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Post by aleutianhoya on Apr 25, 2016 5:03:31 GMT -5
For the entire season of 2015-2016 Mourning shot 52% from the field overall and almost 65% from 2-point range. In conference play those numbers respectively were 53% and 63%. He shot so well from the 2-point range not because of dunks, fastbreaks or backdoor layups. He shot that well from 2-point range because of arguably the most automatic midrange jumpshot on the team last season. He did this despite only averaging 6 minutes a game (in the game he actually got in that is) and thus never having the minutes to get more acclimated to the high level of play. The coaches have already been quoted claiming they think he has tremendous upside. So what is it exactly about him that makes the vast majority of you guys think he is or should be at the way end of the bench? Perception? Something he actually did wrong when playing compared to his other teammates? At least for me, MCI, it's on the other end of the ball (D without fouling and strength), combined with a huge log jam at the two slots he can most easily play. If he gets more than 5 or so MPG at the five, I think that means either Jesse (whom I view as better there overall than Trey) or Brad (who has to get significant minutes there (right?) or else he wouldn't have come back), isn't getting enough. And at the four, who does he take minutes from? You've got Marcus, Agau, and probably minutes at thst slot for Ike and Paul if we go small a lot as seems likely. And that doesn't even account for Reggie, who was ahead of Trey on the chart at that slot last year, though Trey may well have much more upside. With those numbers, a lot has to go right (Trey is really good!) or wrong (somethijg happens at the five slot; Agau and Paul arent all thst good or diminished by injury; we are forced to play two guard sets for some reason; Ike regresses further somehow or doesnt improve) for a lot of PT to be available. If Brad hadn't come back, I think it looks very different. But it just seems to me that it is going to be hard to break in. It's not a shot at him as much as it is a numbers game.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Apr 25, 2016 5:47:55 GMT -5
What's now interesting about this team is to see if it will be a more traditional look on offense. I could very well see a situation where Pryor, Peak, White, and Copeland, all rotate at the 2/3 slots and Agau/Mourning, Derrickson, Govan, and Hayes rotate at the 4/5 (Derrickson the stretch 4 for a different look).
Of course Aleutian is right, it's all about who can play defense how the minutes get distributed. So really the offense might not have anything to do with who plays. We'll run whatever offense keeps the best defenders on the floor.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Apr 25, 2016 7:08:07 GMT -5
Good analysis. The only scenario I see LJ playing less than 30 mpg is if he repeatedly gets into foul trouble again this year. He seemed to improve in that area the latter part of the season....I am hoping this doesn't become an issue. If I were to be picky, I think Ike gets far more than 18 minutes a game. Also, I see Pryor getting quite a bit of run at the 2 slot....probably more there than he gets at the 1. The reverse would hold true for Mullmore...he's get most of his minutes at the 1. I stand corrected. As you and others note, I switched up the positions of the new guards, but I think the minutes are still roughly the same, which I base simply on the fact that Mosely is going to be a freshman, that Mullmore is probably the most unknown based on competition level (arguably even more than Mosely) and Prior is likely to be guaranteed significant minutes or else he wouldn't have come). As for Ike? I'm just naturally skeptical based on last year. If he plays like he did last year, his minutes are going to go down significantly. Why? Because we (at least on paper) have so many more options. Two more (net) guards that project to play meaningfully, which ought to allow LJ to play the three. And a hopefully healthy Paul and Akoy. Had all of those options been there this past year, some combination of those guys would have taken a chunk of Ike's minutes. Unfortunately, we just didn't have a ton of options during some of the games he wasn't playing well. What seems reasonable to project is that he's consistently what he was when he was good as a freshman. That's certainly better than this past year. Based on that, and even given the increased competition for minutes, I think the roughly 20 MPG I had for him seems about right. If he takes a bigger step up? Like, say, what we thought he was likely to be this past year? Well, then obviously he gets more minutes. And, just as obviously, we're suddenly very much a top tier team. That would affect others' minutes, but that would be an OK problem to have! (And before others say "don't you think we're a top-tier team now?" I say in response: No. We have a lot of ways that we could become one (one or two of the new guards is VERY good; one of our fives takes a significant step up or the two combine to take a significant step; LJ becomes an all-american; and/or one of our options at the four slot is very good). We wouldn't need all of that to happen. But some of it would need to happen. It's not that much different than last year (except I think we have more routes this coming year to becoming very good). And, well, Edited happens. I think we're also all (not totally unreasonably) counting on LJ being at least as good as he was at the end of last year. Again, that's not unreasonable. But plenty of guys take somewhat of a step back when they're the unquestioned leader and the focus of opposing teams (the latter of which may nor may not happen depending on who else performs well on the court). Most important, things change if LJ's 3P% falls off -- that has happened to guys around the country ALL THE TIME. At the end of the day, we're still a team that didn't get an NCAA bid and which is losing its top scorer and assist man.)
