SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on May 18, 2024 13:19:49 GMT -5
Barring a miracle, this is headed towards a B- offseason. And my hand is hovering over the panic button Those two things don't seem to align to me. I certainly expected a 3 year rebuild and I certainly didn't expect us to immediately become that good of a team. Some of you took the extreme outliers of turnarounds in the transfer era and made it your "floor" and baseline. Meaningless internet rhetoric and frankly, fundamentally premature as you know, we've got to play the games. This year is a big year. From recruiting momentum to player retention to NIL excitement, we've got to have a promising year. But there's no point in putting expectations on a program based on years of disappointment instead of basic realities.
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 13:28:07 GMT -5
I think folks on here are massively overrating Epps. No doubt he’s a good scorer but he is a HORRIBLE defender. Appreciate that our lack of rim protection last year weighs his defensive stats down, but the eye test didn’t suggest otherwise either. I would say he is an average starter in the Big East… at best. There’s a reason he didn’t transfer this offseason - there wasn’t a market.
So after a year where we finished 321st on defense, what do we do? We spend 500k+ on a 5’11 guard as the crown jewel of our transfer class. Oh - and we also don’t bring in an upgrade in center. FWIW Bart torvik T-rank has us as the 216th worst defense in the country in 2025, which is by far the worst in the Big East. Second worst in the conference is slotted as 61st in the country. We’re not even close to competence on defense.
We’re basically counting on great contributions from our freshmen (a class that I do love) AND that they stay multiple years. It’s a game of Ifs… just a disappointing situation to be in. Considering our program budget we should be in a better spot than counting on a bunch of Ifs….
Hope I’m proven wrong
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 13:32:48 GMT -5
A B- this offseason results in panic because last season was a F. We did the unthinkable and performed worse than an average Ewing coached season.
Expectations are allowed to be high because of the money being put into this program. This isn’t some charity. Return on investment is expected
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on May 18, 2024 13:55:41 GMT -5
I think folks on here are massively overrating Epps. No doubt he’s a good scorer but he is a HORRIBLE defender. Appreciate that our lack of rim protection last year weighs his defensive stats down, but the eye test didn’t suggest otherwise either. I would say he is an average starter in the Big East… at best. There’s a reason he didn’t transfer this offseason - there wasn’t a market. So after a year where we finished 321st on defense, what do we do? We spend 500k+ on a 5’11 guard as the crown jewel of our transfer class. Oh - and we also don’t bring in an upgrade in center. FWIW Bart torvik T-rank has us as the 216th worst defense in the country in 2025, which is by far the worst in the Big East. Second worst in the conference is slotted as 61st in the country. We’re not even close to competence on defense. We’re basically counting on great contributions from our freshmen (a class that I do love) AND that they stay multiple years. It’s a game of Ifs… just a disappointing situation to be in. Considering our program budget we should be in a better spot than counting on a bunch of Ifs…. Hope I’m proven wrong There's plenty of unknowns and risks, but why can't we discuss without changing facts or ignoring whole swaths of information? First, why are are shrinking Malik Mack down? I've seen him listed as 6'1" and even 6'2" basically everywhere. Now, people aren't always honest on height, but that's true of every height in basketball. Also, who cares? The dude has talent. He lit up both Boston College and Indiana last year. He had some inconsistency, and like Epps, he was asked at times to do too much, but he has the talent to play in the Big East. He gives us a second scorer, and he's replacing Jay Heath, who was our second worst defender and who didn't show up at all for half the games. But again, why act like a) he's shorter than he is and b) like being shorter -- the only thing you mention about him other than a made up NIL number you don't know is right -- negates his game? Why minimize a quality pickup with such a weakass argument. As for defense, yes, Epps isn't a great defender, but he's actually decent one on one -- he just needs to keep his head. More importantly, while I am also disappointed we don't have a big rim protector, why are we ignoring the large number of defensive improvements? I think Mack is better than Heath because I suspect he will try. Burks or McKenna or whomever is better than Massoud because Massoud couldn't guard my grandma. Burks may be much better. Peavy was one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball last year. Rowan had his moments of both good and bad last year, but players like Williams and Mulready will have physical edges on him. And while individual defensive stats are awful -- I mean, truly poorly designed stats* -- our defense was much better with Fielder on the floor than Cook last year. Sorber is a freshman, but he may also be an improvement on Cook, who basically rebounded and did little else. And lastly, we had zero depth next year. We're still thin at spots, but we're not going to be playing Cam Bacote in 17 games, I hope. Here's the bad: This roster has a ton of risk built in, because of heavy turnover, lack of experience at center, lack of depth at center and PG, and a heavy reliance on a freshman class and multiple players with smaller minutes last year. Epps, Mack and Peavy are the only guys on the roster with any significant minutes. But we don't need to minimize Mack or completely ignore Peavy. We also don't need to ignore the upside of guys like Burks or Fielder or any one of the freshmen. It's a mixed bag. A team with much more talent but still with major variance and risk. But I don't get why everyone that's negative feels the need to ignore or minimize anything good. It's okay to just be concerned about some things and excited about others.
