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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 12, 2019 15:35:18 GMT -5
These same conversations are taking place on a dozen or more different team fan forums this week. Only 3 or 4 of them will get in, the rest will fume about how they were screwed, they had a better resume than 3 teams that got in, etc.
We have no complaints if we miss out. As Jay Bilas always says with regard to teams that don't get in (I hate to quote him, but occasionally he is right): "Win more games".
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by guru on Mar 12, 2019 15:37:55 GMT -5
I think that one puts us right on the bubble and with bid stealers may put us out. Two I think would lock us in barring that second game being against DePaul. I still think we'd be in if it was DePaul, but not a lock. If the committee doesn't use NET as much as we think they will, then this team is more than likely tourney bound with 1 win. Palm, granted is known to be overrated, keeps talking about how the NET won't be used to directly rate teams but more so to signify who you beat. If that's the case, then this team is looking very good. Still, in an ideal world, the NET goes up with two good performances in MSG. Hall is a must-win unless the committee doesn't put our NET on our team sheet. This team reminds me a lot of last years Oklahoma State team who missed the tourney despite having many good wins. The bubble is much weaker this year than it was last year and hopefully, that benefits us. But being so similar to that Oklahoma State team scares me as they didn't make it despite me fully believing they should have. I guess my big question is, why do so many of you feel like we are so close to the bubble with an NET so low? As I had indicated yesterday, the lowest RPI ever to make it (as an at large) was 67. Right now, our NET isn't close to that, and I doubt a win over Seton Hall would get it that high, alone. And even if you look at old RPI, we are still far way. I could see getting close to that area with 2 wins in the BET, I am just having trouble seeing it with one win and one loss. No one has any idea how the committee will use the NET rankings, so a lot of this hand-wringing is pointless. What we do know is that they moved away from RPI, so those historic comparisons could well be completely useless at this point. Right now, nobody knows anything. Which makes it a pretty interesting bubble year.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 12, 2019 16:39:31 GMT -5
I think that one puts us right on the bubble and with bid stealers may put us out. Two I think would lock us in barring that second game being against DePaul. I still think we'd be in if it was DePaul, but not a lock. If the committee doesn't use NET as much as we think they will, then this team is more than likely tourney bound with 1 win. Palm, granted is known to be overrated, keeps talking about how the NET won't be used to directly rate teams but more so to signify who you beat. If that's the case, then this team is looking very good. Still, in an ideal world, the NET goes up with two good performances in MSG. Hall is a must-win unless the committee doesn't put our NET on our team sheet. This team reminds me a lot of last years Oklahoma State team who missed the tourney despite having many good wins. The bubble is much weaker this year than it was last year and hopefully, that benefits us. But being so similar to that Oklahoma State team scares me as they didn't make it despite me fully believing they should have. I guess my big question is, why do so many of you feel like we are so close to the bubble with an NET so low? As I had indicated yesterday, the lowest RPI ever to make it (as an at large) was 67. Right now, our NET isn't close to that, and I doubt a win over Seton Hall would get it that high, alone. And even if you look at old RPI, we are still far way. I could see getting close to that area with 2 wins in the BET, I am just having trouble seeing it with one win and one loss. I think it would be a mistake to assume the committee is going to just swap RPI and NET numbers and use them the same way. No one knows how they will use NET or these stupid quads or anything. Its essentially a blank canvas in how they evaluate teams and there isn't a precedence to work against. Bracket selection is a crapshoot every year, but especially this year it seems to be anyones guess plus the 'bubble' teams are all equally pretty poor metric wise or eye test wise. You can't forget that fun subjective tool either, the eye test.
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LCPolo18
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Posts: 4,406
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 12, 2019 17:11:00 GMT -5
I think that one puts us right on the bubble and with bid stealers may put us out. Two I think would lock us in barring that second game being against DePaul. I still think we'd be in if it was DePaul, but not a lock. If the committee doesn't use NET as much as we think they will, then this team is more than likely tourney bound with 1 win. Palm, granted is known to be overrated, keeps talking about how the NET won't be used to directly rate teams but more so to signify who you beat. If that's the case, then this team is looking very good. Still, in an ideal world, the NET goes up with two good performances in MSG. Hall is a must-win unless the committee doesn't put our NET on our team sheet. This team reminds me a lot of last years Oklahoma State team who missed the tourney despite having many good wins. The bubble is much weaker this year than it was last year and hopefully, that benefits us. But being so similar to that Oklahoma State team scares me as they didn't make it despite me fully believing they should have. I guess my big question is, why do so many of you feel like we are so close to the bubble with an NET so low? As I had indicated yesterday, the lowest RPI ever to make it (as an at large) was 67. Right now, our NET isn't close to that, and I doubt a win over Seton Hall would get it that high, alone. And even if you look at old RPI, we are still far way. I could see getting close to that area with 2 wins in the BET, I am just having trouble seeing it with one win and one loss. I think what would be more interesting is what is the team with the lowest kenpom ranking to get an at-large bid? Like you said in another post, RPI is only based on SOS and game results, so it's not really that comparable with NET. NET is definitely keeping Georgetown in the conversation this year. Georgetown's quadrant records are 5-6, 6-4, 1-2, 7-0. That's pretty solid. If the NCAA was still using RPI, Georgetown's quadrant records would be 3-5, 3-3, 6-4, 7-0. Not quite so solid.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 12, 2019 18:18:05 GMT -5
I assume the big difference is that RPI used strength of schedule more strongly? Because NC State has the worst non-conference strength of schedule according to KenPom and by the NCAA metric. If NET benefits blowing out horrible teams, it's a horrible metric. NC State started against 322, 353, 347, 336, and 317. Ridiculous. I realize Georgetown likely would not have gone 9-9 in the ACC, but if we did, basically we'd be a likely tournament team since our metrics would look a lot better. But why do you "realize" that? NC State played 7 games in conference versus teams ranked lower in kenpom than the Hoyas. The Hoyas played 2 (Depaul twice). The reason you "realize" it is the same reason NC State is in a lot of brackets...the conference is branded as brutal because it has three National Championship contenders and everyone ignores the rest.
