also show Ewing's first line/second line pretty starkly, so I'm not sure how much you can discount players like Allen and Alexander yet. Without having the lineup data in front of me, it feels like only Wahab has gotten a decent amount of run with the starting "6" (akinjo, mcclung, mosely, pickett, leblanc, yurtseven). Allen almost exclusively plays with the second line. Pretty sure the same with Gardner. Blair might have some time with both, but the majority seems to have been with the second line. I agree. I'd like to see lineups like: Akinjo-Allen-Mosely-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Allen-McClung-Mosely-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Akinjo-Allen-Pickett-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Allen-McClung-Pickett-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Akinjo-McClung-Alexander-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Akinjo-McClung-Gardner-LeBlanc-Yurtseven The guards in these lineups are somewhat interchangeable. The bigger concept is to play Allen/Alexander/Gardner/Blair with the "first unit." Ewing does not seem to like small-ball much, but I wouldn't mind seeing these types of lineups either: Akinjo-Mosely-Alexander-Pickett-LeBlanc (still decent size) Akinjo-Mosely-Allen-Pickett-LeBlanc (if you wanted to go really small) Against teams without a legitimate center, there's really no need to worry about LeBlanc playing there. And a lot of teams don't play a traditional PF either, so in the right situations, I think these lineups could be effective.
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professorhoya
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 11, 2019 17:52:15 GMT -5
I was really curious about the data that Casual Hoya used to write the article about minutes on their site recently. Apparently, he used HoopsLens which provides a suite of analytics tools. I purchased a subscription to enjoy for the season. I need to dig into them, and I am still very much a beginner, but I thought I would start a thread for those interested in discussing analytics based topics I will post some initial observations later tonight. Here is a tease: Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? Double Yurt7 and Mosley
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Nov 11, 2019 17:57:42 GMT -5
These numbers also show Ewing's first line/second line pretty starkly, so I'm not sure how much you can discount players like Allen and Alexander yet. Without having the lineup data in front of me, it feels like only Wahab has gotten a decent amount of run with the starting "6" (akinjo, mcclung, mosely, pickett, leblanc, yurtseven). Allen almost exclusively plays with the second line. Pretty sure the same with Gardner. Blair might have some time with both, but the majority seems to have been with the second line. I agree. I'd like to see lineups like: Akinjo-Allen-Mosely-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Allen-McClung-Mosely-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Akinjo-Allen-Pickett-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Allen-McClung-Pickett-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Akinjo-McClung-Alexander-LeBlanc-Yurtseven Akinjo-McClung-Gardner-LeBlanc-Yurtseven The guards in these lineups are somewhat interchangeable. The bigger concept is to play Allen/Alexander/Gardner/Blair with the "first unit." Ewing does not seem to like small-ball much, but I wouldn't mind seeing these types of lineups either: Akinjo-Mosely-Alexander-Pickett-LeBlanc (still decent size) Akinjo-Mosely-Allen-Pickett-LeBlanc (if you wanted to go really small) Against teams without a legitimate center, there's really no need to worry about LeBlanc playing there. And a lot of teams don't play a traditional PF either, so in the right situations, I think these lineups could be effective. Exactly. Until we have meaningful minutes with some of the bench players playing with 3-4 starters, I feel like it's hard to use stats like PPP to quantify their contributions. I also feel like while PPP is useful, it also has its limitations. Which is why the article that hoyabreakdown posted on Casual Hoya felt like it was kind of incomplete to me.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Nov 11, 2019 18:09:36 GMT -5
Considering most of the guys on the bench are players who are getting to know Ewing's system for the very first time, should this be a surprise?
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 11, 2019 21:39:24 GMT -5
: Which two players when combined together produce the highest point per possession differential with a minimum of 6 possessions so far this year? So the answer to the trivia is Akinjo & Gardner with a differential of .81 PPP over 16 offensive possessions (roughly 10% of the season to date) if the Hooplens site can be trusted. I am not sure if Myron is the beneficiary of being on the court when James went off or if he is a great tandem pairing to Akinjo in a full court press. Maybe someone can go back to the MSM game and watch Akinjo go off and see what role Gardner plays. Note Gardner is in 3 of the 5 worst tandem pairing with Alexander, Allen, and Mac. So it is interesting that he shows up in the strongest pairing too. If I am interpreting the site correctly, Yurt and Jagan have a PPP differential of .29 over a larger sample of almost 70 possessions. I believe that is a top 10 pairing.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 12, 2019 9:39:38 GMT -5
So do we have any statistical gurus on the site?
In a few minutes of internet research, I found info on how to calculate a sample size with a margin of error and confidence level. So if you wanted to understand how current Hoya students thought about a particular issue, you could determine how many current students to survey to find an answer with a margin for error and confidence interval. It brings back old memories of Professor Winkler.