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 14:03:51 GMT -5
I’m not trying to minimize the good. I’ve said multiple times that I like the freshmen class. I also love the Peavy add.
I disagree with your assessment on Epps and I do think that a Mack + Epps backcourt is a disaster on defense regardless whether Mack is 5’11 or 6’1
It’s just a disappointing situation that Georgetown basketball has to be excited on swings like Burks or Fielder. And I am rooting hard for both
We are biased as fans. But look at any 3rd party source and the reality is we’re still stuck in the basement of the Big East. The state of the program is not healthy - that’s the reality.
Cooley has never been elite but we all wanted competence. Our floor has not been raised
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on May 18, 2024 14:06:21 GMT -5
A B- this offseason results in panic because last season was a F. We did the unthinkable and performed worse than an average Ewing coached season. You are welcome to panic. You just sound ridiculous to think it's a decent to good off-season and panic. It's very clear that when Cooley came in last year, there was no NIL apparatus and he basically took what he could scramble together and get in the transfer season. At the same time, he managed to grab Fielder and a kick ass 2024 class despite very little time (obv. with Fielder it was a pre-existing relationship). To me, this was a reasonably successful off-season. I didn't expect quality transfers when we didn't have a set NIL (or maybe really any), had zero time and were coming off two disastrous seasons. Then, once the seasons stated, the team's inability to come together and improve as a team last year was definitely a negative. Cooley has a long history of the opposite being true, so the question becomes -- was the talent so poor, or is there something wrong on Cooley's side that will repeat? Then we have a pretty good transfer season. Yes, we don't have a big man. It's really one miss from my POV, and it's likely due to a misread of a crazy big man market that a lot of people misread. It's a bad miss, but I'm not going to judge the class until I see (a) what the final class is and (b) how these players perform. If someone like Burks or Williams ends up being pretty good, it changes everything. And then we see if Cooley is really a terrible coach who couldn't elevate a decent roster last year or if it was mostly that he had a thin, untalented team with a number of completely hopeless defenders. Oh, are you a big donor?
