Anatomy of a Failure

[EasyEd]

We have another but it's called a Jobs Bill rather than Stimulus II.

[jerseyhoya34]

www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/110xx/doc11044/02-23-ARRA.pdf

CBO released a report today suggesting that the stimulus created at least 1 million jobs in the 4th quarter of 2009. The table on page 9 is helpful to cut through some of the tougher to read portions of the report. Still more to be done, but things seem to be improving gradually.

[Elvado]

Feb 23, 2010 23:14:10 GMT -5 @jerseyhoya34 said:

www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/110xx/doc11044/02-23-ARRA.pdf

CBO released a report today suggesting that the stimulus created at least 1 million jobs in the 4th quarter of 2009. The table on page 9 is helpful to cut through some of the tougher to read portions of the report. Still more to be done, but things seem to be improving gradually.

I guess that's good news. how many of those "created jobs" are private sector?

[hoyainspirit]

Feb 24, 2010 9:34:38 GMT -5 Elvado said:

I guess that's good news. how many of those "created jobs" are private sector?

Doesn't matter, if you needed a job and got one of them.

[Elvado]

Feb 24, 2010 11:44:57 GMT -5 hoyainspirit said:

Feb 24, 2010 9:34:38 GMT -5 Elvado said:

I guess that's good news. how many of those "created jobs" are private sector?

Doesn't matter, if you needed a job and got one of them.

Does matter if I'm paying for something no one needs...

[hoyainspirit]

Feb 24, 2010 11:47:54 GMT -5 Elvado said:

Feb 24, 2010 11:44:57 GMT -5 hoyainspirit said:

Doesn't matter, if you needed a job and got one of them.

Does matter if I'm paying for something no one needs...

Not to the person who got a needed job.

[Elvado]

Agreed. But in the real world, where most politicians of every stripe fear to tread, a benefit to one usually comes at the expense of many.

[Cambridge]

Feb 24, 2010 9:34:38 GMT -5 Elvado said:

Feb 23, 2010 23:14:10 GMT -5 @jerseyhoya34 said:

www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/110xx/doc11044/02-23-ARRA.pdf

CBO released a report today suggesting that the stimulus created at least 1 million jobs in the 4th quarter of 2009. The table on page 9 is helpful to cut through some of the tougher to read portions of the report. Still more to be done, but things seem to be improving gradually.

I guess that's good news. how many of those "created jobs" are private sector?

There are actually less public sector jobs now than on the day Obama took office.

[Elvado]

Feb 24, 2010 15:10:02 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

Feb 24, 2010 9:34:38 GMT -5 Elvado said:

I guess that's good news. how many of those "created jobs" are private sector?

There are actually less public sector jobs now than on the day Obama took office.

Good to know that there are fewer public sector jobs. There need to be still fewer. Does that analysis include Government Motors or any of the other now-captive concerns?

[jerseyhoya34]

I did a quick scan of the CBO report and it does not say how many were in the private sector. Perhaps getting info from the individual soviets was too burdensome.

[Cambridge]

I assume Elvado is referring to this analysis:
biggovernment.com/vderugy/2010/02/23/more-on-my-public-sector-fat-cat-obsession/

Here's the problem I have with the analysis on that blog:

1) January 2009 - Obama takes office with private sector jobs falling and government jobs at an all time high.

2) February 2009 - Stimulus was passed, followed by a quick spike in government jobs, private sector still in freefall.

3) May 2009 - Three months after the stimulus is passed, the private sector appears to start leveling off, government jobs start steep decline.

4) July 2009 - Five months after the stimulus is passed, the private sector continues to level off, the government sector drops to lowest level since May 2008.

5) Sept 2009 - Seven months after the stimulus is passed, the private sector levels off completely, the government sector spikes but then declines again.

6) January 2010 - Eleven months after the stimulus is passed, the private sector has leveled off and the government sector is lowest since May 2008.

So reading that chart produced by no fan of the stimulus, I conclude that the stimulus was not the cause of a spike in government employment (as that rise was already in place) and actually seems to have caused a decline, and it appears to have stemmed and now stopped job loss in the private sector. Am I missing something?

BTW I find it intellectually disingenuous that this chart starts in January 2008, more than a year before the stimulus as if to suggest the government growth shown on the chart was caused directly by the stimulus. when in reality the stimulus bill was passed at about the midpoint in the chart.

[kchoya]

Feb 24, 2010 17:50:23 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

So reading that chart produced by no fan of the stimulus, I conclude that the stimulus was not the cause of a spike in government employment (as that rise was already in place) and actually seems to have caused a decline, and it appears to have stemmed and now stopped job loss in the private sector. Am I missing something?

Only if you believe that the stimulus package is the only factor that would have affected jobs over the past year and whatever.

[Cambridge]

Feb 24, 2010 17:55:09 GMT -5 kchoya said:

Feb 24, 2010 17:50:23 GMT -5 Cambridge said:

So reading that chart produced by no fan of the stimulus, I conclude that the stimulus was not the cause of a spike in government employment (as that rise was already in place) and actually seems to have caused a decline, and it appears to have stemmed and now stopped job loss in the private sector. Am I missing something?

Only if you believe that the stimulus package is the only factor that would have affected jobs over the past year and whatever.

That is certainly true, I won't argue with that. There certainly are a host of other factors that are likely in play. However, I was responding to the notion that the stimulus only caused growth in the government sector to the detriment of the private sector, which does not appear to have been the case based on the chart. That is, unless, the stimulus's effects were outweighed by other factors - a possibility that seems unlikely.

[Boz]

Feb 23, 2010 23:14:10 GMT -5 @jerseyhoya34 said:

www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/110xx/doc11044/02-23-ARRA.pdf

CBO released a report today suggesting that the stimulus created at least 1 million jobs in the 4th quarter of 2009. The table on page 9 is helpful to cut through some of the tougher to read portions of the report. Still more to be done, but things seem to be improving gradually.

Maybe not.....

www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/03/Stimulus-Jobs-Count-CBO-Admits-It-Ignored-the-Economys-Actual-Performance