JT III

[tjm62]

Mar 19, 2011 20:02:28 GMT -5 Hoyaholic said:

OK my turn.

I don't typically post often because usually my thoughts on any particular issue / game have already been well communicated by other, more knowledgeable, posters on the board, but I haven't seen any discussion of what I think was the primary problem this season.

*** Spoiler alert, it's not the coaching.

Our offensive "system", like many others, is predicated on creating quality looks for high-value shots; namely open threes and lay-ups. It was highly successful at doing so. However, in the second half of our season players simply failed to make those shots.

Somehow, during the course of the season, one by one, our players seemed, for lack of a better term, to lose their MoJo (or confidence...or skill...call it what you want).

1. It started with Jason. Early into the BE season we all took note as he seemed to suffer a crisis of confidence. The JC we saw in conference play was frankly a shell of the assassin that iced the Missouri game with three straight dagger 3's in OT. To draw a golfing parallel, he appeared to my eyes to have caught a case of the yips. Although he continued to play solid D and salted away several games for us from the line (a fact that should not be minimized), his outside threat was eliminated, and the team lost one of its "Big Three."

2. Freeman. Oh good lord what happened to Freeman? Perhaps it was the ankle injury, but that doesn't seem to explain the absolute train wreck that was his last 8 games. I posted after the Syracuse game (senior day) that the most disconcerting aspect of the game was that Austin couldn't throw it in the ocean. He had six 3pt attempts in the first half; five misses - not one even caught inside-rim - and one make (a bank shot from the top of the key). Frankly we could have started Henry at the 2 and had better outside shooting results. If Clark had the yips, Freeman had the shanks; however, he was able to mask his problems by being a much more aggressive driver, and he still managed to put meaningful points on the board. Nevertheless, we were becoming more and more one-dimensional; the wheels were coming off on the offensive end, and opposing coaches were taking notice.

[What temporarily hid our problems was that as AF started slumping, Chris got hot. His 3pt shooting, which was atrocious for most of the year, carried the load for a 3-game stretch (Marquette-UCONN-USF) where he went 12-21.]

3. Oh crap, now Chris gets hurt.

4. At least we still have Julian, right? JV is coming off an inspired stretch of basketball - arguably his best as a Hoya - where he carried us for prolonged periods in several games, most notably the second half against Villanova. I am running low on golf analogies, but suffice to say that JV went Tin Cup and shot a whopping 10% from the field for the rest of the season. We enter the era of 48 ppg.

As Hoya fans, we knew CW was vital to our success, but we were still shocked at how poor the team looked without him. In retrospect, we should not have been. The truth is that most of the team had been underachieving - on a personal level - for many games. Some will argue that it was a systemic (read, coaching) problem, but I don't see it that way. I would argue that this was a very good team that was able to put together a winning streak even as key personnel were turning into ghosts, because of, and not in spite of, the coaching philosophy.

I recall personally lamenting that in the midst of our win streak, we had only one comfortable win (SJU at home). In retrospect it is clear that we were simply never firing on all cylinders during that stretch.

No coach can overcome the loss of essentially all its offensive weapons. Last night VCU went 12-25 from 3, many of which were open shots; we went 5-26, and our shots were just as wide open. Reverse the numbers and we win by 20+.

It may sound trite, but its the shooting, stupid. Last year we lost to USF and the board went ballistic about how the team lacked fire and passion; our next game we smoked Villanova and we were a Hoyatalk consensus Final Four contender. The only difference is that we hit our shots in one game and missed them in the other.

Some may reasonably argue that we should not be so dependent on the 3pt shot. To an extent I agree, and I concede that our talent level in the front court is of a sub-major conference level. Nevertheless, we spread our 3pt scoring risk around 3 or 4 players, unlike, say Seton Hall or Providence.

Last year and early this season, AF and JC were two of the best shooters in the country; one could argue that last season AF was THE best pure shooter in the country. For the last 8 games, he may have been the worst among those who took a meaningful number of shots. You can't fault JTII for drawing up plays for guys with a history of making shots, who then miss them.

