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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 14, 2019 9:45:04 GMT -5
If you read what the NCAA says about the NET ranking system, it does not bode well for us. The page that describes the ranking system ( www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2018-08-22/net-rankings-what-know-about-college-basketballs-new-tool-help ) indicates that it is designed to factor in all aspects of the selection process, and I worry that it will be used exclusively to determine bids and seeding. We have the worst NET of all the teams on the bubble (including really fringe bubble teams Butler, Toledo, Davidson, Dayton, Providence, Colorado, Hofstra, Xavier, Arizona St, UC Irvine, San Francisco, ...). That said, Providence's NET ranking went up to 69 from 75 with just one win over Butler (granted it was by 23 points). It will be interesting to see how our rating will change if we win tonight (and by how much). It is likely that we will still not be close to where the true bubble teams are like Indiana, Texas, Ohio St, ... Our only hope is that they use the NET like they used to use the RPI, as one of many tools to evaluate teams. From what we've been told by the "experts," the NET will be used precisely as the old RPI was used: as a sorting mechanism. In essence, it was (is?) a way to at least identify teams that should be considered -- sorting the "could be" from the "no ways." Once you got in the 'could be' group, your own RPI was essentially irrelevant. Instead, what really mattered was your OPPONENTS' RPI. That is, your berth and seeding depended in large measure on how you did against teams in certain randomly selected quadrants of the RPI. (They also looked at other metrics -- SOS, road/neutral wins, recent performance (though they took that last one away in recent years).) If the NET really is used that way, we will be fine. That doesn't mean we'll get in, but we'll be considered according to all the things we hope will matter. Said differently, the fact that Clemson's NET rating is so much better than ours won't matter one iota. We'll both be in the "could be" group, and then when they look at how we did against Q1 and the other things, we'll be ranked higher than them. Like you, though, I have my doubts. If nothing else, each committee member is different and all it takes is a couple to more strongly weight pure NET to kill us. Nobody really knows! No one! That's why there's such a huge spread among the most visible bracketologists. USA Today has us in the field -- today -- even before the SH game. Jerry Palm and Lunardi not only don't have us in the field, but neither has us even among their first four out. You see similar spreads with NC State and others. There's always differences among these guys (and those three aren't historically the most accurate), but this year seems particularly zany. All we really know is that we absolutely have to win today at a minimum.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 14, 2019 9:48:09 GMT -5
Georgetown down from 76 to 77 in NET today. Hoyas got jumped by Vermont (went from NET 81 to 73 overnight) who had a home win against NET 325 Binghamton with a score of 84-51. Just shows how much margin of victory/net efficiency affect the NET rankings when a 33 point Q4 home win moved Vermont up 8 spots while Georgetown's 2 point Q1 road win moved the Hoyas up 2 spots. Hopefully Georgetown doesn't regret not blowing out those non-conference opponents or giving up late game garbage points. In today's installment of "I don't understand NET but I'm going to try anyway", Georgetown went down from 77 to 78 today in the NET. The Hoyas switched spots with Missouri which went up from 78 to 77 after a 10 point neutral court win over NET 115 Georgia. So to recap from yesterday, a 33 point win at home over NET 325 moved Vermont up 8 spots in the rankings, while a 10 point win on a neutral court over NET 115 moved Missouri up 1 spot in the rankings. This is a great example since the Missouri win was 10 points, the max for margin of victory. Since the opponent and location were better for the Missouri win, the only explanation is that the net efficiency factor is really influential in the calculation, so running up the score on opponents must be really valuable to the NET rankings. I'm not saying you're wrong at all, but there's lots of potential explanations. Think of all the variables that changed yesterday (so many of Georgetown and Missouri and Vermont's opponents also played...whether those teams won or lost (and against which teams and by how much) played some sort of a role too.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 14, 2019 9:56:51 GMT -5
