EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Sept 7, 2019 11:58:51 GMT -5
Only 60 days until the next game. We will have to find better ways to avoid getting at each other’s throats. You're too right about that. I'm gonna delete and dismount from this one... I really wish you wouldn't have done that, it was a good conversation 94, no reason for you to feel otherwise... Will never understand why folks feel the need to for lack of a better word stifle conversation on the board...
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Sept 7, 2019 12:07:55 GMT -5
2) Your last sentence implies "what this team needs" is 3pt shooting. There's no reason, even losing Jessie & Greg, that we're in any worse position than we were last year there. Our returners shot 34.5% (not far off the 35.5% overall) and given regular improvement (players shoot better year over year on avg) and additional incoming threats (Omer, Galen & others), we won't have any less options or be any less proficient there. Also - 3pt efficiency is important and you need to be capable as a team (there's that word), but it doesn't correlate concretely with team success. We were capable last year and should be again. If these guys improve their accuracy from 3 we're simply... a better 3pt shooting team. We're not gonna turn into UVA overnight. There is no proof that players shoot better year over year on avg. Actually the team shot 35.9% from 3, which you might say it's an important difference, but last year the numbers show a difference of 11 points between 6th and 3rd (we were 4th: www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/3-points/sort/threePointFieldGoalPct/group/4 ). Last year, from seniors to sophomores, our players were all over when compared to their careers. Blair had a 2% jump up, and Kaleb and Jessie had huge swings in numbers, Jagan went down, and Jamorko stayed about the same (went down .01%). If Omer can match Jessie's senior year 41.2% with Jessie's usage, Mac can (and will) improve his 27.7% with his usage or less, James can maintain his 39% (hard to repeat) at the same usage, Blair can go from 32.2% (frosh) to 34.4% (soph) to 37% next year, and Jamorko can maintain his career% (frosh 35.7; soph 35.6) or improve it by 1%, with what will be an improved defense, then we're top 3 in the BE. But again, it will be tough for all to have better numbers. It's very optimistic and feasible, but not what actually happens. Virginia was #4 nationally in 3-pt% and #1 in defense. Three-point shooting is certainly one of the keys to success at the highest level. That is the formula that Villanova has used to be successful in the new BE. Wright has kept his team in the top 5 of 3pt% in the BE and with good defense. That is where Pat needs to go. His numbers and recruiting profile show that that's where we're going. He has improved the team in 3pt% and clearly is getting the personnel to improve the defense. For perspective, in JT3's last few years, we were around bottom 3 in 3pt% in the BE, with that defense we want to forget. But this year? New wings, new guards, more bigs, more efficiency from uber-talented returners... I don't really see the point of focusing on those guys. If they make a jump, sweet. If not... next guy up. Agree. As it should be. ON EDIT: Ooof! I finished my research and posted without seeing your last post.
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Post by bicentennial on Sept 7, 2019 12:18:56 GMT -5
I'm bummed nychoya94 deleted his last posts. In one of them he said that if Blair had a 10 point bump in his 3 point shooting percentage he would be a short Hollis. That comment made me look. Last year Blair took 96 threes and made 34.4%. At 44.4% he would be one of the best 3 point shooters ever in the NCAA. I love Macs game but he only shot 27.7% from three and he tried 50 more than Blair. His numbers were much better by conference but the 0/12 to start the season was terrible. I hope he improves by 10% because at 37.7% he would be a good not great 3 point shooter. If Blair, Pickett, Mosely and Ankinjo all increase their percentages slightly and those 4 take more of the 3 point shots, we should be at least as efficient as last year. If Mac improves slightly from his in conference percentages from last year, he should also move into the range of an efficient 3 point threat.