On the bright side, I am starting to see a VERY high ceiling for Hollis. I can't recall the last guy we had who could create (and make) his own shot like he can.

We'll get'em next year (or more likely the year after that).

Excellent analysis of our backcourt struggles. Throw in the fact that Henry Sims has struggled to improve in his time on the hilltop (which happens with some players) and the fact that Julian Vaughn was never really an elite player (though he showed flashes of being a good scorer) and we have a very good reason to have scored so few points. Are we REALLY criticizing JTIII when our elite guards lost their shots?

As Pops said earlier this year, it's impressive JTIII was able to get this team to do as well as it did.

Here's hoping we have better success with the longer players coming in. It's worth nothing that, in our Final Four year, we had a top-5 "effective height" (rated by kenpom)... we have been playing smaller since and it has hurt us in rebounding and blocking.

[Z]

"Heart and pride" (or a lack thereof) manifests itself on the defensive end (where we were absolutely terrible) and in ball security (where we were absolutely terrible). So I don't think it's unreasonable to question those things, especially when we see a pattern and the same problems showing up over and over and over across years.

[the_way]

The guys got after it on defense though.

They did last night too. VCU was just tearing our defense apart.

Sometimes you have to give the opponent credit. And VCU flat out beat us and broke us down mentally. Our guys were losing their composure.

[RDF]

Mar 19, 2011 20:37:20 GMT -5 Madgesdiq said:

Mar 19, 2011 20:10:14 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

Great analysis Hoyaholic. Makes a lot more sense (and matches what these eyes saw) than all the blather about "lack of heart and pride" being thrown around here.

Agreed.

RDFs rants jumped the shark in 2005.

Who the EXPLETIVE still references "jumped the shark"?

Like many things related to Georgetown--this explains more then anything I could try to explain. Hey Madge, you got word if Tay Spann has committed or not? I'll hit you up on myspace and we can discuss it! ;D

[RDF]

Coaches recruit the players. Coaches have the players in their program. They see what they do well/what they don't. Coaches are to adjust to the personnel they have--and build around that with type of roster that compliments what the players they have do well/don't do well so they can be better team. Coaches are supposed to adjust when they see things don't work. That applies to half/game/season. 3 years of the same thing not working and not being athletic/quick enough to play small---but not skilled enough to run the system--so he didn't recruit to fit the system.

Fall on the sword--take responsibility/accountability and get back to work. Admitting things stunk isn't failure--it's first step to getting the program back on track.

[NCHoya]

Mar 19, 2011 20:02:28 GMT -5 Hoyaholic said:

OK my turn.

I don't typically post often because usually my thoughts on any particular issue / game have already been well communicated by other, more knowledgeable, posters on the board, but I haven't seen any discussion of what I think was the primary problem this season.

*** Spoiler alert, it's not the coaching.

Our offensive "system", like many others, is predicated on creating quality looks for high-value shots; namely open threes and lay-ups. It was highly successful at doing so. However, in the second half of our season players simply failed to make those shots.

Somehow, during the course of the season, one by one, our players seemed, for lack of a better term, to lose their MoJo (or confidence...or skill...call it what you want).

1. It started with Jason. Early into the BE season we all took note as he seemed to suffer a crisis of confidence. The JC we saw in conference play was frankly a shell of the assassin that iced the Missouri game with three straight dagger 3's in OT. To draw a golfing parallel, he appeared to my eyes to have caught a case of the yips. Although he continued to play solid D and salted away several games for us from the line (a fact that should not be minimized), his outside threat was eliminated, and the team lost one of its "Big Three."