In today's installment of "I don't understand NET but I'm going to try anyway", Georgetown went down from 77 to 78 today in the NET. The Hoyas switched spots with Missouri which went up from 78 to 77 after a 10 point neutral court win over NET 115 Georgia. So to recap from yesterday, a 33 point win at home over NET 325 moved Vermont up 8 spots in the rankings, while a 10 point win on a neutral court over NET 115 moved Missouri up 1 spot in the rankings. This is a great example since the Missouri win was 10 points, the max for margin of victory. Since the opponent and location were better for the Missouri win, the only explanation is that the net efficiency factor is really influential in the calculation, so running up the score on opponents must be really valuable to the NET rankings. I'm not saying you're wrong at all, but there's lots of potential explanations. Think of all the variables that changed yesterday (so many of Georgetown and Missouri and Vermont's opponents also played...whether those teams won or lost (and against which teams and by how much) played some sort of a role too. I hear you, but there has been little evidence that opponent victories move the needle that much in the NET rankings. I'm sure these are factored in, but it's not like RPI where an opponent's victory will move you up a spot or two. For example, here are the three schools I discussed and their movement in the rankings between Monday and today: Georgetown, no games yet, down 2 in NET, up 2 in RPI Vermont, 33 point home win over NET 325, up 6 in NET, down 1 in RPI Missouri, 10 point neutral win over NET 115, even in NET, up 5 in RPI
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 14, 2019 10:04:48 GMT -5
Just win, baby.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 14, 2019 10:07:36 GMT -5
Early games:
Given how much margin of victory (aka efficiency) is impacting the NET this late in the season, we really need Providence to keep their game close with Nova this afternoon. A 30 point blowout might drop them below 75 and cost us a Q1 win. Will be a tall order on short rest.
Need UVA to destroy NC St. just like NC St. destroyed all those cupcakes in Nov./Dec. Analysis of their resume has already been beaten to death on this thread, but one last data point for the committee to see this team exposed on the court by a surefire NCAA team would be helpful.
An Akron win would be just as disastrous as the St. Mary's win on Monday. Buffalo has to take care of business there. Other than our own game, I think this might be the single most important result we need today.
Not really sure who to root for in the Ohio St. Indiana matchup. Would think a loss ends either of them. Think we are looking for an ugly close result similar to what we got from Clemson NC St. yesterday.
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Post by HometownHoya on Mar 14, 2019 10:53:09 GMT -5
"Just win, in a blowout" is the new NET mantra.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Mar 14, 2019 10:56:09 GMT -5
Just win in a blowout is the new NET mantra. Yep. It seems to reward beating Coppin St. 100-50 at home more than beating Xavier 61-60 on the road. There's a problem with that metric, if so.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Mar 14, 2019 10:56:14 GMT -5
If you read what the NCAA says about the NET ranking system, it does not bode well for us. The page that describes the ranking system ( www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2018-08-22/net-rankings-what-know-about-college-basketballs-new-tool-help ) indicates that it is designed to factor in all aspects of the selection process, and I worry that it will be used exclusively to determine bids and seeding. We have the worst NET of all the teams on the bubble (including really fringe bubble teams Butler, Toledo, Davidson, Dayton, Providence, Colorado, Hofstra, Xavier, Arizona St, UC Irvine, San Francisco, ...). That said, Providence's NET ranking went up to 69 from 75 with just one win over Butler (granted it was by 23 points). It will be interesting to see how our rating will change if we win tonight (and by how much). It is likely that we will still not be close to where the true bubble teams are like Indiana, Texas, Ohio St, ... Our only hope is that they use the NET like they used to use the RPI, as one of many tools to evaluate teams. What makes this so absurd is that the NET was not even announced until long after schedules were set. How can the NCAA impose a new guideline when teams have no time to plan for it? Total nonsense
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 14, 2019 12:03:34 GMT -5
Doesn't the NET have a 10 point gap on margin of victory? So it really doesn't matter if you beat someone by 50. So basically, our best result tonight is a win by 10 or more. But the "more" doesn't really matter for NET, at least.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 14, 2019 12:08:47 GMT -5
Doesn't the NET have a 10 point gap on margin of victory? So it really doesn't matter if you beat someone by 50. So basically, our best result tonight is a win by 10 or more. But the "more" doesn't really matter for NET, at least. Efficiency has no cap and is part of the equation.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 14, 2019 12:24:39 GMT -5
Virginia down 2 at the half. An NC State win and they're definitely in (in my view).
