kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by kchoya on Jul 20, 2010 20:03:24 GMT -5
Like I said in my last post, it isn't that serious, just offseason chatter. You seem pretty hung up on how "pointless" it is, I think that's kind of a given. I think it's pretty safe to say that III will play somewhere between 6 and 12 guys, more likely between 7 and 9 or 10. And I think people can somewhat reasonably take a stab at who they'll be and how many minutes for each. We may be totally wrong, but hey, it's something to talk about. FWIW, based on history, Giga's lineup is probably the best guess. I would like to think that this will be the year that III finally goes a little deeper, but I'll believe it when I see it. Short rotation with the most talented players, even if the size isn't there, seems to be his inclination. No, you must bow to my rules of internet message board posting! I think guesses at what the overall minutes for each player would be more realistic, as well as what lineups might be used. For example, will JB get more or less than the 12 minutes he averaged last year? Some people, like tonyparker, think he's only going to get three minutes a game this year, which I think is absurd. |
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gujake
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Post by gujake on Jul 20, 2010 20:12:06 GMT -5
I don't think it's pointless at all to slot people into the 3, 4, 5, etc. While it may not make a big difference offensively because of the Princeton, it sure as hell matters for defense.
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gujake
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Post by gujake on Jul 20, 2010 20:26:27 GMT -5
My Hope:
PG: Wright (30), Starks (5), Clark (5)
SG: Clark (20), Sanford (10), Bowen (10)
SF: Freeman (30), Thompson (10)
PF: Lubick (25), Vaughn (10), Benimon (5)
C: Vaughn (15), Sims (15), Abraham (10)
Would really like to make use of the depth we (seem to) have this year. Keep guys fresh, run, and most importantly use the energy to PLAY DEFENSE.
My Guess:
PG: Wright (33), Starks (4), Clark (3)
SG: Clark (30), Bowen (4), Freeman (3)
SF: Freeman (30), Thompson (10)
PF: Lubick (20), Vaughn (10), Thompson (10)
C: Vaughn (20), Sims (20)
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RBHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by RBHoya on Jul 20, 2010 21:01:33 GMT -5
Would be SHOCKED to see us play 12. I think the most you'll see anybody in the country play, even the coaches who run a ton of guys out there like Barnes or Wright, is 10 or "10.5". Last year Nova was trying to give regular PT to 11 guys for a while, but it ultimately hurts continuity. For a team that plays a slower style, running >10 probably makes even less sense. I know everybody, including me, wants to see the younger guys get a chance. But I don't see a situation where III is running guys in and out just to get them on the floor for a couple minutes. He'll play his best guys for as long as he thinks they can handle it without seeing decreased production due to fatigue, and he'll play his best/most trusted bench guys as much as he has to fill in the rest.
To somebody's point from earlier, I don't think Moses will redshirt, I just don't see him playing any minutes of consequence this season. His average at the end of the year may still be somewhere in the 5-10 minute range, like Henrys and Vees were last year, but I think he'll mostly be DNP coach's decision in games that matter. I think we'll have at least 1 and as many as 3 other guys who are similarly stuck on the pine in big games.
This time of the year we all tend to think the new guys will be factors and THIS is the year that III is gonna HAVE TO play his whole bench. Never seems to happen though. I think at least 3 and maybe 4 of our guys will not get minutes of consequence, it's just a question of who. I think it will be Moses, Jerrelle (unless Henry is making mental mistakes again, in which case JB gets his minutes like last year), and at least 1 and maybe 2 out of Vee, Starks, Bowen. Harsh reality I'm afraid.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 20, 2010 21:45:19 GMT -5
PG: Wright (30), Clark (5), Starks (5)
SG: Clark (20, Freeman(10) Sanford (10)
SF: Freeman (15), Thompson (20), Bowen (5)
PF: Lubick (25), Vaughn (10), Benimon (5)
C: Vaughn (15), Sims (20), Moses (5)
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Post by gtowndynasty on Jul 20, 2010 22:00:09 GMT -5
Assuming end of year... My Hope: PG: Wright (30), Starks (5), Clark (5) SG: Clark (20), Sanford (10), Bowen (10) SF: Freeman (30), Thompson (10) PF: Lubick (25), Vaughn (10), Benimon (5) C: Vaughn (15), Sims (15), Abraham (10) Would really like to make use of the depth we (seem to) have this year. Keep guys fresh, run, and most importantly use the energy to PLAY DEFENSE. My Guess: PG: Wright (33), Starks (4), Clark (3) SG: Clark (30), Bowen (4), Freeman (3) SF: Freeman (30), Thompson (10) PF: Lubick (20), Vaughn (10), Thompson (10) C: Vaughn (20), Sims (20) Wait...you hope the heir apparent at pg gets 5 mpg this year? And you hope our sixth man from last year gets his minutes chopped in half in the year that players are supposed to make their biggest jump? Confused as to why that would be your "hope." I cant see this happening at all. I think Markel is likely to see 10+mpg and Hollis definitely will be playing more than 10 mpg. |
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gujake
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by gujake on Jul 20, 2010 23:10:26 GMT -5
To RB's point about nobody playing more than 10... yes I definitely agree. I posted "assuming end of year" but then in my mind I put down averages for the season. My fault there - corrected OP. I only had Starks and Benimon playing 5 mins, and by the end of the year I think they would be cut. Probably either Bowen or Sanford would win out eventually and get that backup SG spot so I am really hoping for a 9 man rotation by the end of the year.