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conshyhoya
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Post by conshyhoya on May 18, 2024 14:18:51 GMT -5
I think folks on here are massively overrating Epps. No doubt he’s a good scorer but he is a HORRIBLE defender. Appreciate that our lack of rim protection last year weighs his defensive stats down, but the eye test didn’t suggest otherwise either. I would say he is an average starter in the Big East… at best. There’s a reason he didn’t transfer this offseason - there wasn’t a market. So after a year where we finished 321st on defense, what do we do? We spend 500k+ on a 5’11 guard as the crown jewel of our transfer class. Oh - and we also don’t bring in an upgrade in center. FWIW Bart torvik T-rank has us as the 216th worst defense in the country in 2025, which is by far the worst in the Big East. Second worst in the conference is slotted as 61st in the country. We’re not even close to competence on defense. We’re basically counting on great contributions from our freshmen (a class that I do love) AND that they stay multiple years. It’s a game of Ifs… just a disappointing situation to be in. Considering our program budget we should be in a better spot than counting on a bunch of Ifs…. Hope I’m proven wrong I'm sure you already noticed but you can't buy your way out of a decade of being horrible. There are no shortcuts to the top. We tried to buy Cliff O and from reports were the highest bid until UNC bid and even UNC still didn't buy his services. There are better teams in better situations with the exact same financial resources or better. Even HoF coach Pitino didn't really move the needle much in year 1 at SJU. They had winning records year after year under Anderson and even Mullins last year they had over 20 wins and what did Pitino do even though he had resources? Got them to the NIT again. He started in a way better place and even he couldn't bring it over the top. For the record that was my first choice for us. We certainly did bring in an upgrade to C. He may be a freshman but he is an upgrade. Even year 2 of Fielder who showed promise when he could stay on the court is an upgrade. Sure I wanted the Cliff O's of the class but despite some people making it seem like they are just growing all over and we should have had our pick of the litter, basic econ 101 supply and demand shows otherwise. Hopefully Cooley can grab one more decent 4 or even maybe one of the few remaining 5s to assist in Sorber's growth.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on May 18, 2024 14:33:34 GMT -5
I’m not trying to minimize the good. I’ve said multiple times that I like the freshmen class. I also love the Peavy add. I disagree with your assessment on Epps and I do think that a Mack + Epps backcourt is a disaster on defense regardless whether Mack is 5’11 or 6’1 You absolutely did try to minimize the Mack transfer. Not only did you try to minimize it, you changed a completely verifiable fact to make it look worse. Why did you do that? It's perfectly fine to argue the defensive implications while acknowledging the offensive advantages and without literally making up. The state of the program is not particularly healthy. It is absolutely getting healthier. Why on earth did you think we'd be back to healthy after ONE year, especially when we had almost no talent, no NIL program, and just hired a new coach? If we were, that would have been like a 95th percentile outcome. How are we not significantly healthier? Do we not have more talent? And significantly so, to my eye? Is it not a fairly young team that can develop? There's plenty of work to be done, but somehow I think people simply assumed that fixing this was a fait accompli. Our program was in a terrible place, and in a new world where frankly, we're more disadvantaged than before. Failure is a distinct possibility. Cooley may not be the guy to take us back. But if the expectation was to come in and dominate the transfer market to add to our great freshman class and suddenly be a contender ... that's way too high an expectation for a team literally starting from scratch. In a broader sense, yes, it's disappointing. But you are taking the errors of multiple staffs and the administration and putting it all on a coach with 14 months in role to fix that immediately. Has he fixed it? No. Is it guaranteed to be fixed? No. Is Cooley in the process of improving the team? Yes. I've never considered Cooley elite, but he has won a NATIONAL Coach of the Year award. So let's calm down with the idea that he's incompetent. Again, the freshman class plus the transfer class is a significant increase in talent, if young and not every single thing we wanted. And to that last point, I think our floor has been raised. I'll be with you -- if we are not significantly better next year than this year, then you're right. Cooley isn't good enough. But the idea that this offseason is a reason for a panic button is basically built on the expectation that we make up for the entire last 5 years in one offseason. * As an aside, while I love advanced stats, individual defensive stats are terrible and you are taking Bart Torvik projections waaaay too seriously. If you go to our team right now, go add Onyensu. If you do ... our defense gets .8 PP100 possessions better. That's it. So either Torvik (and every other advanced stat) really struggles to evaluate individual defense, or getting a 7' isn't as valuable as we think. I know what I think, but ...
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 14:46:12 GMT -5
We’re going to have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the entirety of high major basketball - of course adding a competent C won’t fix everything
Also I don’t understand how anyone can say Pitino hasn’t been a bigger success than Cooley. They’re a top 15 in the country next year. And the fanbase is excited.