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Post by bicentennial on Sept 7, 2019 12:43:29 GMT -5
One mistake above. Went back and looked, it was 0/16 on three pointers for McClung, it took until his 17th try to make a 3 pointer.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 12:57:23 GMT -5
I'm bummed nychoya94 deleted his last posts. In one of them he said that if Blair had a 10 point bump in his 3 point shooting percentage he would be a short Hollis. That comment made me look. Last year Blair took 96 threes and made 34.4%. At 44.4% he would be one of the best 3 point shooters ever in the NCAA. I love Macs game but he only shot 27.7% from three and he tried 50 more than Blair. His numbers were much better by conference but the 0/12 to start the season was terrible. I hope he improves by 10% because at 37.7% he would be a good not great 3 point shooter. If Blair, Pickett, Mosely and Ankinjo all increase their percentages slightly and those 4 take more of the 3 point shots, we should be at least as efficient as last year. If Mac improves slightly from his in conference percentages from last year, he should also move into the range of an efficient 3 point threat. If Blair shot 44% for a career, THAT would be very good. Like, say, Hollis good! (128-291 = 44%). One or two seasons of that doesn't make you "one of the best 3pt shooters ever", though. This past year alone, 12 guys did that. Marcus shot 46% in '18, and Rodney 41% the year before that. Problem is, like Hollis at GU, Blair hasn't shown much else to his game. Unlike Hollis, he's not 6'8 -- so that compounds the issue. Hollis could get rebounds & shoot it inside a bit simply b/c of his size (he's wasn't tremendously proficient at it, but...) Mac shooting it somewhere closer to 40% is another story altogether. It's the one big hole in his offensive game right now. Decision making, too, but that's not a missing skill so much as something that needs to be tempered. 3pt proficiency takes him to another level, and the kind of legit talent that you need to accumulate to start winning titles. He may not ever get all the way there, but I think he'll be better (the putrid early start you mention I think could be good evidence) going forward.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 13:01:23 GMT -5
You're too right about that. I'm gonna delete and dismount from this one... I really wish you wouldn't have done that, it was a good conversation 94, no reason for you to feel otherwise... Will never understand why folks feel the need to for lack of a better word stifle conversation on the board... It's ok. My basic premise was "why are we talking about Jahvon & Jamorko so much", so...
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Sept 7, 2019 13:10:42 GMT -5
I really wish you wouldn't have done that, it was a good conversation 94, no reason for you to feel otherwise... Will never understand why folks feel the need to for lack of a better word stifle conversation on the board... It's ok. My basic premise was "why are we talking about Jahvon & Jamorko so much", so... A counter that often has been used and seems to fit this time around as well is any topic is good during these down days. Well, except for the Should McClung Be Taken Out of the Starting Lineup discussion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 13:27:51 GMT -5
2) Your last sentence implies "what this team needs" is 3pt shooting. There's no reason, even losing Jessie & Greg, that we're in any worse position than we were last year there. Our returners shot 34.5% (not far off the 35.5% overall) and given regular improvement (players shoot better year over year on avg) and additional incoming threats (Omer, Galen & others), we won't have any less options or be any less proficient there. Also - 3pt efficiency is important and you need to be capable as a team (there's that word), but it doesn't correlate concretely with team success. We were capable last year and should be again. If these guys improve their accuracy from 3 we're simply... a better 3pt shooting team. We're not gonna turn into UVA overnight. There is no proof that players shoot better year over year on avg. Actually the team shot 35.9% from 3, which you might say it's an important difference, but last year the numbers show a difference of 11 points between 6th and 3rd (we were 4th: www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/3-points/sort/threePointFieldGoalPct/group/4 ). Last year, from seniors to sophomores, our players were all over when compared to their careers. Blair had a 2% jump up, and Kaleb and Jessie had huge swings in numbers, Jagan went down, and Jamorko stayed about the same (went down .01%). If Omer can match Jessie's senior year 41.2% with Jessie's usage, Mac can (and will) improve his 27.7% with his usage or less, James can maintain his 39% (hard to repeat) at the same usage, Blair can go from 32.2% (frosh) to 34.4% (soph) to 37% next year, and Jamorko can maintain his career% (frosh 35.7; soph 35.6) or improve it by 1%, with what will be an improved defense, then we're top 3 in the BE. But again, it will be tough for all to have better numbers. It's very optimistic and feasible, but not what actually happens. Virginia was #4 nationally in 3-pt% and #1 in defense. Three-point shooting is certainly one of the keys to success at the highest level. That is the formula that Villanova has used to be successful in the new BE. Wright has kept his team