2. Freeman. Oh good lord what happened to Freeman? Perhaps it was the ankle injury, but that doesn't seem to explain the absolute train wreck that was his last 8 games. I posted after the Syracuse game (senior day) that the most disconcerting aspect of the game was that Austin couldn't throw it in the ocean. He had six 3pt attempts in the first half; five misses - not one even caught inside-rim - and one make (a bank shot from the top of the key). Frankly we could have started Henry at the 2 and had better outside shooting results. If Clark had the yips, Freeman had the shanks; however, he was able to mask his problems by being a much more aggressive driver, and he still managed to put meaningful points on the board. Nevertheless, we were becoming more and more one-dimensional; the wheels were coming off on the offensive end, and opposing coaches were taking notice.

[What temporarily hid our problems was that as AF started slumping, Chris got hot. His 3pt shooting, which was atrocious for most of the year, carried the load for a 3-game stretch (Marquette-UCONN-USF) where he went 12-21.]

3. Oh crap, now Chris gets hurt.

4. At least we still have Julian, right? JV is coming off an inspired stretch of basketball - arguably his best as a Hoya - where he carried us for prolonged periods in several games, most notably the second half against Villanova. I am running low on golf analogies, but suffice to say that JV went Tin Cup and shot a whopping 10% from the field for the rest of the season. We enter the era of 48 ppg.

As Hoya fans, we knew CW was vital to our success, but we were still shocked at how poor the team looked without him. In retrospect, we should not have been. The truth is that most of the team had been underachieving - on a personal level - for many games. Some will argue that it was a systemic (read, coaching) problem, but I don't see it that way. I would argue that this was a very good team that was able to put together a winning streak even as key personnel were turning into ghosts, because of, and not in spite of, the coaching philosophy.

I recall personally lamenting that in the midst of our win streak, we had only one comfortable win (SJU at home). In retrospect it is clear that we were simply never firing on all cylinders during that stretch.

No coach can overcome the loss of essentially all its offensive weapons. Last night VCU went 12-25 from 3, many of which were open shots; we went 5-26, and our shots were just as wide open. Reverse the numbers and we win by 20+.

It may sound trite, but its the shooting, stupid. Last year we lost to USF and the board went ballistic about how the team lacked fire and passion; our next game we smoked Villanova and we were a Hoyatalk consensus Final Four contender. The only difference is that we hit our shots in one game and missed them in the other.

Some may reasonably argue that we should not be so dependent on the 3pt shot. To an extent I agree, and I concede that our talent level in the front court is of a sub-major conference level. Nevertheless, we spread our 3pt scoring risk around 3 or 4 players, unlike, say Seton Hall or Providence.

Last year and early this season, AF and JC were two of the best shooters in the country; one could argue that last season AF was THE best pure shooter in the country. For the last 8 games, he may have been the worst among those who took a meaningful number of shots. You can't fault JTII for drawing up plays for guys with a history of making shots, who then miss them.

On the bright side, I am starting to see a VERY high ceiling for Hollis. I can't recall the last guy we had who could create (and make) his own shot like he can.

We'll get'em next year (or more likely the year after that).

Great post. I agree with it, this team was predicated on its backcourt's shooting ability. When they lost confidence the ship sank. To be honest, when you look at the team we put on the court, the results we got speak more to over-achievement by JT3 and staff. Yes, he is accountable for the roster, however, if we are talking just Xs and Os coaching, this team had flaws that made it an unlikely 21 win team with a top 10 RPI for most of the season.

Like you say, the frontcourt was low mid-major level, if that. I think you could conclude our frontcourt was one of the 4 worst in the BE and yet we found a way to win some fairly big games. That should change, but it will take 2 years. Hold JT3 accountable for his horrid recruiting, which will improve with Kirby, but again, I think JT3 got as much production from this roster as possible.

Sometimes, we as fans, have to remove our hometeam bias and see this team for what it was this year, a talented pair of college guards and . . . . . not a whole lot else.

