GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 20, 2019 11:56:58 GMT -5
The last 4 games we have been shooting 3s at a 43.3% rate. If that is our true capability in this new situation and can sustain, that would put us in the top 3 in the country. Simply keeping it above 40% would put us in the Top 20 in this metric. I think in the first 7 games everyone not named James Akinjo shot close to 41%. So this isn't a fluke. The team ex-Akinjo has been shooting well all year.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Dec 20, 2019 23:04:50 GMT -5
Interesting!
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 20, 2019 23:48:40 GMT -5
I did a quick set of calculations, and it looks like prior to Akinjo leaving, the rest of the team was shooting 36.7% from 3. Still very decent (and I think our best percentage in recent years), but nothing like the 43% now. I haven’t done the numbers if you look at just the guys left on our roster, but it’s possible they were closer to 40.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 21, 2019 0:03:13 GMT -5
The last 4 games we have been shooting 3s at a 43.3% rate. If that is our true capability in this new situation and can sustain, that would put us in the top 3 in the country. Simply keeping it above 40% would put us in the Top 20 in this metric. I think in the first 7 games everyone not named James Akinjo shot close to 41%. So this isn't a fluke. The team ex-Akinjo has been shooting well all year. Here are the numbers through 7 games from 3 for the guards & wings left on the team... Pickett - 6-12 Mosely - 5-9 Mac - 9-25 Blair - 3-16 Allen - 0-3 23 of 65 = 35.3%Last 4 games are as follows Pickett - 2-5 Mosely - 6-12 Mac - 12-27 Blair - 14-29 Allen - 3-8 37 of 81 = 45.6%Side note - Yurtseven took 3 against OSU but hasn't taken another in the next 3 games...
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Dec 21, 2019 7:09:18 GMT -5
So mostly people still where they were before except for Allen and Blair. Allen was probably too small a sample with just three 3s before. The revaluation is Blair- which is obvious to anyone watching - but the numbers make it just off the page.
If this is his real capacity - wow
I’m excited for the team and for us fans - but it’s also hard not to be super excited for him. Hope he keeps it up
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 21, 2019 7:15:59 GMT -5
So mostly people still where they were before except for Allen and Blair. Allen was probably too small a sample with just three 3s before. The revaluation is Blair- which is obvious to anyone watching - but the numbers make it just off the page. If this is his real capacity - wow I’m excited for the team and for us fans - but it’s also hard not to be super excited for him. Hope he keeps it up I think the shooting well 43% or better can be the real capacity when we are working together and taking good shots in rhythmr. If we start chucking, then I imagine the real capacity number can be much lower. I was surprised when a bunch of posters gave up so quickly on Blair earlier this season because I thought he had shown us that he could light it up when he finds his shot..
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 21, 2019 7:39:34 GMT -5
So mostly people still where they were before except for Allen and Blair. Allen was probably too small a sample with just three 3s before. The revaluation is Blair- which is obvious to anyone watching - but the numbers make it just off the page. If this is his real capacity - wow I’m excited for the team and for us fans - but it’s also hard not to be super excited for him. Hope he keeps it up I think the shooting well 43% or better can be the real capacity when we are working together and taking good shots in rhythmr. If we start chucking, then I imagine the real capacity number can be much lower. I was surprised when a bunch of posters gave up so quickly on Blair earlier this season because I thought he had shown us that he could light it up when he finds his shot.. Right, its not like he's coming out of nowhere. And as the least diverse scorer, you would expect the lack of rhythm catch-and-shoot chances early in the season to affect him the most. Lets hope it continues today.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 11:08:34 GMT -5
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 31, 2019 10:28:31 GMT -5
So far this season the Hoyas have played roughly 1,000 possessions averaging 1.05 PPP on offense and .93 PPP on defense.
Mac, Mosely, and Allen have played approximately 200 possessions together (almost all of which were post Akinjo tranfer) and average 1.25 PPP on offense and .81 PPP on defense. It sure is working.
Post Akinjo transfer, the Hoyas are averaging 1.16 PPP on offense and .92 PPP on defense.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Dec 31, 2019 17:06:48 GMT -5
So far this season the Hoyas have played roughly 1,000 possessions averaging 1.05 PPP on offense and .93 PPP on defense. Mac, Mosely, and Allen have played approximately 200 possessions together (almost all of which were post Akinjo tranfer) and average 1.25 PPP on offense and .81 PPP on defense. It sure is working. Post Akinjo transfer, the Hoyas are averaging 1.16 PPP on offense and .92 PPP on defense. How many without Mac and with Allen, Mosely and Blair?