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Post by FHillsNYHoya on Mar 12, 2019 19:05:57 GMT -5
CAA is a one-bid league right? Hofstra down 16 at HT to Northeastern.
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Post by FHillsNYHoya on Mar 12, 2019 19:19:27 GMT -5
Pride has already cut it to 6 w over 16 min left...
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 12, 2019 19:52:38 GMT -5
CAA is a one-bid league right? Hofstra down 16 at HT to Northeastern. Yep, only one bid. Zags on in 10 minutes. That's tonight's biggie.
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Post by FHillsNYHoya on Mar 12, 2019 20:11:48 GMT -5
CAA is a one-bid league right? Hofstra down 16 at HT to Northeastern. Yep, only one bid. Zags on in 10 minutes. That's tonight's biggie. Still wanted Hofstra as a LI guy...
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 12, 2019 20:31:35 GMT -5
St. mary’s Looking very much up to the challenge in the vesper half. Cmon Zags!
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 12, 2019 21:30:39 GMT -5
Gonzaga officially in trouble. Down 7 with under 8 to go. Would be a devastating blow to the entire bubble.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 12, 2019 21:38:27 GMT -5
Horrible potential outcome. They look awful.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Mar 12, 2019 21:46:14 GMT -5
This would be bad. Just another spot is gone and one that I didn't expect at all. Will now need the Pac-12 or the MAC favorites to win. Wofford took care of business, will need one of these two to go our way at the bare minimum.
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kbones17
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Post by kbones17 on Mar 12, 2019 21:47:01 GMT -5
I think they'll be in the NIT. I'm a firm proponent of the smaller schools getting ample consideration. But I just don't see it with them -- or frankly with the other contenders (Furman, Belmont). Just to take UNC-G as the example (and they may have the best argument among those contenders: They got a decent crack at Q1 teams and went 2-6. That's not horrible at all. But it's not a stat that helps them because this wasn't a situation where they didn't get to play any of those games. It's unfair that many of those were on the road (and it's unfortunate that the major conference teams they scheduled happened to be very, very good) but that's life. They had a crack against a bunch and they didn't win enough to make it noteworthy. So...what else do they have? Not much. 17 of their wins were Q4. I don't hold the 10 or so of those that they played in conference against them...nothing they can do about that. But they certainly could have bumped up just a few of their Q4 games to Q3-type games (or Q2). When you know a bunch of teams in your conference stink, you have to try to schedule the Davidsons or the Charlestons or the Radfords to make up for it. I get that they may not have thought they were going to be as good as they were (and, heck, they probably couldn't have predicted that two other teams in their league were going to be so good, which helped their numbers). But you can't assess any of that in hindsight. So should NCSU get in? They went 2-8 against the top quadrant and 10 of their wins came against Q4. 3-2 against Q3. They've beaten three ( THREE!) total teams with winning records. They have a couple of terrible losses to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Should they be in even if they manage to get that elusive fourth win against a team with a winning record? FYI - their SOS is around 145-150 (anchored by a solid 353rd out of 353 ranked non-conference SOS). UNCG's for reference is 110-115 (anchored by an NCSOS of 138th). The ACC is a lot weaker than people realize simply because they have three great teams. Pitt, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Boston College, Miami, and Wake Forest are all absolutely garbage. I'd argue that NCSU and Clemson are, as well (though Clemson has beaten 5 teams with winning records). Edit to add: You also can't predict whether a team is going to be Q4 or Q3 (or, hell, even Q2) with any real accuracy - like you said, can't assess that in hindsight.
Second Edit: If anyone is curious, we have 12 wins over teams with winning records. That NC State has only 3 wins (out of 21 wins!) against teams with winning records is an amazing stat.
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Post by hoyaatheart55 on Mar 12, 2019 21:50:11 GMT -5
Thanks for nothing Zags!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2019 21:52:20 GMT -5
Way to go Zags.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 12, 2019 21:52:34 GMT -5
3 wins or bust...
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Mar 12, 2019 21:52:36 GMT -5
And the door just closed on us a little bit further
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 12, 2019 21:56:19 GMT -5
Beat Hall and we are still right there in the mix...
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Mar 12, 2019 21:57:46 GMT -5
In the last 20 years, a team named Gonzaga or St. Mary's has won 19 WCC tournament titles. In fact, in the last 13, only three schools have even played in the finals (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU).
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