Chris is going to take up a huge amount of minutes at PG. At most we're going to get 10 minutes there. I don't think it's a stretch at all to say Markel is not going to play much his freshmen year.
As for Hollis, yes, I hope he plays a little less this year. I am hoping that Bowen and Vee can play well enough to take some of his minutes, yes... along with a few mins from other guys like Clark too. It's not about him individually, it's about the other guys stepping up.
In my guess, I do have Hollis playing 20, as I think it's likely he does play about the same amount of mins next yr, if not more. I disagree on Markel though. Very, very doubtful he gets to 10+ mins imo.
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skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,496
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Post by skyhoya on Jul 21, 2010 5:35:33 GMT -5
For those of you who haven't watched the new and returning group at Kenner, all the above is pure speculation without foundation. III will decide minutes based upon work and skills shown at real practice, followed by actual performance in games. III's pattern has been, once he gets his rotation, it doesn't change until something happens, .i.e, Tyler or Jessie. Based upon what my old eyes have observed, Hollis will get 30 minutes a game.
Generally ONE freshman can step up and show that they understand the system and they will get significant minutes. I am betting that will be Nate, the least athletic of the four freshmen. The Princeton requires execution and the ability to make your shots, so I think Nate will break out from the freshmen
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dense
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Post by dense on Jul 21, 2010 7:05:44 GMT -5
I predict Vee will get chances early in the season but Markel is just going to be better than him and will not be sitting on the bench. The wildcard is Bowen, I havent gotten a chance to go down to Kenner to see him play, but Hoya fans who have say there is no way he is gonna be on the bench, so i think that spells out even more clog that will be sorted out in pre-season...Nate will play the most ofthe freshmen due to minutes available. Once we get into BE play. I wanna see Wright and Freeman getting 32-34 minutes.
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skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by skyhoya on Jul 21, 2010 7:55:24 GMT -5
dense, you need to watch the lads play before your predict. Markel is more out of control than Chris ever was and Vee plays a good, active guard. Vee has the wingspan like Jason, buit a hair quicker. Markel won't get much run this year.
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Post by bigelephant on Jul 21, 2010 8:10:26 GMT -5
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 21, 2010 10:43:45 GMT -5
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skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by skyhoya on Jul 21, 2010 10:53:39 GMT -5
What positions the board thinks the HOYAS are is a moot point. According to III there are only two positions on his team : BIGS and Guards.
Based on that the minutes are as follos:
Chris 30-35
Austin 30-35
Jason 25 -35
Julian 25-30
Hollis 25-30
Nate 20
Henry 5-10
everyone else :depends on the opponent.
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Post by jkhoya12 on Jul 21, 2010 12:44:28 GMT -5
Again I just can't imagine that Moses will get no run and I disagree that Markel looks more out of control than Chris ever did. The reason it may seem that way is that Markel has not finished his opportunities at the rim in Kenner.
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Post by bigelephant on Jul 21, 2010 13:27:33 GMT -5
Bigs:
Julian - 25-28 min
Henry - 15 - 20
NATE - 15- 20
Moses - 10
Benimon - 5 - at the 4 and 5-8 at the 3
This is an exercise in sheer guessing. If someone steps up, he'll play more - if we need someone's special skills, he'll play more.