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Apr 25, 2016 9:08:55 GMT -5
Mourning shot well, but he also had major weaknesses. For one he committed fouls at a rate of 9.9 per 40 minutes (worst aside from Riyan Williams). In addition to the problems it causes, that alone would limit Mourning to 20 minutes or less per game. He also turned it over a lot (on 27.8% of possessions - only Riyan Williams was worse), which drove his efficiency down to 93.8. So, like almost everyone on the team he's got a lot to work on before he will be able to log a lot of minutes. Also, Mourning's shooting was good but a very small sample size. He was 11-17 on twos and 1-6 on threes. Again, that's not to say Mourning won't deserve time but he's got a lot of work to do. What you call his weakness was actually the freedom of his role.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Apr 25, 2016 10:02:36 GMT -5
One of the key benefits of depth - makes it easier to pound home the message: if you want minutes you had better work hard every day between today and next April - because there are plenty of other options if you don't.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 11:02:04 GMT -5
What's now interesting about this team is to see if it will be a more traditional look on offense. I could very well see a situation where Pryor, Peak, White, and Copeland, all rotate at the 2/3 slots and Agau/Mourning, Derrickson, Govan, and Hayes rotate at the 4/5 (Derrickson the stretch 4 for a different look). Of course Aleutian is right, it's all about who can play defense how the minutes get distributed. So really the offense might not have anything to do with who plays. We'll run whatever offense keeps the best defenders on the floor. I mean if you want to play faster that's not a good idea imo... Advantages of playing someone like Paul or to a lesser extent Ike is they can get a rebound and initiate a break.. Paul in particular doesn't have to look for a Guard to get the ball 2 he can lead a break himself.. Plus defensively you have a lot of big players trying to guard small which has worked at times with different personnel but didn't work last year at all... Ike Paul Marcus Need to be at the 3-4 spots imo don't want them playing any 2 at all.. Id rather see them experiment with a small lineup of Pryor at the 3, and 2 of Akoy Paul or Ike at the 4-5 at times than the above.
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by TBird41 on Apr 25, 2016 12:01:25 GMT -5
What's now interesting about this team is to see if it will be a more traditional look on offense. I could very well see a situation where Pryor, Peak, White, and Copeland, all rotate at the 2/3 slots and Agau/Mourning, Derrickson, Govan, and Hayes rotate at the 4/5 (Derrickson the stretch 4 for a different look). Of course Aleutian is right, it's all about who can play defense how the minutes get distributed. So really the offense might not have anything to do with who plays. We'll run whatever offense keeps the best defenders on the floor. I mean if you want to play faster that's not a good idea imo... Advantages of playing someone like Paul or to a lesser extent Ike is they can get a rebound and initiate a break.. Paul in particular doesn't have to look for a Guard to get the ball 2 he can lead a break himself.. Plus defensively you have a lot of big players trying to guard small which has worked at times with different personnel but didn't work last year at all... Ike Paul Marcus Need to be at the 3-4 spots imo don't want them playing any 2 at all.. Id rather see them experiment with a small lineup of Pryor at the 3, and 2 of Akoy Paul or Ike at the 4-5 at times than the above. I'd love to see the Hoyas run out a version of the Warriors small ball death lineup with Derrickson as the 5. Marcus obviously needs to improve his handle and passing to play the Draymond Green role, but he's got the shooting and seems to have the strength to handle most college centers (especially the ones that aren't particularly dangerous post players).