in the top 5 of 3pt% in the BE and with good defense. That is where Pat needs to go. His numbers and recruiting profile show that that's where we're going. He has improved the team in 3pt% and clearly is getting the personnel to improve the defense. For perspective, in JT3's last few years, we were around bottom 3 in 3pt% in the BE, with that defense we want to forget. But this year? New wings, new guards, more bigs, more efficiency from uber-talented returners... I don't really see the point of focusing on those guys. If they make a jump, sweet. If not... next guy up. Agree. As it should be. ON EDIT: Ooof! I finished my research and posted without seeing your last post. No problem. I was getting in the weeds on something I shouldn't have... Will our guys all improve? Certainly not. I'm not saying that. We could certainly drop a bit as a team and that might not be anything more than a statistical blip. Or vice versa. Sometimes it's just the way the ball bounces. The amount of threes taken by a single player in a single year isn't significant enough to be statistically relevant to determining some kind of career-long aptitude. See years from Otto, LJ, Austin... But players do shoot it better year-over-year as they remain in college, on average. They also shoot it less (as a % of total shots - 2s + 3s). Whether or not the Virginia/Villanova model is something to shoot for is debatable. Winning 3 of the last 4 titles is certainly good anecdotal evidence, but UNC won in '17 and they were 148th in the country (35.5%). That was our exact number from last year ( link -- don't know where you're getting the other number from). Also, while Virginia was #8 in the country in 3FG% last year, none of the other top 10 KenPom teams where in the top 30 in that category and three teams were below us. That style is certainly en vogue, and I'm not against it. But it's not the only way to skin a cat, and almost assuredly not how we'll be doing it this year. If Pat does want to emulate that, it's probably time to start bringing in some more dead-eye shooters.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Sept 7, 2019 14:00:48 GMT -5
Let me add something else. The reason why I and others wanted to put Mac in the starting lineup last season instead of Jahvon was because Mac was not only more dynamic and athletic, he was also more skilled with the ball and could do more things effectively like driving to the basket and creating. I don't fault Jahvon for not being at that level nor did I assume he was't working hard. He was just at a disadvantage from everything except long distance shooting and sleight height advantage. He wasn't going to improve his ballhandling abilities to get to Mac or James' level over night or even over an offseason unless he had like a Jerry Rice-type of motivation which most college dudes don't have. So with that said last season was an adjustment for both Jamorko and especially him. These two new kids came in and dominated the ball and took away most of the shots that weren't going to Govan. Jahvon lost about ten minutes of playing time so there was no way he wasn't going to average less points. is he partly to blame for this by not showing enough improvement in different areas? Probably. But again no type of improvement over one offseason was realistically going to catch him up to speed with James and Mac. I can't be mad at Ewing for the decision he made about who started and got more minutes because he made the right call. I'm not mad at Jahvon either for not thriving as much as we hoped under those circumstances.
My sympathy for Jamorko is not as high because Jamorko has more natural ability and physical advantages over Jahvon. But last season must have been a huge adjustment for him too. Jamorko got more looks when Derrickson was around, than he did when James, Mac , Josh, and hell, Trey, started to take away his shooting opportunities. Now as with Jahvon much of the blame falls on Jamorko too for his predicament. But in looking at these games again I do notice numerous times when Jamorko gets in good position to take a shot and is virtually ignored time and time again by James and Mac, even if Jamorko had been shooting well during the game and looks to be in a better position to make the shot than the two frosh guards were. There was too often no rewarding him for his getting a defensive stop and then running the floor to get in his spot on offense. Perhaps the guards felt he wasn't a reliable enough finisher, he had blown some scoring opportunities after all. Anyway I could live with James and Mac having that type of tunnel vision because it was a cost for the needed aggression they provided. But they did leave Jamorko hanging an awful lot. But, hey, that's basketball.
Let's give both guys props for not pouting about lost of minutes or shots to an extent that they did the easy thing and left the program like 90% of the players would have done in their situations. They get much respect from me at least for sticking with the team.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Sept 7, 2019 16:36:06 GMT -5
MCI, you seem like you'd be a great hang for watching games. Thanks for your perspective.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Sept 7, 2019 18:13:56 GMT -5
MCI, you seem like you'd be a great hang for watching games. Thanks for your perspective. I'm terrible when watching games with other people because I either ignore the game or the person I'm with.