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Dec 31, 2019 17:26:59 GMT -5
So far this season the Hoyas have played roughly 1,000 possessions averaging 1.05 PPP on offense and .93 PPP on defense. Mac, Mosely, and Allen have played approximately 200 possessions together (almost all of which were post Akinjo tranfer) and average 1.25 PPP on offense and .81 PPP on defense. It sure is working. Post Akinjo transfer, the Hoyas are averaging 1.16 PPP on offense and .92 PPP on defense. How many without Mac and with Allen, Mosely and Blair? Full season 112 poss. .96/.85 Post Akinjo 95 poss. 1.04/.86.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Jan 1, 2020 0:13:41 GMT -5
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madgesiq92
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Post by madgesiq92 on Jan 1, 2020 16:23:28 GMT -5
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 13, 2020 18:37:17 GMT -5
Cross-Posting this from the Creighton thread, since it might fit here better: prhoya had an interesting post about Mosely and shooting, so here are some stats about it. I calculated the number of field goal attempts per 40 minutes, that way it corrects for the amount of time played. Ideally, you'd do this by possession, but I don't have access to that info per player. Still, this should be a close approximation (calculated as (FGA/MIN)*40): Timothy Ighoefe 22.9 (he's only played 14 minutes, so this is largely meaningless) Mac McClung 19.5 Omer Yurtseven 18.4 Jahvon Blair 14.9 Jamorko Pickett 11.3 Qudus Wahab 10.0 Terrell Allen 8.2 Jagan Mosely 5.0 So this basically confirms what we thought. Per 40 minutes played, McClung and Yurtseven take similar amounts of shots, and Mosely by far takes the fewest shot attempts on the team. Now, on to three point shots per 40 minutes ((3PA/MIN)*40): Jahvon Blair 10.3 Mac McClung 7.1 Jamorko Pickett 3.1 Jagan Mosely 2.5 Terrell Allen 2.1 Omer Yurtseven 0.6 Qudus Wahab 0.0 Timothy Ighoefe 0.0 In a lot of ways, this chart shows why we are struggling on offense. Basically, nobody but Blair and McClung are taking threes, and they are shooting 34.2% and 34.7%, respectively. Instead, Pickett is shooting way less, but 40.5%, and Mosely is at 48.5%. Lastly, on to two point attempts per 40 minutes ((3PA/MIN)*40): Timothy Ighoefe 22.9 (again, low minutes) Omer Yurtseven 17.8 Mac McClung 12.4 Qudus Wahab 10.0 Jamorko Pickett 8.2 Jahvon Blair 4.6 Terrell Allen 6.1 Jagan Mosely 2.6 Nothing really surprising here, though McClung actually takes fewer twos than one might think. Again, Mosely takes virtually no shots.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 13, 2020 18:42:23 GMT -5
In a lot of ways, this chart shows why we are struggling on offense. Basically, nobody but Blair and McClung are taking threes, and they are shooting 34.2% and 34.7%, respectively. Instead, Pickett is shooting way less, but 40.5%, and Mosely is at 48.5%. 2003, thanks for the numbers. From a look at the game logs, Pickett has increased his 3FGAs noticeably in the last two games - 6 3s in each - versus the SHU game where he had 1 3FGA. Looks like Pat has given Pickett the green light and is pushing him. I like.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Jan 14, 2020 13:20:18 GMT -5
Cross-Posting this from the Creighton thread, since it might fit here better: prhoya had an interesting post about Mosely and shooting, so here are some stats about it. I calculated the number of field goal attempts per 40 minutes, that way it corrects for the amount of time played. Ideally, you'd do this by possession, but I don't have access to that info per player. Still, this should be a close approximation (calculated as (FGA/MIN)*40): Timothy Ighoefe 22.9 (he's only played 14 minutes, so this is largely meaningless) Mac McClung 19.5 Omer Yurtseven 18.4 Jahvon Blair 14.9 Jamorko Pickett 11.3 Qudus Wahab 10.0 Terrell Allen 8.2 Jagan Mosely 5.0 So this basically confirms what we thought. Per 40 minutes played, McClung and Yurtseven take similar amounts of shots, and Mosely by far takes the fewest shot attempts on the team. Now, on to three point shots per 40 minutes ((3PA/MIN)*40): Jahvon Blair 10.3 Mac McClung 7.1 Jamorko Pickett 3.1 Jagan Mosely 2.5 Terrell Allen 2.1 Omer Yurtseven 0.6 Qudus Wahab 0.0 Timothy Ighoefe 0.0 In a lot of ways, this chart shows why we are