Hoyas Minutes Breakdown Prediction

[rosslynhoya]

Jul 21, 2010 21:46:13 GMT -5 sleepy said:

based upon history anyone who thinks that Chris and Austin will get much less than 35 mpg has not been watching.

YES. That or they need to cut back on whatever they've been smoking.

I also think it's nigh impossible that Vaughn will see his minutes reduced below the 22mpg he contributed last year, and that figure includes the inexplicable dropoff over the last couple of weeks of the season and BET (again, scurrilous rumor suggested that he had some nagging cold/respiratory bug that he couldn't shake, so I am more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt). We played fast and loose with the JYD comparisons last year, but I really think we're going to see something unique out of him this year, something big and beastly like we haven't seen since Sweetney departed.

I also think people are still selling Benimon short based on their impressions from last year. If he works on his stroke and (warning: broken record) develops a consistent mid-range jumper, he's going to be pushing Hollis and Lubick for PT at the 4, probably to the tune of 15-20mpg. I think this competition is going to be very good for the team, but as a result it's just too soon to make any conclusions.

I think Clark is a different story. 33mpg last year, but there's so much young potential talent on the team this year, I think he's going to end up being the veteran/starter who loses some of his share -- through no fault of his own. I think Vee's a good complement to JC, and should be able to spell him as needed. How much time Bowen (or Starks? is that feasible?) draws here will depend 100% on how fast they adapt to the system.

Henry and Moses are still big question marks all around. I can't fathom anyone making a prediction with regard to either of them.
You're better basketball scouts than I.

[skyhoya]

HSB, a little Optimistic on MS from my mid-court view.

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Jul 22, 2010 9:39:40 GMT -5 rosslynhoya said:

Jul 21, 2010 21:46:13 GMT -5 sleepy said:

based upon history anyone who thinks that Chris and Austin will get much less than 35 mpg has not been watching.

YES. That or they need to cut back on whatever they've been smoking.


I also think people are still selling Benimon short based on their impressions from last year. If he works on his stroke and (warning: broken record) develops a consistent mid-range jumper, he's going to be pushing Hollis and Lubick for PT at the 4, probably to the tune of 15-20mpg. I think this competition is going to be very good for the team, but as a result it's just too soon to make any conclusions.

Having seen several kenner games of benimon it appears he's made no effort to develop a jump shot. Which was really disappointing to me because i feel that's necessary for him to get consistent minutes this upcoming year. He looks exactly like last year. He'll be wide open from 3 and won't take it. In fact i'm not sure he's taken more than 1 or 2 jumpers period.


Jerrelle's lines so far:
Jerrelle: 0-1 2ptFG 0-1 FT 1 TO
Jerrelle 6pts 1-2 2ptFG 4-5FT; 8 rebounds ( 2 offensive), 1 block, 4 turnovers
Jerrelle Benimon: 15 pts, 6-9 2FG, 0-1 3FG, 3-3 FT, 2 rebs, 1 A, 3 TOs, 4 blks

He's only been driving, cutting, and getting scrap points the way he did last year.
all his 2pters are layup attempts.

[skyhoya]

III used him last year to fill the void for Henry. We now have Nate. I don't see Jerelle getting as much run as last year.

[HometownHoya]

Not sure about minutes because that is incredibly vague but I think depth chart (at the beginning of BE play) will be:

Chris
Austin
Hollis
Nate (or whoever is the best rebounder during OOC)
Julian

Bench:
6. J. Clark (for Hollis)
7. H. Sims (for Lubick, may come in 6 if Nate isn't doing well)
8. M. Starks (I think Coach will give Chris the first break)
9. M. Abraham
10. V. Sanford
11. J. Benimon

The starting 4 will be the top rebounder.
The 6th will depend on how the bigs are doing but if they are doing fine then I think J.Clark would come in for Hollis and move Austin to the 3.
I really could see us going 10 deep but 9-10 may only get 3-10 minutes a game.

Also, [antijinx]injuries happen [/antijinx]. I think that may be the only way we will see Benimon and Bowen. Bowen still may have a chance to break the lineup, I haven't seen enough of his play to make an informed decision.

If in practice the two teams play very well against each other, I could see Coach running some of the practice lineup (2nd team) as a whole unit.

[newporthoya]

dense, you do realize that you have seen Markel play 30-40 HS gms right? In that 30-40 gms he has played against D1 talent maybe 10 times. Of that 10, maybe 3 were guards. Im not saying that he wont be great but to think that he couldnt have looked out of control is just foolish.

My hope is that Vee earns 8-15 mins and that Chris and Austin play 28-32 mins. In order for the team to be great Vee, Henry, Nate, Markel, and/or Aaron need to allow Chris and Austin to be fresh in Feb and March....................

[rosslynhoya]

Jul 22, 2010 10:05:36 GMT -5 skyhoya said:

III used him last year to fill the void for Henry. We now have Nate.

Hooray, we have Nate! I guess we should be thankful we didn't lose anyone during the offseason.

[kchoya]

Jul 22, 2010 10:59:20 GMT -5 newporthoya said:

dense, you do realize that you have seen Markel play 30-40 HS gms right?

So 3 or 4 Kenner League games would be a much better sample size and gauge?

[newporthoya]

Jul 22, 2010 13:33:33 GMT -5 kchoya said:

Jul 22, 2010 10:59:20 GMT -5 newporthoya said:

dense, you do realize that you have seen Markel play 30-40 HS gms right?

So 3 or 4 Kenner League games would be a much better sample size and gauge?

Yes. Its not an indicator of what he will be but at 35 I can still give it to alot of HS guards(1 or 2 gms). Before stamina kicks in.........lol...... If you read my entire post and not just focus on the 1st sentence, you would see that I was referring to the level of competition. For most kids there is an time of adjusting.

[nychoya3]

JB plays hard and is a good rebounder for his size, but he is an absolute black hole on offense. Like playing 4 on 5.

[hoyainspirit]

Several posters have predicted Clark off the bench. I just don't see it. Clark starts again, IMO. Minutes may decrease because of more depth, but I believe he remains a starter.

[CO_Hoya]

FWIW, here's last year's minutes chart, as requested (link)

[skyhoya]

If we don't give our sophs significant minutes ( that they think they deserve), then we start the revolving transfer door again. They were all recruited because III saw them filling a need, we might know what that need is, but it probably wasn't for clean up minutes- walk ons can do that.

[HometownHoya]

I'm not sure how he recruited Benimon but I wouldn't be suprised if Benimon knows his minutes are based upon his production.

In reality, I'm sure that he told everyone that but some players believe it more then others.

Henry is the one I can see it really affecting...he seems to love the team though so hopefully he will be fine (if he doesn't improve).

Vee will give Jason a rest.
Hollis will give Austin a rest.
Henry will give Nate/Julian a rest.
J.Benimon will give general trash minutes.

I agree that Jason should be starting but I could see it be a Jessie Sapp situation where its for the better of the team if he provides energy off the bench. It really depends on who shows the most willingness and energy first off the bench.

[mfrekko]

Clark starts again with Wright, Freeman, Julian, and either Hollis or Nate, perhaps depending on the match-up.