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Post by hoyanewyorka on Sept 9, 2019 6:06:18 GMT -5
MCI, you seem like you'd be a great hang for watching games. Thanks for your perspective. I'm terrible when watching games with other people because I either ignore the game or the person I'm with. I hope those other people can spell Pickett's name correctly.
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Post by ewingitrust on Nov 4, 2019 23:09:27 GMT -5
20pts between the two of them would be a great barometer to start with. I believe they will both come ready to play this season. This could be a special bounceback season for the program.
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Hoyas4Ever
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A Wise Man Once Told Me Don't Argue With Fools....
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Post by Hoyas4Ever on Nov 6, 2019 0:30:59 GMT -5
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Post by hoyanewyorka on Nov 7, 2019 16:11:06 GMT -5
I need for Galen to start over Jamorko...enough is enough already
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Nov 7, 2019 16:54:32 GMT -5
You mean the Jamorko who grabbed rebounds at a higher rate than anyone not named Yurtseven? Or the one that went 3-6 from the field? Or the one who had one of the highest +/- ratings on the team?
That inbounds turnover was terrible but overall, Pickett was one of the most effective players out there, with a 111 O-rtg on Ken Pom for the game.
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Post by centercourt400s on Nov 7, 2019 16:57:19 GMT -5
You mean the Jamorko who grabbed rebounds at a higher rate than anyone not named Yurtseven? Or the one that went 3-6 from the field? Or the one who had one of the highest +/- ratings on the team? That inbounds turnover was terrible but overall, Pickett was one of the most effective players out there, with a 111 O-rtg on Ken Pom for the game. Stop trying to bring facts and logic into the discussion. That's not the world we live in today.
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Post by hoyanewyorka on Nov 7, 2019 18:13:53 GMT -5
You mean the Jamorko who grabbed rebounds at a higher rate than anyone not named Yurtseven? Or the one that went 3-6 from the field? Or the one who had one of the highest +/- ratings on the team? That inbounds turnover was terrible but overall, Pickett was one of the most effective players out there, with a 111 O-rtg on Ken Pom for the game. Yes...the 6'8" 4-Star Junior who averaged six ppg in 2018-19 & scored 6 points against Mount St. Mary. That Jamorko.
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Post by BeantownHoya on Nov 7, 2019 18:28:17 GMT -5
You mean the Jamorko who grabbed rebounds at a higher rate than anyone not named Yurtseven? Or the one that went 3-6 from the field? Or the one who had one of the highest +/- ratings on the team? That inbounds turnover was terrible but overall, Pickett was one of the most effective players out there, with a 111 O-rtg on Ken Pom for the game. Yes...the 6'8" 4-Star Junior who averaged six ppg in 2018-19 & scored 6 points against Mount St. Mary. That Jamorko. HA - so instead you want to see the 6'6" former 4 Star recruit that could barely get on the floor at LSU didn't even average 2 points a game shot 18% from the 3 played Junior College last year and went 1 for 5 against St Mary's...you mean that Galen? What an odd argument and to be crystal clear I am thrilled to have Galen on this team...but typically the term enough is enough is saved for repeated examples of something occurring and needing a change not after 1 game where Pickett had a solid night and Galen was at best mediocre. Your timing is bizarre to say the least...
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 7, 2019 18:38:29 GMT -5
I have generally been less bullish on Pickett than others, as he's largely struggled in the last two years, particularly on the offensive end, but I actually thought he did pretty well last night. He was not flashy, but he went 3-5 from two, he didn't force threes, and he rebounded quite well. The turnover was terrible, but things like that happen.
Of course, it's impossible to know whether this is indicative of how he will perform, but it's absurd to say Alexander should start over Jamorko when Alexander had a worse game, by a good bit.
The more interesting argument, in my mind, is whether Mosely should start instead of Pickett once LeBlanc is back in the starting lineup, as I think there are strong arguments for both.
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