struggling on offense. Basically, nobody but Blair and McClung are taking threes, and they are shooting 34.2% and 34.7%, respectively. Instead, Pickett is shooting way less, but 40.5%, and Mosely is at 48.5%. Lastly, on to two point attempts per 40 minutes ((3PA/MIN)*40): Timothy Ighoefe 22.9 (again, low minutes) Omer Yurtseven 17.8 Mac McClung 12.4 Qudus Wahab 10.0 Jamorko Pickett 8.2 Jahvon Blair 4.6 Terrell Allen 6.1 Jagan Mosely 2.6 Nothing really surprising here, though McClung actually takes fewer twos than one might think. Again, Mosely takes virtually no shots. Great stuff! Thanks for sharing. One thing that confounds the analysis is that Allen, Mosely, and Pickett tend to shoot 3s very selectively, and usually only when they are wide open, spotted up on the 3-point line. Hence, the higher shooting percentage. On the other hand, McClung and Blair shoot more frequently under defensive pressure, shot-clock pressure, and also from deeper distance. Thus, I think it is a bit of a straw man to say that Mosely and Pickett should shoot more 3s because of their higher shooting percentage. If they shot more frequently and under pressure, their shooting percentages most likely would decline significantly.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Jan 14, 2020 13:59:28 GMT -5
Cross-Posting this from the Creighton thread, since it might fit here better: prhoya had an interesting post about Mosely and shooting, so here are some stats about it. I calculated the number of field goal attempts per 40 minutes, that way it corrects for the amount of time played. Ideally, you'd do this by possession, but I don't have access to that info per player. Still, this should be a close approximation (calculated as (FGA/MIN)*40): Timothy Ighoefe 22.9 (he's only played 14 minutes, so this is largely meaningless) Mac McClung 19.5 Omer Yurtseven 18.4 Jahvon Blair 14.9 Jamorko Pickett 11.3 Qudus Wahab 10.0 Terrell Allen 8.2 Jagan Mosely 5.0 So this basically confirms what we thought. Per 40 minutes played, McClung and Yurtseven take similar amounts of shots, and Mosely by far takes the fewest shot attempts on the team. Now, on to three point shots per 40 minutes ((3PA/MIN)*40): Jahvon Blair 10.3 Mac McClung 7.1 Jamorko Pickett 3.1 Jagan Mosely 2.5 Terrell Allen 2.1 Omer Yurtseven 0.6 Qudus Wahab 0.0 Timothy Ighoefe 0.0 In a lot of ways, this chart shows why we are struggling on offense. Basically, nobody but Blair and McClung are taking threes, and they are shooting 34.2% and 34.7%, respectively. Instead, Pickett is shooting way less, but 40.5%, and Mosely is at 48.5%. Lastly, on to two point attempts per 40 minutes ((3PA/MIN)*40): Timothy Ighoefe 22.9 (again, low minutes) Omer Yurtseven 17.8 Mac McClung 12.4 Qudus Wahab 10.0 Jamorko Pickett 8.2 Jahvon Blair 4.6 Terrell Allen 6.1 Jagan Mosely 2.6 Nothing really surprising here, though McClung actually takes fewer twos than one might think. Again, Mosely takes virtually no shots. Great stuff! Thanks for sharing. One thing that confounds the analysis is that Allen, Mosely, and Pickett tend to shoot 3s very selectively, and usually only when they are wide open, spotted up on the 3-point line. Hence, the higher shooting percentage. On the other hand, McClung and Blair shoot more frequently under defensive pressure, shot-clock pressure, and also from deeper distance. Thus, I think it is a bit of a straw man to say that Mosely and Pickett should shoot more 3s because of their higher shooting percentage. If they shot more frequently and under pressure, their shooting percentages most likely would decline significantly. I think the argument is more that Pickett and Mosely need to shoot more aggressively when they are open or have space then they do. Not significantly more, but more. If Jagan took 10 shots per 40min, it would help the offense more. Having him aggressive and ready to shoot, opens up this offense more and makes the defense stay honest on everyone. It opens up driving lanes and if he is not passing up looks, the offense looks much better. Once someone passes up an open look in a fast paced system and it's not straight into a better look, the offense slows down and typically doesn't score and the Hoyas lose some control over the pace. I don't think anyone expects him to take 15 shots a game, nor should anyone. But if he's playing his game more aggressively and allowing the offense to control the pace while shooting more, it would benefit everyone.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jan 14, 2020 14:32:25 GMT -5
