daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 20, 2019 21:44:34 GMT -5
Of course they are up 8 now Butler played a much harder non-conference. Their NCSOS is 49 while ours is 241. That's probably the reason for the difference in NET/RPI (Butler: 49/58, GU 81/82). They also have one less Q3 loss than we do. Those games vs. LMU and SMU will continue to be anchors for us. Fair but I don’t get why SOS matters if you lose all your hard games though. Anyone could play a hard schedule and not win.
|
|
|
Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 20, 2019 21:59:24 GMT -5
Butler played a much harder non-conference. Their NCSOS is 49 while ours is 241. That's probably the reason for the difference in NET/RPI (Butler: 49/58, GU 81/82). They also have one less Q3 loss than we do. Those games vs. LMU and SMU will continue to be anchors for us. Fair but I don’t get why SOS matters if you lose all your hard games though. Anyone could play a hard schedule and not win. Not that I want to make the case for Butler, but they also beat an Ole Miss team that has a NET of 35. That's a fairly quality win. To give some context on the difference between their non-con and ours, the NETs of their wins compared to ours: Butler: 33, 35, 100, 138, 146, 150, 202, 217, 259 GU: 54, 78, 83, 189, 210, 215, 230, 288, 306, 353 I also don't feel like calculating the scoring margins for their non-con vs. ours, but they have us beat substantially there as well. Those early games that were closer than they should be are also hurting us.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 20, 2019 22:06:12 GMT -5
Forgot Ole Miss. You’re right. I can’t argue our resume over theirs when I look deeper. Too bad we don’t have the Surechse win and/or one of Marquette or St Johns at home.
|
|
sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
|
Post by sleepy on Feb 20, 2019 22:11:03 GMT -5
Ahh, over the top negativity is back, feels like Hoyatalk again. Bunch of quitters you people are. Win the next two and then we'll see what song you people are singing. Halfway there...
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 20, 2019 22:20:58 GMT -5
The next game is still a must win, you have to beat Creighton. If that happens, then there's a legitimate shot.
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 20, 2019 22:21:17 GMT -5
I know this thread is for the NCAA tournament, but beating Villanova makes an NIT bid a lot more likely, which would still be a lot of progress for this squad.
|
|
|
Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 20, 2019 22:28:44 GMT -5
We've won one game ever at Century Link: the 2015 team that lost a close one to Utah in the 2nd round stomped out Creighton 67-40 that year.
The other 4 games? Losses by an average of 12.7 ppg, with the closest margin being 8. We have our work cut out for us to complete the 2-0 week. As we saw tonight, anything is possible with this team if they play with the effort and focus that they're capable of. As we saw last week, it can also go south in a hurry. It's just like Pat said tonight in his post game presser, it can't just be a one game thing. They need to build on this.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 20, 2019 22:50:57 GMT -5
If Liberty can somehow get into the Top 50 (currently 54), that would only help the cause.
|
|
LCPolo18
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,406
|
Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 20, 2019 23:35:12 GMT -5
|
|
SDHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,361
|
Post by SDHoya on Feb 20, 2019 23:40:19 GMT -5
Easy—win out and then go 3-0 at the Garden and I guarantee we get selected 😁
|
|
blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,809
|
Post by blueandgray on Feb 20, 2019 23:45:13 GMT -5
4 0f next 5 should put us in a very good spot.
|
|
|
Post by trillesthoya on Feb 21, 2019 0:36:49 GMT -5
I thought about this scenario too. I think 9-9 needs a BET finale appearance even if you beat Marquette. One win and you're in the first four out probably.
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 21, 2019 0:39:11 GMT -5
Yes, 9-9 without a BET finale is likely NIT, especially if we get to 9-9 with two wins over DePaul and Seton Hall.
|
|
smokeyjack
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,301
|
Post by smokeyjack on Feb 21, 2019 8:13:41 GMT -5
I think they need to get to 10-8, given the weak non-con sked. That means finishing 4-1 obviously. Beat Creighton, and that will be the expectation (SHU at home and DePaul 2x, L at Marquette).
That is very well within this team's reach re to talent and ceiling, but you wouldn't bet on it given this group's complete lack of consistency. I'm guessing 9-9, which means they'd have to reach the BET finals. That's a much harder road.
|
|
|
Post by bigelephant on Feb 21, 2019 8:30:20 GMT -5
Let's just see what happens - do not need to stress over which games we win or lose. That said, we look to a 10-8 record prior to the BET, if we are lucky. If we are luckier then we close with 5-0 and a 11-7 record. But we could blow it all too, if we are unlucky - so why stress over it. Take as it comes - one game at a time.
|
|
bostonfan
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,531
|
Post by bostonfan on Feb 21, 2019 8:36:51 GMT -5
Yes, 9-9 without a BET finale is likely NIT, especially if we get to 9-9 with two wins over DePaul and Seton Hall. I don't see the Hoyas wining all 5 of the games left. They are just too young and have not shown the consistency required to go on a run like that. What they need to do is win the games they "should" win (Creighton and two with DePaul) and then hope for a split with Marquette and Seton Hall. If they do that, and if that split included beating Marquette, I think they might sneak in with just one more win in the Big East tourney. That sounds doable but even those "should" win games will be tough, Creighton is a tough team to play against if they are making threes and DePaul is not the old DePaul, they will play hard and the Hoyas will need to play like they did last night to sweep them. To even be having this conversation this late in the season is an accomplishment, but hopefully the team is not satisfied with just being in the conversation. Close the season with 5 more complete 40 minutes efforts and the worst they will end up with is a NIT bid.
|
|
kettlehill
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,157
|
Post by kettlehill on Feb 21, 2019 8:45:00 GMT -5
Question for you stat folks: is the NET adjusted daily or is it a weekly deal? Reason I ask is that it looks as if our ranking did not move after Villanova win.
|
|
GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
|
Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 21, 2019 8:47:08 GMT -5
Question for you stat folks: is the NET adjusted daily or is it a weekly deal? Reason I ask is that it looks as if our ranking did not move after Villanova win. I think every other day roughly. So we should see the update later today.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 21, 2019 8:51:21 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 21, 2019 8:54:19 GMT -5
Question for you stat folks: is the NET adjusted daily or is it a weekly deal? Reason I ask is that it looks as if our ranking did not move after Villanova win. Usually every day, but not first thing in the morning. Usually at around midday it's been updated. By the way, I think people are overestimating the strength of the bubble. It's really, really bad this year. If we get to 10-10 in the league (9-9 and then 1-1 in the BET), I think we're right there. Maybe wouldn't make it, but a pretty darned good chance. Even without a Marquette win. There's also a certain amount of unknown this year. How much will the straight NET rating count versus other metrics? Will teams with lots of tier 1 wins (we'd be pretty high in that metric versus other bubble contenders) have an advantage or will other mini-metrics be more important? I don't think anyone has any idea how all that plays out.
|
|