Worse Opening Day?

[Jack]

Could be wrong (first time for everything) but I recall there being elements of Ebbets Field in the design for the new Yankee Stadium too- particularly the entryway behind the plate. Cannot find the designs right now, so not sure.

[miamihoya]

If only all teams had owners with pockets as deep at Steinbrenners and Wilpons and local politicians as cooperative and baseball friendly as New Yorks then there would be no talks of relocation anywhere.

[AustinHoya03]

Heard something interesting re: the Marlins' possible move to SA today. Apparently Nelson Wolff, Bexar County Judge/King of SA Politics, has instructed Lowry Mays, founder and CEO of San Antonio-based Clear Channel, to do "whatever it takes" to make San Antonio a more attractive media market to MLB and Loria.

By the way, if you're wondering if Judge Wolff is a baseball fan, check out the name of the Missions stadium.

www.ballparkreviews.com/sa/sa.htm

miami, you'll be disappointed to know that people within the Marlins organization have been busy trashing South Florida in the local press here. They are claiming politicians have zero interest in building a stadium, and are suggesting a move will happen. Of course, this could all be a ruse to gain leverage, but that doesn't keep your city's name from being dragged through the mud.

[miamihoya]

Wouldnt be the first time that loria, sampson, and beinfest have trashed miami politicians, and in all fairness its well-deserved. San Antonio has given the fish a deadline till may 15th to decide on whether they are going to relocate there, so I guess we will find out very soon whats going to happen. Personally, I continue to believe that Loria is bluffing. I really think the best thing financially for him and mlb is to keep the fish in miami. Hopefully politicians will get their act together in the next couple of weeks and figure this out. I can't imagine not having the marlins to root for. Even as they are playing terrible ball right now, nothing is more enjoyable than sitting back and enjoying a game.

[miamihoya]

"This whole Marlins moving to San Antonio thing doesn't make any sense to me. For one thing, they keep talking about building a new ballpark for $300 million (with the county kicking in two-thirds of that). Really? The new Busch Stadium cost $345 million ... and that's without a roof, which I'm assuming is going to be a requirement in southwest Texas. And for another -- and here's the real problem -- unless my math is wildly off, the San Antonio market simply isn't large enough to support Major League Baseball. According to Nielsen, San Antonio ranks No. 37 in the U.S ... behind (among others) Sacramento, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; Indianapolis; Charlotte, N.C.; Columbus, Ohio; and Salt Lake City. Perhaps it's simplistic to say the Marlins are simply using Bexar County for leverage, but I think that's exactly what they're doing."

thats from ESPN.com writer Rob Neyer...basically thats the general sentiment in South Florida right now in regard to relocation. Only problem is that if the politicians are catching on to this, they might not be motivated to act on a stadium deal before the May 15th deadline, and Loria will be faced with a tough decision.

[AustinHoya03]

Eh, that's Neyer, who loooves being a black sheep and trashing conventional wisdom. I think his ESPN.com contract requires him to use the phrase "just doesn't make sense to me" in every column. For example, here's an excerpt from a past column on the Marlins where Neyer takes a popular idea and trashes it.

For one thing, the Marlins don't need a retractable roof. For another, after reading the above, you'd think that nothing stands in the way of a beautiful new ballpark except $60 million and those dastardly state legislators. But we simply can't take that $60 million, or any other figures the team throws around, at face value.

In a recent Baseball Prospectus article, Neil deMause reviews a study published by urban planner Judith Grant Long, in which Long attempted to "compile data on the true costs of stadiums and arenas to the public treasury."

Long found that the numbers we see aren't necessarily the numbers the public pays.

To see why, let's take a closer look at the Giants' Pac Bell Park (now SBC Park, and soon to be AT&T Park if the latest merger-related rumors are true). The widely reported $15 million in public funds -- used to relocate a public transit facility that was in the way of the ballpark -- was just the tip of the iceberg, it turns out. Long estimates $33 million in value for the land itself, donated by the local government for the cause at no cost to the Giants; $25 million worth of municipal fire, police and garbage services; and $83 million in forgone property taxes, because despite being privately owned, the stadium nonetheless receives a full property tax exemption.

Privately financed? Pac Bell Park cost $343 million (in 2001 dollars), and the actual public cost was $142 million. In other words, a stadium that supposedly was 95 percent team-financed was actually 59 percent team-financed.

I don't mean to make the Giants look like bad guys. Compared to the Mariners and the Brewers (just two examples), the Giants are the Robin Hood of professional baseball. According to Long's figures, Safeco Field cost the local citizens $553 million ... even though construction costs were "only" $538 million. Bud Selig's Brewers pulled off an even bigger caper, though. Miller Park cost $357 million ... and the public got stuck with a bill for $436 million!

Oh, and by the way, the Brewers didn't need a retractable roof, either. But you can see where the Marlins come by their hubris. Considering the commissioner's personal history of feeding at the public trough, the Marlins would look like saps -- not to mention lousy business partners -- if they didn't make every effort to get their own sweetheart deal.

If I were a Marlins fan, though, I wouldn't be too worried about them moving. Las Vegas isn't anywhere near ready for a major league team, and there's no money in Portland for a shiny new ballpark. The Marlins are locked into Dolphin Stadium next season, and have one-year options through 2010; I'll be shocked if they don't exercise each of those options.

The Marlins -- like every other franchise that wants a new ballpark -- are asking for a huge public subsidy. They're well within their rights to do that, of course. But at the very least, let's all be honest about the size of the subsidy.