How would you apply this to basketball analytics? Let’s use Myron Gardner as an example for the sake of conversation. The Hoyas have played in 166 offensive possessions and Myron has played in 47 of them. Let’s say the Hoyas were expected to play in 2,500 possessions (i.e. the population of Hoyas’ possessions in 19/20) this season of which Gardner would play in a some subset of those possessions which may be higher or lower depending upon a number of circumstances. Note these 2,500 possessions in which Gardner could play as a Hoya this season would be different than the population of basketball possessions Gardner could play in any game in 19/20 as a Hoya or non-Hoya (e.g. pick-up) which would be different than the population of possessions that Gardner would play as a collegian or over a career. So what is the rigorous way to think about how much data you need about Myron before drawing statistically significant conclusions?
Thanks in advance.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Nov 12, 2019 10:23:48 GMT -5
I applaud your effort!
There's no right answer to your question. Shoot, 20 or even 30 games isn't a huge sample size. That is, it's still small enough that two or three game outliers can make meaningful differences.
All you should really do is look for trends -- and use the statistics you see that seem surprising as a means to questioning assumptions and diving back into game film. That's what the best coaches do. That you can do at any point regardless of sample size.
The biggest thing I'd say is that you're obviously right to look at per possession numbers, but you also need to attempt to account for opponent strength rather than pure per possession metrics. Simply put: A center dominating a smaller player from the MAAC may be meaningless come conference play -- statistics be darned.
On edit: The pairings numbers you provided are a perfect example. You'd really need to look at the possessions with Akinjo (and see how many there were and what each did) to see if the numbers meant anything. They may. They may not.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 12, 2019 10:33:10 GMT -5
I applaud your effort! There's no right answer to your question. Shoot, 20 or even 30 games isn't a huge sample size. That is, it's still small enough that two or three game outliers can make meaningful differences. All you should really do is look for trends -- and use the statistics you see that seem surprising as a means to questioning assumptions and diving back into game film. That's what the best coaches do. That you can do at any point regardless of sample size. The biggest thing I'd say is that you're obviously right to look at per possession numbers, but you also need to attempt to account for opponent strength rather than pure per possession metrics. Simply put: A center dominating a smaller player from the MAAC may be meaningless come conference play -- statistics be darned. On edit: The pairings numbers you provided are a perfect example. You'd really need to look at the possessions with Akinjo (and see how many there were and what each did) to see if the numbers meant anything. They may. They may not. Thanks. That is what I thought. Another tool to get a ‘data supported’ perspective that you can cross reference to what you see with your eyes
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Nov 12, 2019 11:46:17 GMT -5
I applaud your effort! There's no right answer to your question. Shoot, 20 or even 30 games isn't a huge sample size. That is, it's still small enough that two or three game outliers can make meaningful differences. All you should really do is look for trends -- and use the statistics you see that seem surprising as a means to questioning assumptions and diving back into game film. That's what the best coaches do. That you can do at any point regardless of sample size. The biggest thing I'd say is that you're obviously right to look at per possession numbers, but you also need to attempt to account for opponent strength rather than pure per possession metrics. Simply put: A center dominating a smaller player from the MAAC may be meaningless come conference play -- statistics be darned. On edit: The pairings numbers you provided are a perfect example. You'd really need to look at the possessions with Akinjo (and see how many there were and what each did) to see if the numbers meant anything. They may. They may not. Thanks. That is what I thought. Another tool to get a ‘data supported’ perspective that you can cross reference to what you see with your eyes Not to send you down a rabbit hole but there is a point in the season when kenpom moves from preseason projection / prior season results to only this season results. I dont have a subscription but I believe he has said that in the past. That would be a reasonable proxy for when this season alone has a significant sample size.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 12, 2019 12:26:25 GMT -5
Right now, the sample sizes are so small, it's easy for the PPP numbers to change. For example, let's say McClung goes off and has a great game against Penn State, it would drastically change his offensive PPP numbers. Of course, as we get further into the season, it's more meaningful.
I have always found one of the most useful aspects of stats like PPP or the KenPom style advanced stats is that they often show you things that can be easily missed with the naked eye. A good example is turnovers - oftentimes, turnovers happen really quickly and it's not even always evident who turned it over depending on the TV angles, etc., not to mention it's hard to track the number of turnovers live. By being able to look at tempo-free stats, it's easier to identify certain issues, etc.
And, in other instances, it merely confirms what can be seen. For example, LeBlanc essentially outplayed Mourning last year from Day 1, and the stats confirmed that (and probably confirm Mourning played way too much, but that's another issue).
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Nov 12, 2019 13:14:08 GMT -5
Thanks. That is what I thought. Another tool to get a ‘data supported’ perspective that you can cross reference to what you see with your eyes Not to send you down a rabbit hole but there is a point in the season when kenpom moves from preseason projection / prior season results to only this season results. I dont have a subscription but I believe he has said that in the past. That would be a reasonable proxy for when this season alone has a significant sample size. I was aware of that...and that is a great idea. I am sure that Ken has figured that out.
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