We’re on a 3 year rebuild to hopefully be AVERAGE in the Big East
We’re going to agree to disagree. Our expectations are different
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on May 18, 2024 15:03:22 GMT -5
We’re going to have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the entirety of high major basketball - of course adding a competent C won’t fix everything What are you basing that on? And my point on Bart Torvik was that you use a lot of stats you have no idea how they work. But you treat them like gospel. There's so much to unpack here. For one, Pitino failed miserably last year by your standards. He started in a much better situation, he's Rick Pitino, and he still didn't make the tourney. He picked up 4 whole games in the Big East. I guess better, but still a failure. Two, I assume you are getting your #15 from Bart Torvik. Something we already know you don't understand how they actually come up with those numbers. Let's let next year play out instead of something even its creator puts under "Funalytics." Three, who the hell cares? How is that relevant to whether this team is improved? On whether the floor has risen? You keep changing the target because you're upset and you want to complain. I'm not sure if it's ROI or year 3 or it's just that you want your Bart Torvik pre-season number higher, but it's really important that's negative, right? To the point that you If you think Pitino has this transfer class without his Vitamin water sugar daddy, good luck, btw. Can we wait to see where we are even in Year Two before we claim we're on pace to HOPEFULLY be average in the Big East in Year 3? Of course they are different. Mine are reasonable.
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conshyhoya
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Post by conshyhoya on May 18, 2024 15:08:06 GMT -5
We’re going to have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the entirety of high major basketball - of course adding a competent C won’t fix everything Also I don’t understand how anyone can say Pitino hasn’t been a bigger success than Cooley. They’re a top 15 in the country next year. And the fanbase is excited. We’re on a 3 year rebuild to hopefully be AVERAGE in the Big East We’re going to agree to disagree. Our expectations are different I never compared Pitino to Cooley success wise as that would be silly. I said Pitino (who is a HoFer in everyone's eyes) couldn't even change the projection of a program in year 1 despite being in a better situation but you expect Cooley to go from one of the worst run programs both on the court and off the court over the past decade to magically turn that around after 14 months. SJU was ranked last year pre-season too with the fanbase excited. How did that work out? The offseason isn't even over and not a single practice has happened so I'll wait to see what actually happens before making a judgement. IMO we are clearly in a better spot than last year already but last year was disappointing so that is a very low bar. He did keep the only piece I thought he needed to this year although I would have tried to keep Rowan and Styles too. I wanted to keep McKenna too but with him only being there a half a year I don't think that was ever in question and not that hard of a job. If next year we are average I will be just as disappointed as you.
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 15:12:04 GMT -5
BartTorvik or KenPom isn't perfect but it drives betting lines and is certainty a better indicator than a bunch of biased perspectives on HoyaTalk. Listen / read to any of the sharper CBB media (e.g. 3 Man Weave) and they'll largely point to us being terrible again next year conshyhoya I don't think it's fair to say "even" Pitino didn't have a home run first year... when we couldve had him. I hope I'm proven wrong!
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bills
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Post by bills on May 18, 2024 15:38:31 GMT -5
In my opinion we have a significantly better 9 man rotation than last year.
Up front we have three solid players to cover the two positions. I see Sorber starting at C and Fielder at PF with Burks coming in for Fielder and Fielder playing half of his time in relief of Sorber. If Cooley can add a Center that can give us a solid 15 minutes I will be a lot happier but what he have is way netter than last year, especially on defense.
in the backcourt I see Epps and Mack starting with Mulready providing scoring and defense off the bench. Epps is probably going to run the point when Mack needs a blow bot Caleb Williams, the 10th man in my roster, could provide an interesting contribution as a point forward.
at the Wing Peavy significantly improves our defense by covering the opponents top scorer. McKenna provides scoring and defense as a backup. Curtis Williams could really give us flexibility and depth if he can prove he is a scoring threat. McKenna could give us a few minutes at the PF if needed and his defense there will be much better than Massoud, and probably his offense as well.
in this starting lineup I see Epps as the #1 option. Mack #2, Fielder #3, and Sorber #4. Mulready and McKenna provide scoring off the bench.
