Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2018 21:40:57 GMT -5
www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.htmlWhat is Box Plus/Minus? Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is a box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team. It is the latest version of a stat previously called Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus; it is NOT a version of Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric. BPM relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average. BPM is a per-100-possession stat, the same scale as Adjusted Plus/Minus: 0.0 is league average, +5 means the player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions (which is about All-NBA level), -2 is replacement level, and -5 is really bad. Starting lineup BPM through 10 games: Govan +6.9 Pickett +1.8 Mourning -0.9 Akinjo -1.8 McClung -4.5 On edit ... out of curiosity and to continue flogging a horse from another thread ... Nate Lubick’s career BPM at Georgetown was 5.6 (all NBA level ... or the equivalent!). So, you know, math is hard ...
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 20, 2018 16:57:06 GMT -5
Box plus minus is trash on the defensive side because of this statement:
"BPM relies on a player's box score information."
Plus/Minus can be problematic because of sample size, covariance due to lineup formulations (If you play with a bad player, then you likely look bad) and the fact that backups often face backups.
But Box Plus/Minus in a disaster on defense because it allocates team performance on defense solely by defensive rebounds, steals and blocks. There's almost no correlation between individual performance in those metrics with actual team defensive performance. Imagine a sequence where Akinjo dogs his man into a bad shot, LeBlanc comes over and contests the shot but doesn't alter it ... and Malinowski grabs the uncontested D rebound.
All will get some credit for the miss, but Malinowksi will get by FAR the most credit.
People created it because a real adjusted +/- requires PBP data, and that's a lot of work. But BPM is basically useless for defense. For example, BPM will tell you Russell Westbrook is more or less the best defensive guard of all time due to his high amount of defensive rebounds and the strong defensive team around him.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 20, 2018 17:53:23 GMT -5
Box plus minus is trash on the defensive side because of this statement: "BPM relies on a player's box score information." Plus/Minus can be problematic because of sample size, covariance due to lineup formulations (If you play with a bad player, then you likely look bad) and the fact that backups often face backups. But Box Plus/Minus in a disaster on defense because it allocates team performance on defense solely by defensive rebounds, steals and blocks. There's almost no correlation between individual performance in those metrics with actual team defensive performance. Imagine a sequence where Akinjo dogs his man into a bad shot, LeBlanc comes over and contests the shot but doesn't alter it ... and Malinowski grabs the uncontested D rebound. All will get some credit for the miss, but Malinowksi will get by FAR the most credit. People created it because a real adjusted +/- requires PBP data, and that's a lot of work. But BPM is basically useless for defense. For example, BPM will tell you Russell Westbrook is more or less the best defensive guard of all time due to his high amount of defensive rebounds and the strong defensive team around him. Is it really that bad though SF? It clearly shows that LeBlanc is far & away the best defender on the team with a 5.7 rating, it also shows that the rest of the team is pretty blah except for Pickett who rates a 3.7... Folks, including PE have been saying all year that Pickett has made a jump defensively, the DBPM #'s bare that out, he's jumped from a 0.6 last season to a 3.7 so far this year... It has to be more than rebounding since he's getting less than one more per game than last season(3.7 to 4.4) I get that the metric isn't perfect but seems to me it gives a decent enough snapshot
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 21, 2018 1:46:27 GMT -5
Box plus minus is trash on the defensive side because of this statement: "BPM relies on a player's box score information." Plus/Minus can be problematic because of sample size, covariance due to lineup formulations (If you play with a bad player, then you likely look bad) and the fact that backups often face backups. But Box Plus/Minus in a disaster on defense because it allocates team performance on defense solely by defensive rebounds, steals and blocks. There's almost no correlation between individual performance in those metrics with actual team defensive performance. Imagine a sequence where Akinjo dogs his man into a bad shot, LeBlanc comes over and contests the shot but doesn't alter it ... and Malinowski grabs the uncontested D rebound. All will get some credit for the miss, but Malinowksi will get by FAR the most credit. People created it because a real adjusted +/- requires PBP data, and that's a lot of work. But BPM is basically useless for defense. For example, BPM will tell you Russell Westbrook is more or less the best defensive guard of all time due to his high amount of defensive rebounds and the strong defensive team around him. Is it really that bad though SF? It clearly shows that LeBlanc