[wahoohoya]

Shooting woes was obviously a huge part of this late season meltdown but it still ultimately falls back to coaching. If it was one bad game that ended the season, then yeah, you can't put that on the coach. But that wasn't the story of this season. We have decent talent losing confidence on the bench while it should be developed which maybe could have provided more of a spark later in the season and taken pressure away from the starters. Markel and Vee probably should have been given more minutes. Vee was a solid role player contributor early on but clearly lost his confidence as the season wore on. And a couple of minutes here and there for Moses at worse helps with his off-season development and at best maybe keeps Julian and Nate a little fresher down the stretch.

[adlai]

Mar 19, 2011 20:10:56 GMT -5 gujake said:

adlai,

I also think in a probabilistic manner and I am also very pro-JT3. Sometimes strange things can happen due to luck or other factors (see Davidson 08).

That said, it's not like we were an extremely good team this year that just got unlucky. We are currently ranked 40th according to KenPom, and that's the worst finish we've had since 2005 when we finished 42nd. We have real problems right now. I don't think we are close to a "crisis", but the problems are real imo.

It's interesting you point this out, HoyaJake. I personally think KenPom's numbers are the best estimate out there. Funny though, because if we were in fact the 40th best team in the country this, one could certainly make the case that JTIII did an admirable job given that ten BE schools are more highly ranked... However, to your main point I actually fully agree. I too don't think this turned out to be one of JTIII's best teams largely for the reasons Hoyaholic cites.

[OldHoyafan]

After Wright's injury it became apparent that JT3 had done his best job of salesmanship at the beginning of the year, by selling to the rest of the league and us fans that the team was a 3 headed monster with good post play by committee. Well the 3 headedmonster was really a 2 headed monster Wright and Freeman. Clark was a non-factor after the OOC games. The center by committee was about the weakest in the BE, and yet this tteam won 21 games and had a winning record in the brutal BE. The players obviously believed his salesmanship too because Clark played above is head in OOC play and so did Vaughn and Sims.

[the_way]

Mar 19, 2011 23:12:23 GMT -5 OldHoyafan said:

After Wright's injury it became apparent that JT3 had done his best job of salesmanship at the beginning of the year, by selling to the rest of the league and us fans that the team was a 3 headed monster with good post play by committee. Well the 3 headedmonster was really a 2 headed monster Wright and Freeman. Clark was a non-factor after the OOC games. The center by committee was about the weakest in the BE, and yet this tteam won 21 games and had a winning record in the brutal BE. The players obviously believed his salesmanship too because Clark played above is head in OOC play and so did Vaughn and Sims.

You nailed it.

Coaches know what they have at the beginning of the season.

They aren't going to say what they have, but as competitors all you can do is compete see what happens. Stranger things have happened. And getting the amount of wins we had and winning more games than losing in the Big East, was probably a surprise.

[Hoyaholic]

Mar 19, 2011 21:11:50 GMT -5 the_way said:

The guys got after it on defense though.

They did last night too. VCU was just tearing our defense apart.

Sometimes you have to give the opponent credit. And VCU flat out beat us and broke us down mentally. Our guys were losing their composure.

Agreed (about the defensive effort part, disagree about the composure).

I thought the 2nd half of the BET game vs UCONN was some of the best effort I saw on the defensive end all year. Still, UCONN made a large percentage of their open shots (which they worked hard to get), and also made a bunch of circus shots, which had to be dispiriting to the team.

The only games this year where I questioned effort were the first St John's game and the WVU game. (Disclosure: work / travel precluded me from seeing either Cincy game). I thought we looked lethargic in each.

Another aspect of this thread on which I meant to comment was the perception among some posters that JTIII's demeanor (and the often-cited accompanying stubbornness) is a detriment to the program's success. I again disagree.

As background I myself wrote a post after we lost at Pitt in Jan 2007 that JTIII's stubbornness had lost us the game, or had at least prevented us from having a chance to come back down the stretch. I felt like we played "our game" with no respect to the realities of the time & situation of a game that was getting away from us, and my perception was that Jamie Dixon had let JTIII hang himself with his own rope. By the time we switched up our strategy and incorporated a press, thereby acknowledging the urgency of the situation, the game was lost. It wasn't until three months later, when the same strategy caused UNC to unravel in the final minutes of the regional final, did I recognize that JTIII had a method to his madness. Just as Ben Hogan (sorry, I am talking golf again) espoused in his definitive book "Five Lessons: The Modern Fundamentals of Golf" that you practice a repeating swing so that it is ready to be tested under pressure; so had JTIII molded a calm, collected group of players who wouldn't panic under pressure, and they executed while a more talented, but unstructured UNC team collapsed.