This Is not a top tier BE roster. But it is a BIG step up from last year’s roster in defense, scoring potential, and depth. With only 10 scholarship players we become thin rapidly when any of the starters gets into foul trouble. Injuries to any of the 9 in the primary rotation will be difficult to cover. A major concern I have is enough quality players for effective practice sessions. Getting someone who can give us 15 solid minutes at Center would provide significant improvement in our depth. I would take a PF that can play “small ball “ center or a solid 3* class of 2024 big man to give Sorber a backup for as long as he is here. And I’d take a class of 2024 project at guard who would be willing to redshirt this year to prove himself and provide an outside shooting threat in practice as we work on our 3 pt defense.
there is good potential here but that potential needs to become proven performance. As a number of posters have said, I am expecting this young team to grow over the season and will be very disappointed if they are not much better in February than they are in November.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on May 18, 2024 15:50:08 GMT -5
BartTorvik or KenPom isn't perfect but it drives betting lines and is certainty a better indicator than a bunch of biased perspectives on HoyaTalk. Listen / read to any of the sharper CBB media (e.g. 3 Man Weave) and they'll largely point to us being terrible again next year They don't really drive betting lines, but yes, those systems are based on the same basic transitive point differential systems that drive most gambling house's analytical models. Though the offseason accuracy of a Torvik or a Pomeroy is incredibly low compared to once results come int. What does terrible mean to you? Torvik has us as third worst in the BE (not 2nd, BTW) with 6 wins. That's not a good team, but it's a stark improvement from last year. And I'm sure Bart would tell you that the margin of error here is pretty big. Especially because both models put a ton of weighting on experience and returning minutes. I know Pomeroy's does, and looking at Torvik's tables ... it's clear he does as well. There's absolutely a basis for this, but some of it is definitely pre-NIL/transfer insanity covariance where the best teams keep the best players and so on. Georgetown is very poor in the BE on returning minutes (23.3%) and possessions (30.6%). We're also young -- experience is the lowest in conference. But where Torvik does rank us is the talent metric. I have no idea how he ranks that, frankly, but we're third in the Big East in "Projected Effective Talent." Now, I don't think we have the third best talent in the Big East and I don't know how he gets that so I'm not putting much stock in it. But the basic idea is simple: we're young, inexperienced but talented. I think that's true. For the record, I think any attempt to use stats to predict our team probably pays much less attention to the individuals than the broader trends: we sucked; we had to turn over the whole roster; we are very young. The reason why adding Onyesu to our team does very little in Torvik is that Torvik isn't looking that much at the individuals and definitely isn't looking the starting backcourt's defense -- there's no real player interaction here aside from PT. It's simply that one senior transfer in this kind of model doesn't move the needle for a team that was this bad, that had this much turnover, and that is this young. And again, it's usually right. Six wins is almost certainly a pretty decent risk-adjusted projection that takes into account things like injuries, etc. Bad teams don't jump 8+ wins with rosters that are 2/3rds freshman and sophomores. But this is where expectations come in. You expect a jump that is almost never made, which, whatever, But then you also ignore the foundational improvements being made. We're not going to be great this year. There's a chance we could be a decent bit better than the pundits. But we brought in a decent hunk of talent and should be fundamentally improved.
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 16:18:57 GMT -5
Of course we should be fundamentally improved, we were one of the worst teams in high major basketball. Improving means nothing when it's relative to last year's disaster.
We shouldn't forgive last season - it was terrible. And we certainly shouldn't use last season as an excuse for a poor season this year.
I'm not sure why you're getting into the semantics of BT and KP. Whether its causation or not, they are highly correlated with Vegas lines. If you think your perception of the team is sharper and more efficient than the BT & KP, I advise you back Georgetown heavy next season and you'll be a rich man.
You say I expect a jump that is never made - this is where we disagree. I like to think we're a top 25 program. Somewhat in the realm of Louisville and Michigan. They're already in a completely better position than we are. And we're in year 2. I'll concede both programs are structurally a notch ahead of us but I would like to think we're closer to them as a basketball program than a DePaul or a Butler. Seems like you disagree.
I would not be happy with 6 Big East wins in year 2 of the Cooley experience and I'm honestly sad we have fans who would be.
