bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Feb 25, 2019 16:12:36 GMT -5
Beating Seton Hall would go a long way to helping their chances. Of course if you lose either game to DePaul it probably won't matter.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 25, 2019 16:49:01 GMT -5
We have no business being in the first 4 out. You have 3 teams with NET ratings in the 40s and then Georgetown at 73. There is very little reason to believe we can beat Depaul twice and SHU in DC so it doesn't matter. Everyone wants us to be better than we are.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 25, 2019 17:25:04 GMT -5
We have no business being in the first 4 out. You have 3 teams with NET ratings in the 40s and then Georgetown at 73. There is very little reason to believe we can beat Depaul twice and SHU in DC so it doesn't matter. Everyone wants us to be better than we are. Except the committee has shown they don't just take the teams that has the highest NET/RPI ranking as at large bids. If we look at those four teams in terms of Q1, Q2, and road records, Georgetown stacks up well. Look, I agree that Georgetown has work to do in order to get a bid, but at the moment they have the foundation for a decent profile if they can play well over the next few weeks. Clemson NET 43 Q1: 1-8 Q2: 3-3 Road: 2-6 Furman NET 48 Q1: 1-5 Q2: 3-0 Road: 9-4 Butler NET 49 Q1: 2-7 Q2: 5-5 Road: 2-7 Georgetown NET 73 Q1: 3-5 Q2: 4-4 Road: 4-5
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Feb 25, 2019 18:33:29 GMT -5
We are playing for pride and a decent BET seeding. Other than winning the BET outright, we are looking at an NIT bid at most.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 25, 2019 18:37:25 GMT -5
We have no business being in the first 4 out. You have 3 teams with NET ratings in the 40s and then Georgetown at 73. There is very little reason to believe we can beat Depaul twice and SHU in DC so it doesn't matter. Everyone wants us to be better than we are. Except the committee has shown they don't just take the teams that has the highest NET/RPI ranking as at large bids. If we look at those four teams in terms of Q1, Q2, and road records, Georgetown stacks up well. Look, I agree that Georgetown has work to do in order to get a bid, but at the moment they have the foundation for a decent profile if they can play well over the next few weeks. Clemson NET 43 Q1: 1-8 Q2: 3-3 Road: 2-6 Furman NET 48 Q1: 1-5 Q2: 3-0 Road: 9-4 Butler NET 49 Q1: 2-7 Q2: 5-5 Road: 2-7 Georgetown NET 73 Q1: 3-5 Q2: 4-4 Road: 4-5 Everyone ignores losses, and I don't know why. We have two quadrant 3 losses. Butler, Furman, and Clemson have 0. This is one reason their NET's are better. Unless we got our NET way up, which really can only happen through wins at the BET (or winning 4 in a row to close out the season), we aren't making the tournament. 9-9 with our OOC won't cut it, barring some BET wins. I know people say the bubble is worse than ever, but it's always pretty bad, and has been since they expanded the field to 68. Yeah, if we won 4 in a row and went 10-8, we might have a chance, and having two games against DePaul helps out, but the odds are definitely against us doing that. And, yes, I want us to and would be ecstatic, but it would be unrealistic to expect this team to put together 4 wins in a row in conference play when they've never won more than 2 in a row, plus playing Marquette. I hope it happens, but it's a longshot. That said, these odd and unlikely circumstances happen every year, so maybe it'll happen to us this year! We do have a wide set of outcomes. Run out 10-8, and we could make it, 9-9 with a BET win or two, and we probably go to NIT, 9-9 without BET wins, and we probably aren't even in the NIT.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 25, 2019 18:51:28 GMT -5
Except the committee has shown they don't just take the teams that has the highest NET/RPI ranking as at large bids. If we look at those four teams in terms of Q1, Q2, and road records, Georgetown stacks up well. Look, I agree that Georgetown has work to do in order to get a bid, but at the moment they have the foundation for a decent profile if they can play well over the next few weeks. Clemson NET 43 Q1: 1-8 Q2: 3-3 Road: 2-6 Furman NET 48 Q1: 1-5 Q2: 3-0 Road: 9-4 Butler NET 49 Q1: 2-7 Q2: 5-5 Road: 2-7 Georgetown NET 73 Q1: 3-5 Q2: 4-4 Road: 4-5 Everyone ignores losses, and I don't know why. We have two quadrant 3 losses. Butler, Furman, and Clemson have 0. This is one reason their NET's are better. Unless we got our NET way up, which really can only happen through wins at the BET (or winning 4 in a row to close out the season), we aren't making the tournament. 9-9 with our OOC won't cut it, barring some BET wins. I know people say the bubble is worse than ever, but it's always pretty bad, and has been since they expanded the field to 68. Yeah, if we won 4 in a row and went 10-8, we might have a chance, and having two games against DePaul helps out, but the odds are definitely against us doing that. And, yes, I want us to and would be ecstatic, but it would be unrealistic to expect this team to put together 4 wins in a row in conference play when they've never won more than 2 in a row, plus playing Marquette. I hope it happens, but it's a longshot. That said, these odd and unlikely circumstances happen every year, so maybe it'll happen to us this year! We do have a wide set of outcomes. Run out 10-8, and we could make it, 9-9 with a BET win or two, and we probably go to NIT, 9-9 without BET wins, and we probably aren't even in the NIT. Trust me, I'm not ignoring losses, and like I said I don't think Georgetown should be in with their current profile. I just wanted to point out that just blindly looking at the NET ranking doesn't tell the whole story. And while Furman doesn't have a Q3 loss, they do have a Q4 loss!