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Apr 26, 2016 18:13:59 GMT -5
Caleb should agree to redshirt so that he will have two years to play with Keldon after Keldon arrives.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Apr 26, 2016 22:59:04 GMT -5
This is going to be an interesting off-season thread considering the depth that's been added and with BJ getting another year of eligibility. There have been years in the not so distant past that this would get a handful of posts and abandoned. But we've got depth. I'm still a bit gun shy after last year with the depth we had until injuries derailed a good amount of that. But we're, on paper, even deeper than last year before the health issues. We lost our leading scorer but we could be, depending on how well PW and Akoy heal, adding more than we lost especially with BJ coming back. Figuring out Bradley's role worries me a bit as upperclassmen seem to get preference a lot of the time. I'm hoping that it's a meritocracy especially considering that it's in the best interest of all involved to start with a clean slate. Earn the minutes. Use the depth to engender competitiveness in practice and allot the minutes accordingly. If it's Bradley starting because he's the best option, I'm fine with that. If it's PW starting over Isaac, I'm good. If it's Trey making a big jump and eating multiple dudes' minutes, great. There are enough guys and enough question marks that most guys shouldn't feel secure in their role or with their number of minutes. Bring it or sit. It may be fun or it may be another trainwreck but I'm hoping for the former and am leaning heavily that way.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Apr 26, 2016 23:07:38 GMT -5
TAS, one question and I have it for all fan bases. Are we over rating our own? I think Bradley is what he is but not special and Govan is the guy with upside which is why I think that will get confusing. Trey is not good. Isaac not so good. LJ is the real talent in the group and I think will step up without DSR. I think DSR there caused problems with the sophomores this past year progressing. I know we have brought in some nice talent on paper but have also seen this hype then when the season starts we ask where are these guys or we say WTF when they play?
My question is how talented are we with a non Hoyatalk focus against the conference and the country and I ask because we were really bad this past season.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Apr 27, 2016 7:09:41 GMT -5
TAS, one question and I have it for all fan bases. Are we over rating our own? I think Bradley is what he is but not special and Govan is the guy with upside which is why I think that will get confusing. Trey is not good. Isaac not so good. LJ is the real talent in the group and I think will step up without DSR. I think DSR there caused problems with the sophomores this past year progressing. I know we have brought in some nice talent on paper but have also seen this hype then when the season starts we ask where are these guys or we say WTF when they play? My question is how talented are we with a non Hoyatalk focus against the conference and the country and I ask because we were really bad this past season. That's always a risk. No question. Part of the challenge of analyzing college sports (unlike, in most instances, the pros), is that you're constantly trying to project improvement from your returning guys and initial impact from your new guys. That's really hard to do because there's so many unknowns. Last year, we were banking on our then-rising-sophomores to either improve or, at a minimum, be the same player. Well, one got hurt and gave us nothing, two were actually worse than their freshmen years, and LJ (as you note) was significantly improved. Had Tre and Ike simply performed at 14-15 levels, we almost surely make the NCAAs. What I think we have this year, eagle, is a lot of different ways we could be quite good. We have the potential talent and skill to be a very good team. Will LJ get even better? Was last year Brad's ceiling, or will he improve even more? What about our rising sophomores? Lots of talent and skill there, but both key guys need to improve more. Will Agau and Paul make an impact? Can Ike get at least back to where he was his freshman year? And, obviously, we're bringing in three new players, two of whom already have collegiate experience. Can they be at least positively impactful? We're going to have to see a few of those things happen. None alone is crazy. Hitting on all (or even most) seems unrealistic, but we don't have to. If none happens? Well, then we ain't gonna be very good!