Different expectations. I'm done arguing. We have the same interest at hand. Go hoyas
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on May 18, 2024 16:30:38 GMT -5
I think folks on here are massively overrating Epps. No doubt he’s a good scorer but he is a HORRIBLE defender. Appreciate that our lack of rim protection last year weighs his defensive stats down, but the eye test didn’t suggest otherwise either. I would say he is an average starter in the Big East… at best. There’s a reason he didn’t transfer this offseason - there wasn’t a market. So after a year where we finished 321st on defense, what do we do? We spend 500k+ on a 5’11 guard as the crown jewel of our transfer class. Oh - and we also don’t bring in an upgrade in center. FWIW Bart torvik T-rank has us as the 216th worst defense in the country in 2025, which is by far the worst in the Big East. Second worst in the conference is slotted as 61st in the country. We’re not even close to competence on defense. We’re basically counting on great contributions from our freshmen (a class that I do love) AND that they stay multiple years. It’s a game of Ifs… just a disappointing situation to be in. Considering our program budget we should be in a better spot than counting on a bunch of Ifs…. Hope I’m proven wrong Anybody who reads HoyaTalk knows I like advanced stats. But focusing on Bart Torvik's off-season projections and using that as a basis for doom and bloom is silly. I promise you: any team that had 2-18 record and defense as bad as ours is going to be ranked low in any projection for next season. On top of that, you have the fact that these projections have no idea how our now mostly-new roster will play together, and it's just unreliable. Not to mention we have four freshman and nobody knows how they will perform. As anybody who has been around recruiting knows, guys in the top 100 flame out and never do anything in college basketball. Others who aren't even on the map end up becoming top players. I am not saying we will be great or even good, I just think if you're looking for a basis for being negative, there are a lot better reasons than Torvik's 2025 projections when many teams haven't even completed their rosters yet. You are correct in one way--last year was disappointing. To me, it was disappointing because while the offense was better than under Ewing, the defense was not, and Cooley should be better than that. But some seem to be stuck in this fictional world where we should have been better, and then continue to judge everything on that basis. I imagine this same conversation will happen in October when the pre-season Big East rankings show us 9th or 10th too. These sort of pre-season projections are wrong all the time. I think we are overdue to have some good luck, and hopefully beat those expectations. - "Considering our program budget we should be in a better spot than counting on a bunch of Ifs…." Well, maybe, but Georgetown basketball has been bad for most of the last decade, and very bad for most of the last 4-5 years. Turning around programs in the depths of horrible that we were in under the last two years of Ewing is not an easy task no batter what. We "should be better," sure, but we haven't been. And most of the people who complain about the budget act as if they're the ones paying the salaries. - "This is unacceptable" - Someone made a comment like this. I am not even sure what to say here. Was last year unacceptable? Sure. I agree. I bet even Ed Cooley would agree that last year's results were unacceptable. Now what? It's not like you can erase last year and Cooley is obviously going to be coach this coming year (and likely several more). Really, the only answer for us as a fan base (if we want to see short term success and by that I mean the next few years) is for Cooley to do better and move away from the horrible season we had last year. If he doesn't, eventually someone else will try. But that's not even remotely imminent. I realize our fan base is a bit shell shocked from the last several years, but I really do think we will be better this coming year, even without a center. How much better is an open question.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on May 18, 2024 16:37:21 GMT -5
Of course we should be fundamentally improved, we were one of the worst teams in high major basketball. Improving means nothing when it's relative to last year's disaster. We shouldn't forgive last season - it was terrible. And we certainly shouldn't use last season as an excuse for a poor season this year. What does "We shouldn't forgive last season" even mean? What are you going to do about it? Scold Ed Cooley? Go have a sit in in Healy Hall until you get your way? I am not saying we should forget it happened. But there's nobody to forgive. The team just needs to do better. They are highly correlated at a specific time. So, on November 10, 2024, the betting line in Georgetown v. Whoever will be similar to the KenPom projection for the same game. But, these