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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Feb 18, 2008 9:32:17 GMT -5
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Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Jack on Feb 18, 2008 11:02:47 GMT -5
Very, very close? That's not what I have been hearing- even Hillary's people seem to have given up on Wisconsin.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Feb 18, 2008 11:19:18 GMT -5
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Feb 18, 2008 11:24:02 GMT -5
Hillary may make it closer than expected, but with open primaries, no GOP race, and same day registration (with some huge liberal college campuses, too), there is no chance she actually wins the state.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 18, 2008 11:33:02 GMT -5
Interesting take on Wisconsin...basically suggests that Hillary realizes the state is leaning further toward her than most pundits and will be able to make a big "what a shock! what a surprise!" speech when she does well. www.slate.com/id/2184491 |
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Feb 18, 2008 13:57:28 GMT -5
What, nobody cares about Hawaii?
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 18, 2008 22:49:37 GMT -5
This race is about to get ugly, especially if Obama sweeps tomorrow. In that case, HRC is just about boxed in to having to win TX or OH convincingly, I think, and she will not hesitate to campaign negatively with her back against the wall.
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vcjack
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Post by vcjack on Feb 19, 2008 11:09:19 GMT -5
Hillary may make it closer than expected, but with open primaries, no GOP race, and same day registration (with some huge liberal college campus, too), there is no chance she actually wins the state. Fixed, UW Madison is the only politically active campus of note (but less hippies than the normal stereotype) There is a lot of anti Hilary sentiment HOWEVER blizzard conditions may keep turnout low and a growing hispanic population might go for her. I still expect Obama to win but it will be close |
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 19, 2008 12:21:43 GMT -5
The issue though is that Wisconsin on paper has a better demographic makeup for Obama - more latte liberals and less union liberals, not a Latino in sight - and its still close. But it also has white women as the dominant demographic group of voters, and a ton of working-class white rural voters, which would seem to favor Hillary. I agree that the spin will be pro-Hillary, if she keeps it within five or so, but I challenge how much of a surprise success that will be. If it's a 10-point or more win, the story pretty much stays the same as it's been, and if Obama pulls out a 15-20 point victory (or even more, a Virginia-sized triumph, another state where polls were close), then the momentum argument grows, and the argument for more negative ads will be blunted, though clearly, HRC will be running out of other options. |
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on Feb 19, 2008 12:53:09 GMT -5
You ever been to Milwaukee? |
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Feb 19, 2008 13:10:41 GMT -5
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Feb 19, 2008 13:40:41 GMT -5
The issue though is that Wisconsin on paper has a better demographic makeup for Obama - more latte liberals and less union liberals, not a Latino in sight - and its still close. You won't find "Latinos" in Wisconsin...sort of. There is an ongoing debate on the name "Hispanic vs. Latino". Hispanic (which officially refers to Spanish-language residents) is a more accepted term in the center of the country, while the coasts tend to refer to Latino (which could also include Brazillians, for example). Throw in Californians that use the phrase Chicano, and it's a whole mess of nomenclature. |
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Feb 19, 2008 15:41:59 GMT -5
This race is about to get ugly, especially if Obama sweeps tomorrow. In that case, HRC is just about boxed in to having to win TX or OH convincingly, I think, and she will not hesitate to campaign negatively with her back against the wall. Correct. Very very ugly if Clinton's campaign follows through with this threat: www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8583.html |
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vcjack
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Post by vcjack on Feb 19, 2008 16:11:18 GMT -5
It is more interesting to see if Hillary pushes for Florida and Michigan to be counted, I believe she hinted that she might if she needed them
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 19, 2008 16:16:13 GMT -5
That would cause a collapse of the Democratic Party and pretty much validate every criticism that's ever been leveled against the Clintons. It would also be all for nothing, because if this tactic was used, Hillary would definitely lose the 2008 election to McCain due to the extreme number of defections from the party out of disgust. Way to kill a revival of grassroot enthusiasm for the party with a bald-faced power grab.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Feb 19, 2008 16:19:33 GMT -5
It is more interesting to see if Hillary pushes for Florida and Michigan to be counted, I believe she hinted that she might if she needed them I don't think there's any "if" about it....in either half of your sentence. |
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Feb 19, 2008 19:45:23 GMT -5
Exit polls suggest Obama will win tonight between 10% and 20%. He is ahead among women, and, according to several blogs, the chatter seems to be that this will be an Obama evening.
Obama's grassroots support is second to none, and his campaign has found a way to mobilize grassroots nationally for each of these 2-3 state primary/caucus nights. If I wanted to contact a voter in Hawaii right now and urge them to vote, I could.
If he wins tonight, the media is most likely going to fit it within this frame of "Obama is chipping away at Clinton's base."
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Feb 19, 2008 23:05:47 GMT -5
Most news outlets have called Wisconsin for Obama (whom, thanks to a post from Wonkette, I will now refer to as the "Hawaiian shark god"). Interestingly enough, he apparently did very well with some of Hillary's core constituents - www.slate.com/id/2184689/Even more interesting? This poll asks if Hillary should quit - www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23243479/?GT1=10856 . What a brutal fall for the presumptive nominee a few months ago. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2008 9:17:00 GMT -5
But it also has white women as the dominant demographic group of voters... I feel so sorry for the middle aged white women throughout America. Every soccer mom, every hockey mom. Every mother taking little Suzie to SAT prep courses, every mother taking little Johnny to drivers ed. They are confronted with the most difficult decision of our times. On the one hand, they MUST be drawn to voting for one of their own, HRC. On the other hand, Oprah is telling them to vote for Obama. What to do... WHAT TO DO?!?!?!?!?! |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Feb 20, 2008 13:03:26 GMT -5
Can I ask a stupid question?
I apologize for my political ignorance if there is a sensible answer to this, but....WTF, Washington?
Why did they have a primary last night after the caucuses earlier this month?
I think there were some delegates at stake for the GOP, but why do they divide their delegates up into the caucus and the primary?
On the Dem side, it's even stranger, since ALL of their delegates were awarded during the caucus and nothing was at stake last night.
Do the other caucus states do this? If so, why? If not, what the hell are they putting in the coffee and/or salmon up there in Evergreen land?
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