Fast forward to the last 2-3 years. The temperament of the Hoyas has been a mirror of its Coach: calm, unemotional, and seemingly detached. Some may not like that, but it suits me just fine. Sure, I think we could use a PE Jr-type on the squad to light the occasional fire when needed, but on the whole I trust this team much more that I would trust a team that relies on emotion above all else.

If you are watching the games closely enough, you can see the fire in Chris' eyes, and to a lesser extent in Jason's. The other guys are more reserved, smetimes frustratingly so.

[Hoyaholic]

Mar 19, 2011 23:15:55 GMT -5 the_way said:

Mar 19, 2011 23:12:23 GMT -5 OldHoyafan said:

After Wright's injury it became apparent that JT3 had done his best job of salesmanship at the beginning of the year, by selling to the rest of the league and us fans that the team was a 3 headed monster with good post play by committee. Well the 3 headedmonster was really a 2 headed monster Wright and Freeman. Clark was a non-factor after the OOC games. The center by committee was about the weakest in the BE, and yet this tteam won 21 games and had a winning record in the brutal BE. The players obviously believed his salesmanship too because Clark played above is head in OOC play and so did Vaughn and Sims.

You nailed it.

Coaches know what they have at the beginning of the season.

They aren't going to say what they have, but as competitors all you can do is compete see what happens. Stranger things have happened. And getting the amount of wins we had and winning more games than losing in the Big East, was probably a surprise.

What makes you think that Clark was playing "above his head" early in the season? He was essentially the same player he was for all of last year. If anything, his play down the stretch was the aberration.

I am confident that he will be the team's leader next year (with Markel).

[strummer8526]

Mar 19, 2011 23:18:34 GMT -5 Hoyaholic said:

The temperament of the Hoyas has been a mirror of its Coach: calm, unemotional, and seemingly detached.

You want to root for a basketball team that looks "seemingly detached" from the game? I can watch guys who are "detached" from Georgetown basketball by people-watching out on the sidewalk. When I'm watching the Georgetown basketball team perform on the court, I'd really prefer they be as engaged as possible, physically and emotionally.

[DanMcQ]

Mar 20, 2011 0:54:12 GMT -5 strummer8526 said:

Mar 19, 2011 23:18:34 GMT -5 Hoyaholic said:

The temperament of the Hoyas has been a mirror of its Coach: calm, unemotional, and seemingly detached.

You want to root for a basketball team that looks "seemingly detached" from the game? I can watch guys who are "detached" from Georgetown basketball by people-watching out on the sidewalk. When I'm watching the Georgetown basketball team perform on the court, I'd really prefer they be as engaged as possible, physically and emotionally.

What I don't understand is the immediate leap from players like Austin Freeman, for example, looking "detached" to the conclusion that they are "disinterested" and "unengaged". That jump is not a given, and it is ironic that many here complain bitterly about, for example, Kemba Walker and other UConn player's "preening" during a game while that is exactly what they profess to want from their Hoyas.

[skyhoya]

The root of the team's problem comes from the in-ability to recruit players who are necessary to run the system at a high level, and the inability to adjust to opponents. It seems like we haven't scouted the opposition many times, however, when we get nailed, it is obvious that they have studied what we do and made a game plan for it.

That's all on the coaching staff. The administration needs to make the staff accountable for their failures.