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Apr 27, 2016 7:12:59 GMT -5
Bored? lol
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by drquigley on Apr 27, 2016 9:03:27 GMT -5
Seems to be a lot of love on the board for Pryor. If I recall he wasn't that impressive when we beat Robert Morris two years ago. What a, I missing?
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Apr 27, 2016 9:14:11 GMT -5
Seems to be a lot of love on the board for Pryor. If I recall he wasn't that impressive when we beat Robert Morris two years ago. What a, I missing? 16 pts on 4 of 7 (3 of 6) FGs with 5 rbs, 2 assists and 4 fouls in 17 mins? Highest scorer for RM that night in his first season there?
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swhoya
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Post by swhoya on Apr 27, 2016 9:31:52 GMT -5
Seems to be a lot of love on the board for Pryor. If I recall he wasn't that impressive when we beat Robert Morris two years ago. What a, I missing? The letter "m"?
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Cambridge
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Canes Pugnaces
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Post by Cambridge on Apr 27, 2016 10:03:00 GMT -5
This is going to be an interesting off-season thread considering the depth that's been added and with BJ getting another year of eligibility. There have been years in the not so distant past that this would get a handful of posts and abandoned. But we've got depth. I'm still a bit gun shy after last year with the depth we had until injuries derailed a good amount of that. But we're, on paper, even deeper than last year before the health issues. We lost our leading scorer but we could be, depending on how well PW and Akoy heal, adding more than we lost especially with BJ coming back. Figuring out Bradley's role worries me a bit as upperclassmen seem to get preference a lot of the time. I'm hoping that it's a meritocracy especially considering that it's in the best interest of all involved to start with a clean slate. Earn the minutes. Use the depth to engender competitiveness in practice and allot the minutes accordingly. If it's Bradley starting because he's the best option, I'm fine with that. If it's PW starting over Isaac, I'm good. If it's Trey making a big jump and eating multiple dudes' minutes, great. There are enough guys and enough question marks that most guys shouldn't feel secure in their role or with their number of minutes. Bring it or sit. It may be fun or it may be another trainwreck but I'm hoping for the former and am leaning heavily that way. The one thing that Bradley has proven time and again is that he places the good of the team above all else. I have no doubts that he is going to play whatever role he is asked to and play it well.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Apr 27, 2016 10:03:30 GMT -5
Seems to be a lot of love on the board for Pryor. If I recall he wasn't that impressive when we beat Robert Morris two years ago. What a, I missing? 16 pts on 4 of 7 (3 of 6) FGs with 5 rbs, 2 assists and 4 fouls in 17 mins? Highest scorer for RM that night in his first season there? 4 fouls in 17 minutes. Looks like he'd fit right in.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2016 11:15:41 GMT -5
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Apr 27, 2016 12:22:54 GMT -5
TAS, one question and I have it for all fan bases. Are we over rating our own? I think Bradley is what he is but not special and Govan is the guy with upside which is why I think that will get confusing. Trey is not good. Isaac not so good. LJ is the real talent in the group and I think will step up without DSR. I think DSR there caused problems with the sophomores this past year progressing. I know we have brought in some nice talent on paper but have also seen this hype then when the season starts we ask where are these guys or we say WTF when they play? My question is how talented are we with a non Hoyatalk focus against the conference and the country and I ask because we were really bad this past season. Agree with much of your analysis, but I think the proverbial jury is still out on Ike. He showed some great promise as a freshman; I really think he had a difficult time last year as a bigger focus of the offense, combined with a (possibly subconscious) deference to DSR. I have real hope that he will make a strong leap in performance next year. But you are right, I may be relying too much on my HoyaVision.
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Post by professorhoya on Apr 27, 2016 13:24:28 GMT -5
Seems to be a lot of love on the board for Pryor. If I recall he wasn't that impressive when we beat Robert Morris two years ago. What a, I missing?
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