is far & away the best defender on the team with a 5.7 rating, it also shows that the rest of the team is pretty blah except for Pickett who rates a 3.7... Folks, including PE have been saying all year that Pickett has made a jump defensively, the DBPM #'s bare that out, he's jumped from a 0.6 last season to a 3.7 so far this year... It has to be more than rebounding since he's getting less than one more per game than last season(3.7 to 4.4) I get that the metric isn't perfect but seems to me it gives a decent enough snapshot It's really not better than an eye test, if you're reasonably educated. LeBlanc rates highly because he's our best defender AND he gets box score stats ... but it also makes Govan a pretty decent defender because he grabs D rebounds and gets a block or two. And if the stat is only useful to validate that LeBlanc is awesome, what use is it? I need stats to tell me things I don't know. Is Malinowski's good rating on defense due to him being a good defender or is it mostly due to his high defensive rebounding rate? Guards in general get shafted by BPM, which rates people like Klay Thompson as a bad defender. They consequently overrate people who gamble on defense (stls, blocks) and people who snatch D rebounds, even though it's been proven over and over that the vast majority of D rebounds are uncontested and discretionary (i.e., when there's no offense, the team chooses who grabs it for stat padding or fast break reasons). Stats are fantastic because they take the full volume of information and don't allow for the basic human bias of accounting for the hits and ignoring the misses that plagues people's defensive viewpoints. We can't even process the full amount of possessions in a game without letting our preconceived notions get in the way; we definitely can't do every play of every game. But with defense, you are better off looking at full lineups or using PBP or play type data or at best, tracking data. But if you don't have the best ones, stick with something that doesn't allocate on useless data. Honestly, things like individual D rebounding correlate so poorly that it'd be like giving offensive credit based on minutes, or turnovers or something.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 21, 2018 10:39:19 GMT -5
Is it really that bad though SF? It clearly shows that LeBlanc is far & away the best defender on the team with a 5.7 rating, it also shows that the rest of the team is pretty blah except for Pickett who rates a 3.7... Folks, including PE have been saying all year that Pickett has made a jump defensively, the DBPM #'s bare that out, he's jumped from a 0.6 last season to a 3.7 so far this year... It has to be more than rebounding since he's getting less than one more per game than last season(3.7 to 4.4) I get that the metric isn't perfect but seems to me it gives a decent enough snapshot It's really not better than an eye test, if you're reasonably educated. LeBlanc rates highly because he's our best defender AND he gets box score stat s ... but it also makes Govan a pretty decent defender because he grabs D rebounds and gets a block or two. And if the stat is only useful to validate that LeBlanc is awesome, what use is it? I need stats to tell me things I don't know. Is Malinowski's good rating on defense due to him being a good defender or is it mostly due to his high defensive rebounding rate? Guards in general get shafted by BPM, which rates people like Klay Thompson as a bad defender. They consequently overrate people who gamble on defense (stls, blocks) and people who snatch D rebounds, even though it's been proven over and over that the vast majority of D rebounds are uncontested and discretionary (i.e., when there's no offense, the team chooses who grabs it for stat padding or fast break reasons). Stats are fantastic because they take the full volume of information and don't allow for the basic human bias of accounting for the hits and ignoring the misses that plagues people's defensive viewpoints. We can't even process the full amount of possessions in a game without letting our preconceived notions get in the way; we definitely can't do every play of every game. But with defense, you are better off looking at full lineups or using PBP or play type data or at best, tracking data. But if you don't have the best ones, stick with something that doesn't allocate on useless data. Honestly, things like individual D rebounding correlate so poorly that it'd be like giving offensive credit based on minutes, or turnovers or something. For a big man, aren't Govan's DBPM numbers terrible? He has a 1.7 rating... The same question for Malinowski who has a 1.2 DBPM, I don't see how either could be described as decent or good... I do understand that it's a flawed metric and really does favor bigs over guards & forwards however if you look at it in that context it adds some value in my view... You're right though, it's never gonna show how truly good a player like Jevon Carter is at defending...
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lichoya68
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OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Dec 21, 2018 20:45:32 GMT -5
MONSTER JOSH NUF SAID YUP
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Dec 21, 2018 20:55:48 GMT -5
I hope there's plenty of Josh v. Jamorko in practice.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Dec 29, 2018 14:50:15 GMT -5
Bump!