[nathanhm]

Mar 20, 2011 9:08:13 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

Mar 20, 2011 0:54:12 GMT -5 strummer8526 said:

You want to root for a basketball team that looks "seemingly detached" from the game? I can watch guys who are "detached" from Georgetown basketball by people-watching out on the sidewalk. When I'm watching the Georgetown basketball team perform on the court, I'd really prefer they be as engaged as possible, physically and emotionally.

What I don't understand is the immediate leap from players like Austin Freeman, for example, looking "detached" to the conclusion that they are "disinterested" and "unengaged". That jump is not a given, and it is ironic that many here complain bitterly about, for example, Kemba Walker and other UConn player's "preening" during a game while that is exactly what they profess to want from their Hoyas.

i think there is a happy medium, like JT3's Final Four team. Ewing, Sapp, Wallace never seem disengaged. And when Green or Hibbert did seem disengaged, they had 3 teammates ready to bring them back into the game.

[skyhoya]

Final Four team- stars not recruited by III, role players were.. So where have the role players been this year after the starters and first off the bench? If they had a role, they never were given the opportunity to develop. Look at our bench during the game and look at other team's bench layout. Their coaches have the bench players on both sides of the coaches, ours are getting water for III and sit away from the players.

[EtomicB]

Mar 20, 2011 9:31:34 GMT -5 skyhoya said:

Final Four team- stars not recruited by III, role players were.. So where have the role players been this year after the starters and first off the bench? If they had a role, they never were given the opportunity to develop. Look at our bench during the game and look at other team's bench layout. Their coaches have the bench players on both sides of the coaches, ours are getting water for III and sit away from the players.

You too with this nonsense Sky?

Wallace was a STAR on that team right? Who recruited him?

Summers was a big part of the team right? Who recruited him?

PE Jr. was a big part of the team right? Who recruited him?

Sapp was a big part of the team right? Who recruited him?

Roy went to G'town Prep and was coached by imho a G'town great. He regularly came to the campus and practiced with the players, he LOVED G'town! He was gonna be a Hoya no matter what.

As for Jeff, he had every opportunity to go somewhere else but JT3 re-recruited him and he stayed.. Case closed..

This is not to defend JT3 on his coaching this season, he did a bad job and really needs to grow in his craft.. I just can't take the revisionist history when it comes to that FF team and JT3

[EasyEd]

Mar 20, 2011 0:45:03 GMT -5 Hoyaholic said:

Mar 19, 2011 23:15:55 GMT -5 the_way said:

You nailed it.

Coaches know what they have at the beginning of the season.

They aren't going to say what they have, but as competitors all you can do is compete see what happens. Stranger things have happened. And getting the amount of wins we had and winning more games than losing in the Big East, was probably a surprise.

What makes you think that Clark was playing "above his head" early in the season? He was essentially the same player he was for all of last year. If anything, his play down the stretch was the aberration.

I am confident that he will be the team's leader next year (with Markel).

I've always been a fan of Jason's but his play this year was not what I'd expect from him. And that's based on what you refer to which was his performance last year when he was an amazing 3-point shooter. He started this year in the OOC on fire just like last year but suddenly he started missing. Once this happens, often you lose confidence and things go south from there. It's like a long snapper the Redskins had for several year. He was always on the mark. But once he sent one sailing over the holder's head and he was toast after that. He lost confidence and the snaps continued to sail.

The best thing for Jason is the off-season. He needs it to work on his game, particularly his shot and his handle. Hopefully he will regain confidence in his shot and have a great year next year but the psychology of confidence is hard to predict. Here's hoping he gets it back.

Overall, hoyaholic, great post on our problems this year.

[skyhoya]

THE FINAL FOUR TEAM HAD TWO STARS, MAYBE- Jeff and Roy, the rest were role players and that worked well. Nothing since has come close

Wallace was a STAR on that team right? Who recruited him? Not a star has only played in Europe.

Summers was a big part of the team right? Who recruited him? Sittin on the bench in Detroit

PE Jr. was a big part of the team right? Who recruited him? Still in the D league

Sapp- team to team in Europe.

None were stars only role players doing their jobs

Read my post, they were my role players