Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Filo on Mar 15, 2019 12:14:36 GMT -5
Congrats to the owner for getting 46 pages out of this. If you wonder why some bracketologist put the Hoyas in when it seems improbable remember this thread. I started the thread and if you go back to the original article I posted you would understand the point wasn't whether we had a realistic shot. Being on the periphery of the bubble is progress for this program and I for one enjoyed being able to discuss the tournament even though it was always a long shot. No need to defend yourself against d-baggery!
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hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Suspended
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 15, 2019 12:36:03 GMT -5
Congrats to the owner for getting 46 pages out of this. If you wonder why some bracketologist put the Hoyas in when it seems improbable remember this thread. I started the thread and if you go back to the original article I posted you would understand the point wasn't whether we had a realistic shot. Being on the periphery of the bubble is progress for this program and I for one enjoyed being able to discuss the tournament even though it was always a long shot. It was meant to be a tongue in cheek joke about this fan base just clamoring at any glimmer of hope. I enjoyed all of the hoping and blind reasoning that came from it. Thanks for starting it.
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blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,808
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 15, 2019 14:33:48 GMT -5
Bottom line is that had we closed out the Syracuse the SJU game as we should have ...we’d be having a very different discussion. We were close.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 15, 2019 15:13:02 GMT -5
Bottom line is that had we closed out the Syracuse the SJU game as we should have ...we’d be having a very different discussion. We were close. Or just winning the two we should've, SMU and LMU. Take those two and we're in imo. Bad losses and the impact on NET were brutal.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 15, 2019 15:56:24 GMT -5
We were better this year. We will be better next year. Better schedule, better team, better results.
Selection Sunday will be when and where, not if.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 15, 2019 22:58:35 GMT -5
I don't know if this is the right place to put it, but it would be nice of our social media teams did something like what UNCG is doing. Just to get some people engaged and talking about Georgetown, other than those who would do it regardless. Also, UNCG deserves an at-large bid, there a very good team.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 15, 2019 23:39:16 GMT -5
I don't know if this is the right place to put it, but it would be nice of our social media teams did something like what UNCG is doing. Just to get some people engaged and talking about Georgetown, other than those who would do it regardless. Also, UNCG deserves an at-large bid, there a very good team. Too busy focusing on #golegend and Instagramming starting lineups for that.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2019 8:50:57 GMT -5
If you want to see how NC State is doing this and the limitations of adjusted efficiency compare the Hoyas to...the Hoyas.
The headline overall offensive efficiency numbers between 2018 and 2019 are almost identical (109.7 vs 109.3 yes our offense was "better" last year).
In conference? 102.2 vs 106.5 (highest since 2010 this year).
That's the kind of NET boost NC State is getting from its dead-last schedule. The teams are so out-atheleted that the adjustment can't make up for the raw efficiency numbers. If the NCAA doesn't want dead last schedules, NC State should be a 6 seed in the NIT.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 16, 2019 9:29:18 GMT -5
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 16, 2019 9:31:15 GMT -5
Gonna be very interesting to see how they piece it together.
The ACC teams have very few good wins. But also no bad losses. The mid majors have excellent metrics and great records but few excellent wins. The BE teams have poor overall metrics but tons of Q1 wins. Heck, if Q1 wins were the sole criteria, we would get a bid even now.
If they just use almost straight NET, the results will be incredibly revolutionary when compared to past selections.
And, no, I'm not saying there's anymore than the proverbial "hope they put the wrong numbers down on the team sheet" chance of getting in.....
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Mar 16, 2019 10:20:57 GMT -5
Gonna be very interesting to see how they piece it together. The ACC teams have very few good wins. But also no bad losses. The mid majors have excellent metrics and great records but few excellent wins. The BE teams have poor overall metrics but tons of Q1 wins. Heck, if Q1 wins were the sole criteria, we would get a bid even now. If they just use almost straight NET, the results will be incredibly revolutionary when compared to past selections. And, no, I'm not saying there's anymore than the proverbial "hope they put the wrong numbers down on the team sheet" chance of getting in..... I don't know about no bad losses for NCSU who lost to Wake Forest (183 NET, 175 RPI) and Georgia Tech (124 NET, 152 RPI). Clemson would seem to be in better position there (worst loss to Miami 93 NET, 127 RPI). The astounding thing to me is that NCSU still only beat 4 teams with winning records (Auburn, Clemson x2, and Syracuse) all at home except Clemson on a neutral floor. Easy to get to 22 wins when your OOC wins have the following records: 7-22 5-25 2-26 4-27 10-22 9-20 9-23 6-25 14-18 23-9 3-26 11-21 Also explains how you get your offensive and defensive efficiencies to look so gaudy.