If no one steps up ........
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dense
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Post by dense on Jul 21, 2010 20:08:57 GMT -5
dense, you need to watch the lads play before your predict. Markel is more out of control than Chris ever was and Vee plays a good, active guard. Vee has the wingspan like Jason, buit a hair quicker. Markel won't get much run this year. Sky errrr........ I have seen Markel play alot over the past 3 years(venture to say 30 to 40 games)...I think he is a better shooter and distributer than Vee will ever be now. Kenner doesnt really show everything either. Not having seen the games you have, dont ever see him being more outta control than Chirs ever was...Chris his first year in Kenner, would try to Iverson everything, drive into 5 guys stuff like that.... I just don't see Vee being a PG, thats all. When I see him get into the lane and find people I'll be more confident about his prospects...Like I said I think he will be given every chance to earn PT in the non-conference. But I'm just not as high on him as some are. I think he can put the ball in the hoop, just dont know if he has the physical ability to in the BE night in and out. While Markel has a legit J and drive and dish ability already. Would be hard to play Zone on us with him and Chris/Jason/Austin/Hollis as the other 2 wings. |
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skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by skyhoya on Jul 21, 2010 20:28:54 GMT -5
Vee is a shooting guard, not a point, but they are all guards in the O. Don't see Markel getting much run until he learns the system. Should have a good soph year, but have to get to the weight room.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jul 21, 2010 21:46:13 GMT -5
based upon history anyone who thinks that Chris and Austin will get much less than 35 mpg has not been watching. The big battle i think will be if Hollis can actually earn real minutes at the 3 effectively forcing Clark to the bench. I think this utimately is a more effective lineup both offensively and defensively with a great deal of flexibility. Like to see Clark and Hollis both get about 25 min spread betwen the 2,3, and 4. I hope the bigs show the ability to play because i'm very dissappointed in our abilty to defend with the small line-up that we put on the floor for much of last year. While im encouraged by llls comments on depth history tells me once the BE rolls into january we will only see a 8 man rotation.
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dense
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by dense on Jul 22, 2010 0:58:12 GMT -5
Sleepy I pretty much agree....Chris and Austin need to be playing close to 35 mins a game. Other than that I think its all fluid. It will be based on who progresses like III's comments in that article. Remember this time last year all III was talking about was how he expected Sims to be that other starter. Never happened as we know. I just think he will give the upperclassmen a chance to be in the rotation and will go with freshmen when they are just too good to keep off the floor. Remember Summers was the same way his freshman year, Austin too. they dont start or play much early then just take minutes if other options dont pan out.
To answer Sky, III says that and its true its a two guard front, but we've seen how Jason being a PG at times has been disasterous..I think Vee being a full-time PG would be like that if we got pressed....Props to Jason for being alot better last year at handling and making decisions, still not at the level needed...I just think Markel's handle and decision making is of a PG, and will be needed especailly when Chris isnt in the game. I think it will show over the 1st part of the year especially when he is making open 3's.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 22, 2010 9:25:49 GMT -5
I really hope our options are good enough that we no longer have to play chris and austin 35 minutes a game. It's not good to rely on players for that many minutes. I want Austin and Chris to not play more than 30 minutes at max. I don't want them to not be 100% at the end of games.
We are so stacked at guard right now there's no reason for anyone to be playing 35 minutes. With Chris, Austin, Jason, Markel, Vee, and bowen able to cover the 1-2 spots we've got more guard talent than almost anyone with only nova and duke being able to claim otherwise.
Besides Chris, Markel is the only other true PG. That being said the PG has to fully grasp the system and must be able to make good decisions. It's hard because i've only seen him in kenner and an all star game, so I haven't seen quality play making yet. I'm sure he has that ability, but I haven't seen it yet. Vee and Jason have clearly been working on their handles. I think they can be more than serviceable running a little point. They have the advantage of experience over markel. the worry about press is overblown seeing as more often than not it doesn't happen. Louisville is the team that does it most consistently with only a handful of other ever bothering to try it( uconn, marquette, nova). There's no point in not playing someone cause a couple times a year they'll get pressed. I think markel will get 10-5 minutes a game, and I think he will be the starting pg his sophomore year. But until he proves it in practice I go with the junior and the sophomore until he proves he can grasp the system, run the team, and displays good decision making.
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