I'd be interested to know what Charlotte, NC's media market ranking was when they got the Hornets, and later the Panthers. My guess is it was somewhere around what San Antonio's is now. The NBA and NFL moved teams there because it was an area with a skyrocketing population (and therefore a growing media market). San Antonio's population is currently skyrocketing, and it may just be getting started. Furthermore, I think San Antonio is probably "underrated" as a media market. Nielsen says there are 760,410 TV homes in Saytown, but the San Antonio metro area was estimated at 1,821,000 in 2003. Charlotte's metro population was estimated at 2,170,391 in 2003, and Nielsen says there are 1,020,130 TV homes there. Doing the math, Charlotte's ratio of TV homes to total population is 47 : 100, San Antonio's is 41.75 : 100. San Antonio gets hurt in the media market rankings because of lower per-capita income and larger average family size (I'm guessing -- I don't have figures to back that up).

Loria may well buy the "San Antonio has a small media market" argument and keep the team in Miami, but if he's looking at whether the population of San Antonio and the city of San Antonio can support his team, that's another story.

miami, if you were seriously thinking about moving the team, what city would you pick? If you agree with Neyer and go on media markets alone, say hello to Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, which is the largest media market without a team. Or, here's a thought: could a place like Boston or Dallas-Fort Worth handle an NL team in additon to an AL team?

(Oh yeah, and notice that the Marlins "don't need" a retractable roof stadium, yet it will be "a requirement" in southwest Texas. Note to Rob Neyer: San Antonio is not in "southwest Texas," and the summer nights there are more like Dallas' than Houston's.)

[TigerHoya]

The whole Charlotte thing was designed to take advantage of all the media markets in both SC and NC. The Hornets' expansion package was funded with incentives from both SC and NC governments (the Hornets' practice facility was built across the SC border next to the Charlotte Knights AAA stadium - which may soon be moving downtown). There were even considerations of calling the team "Carolina" instead of "Charlotte" just like the Panthers later.

Not sure about Hornets broadcasts.... but the Panthers blackouts have extended into multiple TV markets when they don't sell out. The Charlotte market even was blacked out the first season at Clemson when all the Charlotte people didn't want to drive 2 hours down 85.

[miamihoya]

I'm not arguing that a owner and mlb should go on media markets alone as far as choosing a city. I think the point being made by many people though is that San Antonio really isn't all that financially attractive as a major league town, and the media markets is just one of those reasons. Moving a team to a new city, in a state that already has two baseball teams, isn't a sure success. Loria's best bet from a financial standpoint is to work it out in Miami, and I believe that is what he is trying to do. I have a hard time believing that he is serious about going through all the trouble and taking the huge risk of moving the team over $30 million dollars. Instead, he is using the threats as a bargaining tool. Might San Antonio be a good sports venue? Maybe. But i don't think Loria really wants to find out.

[AustinHoya03]

miami, forgot to post this earlier, but I was in San Antonio for a wedding shower this weekend and those who were enthusiastic about the potential move a few weeks ago are now saying things don't look so good, and it appears Loria et. al. are not really serious about moving the team. Also heard some complaints that the SA stadium plans were very patched together, but that's typical of the SA city council.

[miamihoya]

Ya i have been hearing that the stadium plan is essentially a joke. I guess they just drafted it up quickly to give the appearance of having something in place, without accounting for costs and what not. At this point i think all fish fans just want to receive some sense of closure on this issue. If they are leaving, well let us know so we can enjoy whatever is left (regardless of the scrap squad on the field). If they are staying, stop playing games and figure out the stadium deal, so you can field the competitive team you are promising.

[TigerHoya]

MLB supposedly still had LV and Norfolk on their list for potential expansion or moves as well as SA.

I guess gambling would still kill LV? Norfolk is where Angelos wanted the Expos to move. LV came up for the Nats if the stadium deal fell through as well as Norfolk and SA.

[miamihoya]

ya it seems like selig and las vegas can't come to an agreement on the issue of gambling, so thats no longer a very serious option. Portland was discussed, but there is no public support for a stadium. As for Norfolk, i'm assuming they realize its not a very attractive market and might be too close to other franchises (i.e. Braves, Nats, O's), not to mention minor league teams.

[TigerHoya]

Presumably the Tides would be gone if MLB came to Norfolk but I agree it's too close to Baltimore for Angelos not to have a coronary over it (unless it means moving the Nats there.)

Does any stadium plan in South Florida have any popularity at all? The last one I heard mentioned was next to the Orange Bowl.

[miamihoya]

Orange Bowl plan basically fell apart over $30 million dollars. David Sampson, the team president, went to the state legislature several times to lobby for a some type of tax refunds or something that would provide for that missing peace, but despite support from governor Jeb Bush, it never came to be. It seems like the most likely scenario now is a possible stadium in the city of Hialeah (Hialeah Marlins...ewww). There has also been talks that Wayne Huizenga could save the team if he allowed them to build on the land adjacent to Dolphin Stadium. Considering his plans to completely revamp the arena and create a shopping center and possible dolphin/super bowl hall of fame outside it, he would stand to benefit from the added tourism that six months of marlins baseball would bring to the area (there is really no other reason to go out there but the stadium), but so far nothing has happened. Just wait and see i guess.

[miamihoya]

Looks like politicians finally got their act together on this. Its finally being voted on and debated in the state legislature. This is by far the most action we've seen on the stadium deal, so hopes are high that it will finally be figured out:

hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FL_XGR_MARLINS_BALLPARK_FLOL-?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=US