This freshman just went 7 for 7 from the field and went for 22 and 11.....ho-hum. Just another day at the office for Josh.
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MCIGuy
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Anyone here? What am I supposed to update?
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Post by MCIGuy on Dec 29, 2018 15:09:08 GMT -5
If he can keep hitting that midrange jumper in the paint around the free throw line then that's a problem. For other teams.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Dec 29, 2018 17:02:39 GMT -5
You could try, if you really wanted to, to not like this guy. You'd fail miserably. But you could try.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2018 17:04:55 GMT -5
Not just 22/11... but in only 26 minutes.
With 1 TO & 1 foul.
Crazy.
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jester
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Post by jester on Dec 29, 2018 21:00:11 GMT -5
Only 3 other Frosh have 15 steals and 15 blocks: Zion, Bassey, and Lamine Diane. Add in his assist numbers its just Zion and Diane.
Of all the players (Frosh-Sr) in the country, only 1 other with such stats in under 300 min played: Obediah Church.
Impressed with his play/attitude/energy/growth so far.
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Dec 29, 2018 21:16:15 GMT -5
FROSH DOUBLE-DOUBLES SINCE 2000
Michael Sweetney 6 (00-01) Jeff Green 5 (04-05) Greg Monroe 4 (08-09) Otto Porter 3 (11-12) Josh LeBlanc 3 (18-19) * active Roy Hibbert 2 (04-05) Marcus Derrickson 2 (15-16) DaJuan Summers 1 (06-07)
Again, for Josh, it's only for 13 games. Everyone else played a full season. AND - Josh has only started two games.
We are SOOOOO lucky to have him on our Hoya team.
Love this kid!
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Dec 29, 2018 21:51:16 GMT -5
Sweetney was a beast! Such great hands, soft touch and power.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Dec 29, 2018 21:56:55 GMT -5
FROSH DOUBLE-DOUBLES SINCE 2000
Michael Sweetney 6 (00-01) Jeff Green 5 (04-05) Greg Monroe 4 (08-09) Otto Porter 3 (11-12) Josh LeBlanc 3 (18-19) * active Roy Hibbert 2 (04-05) Marcus Derrickson 2 (15-16) DaJuan Summers 1 (06-07)
Again, for Josh, it's only for 13 games. Everyone else played a full season. AND - Josh has only started two games.
We are SOOOOO lucky to have him on our Hoya team.
Love this kid! Ironically, even out of that group, LeBlanc's numbers are sort of ancillary (though less so with the rebounds). They're just a product of his effort which is what we're most looking for from him. When we get it, good things happen. Sometimes they show up in his stat line. Usually, they show up in others' or don't show up at all. The guy has a winning attitude and a motor to match. Far more often than not, you either have those things or you don't. That dude has them to spare.
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FrazierFanatic
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Dec 29, 2018 22:02:59 GMT -5
You could try, if you really wanted to, to not like this guy. You'd fail miserably. But you could try. Many fans will learn not to like him. Fans of Villanova, Xavier, Butler . . .
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Dec 29, 2018 22:10:13 GMT -5
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Post by centercourt400s on Dec 29, 2018 22:10:46 GMT -5
FROSH DOUBLE-DOUBLES SINCE 2000
Michael Sweetney 6 (00-01) Jeff Green 5 (04-05) Greg Monroe 4 (08-09) Otto Porter 3 (11-12) Josh LeBlanc 3 (18-19) * active Roy Hibbert 2 (04-05) Marcus Derrickson 2 (15-16) DaJuan Summers 1 (06-07)
Again, for Josh, it's only for 13 games. Everyone else played a full season. AND - Josh has only started two games.
We are SOOOOO lucky to have him on our Hoya team.
Love this kid! Every player on that list has played in the NBA, except of course for the current freshman. You're in great company Josh!
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Dec 29, 2018 22:22:52 GMT -5
Really liked the foul line jumper today. Great weapon.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 29, 2018 23:43:11 GMT -5
Josh is a fantastic player who keeps getting better. It’s a joy to watch him. I really hope he continues to start but he will likely get a ton of minutes regardless.
And he’s less than two months into his playing career and he’s already my favorite player.
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