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by drquigley on Mar 16, 2019 10:44:10 GMT -5
St John's should be excluded just based on a new "Overall Talent v. Results" metric. If ever a team underperformed and showed a complete lack of discipline, coaching and smarts the Johnnies are it. The BE deserves 4 invites, Marquette, Villanova, Seton Hall and Xavier. Giving an invite to St. John's would be a slap in the face to the lower rung BE teams who beat them this year.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,920
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Post by Filo on Mar 16, 2019 11:19:18 GMT -5
Gonna be very interesting to see how they piece it together. The ACC teams have very few good wins. But also no bad losses. The mid majors have excellent metrics and great records but few excellent wins. The BE teams have poor overall metrics but tons of Q1 wins. Heck, if Q1 wins were the sole criteria, we would get a bid even now. If they just use almost straight NET, the results will be incredibly revolutionary when compared to past selections. And, no, I'm not saying there's anymore than the proverbial "hope they put the wrong numbers down on the team sheet" chance of getting in..... I don't know about no bad losses for NCSU who lost to Wake Forest (183 NET, 175 RPI) and Georgia Tech (124 NET, 152 RPI). Clemson would seem to be in better position there (worst loss to Miami 93 NET, 127 RPI). The astounding thing to me is that NCSU still only beat 4 teams with winning records (Auburn, Clemson x2, and Syracuse) all at home except Clemson on a neutral floor. Easy to get to 22 wins when your OOC wins have the following records: 7-22 5-25 2-26 4-27 10-22 9-20 9-23 6-25 14-18 23-9 3-26 11-21 Also explains how you get your offensive and defensive efficiencies to look so gaudy. Stealing a bunch of his for a tweet or two. It’s a travesty if NC State gets in based on this.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Mar 16, 2019 11:28:34 GMT -5
I don't know about no bad losses for NCSU who lost to Wake Forest (183 NET, 175 RPI) and Georgia Tech (124 NET, 152 RPI). Clemson would seem to be in better position there (worst loss to Miami 93 NET, 127 RPI). The astounding thing to me is that NCSU still only beat 4 teams with winning records (Auburn, Clemson x2, and Syracuse) all at home except Clemson on a neutral floor. Easy to get to 22 wins when your OOC wins have the following records: 7-22 5-25 2-26 4-27 10-22 9-20 9-23 6-25 14-18 23-9 3-26 11-21 Also explains how you get your offensive and defensive efficiencies to look so gaudy. Stealing a bunch of his for a tweet or two. It’s a travesty if NC State gets in based on this. PM me your twitter so I can follow that discussion, lol
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Mar 16, 2019 12:05:40 GMT -5
Stealing a bunch of his for a tweet or two. It’s a travesty if NC State gets in based on this. PM me your twitter so I can follow that discussion, lol If it helps, here is the record of those teams they beat in conference: 14-18 14-19 19-13 14-19 20-13 14-17 11-20 14-17 ACC Tourney: 19-13 Total record of teams they beat: 242-413. Total win % of .369 and an average opponent record in their 22 wins of 11-19.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 17, 2019 11:04:29 GMT -5
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Post by iheartdurenbros on Mar 17, 2019 11:19:49 GMT -5
How is St John’s still in discussion?
At MSG last night, I was talking to a couple of Xavier fans. We both agreed that Xavier and Georgetown deserved bids if St John’s got in. To be 100% clear, it’s not that we thought our teams deserved bids.
It’s just that St John’s does not.
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sweetness
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by sweetness on Mar 17, 2019 11:27:43 GMT -5
Don't forget that the Big East refs basically stole a victory from the Johnnies at Seton Hall. That would've been their 6th quad 1 win. I think I read as of yesterday only 26 teams had 5 quad 1 wins - Gtown is one of those, btw. Anyway I think the Johnnies should be one of the last 4 in, particularly when you compare them to other teams on the bubble.
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kettlehill
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by kettlehill on Mar 17, 2019 12:09:38 GMT -5
How is St John’s still in discussion? At MSG last night, I was talking to a couple of Xavier fans. We both agreed that Xavier and Georgetown deserved bids if St John’s got in. To be 100% clear, it’s not that we thought our teams deserved bids. It’s just that St John’s does not. Agree with this and I am all for St J. to succeed: the BE needs it. It just seems to me that they have been living off their 12-0 start all season.I am not into all the metrics/stats/NET, but for those of you that are: does the NET favor early season success too heavily? It should be who are the best teams tournament time, right? Not in December.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Mar 17, 2019 12:26:22 GMT -5
How is St John’s still in discussion? At MSG last night, I was talking to a couple of Xavier fans. We both agreed that Xavier and Georgetown deserved bids if St John’s got in. To be 100% clear, it’s not that we thought our teams deserved bids. It’s just that St John’s does not. Agree with this and I am all for St J. to succeed: the BE needs it. It just seems to me that they have been living off their 12-0 start all season.I am not into all the metrics/stats/NET, but for those of you that are: does the NET favor early season success too heavily? It should be who are the best teams tournament time, right? Not in December. The NET favors blowing out opponents because it has both a margin of victory statistic and an offensive/defensive efficiency statistic. These combined more than offset any negative from a weak schedule, it seems. So you’re fine blowing out terrible teams and losing to any good teams you play (see NC State example above). SJU played the 69th-ranked SOS (per Warren Nolan) was 5-7 against quad 1, has two “bad” losses to NET 102 DePaul, and beat 12 teams with winning regular season records. They have 21 wins. They’re ranked 73rd in NET. Compare that to NCSU, with a 129th-ranked SOS, 2 bad losses to NET 126 Georgia Tech and NET 184 Wake Forest, and 4 wins over teams with winning records. NC State has 22 wins. They have a NET of 33. All of this is to say that the metric is pretty terrible, right now.
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