dailey247
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Post by dailey247 on Feb 4, 2009 13:26:51 GMT -5
Some of these points come up in passing in other threads, but I wanted to lay out my entire case and invite you jackals to tear me apart. Call me an idiot if you must, but please leave my mom out of this. (N.B. to any SFSers out there - I will be quoting numbers in this post, or as some like to call them, "facts." If this frightens you, set up a "group project" thread to talk about how it makes you feel.)
My starting five (minutes per game they should be getting)
Wright (30) Freeman (28) Summers (33) Sims (22) Monroe (30)
Bench, in the order in which they should enter the game
Sapp (19) Clark (19) Vaughn (10) Mescheriakov (8) Wattad (1)
Let's start with the most dramatic change: Henry Sims, and a lot of him. I love what happens to this team when Sims is on the floor, especially when he's on the floor WITH Monroe, and not INSTEAD OF Monroe. Sims is the second best defensive rebounder on the team, coming in with a DR% of 13.4, behind only the 15.0 mark put up by Monroe. This is far from an elite figure, but beggars can't be choosers. With Greg and Henry on the floor at the same time, we might sometimes resemble an actual basketball team that collects a loose ball once in a while. Sims also leads the team with a 7.5 Block%. He's no Thabeet out there, but he certainly helps the team on defense. Given that, prior to the Rutgers game, we were on a streak of 6 bad-to-brutal defensive performances, I think this is one area we might want to focus on improving. You may be thinking to yourself that Sims has the worst Offensive Rating and Effective FG% on the team, and only 4th on the team in Offensive Rebounding%, and thus might be considered a liability on the other end of the floor. I have three rebuttals to this. First, early in the season Sims was spending a lot of time drifting around the perimeter shooting jumpers that did not fall. In 2009, however, he's 8-16 from the field, a much more respectable FG%. Also, now that he's spending more time around the rim, I suspect - but can not prove - that he's been more efficient on the offensive glass. Finally, I think he's much easier to stop when he's the lone big man out there. But when he plays the high-low with Greg - especially against a zone - he really becomes a factor. See the play against Rutgers when Monroe got the ball in the soft spot, the D moved up to challenge, and Sims slipped in behind them, caught a perfect Monroe-brand bounce pass, and scored. So, while I am definitely not arguing that Sims should be our primary option, I at least think we need to give him some run in situations where he can be an effective contributor. Finally, one last stat that PROVES Sims should be playing more: Georgetown's record in 2009 when Sims plays >10 minutes: 3-1 Georgetown's record in 2009 when Sims plays <10 minutes: 0-6
Moving on - Jessie Sapp. "He's our only senior! We need his leadership! He's tough as nails! You can't bench him, that would be a slap in the face and ruin his confidence, sour him on the team, lead to him intentionally throwing inbounds passes to the other team! Grumble, grumble, rabble, rabble!" Save it. Not only is Sapp struggling, he's not terribly productive at his best. His O Rating last year, when he was not struggling, was 105, which would still trail Monroe, Summers, Wright, Freeman, and Clark on this years team. The current model, which only manages a 99.5, simply does not deserve to play 27 minutes a game. And if he really is the mentally tough leader that we think he is, he won't let coming off the bench bother him. He'll be ready to contribute whenever we need him. I think he could benefit from playing with Wright less. A Sapp-Clark or Sapp-Freeman backcourt lets him handle the ball more and look to drive, instead of trying to be the catch-and-shoot guy who has been missing all those jumpers. TAKE IT TO THE HOLE JESSIE!
Vaughn. Some people don't think he should play much. I think you've got a touch of the Nikitis. He rebounds well at both ends (only player on the team with double digit OR% and DR%), and blocks a few shots. When Monroe is out and Sims is in, Vaughn should be in too. He's a role player. Let him play his role.
Mescheriakov. It's cool that we have a Euro jump shooter on the team. He doesn't take dumb shots, and he knocks down his share of threes. He is not Dirk Nowitzki. Anything he gives us is gravy.
Wattad. My camel's back broke last night when he drove into three defenders backward and threw the ball away. I'm just not seeing the benefit to him playing much. Anything he can do, Nikita can do taller.
OK, that's it. Fire away.
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McBricks
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Post by McBricks on Feb 4, 2009 13:41:25 GMT -5
Reasoned? Don't you understand the point of this board?