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kettlehill
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Post by kettlehill on Feb 25, 2019 19:26:05 GMT -5
We are playing for pride and a decent BET seeding. Other than winning the BET outright, we are looking at an NIT bid at most. That is simply not true: if we sweep the rest of our regular season games and win one in the BE tourney, we are in. No doubt. Improbable, for sure. Impossible, nope.
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Feb 25, 2019 20:44:36 GMT -5
I hope you are right. If we overcome our inconsistency, we might do it.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Feb 25, 2019 21:01:55 GMT -5
We have no business being in the first 4 out. You have 3 teams with NET ratings in the 40s and then Georgetown at 73. There is very little reason to believe we can beat Depaul twice and SHU in DC so it doesn't matter. Everyone wants us to be better than we are. Consider the possibility that out best performing assets this season are our media savvy head coach and his media relations team.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 25, 2019 22:30:54 GMT -5
Everyone ignores losses, and I don't know why. We have two quadrant 3 losses. Butler, Furman, and Clemson have 0. This is one reason their NET's are better. Unless we got our NET way up, which really can only happen through wins at the BET (or winning 4 in a row to close out the season), we aren't making the tournament. 9-9 with our OOC won't cut it, barring some BET wins. I know people say the bubble is worse than ever, but it's always pretty bad, and has been since they expanded the field to 68. Yeah, if we won 4 in a row and went 10-8, we might have a chance, and having two games against DePaul helps out, but the odds are definitely against us doing that. And, yes, I want us to and would be ecstatic, but it would be unrealistic to expect this team to put together 4 wins in a row in conference play when they've never won more than 2 in a row, plus playing Marquette. I hope it happens, but it's a longshot. That said, these odd and unlikely circumstances happen every year, so maybe it'll happen to us this year! We do have a wide set of outcomes. Run out 10-8, and we could make it, 9-9 with a BET win or two, and we probably go to NIT, 9-9 without BET wins, and we probably aren't even in the NIT. Trust me, I'm not ignoring losses, and like I said I don't think Georgetown should be in with their current profile. I just wanted to point out that just blindly looking at the NET ranking doesn't tell the whole story. And while Furman doesn't have a Q3 loss, they do have a Q4 loss! I agree using the NET as the only qualifier is not enough. However, the huge disparity tells me there are about 25 other teams between Georgetown and those other first four out that also need to be considered.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 25, 2019 22:35:43 GMT -5
We have no business being in the first 4 out. You have 3 teams with NET ratings in the 40s and then Georgetown at 73. There is very little reason to believe we can beat Depaul twice and SHU in DC so it doesn't matter. Everyone wants us to be better than we are. Consider the possibility that out best performing assets this season are our media savvy head coach and his media relations team. True, we have been getting much more press than we deserve. A benefit of having a Top 50 all-time NBA player and one of the greatest college basketball players of all-time as a head coach. Honestly, I wish it could help us more in recruiting.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 25, 2019 23:13:14 GMT -5
Trust me, I'm not ignoring losses, and like I said I don't think Georgetown should be in with their current profile. I just wanted to point out that just blindly looking at the NET ranking doesn't tell the whole story. And while Furman doesn't have a Q3 loss, they do have a Q4 loss! I agree using the NET as the only qualifier is not enough. However, the huge disparity tells me there are about 25 other teams between Georgetown and those other first four out that also need to be considered. Sure, but a lot of those teams are already included in brackets either as automatic or at-large bids.