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Post by happyhoya1979 on Aug 30, 2019 19:15:26 GMT -5
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Aug 30, 2019 19:21:55 GMT -5
Wow, Chairman Xi is really making a direct challenge to the US with the $75 billion in new tariffs this morning. The timing is such that XI is clearly testing Powell to see whether Powell is a committed Globalist/Chinaist or an American patriot. If Powell caves and proves himself to be in Xi's pocket, China will wait for the next election to close the deal. To use a tennis analogy, the ball has been placed in Jerome Powell's court by China. I honestly hope for the long run survival of an independent FED that Powell does what he needs to do.I honestly hope that for the long run survival of global free trade Powell does what needs to do, Too bad Jerome Powell didn't check into the Blue and Gray Board where this warning was set forth about a week ago. Powell as an unelected figure cannot conduct a policy war with an elected President while carrying a policy position arguably aligned closer to a foreign government than the US. Oh, well. Congress is not going to stand for it. I guess that is what the Senate Banking Committee is for. I love living in a democracy. Someone might actually let Jerome Powell know that he is not God and must be accountable.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 6:10:52 GMT -5
Can someone provide a definition of the word "independence" please? I believe there is some confusion on what that word means....
Fwiw Senator Tillis is commenting on the former fed chief, Bill Dudley, and he also does not represent the entire Senate Banking Committee. He's just one member. Hard to describe this short letter as the Senate Banking Committee "springing into action".
He's responding to Dudley's op-ed for Bloomberg. There's no mention of Powell doing anything inappropriate.
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ksf42001
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 901
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Post by ksf42001 on Aug 31, 2019 13:02:36 GMT -5
There's no mention of Powell doing anything inappropriate. Agreed, what exactly has Powell done that any other Fed Chairman wouldn't have done when faced with low unemployment and good economic growth? It doesn't matter if the President is demanding a 100 basis point drop in the fed funds rate if the situation doesn't warrant it. That's not "being political", it's called doing your job. If you disagree, I'm sure you'll be able to show previous examples of the Fed drastically lowering rates in a time of record low unemployment.
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TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,428
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Post by TC on Aug 31, 2019 14:37:57 GMT -5
Hmmm, when's Thom Tillis up for reelection?
<does a google>oh that makes sense, 2020
Awful lot of people seem like they are crapping their pants about the economy because they didn't get a rate cut....
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Sept 2, 2019 14:42:49 GMT -5
If Powell after all the attention directed at him and all the admonitions given him, decides to deliberately create a recession and prolong a trade war, within 2 years the entire Federal Reserve System will be brought under the aegis of the US Department of the Treasury (not a good thing in my view since a Treasury Secretary has enough to do without having to run the FED). Powell may win his war over the 50 to 75 basis points needed to do away with a Yield curve inversion and stop a recession, but it will be at great cost to the influence of the institution he heads.
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ksf42001
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 901
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Post by ksf42001 on Sept 2, 2019 20:12:27 GMT -5
decides to deliberately create a recession and prolong a trade war So he can't simply be wrong to not lower rates, he has to actively be trying to destroy the US economy? You're comfortable making the claim? Unemployment is extremely low and economic growth is steady, could you please point me to any other time in Fed history that rates were lowered drastically in that economic environment? I'd be shocked if there was even one. In other words, because Powell won't do something the Fed has never done before, you're accusing Powell of manipulating the economy make Trump look bad.
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Sept 3, 2019 7:13:48 GMT -5
I actually hope that his policy actions are directed by hubris and stubbornness. If they are directed, by incompetence of the kind we witnessed last December (a great historical reference point by the way) as Powell renounced further rate hikes) then America is really is in trouble since we have an institution of great consequence that is beyond control by elected officials and can cause major harm through its incompetence.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2019 7:24:57 GMT -5
decides to deliberately create a recession and prolong a trade war Unemployment is extremely low and economic growth is steady, could you please point me to any other time in Fed history that rates were lowered drastically in that economic environment? I would love to hear an answer to this question.
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Sept 3, 2019 8:08:53 GMT -5
We have an inverted yield curve ( with 3% economic growth !), we have unprecedented foreign purchase of our bonds in artificial arbitrage transactions. There is low inflation. It is comically or rather tragically incompetent what Powell is doing.
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Sept 3, 2019 8:11:57 GMT -5
We have an inverted yield curve, we have unprecedented foreign purchase of our bonds in artificial arbitrage transactions. There is low inflation. It is comically or rather tragically incompetent what Powell is doing.