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 4, 2009 13:44:03 GMT -5
Some of these points come up in passing in other threads, but I wanted to lay out my entire case and invite you jackals to tear me apart. Call me an idiot if you must, but please leave my mom out of this. (N.B. to any SFSers out there - I will be quoting numbers in this post, or as some like to call them, "facts." If this frightens you, set up a "group project" thread to talk about how it makes you feel.) I didn't know SFS students got to do group projects! I thought it was only the MSB. I guess this shows, once again, the superiority of Georgetown College to all others.
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GUHoya07
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Post by GUHoya07 on Feb 4, 2009 13:49:54 GMT -5
Wasn't he making fun of the MSB with the group project thing? Anyway, I agree about the college clearly being the best.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 4, 2009 13:55:18 GMT -5
My starting five (minutes per game they should be getting) Wright (30) Freeman (28) Summers (33) Sims (22) Monroe (30) Bench, in the order in which they should enter the game Sapp (19) Clark (19) Vaughn (10) Mescheriakov (8) Wattad (1) - I don't think starting means much, and I would rather not bench a guy, so I'm just going to ignore that part and look at the minutes, which I feel are more important.
- I assume also this is some kind of average minutes? Play during a game and matchups should go a long way to determining minutes.
- My only gripe would be the minutes for Sapp. I feel like he's played much better recently and is one of the few mentally tough people on the team, and one of the most committed to D.
We need him to set the tone on the floor. I'd give him more time, and especially since Austin at the 2 may be a defensive issue.
It's very clear that Sims does not play the Monroe role; that's Vaughn's role as a backup. I'm a huge fan of getting Henry out there defensively for rebounding and shotblocking, especially since Monroe has stopped contesting nearly as many shots (I think to avoid foul trouble and rebound). Length is big. That said, what are we doing with the half the league that runs quick three guard sets with combo PFs? We'll lose the quickness advantage at three positions (2,3,4). Is the height enough to make up for that? Henry certainly isn't going to punish opposing fours. No doubt Henry is vastly improving as an offensive player. He even created a little himself in the last game, which we hadn't seen at all. However, he's a complementary offensive player right now. Which is fine. Just whatever lineup is out there, he needs to be with creators. Unfortunately doesn't prove much. What's our career record with Jansen in the game? Jessie's leadership isn't needed on offense as much as it is on D. Our team lapses on D much more than it should. Jessie is one of the few I see consistent effort from. I think he's actually the best at running the offense right now as well. I think that Clark is completely unready to be a point and would like to see Jessie or Wright on the floor at all times. Slightly different than what you are saying, but the result may be the same. While I'd like all our guys to be more aggressive, Jessie was a very good shooter last year. I don't know what has happened to our shooting this year, but Jessie was a very good catch and shoot guy last year. For better or worse, he's our primary backup to Greg -- that's the role he's been playing. He's not a good defensive rebounder and he's awful with the ball. Those are the issues. But he's had his good days as well. There's really not adjusting his minutes too much unless you think Sims can be a distributor or you think we can function well without that role. Either one could be true, but I don't know it they are. Of course not. But he's miles ahead of Sead. He's (eligibility-wise) a freshman and has frankly shown as much as Sims, though in different areas. He plays hard. Runs the office. Makes some shots. Works on D. He's long. We need his shooting at times. Offensively, I think you're right. Defensively, it's all about matchups. Nikita has been playing much more four than three. I'm not sure how he'd fare in a man to man situation against smaller players. --------------- Overall, it's a good argument. There are counterarguments as well, and matchup arguments, etc. It's tough to say that the coaches are wrong in what they run. I suspect Sims earns more time based on his play. Nikita obviously has. There will be games where neither plays much and people are outraged (well, on Sims). But it'll probably be because of matchups.
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Post by dungeon ball on Feb 4, 2009 14:00:31 GMT -5
Dailey makes sense to me.
A question about Sims, though. I love what he brings on offense and seems to have a pretty good nose for blocked shots, but does he have the foot speed to play man-on-man D when he's on the other team's 4? Have we been playing mostly zone when he's out there with Greg? I don't really know, but I was wondering that this could be a reason why he hasn't gotten as much run as we would all like.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 4, 2009 14:02:39 GMT -5
I like Sims too, however I also agree with SFHoya's oft-repeated argument that the reason we haven't seen as much Sims as we would like has more to do with unfavorable matchups than it has to do with Sims.
Sims can not play significant minutes if we play a team that employs 3 and 4 guard sets. The game of basketball has two aspects: offense and defense.