(Using the original CBS bracket projections and NET rankings of 40-75 for games through 2/23) 40, 41, 42, 44, 45, 47, 50, 52, 54, 55, 58, 62, 63, 69, 71, 75 Others are faltering down the stretch or have losing records: 46 (Nebraska), 57 (Indiana), 59 (Penn St), 68 (Texas A&M) Others are from low or mid majors so they would need more help on their resume: 51 (San Francisco), 56 (Murray St), 61 (UNC Greensboro), 64 (Liberty), 65 (Toledo), 66 (Davidson), 67 (ETSU), 70 (Dayton) That leaves: 53 (Creighton), 60 (Memphis), 72 (South Florida), 73 (Georgetown), 74 (Oregon) Plus the other three they included in the first four out: 43 (Clemson), 48 (Furman), 49 (Butler), Again, I'm not saying Georgetown should be in right now. And even saying they are in the first four out might be a stretch at the moment. But I can see why they are still under consideration.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 25, 2019 23:18:48 GMT -5
For what it's worth, even the official NET team sheets include other rankings, including KPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI. So the tournament committee isn't looking only at NET. That said, those numbers, across the board tend to correlate fairly closely.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 26, 2019 9:07:49 GMT -5
I am glad the NET is not the only thing they are looking at, but you have to think it is pretty important since it is NCAA endorsed. I see Lunardi has us as the 8th team out. I guess I just want to tamper any of my own enthusiasm until this team shows it can win 2 games at home in a row this week.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Feb 26, 2019 9:12:09 GMT -5
NCAA Chances?
Health Club: Slim and Fat
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 26, 2019 9:15:20 GMT -5
We’ve lost 3 of our last 4. There is no realistic NCAA hope right now. Win the next 2 and then we have something to talk about again.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Feb 26, 2019 9:33:26 GMT -5
NCAA Chances? Health Club: Slim and Fat They would probably need to get to the BET final at this point for the NCAA's. Just finish strong and win 2 of the next 4 and they should play in the NIT
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 26, 2019 9:33:56 GMT -5
Fairly big night on the bubble tonight with 3 of the last 4 teams in on the Bracket Matrix all in action. As much as we need to take care of business this week with our 2 games, the teams we're competing with have to dodge their own land mines as well. Your rooting guide:
10 seed: Ohio St. vs. Iowa (a quality win here likely puts them a single step from safety) 3rd to last team in: Temple at Memphis (really need to have Memphis prevent Temple from securing another Q1 win on the road) 2nd to last team in: Alabama at South Carolina (Bama a slight dog in this one on the road) Last team in: Utah St. vs. San Diego St. (a bad loss here would surely knock them out of the bracket for the time being) 2nd team out: Butler vs. Providence (a Providence win, while damaging Butler, would also give us a shot at another Q1 win @prov) 7th team out: Toledo at Ball St. (another bad loss and their at-large chances are likely shot for good) 10th team out: Indiana vs. Wisconsin (a big opportunity for a name win for Indiana who is fading big time) 14th team out: Dayton at Massachusetts (same as Toledo) 16th team out: Liberty vs. Kennesaw St. (Liberty likely has 0 at large shot, but need the ASun to be a 1 bid league and Lipscomb needs to be that team)
We are 11th team out on the Matrix this morning and tomorrow night is a hold-serve game for us, so we will need help elsewhere for any significant movement up.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 26, 2019 10:57:57 GMT -5
Yeah, get to 8-8 with 2 home wins against DePaul and SH and then the final two games become important and worth some mental angst as a fan.
However, I'm not seeing much evidence in our ability to reel off 5 wins in a row (finish 10-8 plus a BET win), which is likely what it would take to be safely in the tournament.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 26, 2019 11:20:04 GMT -5
Yeah, get to 8-8 with 2 home wins against DePaul and SH and then the final two games become important and worth some mental angst as a fan. However, I'm not seeing much evidence in our ability to reel off 5 wins in a row (finish 10-8 plus a BET win), which is likely what it would take to be safely in the tournament. If you think we need 5 in a row and you use projected lines then we have about a 1% chance. If you think we can go 4-1 over the next 5 but 1 of those wins needs to be Marquette then we shoot up to 2%. I think those chances are pretty realistic.
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