Thus, I think it is a bit of a straw man to say that Mosely and Pickett should shoot more 3s because of their higher shooting percentage. If they shot more frequently and under pressure, their shooting percentages most likely would decline significantly. Your guess is as good as mine. I'm going to say that if Mosely ends up with anything over 40% 3FG, it is still awesome for the team. But what cannot happen is to have a senior guard with a great average, good height and good bounce not try a 3FGA in 37 minutes. That takes us back to the JT3 days when we played 2-vs-5 on offense. Just like in those years, there's no one to replace this not-shooting guard. Here's the total 3FGA-3FGM distribution for the Nova game: Pickett - 2 of 6 Mac - 0 of 4 Mosely - 0 of 0 Allen - 2 of 2 Blair - 1 of 4 Do you really think Mosely couldn't get one shot off, but the other 4 players who play his positions could? The numbers don't lie. He plays it too safe vs. the best competition. That said, he will get a chance to redeem himself vs. #25 Creighton at home and I think he will. As to Pickett, he's had two 6 3FGA games in a row after shooting just 1 vs. SHU. He's at 41% for the season. From the looks of it, Pat has given him the green light.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 14, 2020 15:05:31 GMT -5
It definitely would be logical that if Pickett/Mosely took more shots that their shooting percentages would go down (though that does not always happen). The thing is, it's a matter of degree. For example, if Mosely was high frequency, but shooting 41 or 42% he'd be worth a lot more than if he takes a handful of shots at 48.5%.
And, I say that as a guy who loves efficiency. Listen, if Mosely took 4 three point shots a game, instead of an average of 2.5 and his shooting percentage fell from 48.5% to let's say 35%, then sure, he should go back to shooting less. But I find that highly improbable. You have to find the sweet spot, and I think Mosely shoots so little we have no idea where that might lie.
If Mosely was just a bench guy, I'd say it's less of a big deal. But, when you have a starter who barely shoots, it's a problem for the offense. If you shoot threes at .40%, the expected value of a three point shot is 1.2 points per shot. If you don't shoot at all, the expected value of the shot is 0.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Jan 14, 2020 17:09:20 GMT -5
It definitely would be logical that if Pickett/Mosely took more shots that their shooting percentages would go down (though that does not always happen). The thing is, it's a matter of degree. For example, if Mosely was high frequency, but shooting 41 or 42% he'd be worth a lot more than if he takes a handful of shots at 48.5%. And, I say that as a guy who loves efficiency. Listen, if Mosely took 4 three point shots a game, instead of an average of 2.5 and his shooting percentage fell from 48.5% to let's say 35%, then sure, he should go back to shooting less. But I find that highly improbable. You have to find the sweet spot, and I think Mosely shoots so little we have no idea where that might lie. If Mosely was just a bench guy, I'd say it's less of a big deal. But, when you have a starter who barely shoots, it's a problem for the offense. If you shoot threes at .40%, the expected value of a three point shot is 1.2 points per shot. If you don't shoot at all, the expected value of the shot is 0. To me this is all theory in numbers, I would assume that no one wants Jagan to force shots so wouldn't we need to know approx. how many open shots Jagan is actually passing up in a game? Also what happened on those alleged "pass up" possessions matter as well right? Also how many plays are ever run for 48% Jagan? He can't get threes on his own... Plays are run for Mac, Yurtseven, Pickett & Blair even Wahab gets to post up but has there ever been a play run for Jagan to get up a shot? To me we need to have game examples to really evaluate what effect Jagan’s lack of shooting actually has on the offense... The numbers don't lie but the perception they can give off does a lot of the time...
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