On the offensive side, we all like what we're seeing out of Sims. The guy is finding his place in the offense, is taking good quality shots and is a great passer. When he's on, he's a joy to watch. However, at this point he's still going to put up at best 10 points in extended minutes.
On the defensive side, if we are playing against a four guard lineup, Sims cannot guard a guard. If we are playing against a three guard lineup and Sims is in, Summers must guard a guard - also a big problem. Therefore, JTIII has decided that the defensive weaknesses due to playing Sims against these types of lineups is not worth the offense Sims brings to the table.
I imagine JTIII has estimated that Sims playing in that situation creates a mismatch that is more easily and reliably exploited by the opposition, resulting in a negative contribution from Sims despite his best efforts.
The real reason we have seen little of Sims is because of the troubling Big East trend towards very guard centric teams. Bring back the BEast, not these three and four guard lineups. Stupid officiating has turned the college game into a small man's game.
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hoyabinx
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Post by hoyabinx on Feb 4, 2009 14:12:49 GMT -5
I imagine JTIII has estimated that Sims playing in that situation creates a mismatch that is more easily and reliably exploited by the opposition, resulting in a negative contribution from Sims despite his best efforts. I think this a great point. Sims/Monroe/Summers creates a matchup nightmare for opposing teams when we are on offense, a la Hibbert/Green/Summers, but the difference between those two lineups is that the Hibbert/Green/Summers matchup had no problems shutting down other teams players on the defensive side while I doubt Sims/Monroe/Summers could do the same with consistency against the guard-oriented teams, thus negating the awesomeness of 6'8'', 6'11, 6'10''. frontline.
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dailey247
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Post by dailey247 on Feb 4, 2009 14:14:19 GMT -5
First off, I guess my joke at the top is a little clunky. It was a simultaneous swipe at the SFS, for not knowing about numbers, the MSB, for working in groups, and those smart enough to get admitted to the College, but still majored in English or something else that didn't have final exams, and instead wrote papers about their feelings. And for the nurses - Are you doing anything this weekend?
Also, excellent point about Sims not being able to guard some people. We could play a little more zone to help with this, or sub in Sapp or Clark for Freeman or Summers more against this kind of lineup, or just play Sims less against teams like that. However, given how lifeless we've looked recently, my main thesis is that we need to try a major change. There will always be tradeoffs.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 4, 2009 14:23:31 GMT -5
Sims/Monroe/Summers creates a matchup nightmare for opposing teams when we are on offense, a la Hibbert/Green/Summers, I don't think this is all that big of a matchup nightmare, actually. In what way is a tall lineup a nightmare? 1. When it offensive rebounds. We don't. Maybe we would with Sims. 2. When the 3/4 can post up against smaller players. DaJuan does this once every two games and is successful not too often. I'm not sure if I've seen Sims on a postup. 3. Height advantages make jumpers easier. This works a bit. DaJuan trying to drive on guards scares me from a turnover perspective.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Feb 4, 2009 14:30:42 GMT -5
Dajuan at the three, dribbling against other true three's and shooting guards playing the three, scares me to no end.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 4, 2009 14:36:23 GMT -5
Finally, one last stat that PROVES Sims should be playing more: Georgetown's record in 2009 when Sims plays >10 minutes: 3-1 Georgetown's record in 2009 when Sims plays <10 minutes: 0-6 As SFHoya99 pointed out, if you excelled at math you clearly struggled at logic. What was our all time record in games in which Sead Dizdarevic played? Clearly this proves he should have played more. Are you sparing only Math majors from the College from your zingers, by the way? Other than Ruben Boumtje Boumtje, something tells me that the list of reknowned Georgetown alumni doesn't include many of these. There have been too many gaps in what I've been able to watch of recent games for me to fully evaluate your proposal here but on the whole I tend to be skeptical of analysis that boils down to little more than "Bigger is Better." Unfortunately, when looking around the league this year, I'm not sure that's right.
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Post by HoyasAreHungry on Feb 4, 2009 14:41:02 GMT -5
SF I feel like you are arguing the points rather than the actual point behind it....I am not saying we need to do anything drastic...I believe it really only matters who plays the most minutes not really who starts..however....when I have seen the lineup of Sims and Monroe I am looking at the eye test....with both in we have the quick passes and easy buckets has dramatically increased....I really think when we play against a zone for example this is BY FAR our best way to break it. They play off of eachother very well. Not only would this allow DaJuan to be able to slide over to his natural 3 and Austin to the 2 but I do think it causes matchup issues...Sims was a post player in high school and can finish around the rim much better than i've seen out of our other low post options. I think most of us can agree that we have been missing a PF in our system...our most effective team has been with Jeff as a PF (who has SF capability) as it looks like Sims is being molded into to an extent. I'm pretty sure that defensively like you said unless we are playing against an extremely small 3 guard offense we will be fine defensively and playing zone is not a bad idea. In the end though I really feel like we click a little better when Sims has played look at the Providence game I thought we looked real good when he was in. No he is not the end all be all and not our savior of the season but i like what I see when he is in and I'm pretty sure we'd like to see more whether or not he is coming off the bench or starting
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Feb 4, 2009 14:43:12 GMT -5
I thought it was a well thought out post with good analysis.