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 14, 2019 12:27:25 GMT -5
Matrix has updated again. Clemson as expected is out and has no more chances left to improve, much like Belmont. Indiana is the new last team in.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 14, 2019 12:34:35 GMT -5
Doesn't the NET have a 10 point gap on margin of victory? So it really doesn't matter if you beat someone by 50. So basically, our best result tonight is a win by 10 or more. But the "more" doesn't really matter for NET, at least. Efficiency has no cap and is part of the equation. This really illustrates the absurdity of NET, and the fact that they tell us some details about it, but it's a secret as to how it works. I realize they like the proprietary nature of owning NET, etc., but it's not good for the game to have it shrouded in secrecy.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 14, 2019 12:35:25 GMT -5
Matrix has updated again. Clemson as expected is out and has no more chances left to improve, much like Belmont. Indiana is the new last team in. Indiana down 7 at the half.
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DudeSlade
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Post by DudeSlade on Mar 14, 2019 13:12:21 GMT -5
Good things happening this morning. Buffalo crushed Akron. Virginia is turning it on in 2nd half against NC State. And Ohio State (probably a better resume anyway) is up 9 on Indiana.
I may be crazy, but I think beating Seton Hall and Marquette -- something we've done in the last 2 weeks -- gets us in to the tourney the way things are shaking out. Maybe not the prettiest OOC, but if they really consider conference and late season play, especially with 3 frosh starting and developing over the season, I like how we are looking right now.
Still can't help but play a little what-if game with so many of those close losses earlier this year. But it seems to have helped them late this season, so there's that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2019 13:13:09 GMT -5
UVA seems to have taken control of their matchup with NC State. Should finish them off, hopefully.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 14, 2019 13:26:15 GMT -5
I also think it's good that PC lost. As much as them winning helps our profile, I think they were definitely a team capable of stealing a bid.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 14, 2019 13:32:45 GMT -5
I also think it's good that PC lost. As much as them winning helps our profile, I think they were definitely a team capable of stealing a bid. Yes, that game was perfect. Close enough that PC shouldn't hopefully lose its top 75 NET, but they are eliminated. The UVA game now is going well too. The second half was not at all competitive and the final margin of victory should hurt NC State's metrics and any subjective eye test.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 14, 2019 13:34:10 GMT -5
Think the early games went as well as we could have expected.
Really could use a late push here by Arkansas vs. Florida.
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Post by charlietao on Mar 14, 2019 13:45:38 GMT -5
If you read what the NCAA says about the NET ranking system, it does not bode well for us. The page that describes the ranking system ( www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2018-08-22/net-rankings-what-know-about-college-basketballs-new-tool-help ) indicates that it is designed to factor in all aspects of the selection process, and I worry that it will be used exclusively to determine bids and seeding. We have the worst NET of all the teams on the bubble (including really fringe bubble teams Butler, Toledo, Davidson, Dayton, Providence, Colorado, Hofstra, Xavier, Arizona St, UC Irvine, San Francisco, ...). That said, Providence's NET ranking went up to 69 from 75 with just one win over Butler (granted it was by 23 points). It will be interesting to see how our rating will change if we win tonight (and by how much). It is likely that we will still not be close to where the true bubble teams are like Indiana, Texas, Ohio St, ... Our only hope is that they use the NET like they used to use the RPI, as one of many tools to evaluate teams. Please correct me if I am wrong. I have been keeping track of NET very frequently (daily to once every two days) this season. We were at 60+ to 70+ early this season, but dropped to 120+ after home loss to SMU. We were never able to dig ourselves out of that hole, at least not fully. The NET is being absurd, especailly considering almost no NET ranking gain after winning Marquette on the road. For the game tonight, we will not be that lucky again if Jessie keeps falling asleep like he did in regulation of our home game vs. Seton Hall.
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