projections change with the season. So for example, if you take a pre-season KenPom team ranked 150 to start the season that ends 75 in March, those projections will look a lot different in March. If you have actually followed these stats, you have surely seen this. Teams that are better than expected rise in the rankings, and the ones that are worse, fall. This isn't rocket science. There is a HoyaTalk post I wrote a long time ago that analyzed pre-season polls (AP/Coaches). And if I recall, my findings were something like 33% of the top 25 didn't even make the tournament, and a bunch of teams not on anybody's radar ended up finishing in the top 25. Any pre-season ranking of any type has a lot of weaknesses, especially for college basketball, when players develop and change over time. Some guys never reach expectations, others wildly exceed them. That's why we play the games. I want to be a top 25 program. But, right now, we are not a top 25 program, and frankly, I think that any serious person who thinks we are a top 25 program is deluding themselves. While we spend a fair amount on college basketball, nothing about the way the program was run for most of the last ten years says "Top 25 program." The on court results certainly aren't top 25. We certainly don't have the popularity or pull of a top 25 program. I think it's safe to say none of us would be "happy" with a 6 win season, but the main thing we need to see now is improvement, and a lot of it. We all wanted to see that in Year 1. But we didn't get it. So we need to move on and hope for the best. There's frankly nothing else we can do.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on May 18, 2024 16:54:06 GMT -5
I don't have a ton of time, but I did look up some KenPom pre-season projections and end of season rankings. Obviously, a lot of programs' rankings were pretty close to accurate. But some examples of underperforming rankings by a lot:
- Michigan Pre-Season: 44, Michigan Post-Season: 128 - Memphis Pre-Season: 32, Memphis Post-Season: 76 - Stanford Pre-Season: 43, Stanford Post-Season: 105 - West Virginia Pre-Season: 64, West Virginia Post-Season: 144
And for the flip side (teams that overperformed pre-season rankings):
- St. John's Pre-Season: 60, St. John's Post-Season: 21 - Pittsburgh Pre-Season: 62, Pittsburgh Post-Season: 33 - Dayton Pre-Season: 69, Dayton Post-Season: 32 - Grand Canyon Pre-Season: 83, Grand Canyon Post-Season: 52 - James Madison Pre-Season: 136, James Madison Post-Season: 63 - McNeese St. Pre-Season: 187, McNeese St. Post-Season: 67 - Morehead St. Pre-Season: 212, Morehead St. Post-Season: 116
Point being: Pre-season projections can be useful to get a good sense of who will be good the following year, but there is a lot of variation. (And no, the goal isn't to argue each example. I know McNeese got a lot better likely because of Will Wade, St. John's because of Pitino, etc. But the point is that pre-season projections are often incorrect simply because they cannot take into account a lot of factors that ultimately do matter.)
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Post by pemyfavclass on May 18, 2024 16:56:06 GMT -5
We shouldn't forgive last season = Dont use last season as an excuse for a bad season this year
KP and BT are efficient. Of course reality will diverge from it. But it's an objective, efficient proxy of the quality of our roster. And it's saying we're going to suck. If you disagree with that, you should bet on Georgetown heavy next year our first few games.
Ed Cooley is being paid top 25 money. And Georgetown is a top 25 job.
You can hope all you want but the reality is the state of the program is not great right now. Nothing actionable to do right now but its a thought exercise. A reality check
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conshyhoya
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 817
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Post by conshyhoya on May 18, 2024 17:17:25 GMT -5
We shouldn't forgive last season = Dont use last season as an excuse for a bad season this year KP and BT are efficient. Of course reality will diverge from it. But it's an objective, efficient proxy of the quality of our roster. And it's saying we're going to suck. If you disagree with that, you should bet on Georgetown heavy next year our first few games. Ed Cooley is being paid top 25 money. And Georgetown is a top 25 job. You can hope all you want but the reality is the state of the program is not great right now. Nothing actionable to do right now but its a thought exercise. A reality check Cooley is probably top 5 paid but unfortunately the players themselves haven't seen anything that screams top 25 or even close in their entire lives. It is Cooley's job to change that. We haven't seen it on the court yet but he has made some strides off the court and his HS recruiting has been better than the on court product would suggest it should be. We will see what happens.
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