And of course, you could point to Saed. But something tells me that Dailey was thinking about players who play major minutes and who have the chance to make a big contribution.
Not sure why Big Dog vilified him, but I thought it was a very good post.
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Post by bbb71 on Feb 4, 2009 14:56:30 GMT -5
I agree with Dailey. Sims should play considerably more, and Omar should play considerably less...and if that means he never sees the floor, oh well. Best case, Sims starts in a Wright, Freeman, Summers, Sims, Monroe lineup.
While I'm not going to bother with any of that stastical analysis, it's pretty obvious to me that the Sims/Monroe partnership has passed the eye test when they've played together. And if we are talking about match-up problems: (1) Sims is quite mobile for his size and (2) give me the match-up problem where we're the team with more size and length.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 4, 2009 15:30:40 GMT -5
A reasoned argument, but there is simply no way JT3 is taking the senior captain out of the starting lineup. Not gonna happen. Not even worth discussing.
But who cares who starts anyway? I agree that Henry needs to see more minutes, and consistent ones. Right now, even as we play to get a 7-10 seed in the NCAAs, this season is already more about the future than the present, so it's kind of a no-brainer to get the youngsters like Henry, Nikita and Jason as much PT as possible. Not Omar, however. He makes the team worse whenever he's out there.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 4, 2009 15:35:40 GMT -5
A reasoned argument, but there is simply no way JT3 is taking the senior captain out of the starting lineup. Not gonna happen. Not even worth discussing. But who cares who starts anyway? I agree that Henry needs to see more minutes, and consistent ones. Right now, even as we play to get a 7-10 seed in the NCAAs, this season is already more about the future than the present, so it's kind of a no-brainer to get the youngsters like Henry, Nikita and Jason as much PT as possible. Not Omar, however. He makes the team worse whenever he's out there. I'm glad to see Omar has fully inherited River's role on the team.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Feb 4, 2009 15:40:53 GMT -5
With all this talk about matchup problems, I'm wondering who exactly Wattad matches up well with. Shooting poorly, can't guard anyone... what "matchup" does he play well in? And I think most of the people who want to see Sims play more (myself included) would be taking a lot of those minutes from Wattad.
Also, to compare the >10 minutes with win-loss records for Sims next to Jansen and Sead is absolutely ridiculous. No, it's not proving a causal relationship, but Sims has played meaningful minutes in all of those games, so it's not a bad argument to bring up.
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dailey247
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Post by dailey247 on Feb 4, 2009 15:54:12 GMT -5
For the record, my use of the word "PROVES" was sarcastic. Following 2 long paragraphs' worth of APBRmetrics, I wanted to highlight a simple coincidence that also favored my argument. I know that this is in no way definitive. I just wanted to throw it out there.
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GPHoya
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Post by GPHoya on Feb 4, 2009 16:27:18 GMT -5
I agree with the core point that Henry looked like he should get at least a sniff (4+) in both halfs and that he is most effective when he plays with Greg and not in lieu of Greg. Like the rest of our young players, he will have good games and bad ones, but he changes the dynamic when he is out there more than Omar generally does.
A related correct point is that we need to play zone when Henry and Greg are in the line-up, particularly if either Dajuan or Nikita are also playing. I have the sense that we don't really practice playing zone or that our coaches don't teach it well because they don't believe in it. I share the bias, but our personnel might do better if we could switch up between 2-3, 1-3-1 (excellent for the long team that includes Sims and Clark in theory) and match up man. The defensive effort was a lot better last night, except for the second half lapse. Even our ragged zone was effective (albeit against a terrible team).
If our big four (Greg, Dajuan, Chris and Austin) would more consistently have good games on the same night, all of this agitation over the bench would be less important. I agree that taking Jesse out of the starting line-up is unnecessary to implement more use of Henry and Nikita if Austin stays in a funk.
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