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,198
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Post by hoya9797 on Sept 3, 2019 8:17:08 GMT -5
We have an inverted yield curve ( with 3% economic growth !), we have unprecedented foreign purchase of our bonds in artificial arbitrage transactions. There is low inflation. It is comically or rather tragically incompetent what Powell is doing. We don’t have 3% economic growth.
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Post by badgerhoya on Sept 3, 2019 9:47:48 GMT -5
We have an inverted yield curve ( with 3% economic growth !), we have unprecedented foreign purchase of our bonds in artificial arbitrage transactions. There is low inflation. It is comically or rather tragically incompetent what Powell is doing. We don’t have 3% economic growth. And we also have a corporate debt bubble... not to mention the trade war being led by Col. Klink.
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ksf42001
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 901
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Post by ksf42001 on Sept 3, 2019 10:26:28 GMT -5
We have an inverted yield curve, we have unprecedented foreign purchase of our bonds in artificial arbitrage transactions. There is low inflation. It is comically or rather tragically incompetent what Powell is doing. So you're just going to refuse to answer my previous question? Fine, I'll ask another. The Federal Reserve has two mandates - maximize sustainable employment and stable prices. Which of those mandates are they failing at?
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Post by happyhoya1979 on Sept 3, 2019 12:31:25 GMT -5
Grades address former and latter:
Fall Semester 2018 -F Stock Market decline was wholly avoidable (billions in wealth, employment and growth lost) and C Inflation was substantially bellow Fed's target of 2%. C as to proper value for the dollar. In a performance based world firing would have been in order in 12/2018.
Spring Semester 2019-D for growth underperforming particularly in the manufacturing sector and C inflation substantially below Fed's target of 2%. F as to proper value for the dollar.
Fall Semester 2019 -F for failure to support the yield curve and future growth. D as to inflation which continues to fall below Fed's target. F as to the currency which is now undermining very directly the manufacturing sector as the ISM number today shows.
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EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 14,713
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Post by EtomicB on Sept 3, 2019 12:46:34 GMT -5
Grades address former and latter: Fall Semester 2018 -F Stock Market decline was wholly avoidable (billions in wealth, employment and growth lost) and C Inflation was substantially bellow Fed's target of 2%. C as to proper value for the dollar. In a performance based world firing would have been in order in 12/2018. Spring Semester 2019-D for growth underperforming particularly in the manufacturing sector and C inflation substantially below Fed's target of 2%. F as to proper value for the dollar. Fall Semester 2019 -F for failure to support the yield curve and future growth. D as to inflation which continues to fall below Fed's target. F as to the currency which is now undermining very directly the manufacturing sector as the ISM number today shows. Please post links to what you're referencing in this post while you continue to avoid answering reasonable questions...
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Post by badgerhoya on Sept 3, 2019 13:14:13 GMT -5
Grades address former and latter: Fall Semester 2018 -F Stock Market decline was wholly avoidable (billions in wealth, employment and growth lost) and C Inflation was substantially bellow Fed's target of 2%. C as to proper value for the dollar. In a performance based world firing would have been in order in 12/2018. Spring Semester 2019-D for growth underperforming particularly in the manufacturing sector and C inflation substantially below Fed's target of 2%. F as to proper value for the dollar. Fall Semester 2019 -F for failure to support the yield curve and future growth. D as to inflation which continues to fall below Fed's target. F as to the currency which is now undermining very directly the manufacturing sector as the ISM number today shows. Huh. Dec 2018 Stock market correction - For one, something like this is overdue when the valuation ratios get all out of whack. However, #1 cause seems to be trade uncertainty, followed by the galactically stupid government shutdown. Spring 2019 Manufacturing - Seems to me that when you raise prices on steel and aluminum (among other things), those prices are either absorbed by the manufacturers under reduced margin, or borne by consumers (who may not want to pay the higher prices). Fall 2019 - Again, trade uncertainty. It's almost like when you put a "stable genius" who "speaks in pictures" and has little to no interest in the detail in charge of a $13B economy, businesses aren't quite sure what to make of his moves and plan for the future.
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ksf42001
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 901
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Post by ksf42001 on Sept 3, 2019 13:40:51 GMT -5
It's almost like when you put a "stable genius" who "speaks in pictures" and has little to no interest in the detail in charge of a $13B economy, businesses aren't quite sure what to make of his moves and plan for the future. Put more politely - It's not Powell's fault that the ISM index fell below 50. If I were a manufacturer, I'd be cautious, since who knows what the tariff environment to export my product in the next 3-6 months.
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TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,428
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Post by TC on Sept 3, 2019 13:40:57 GMT -5
Fall Semester 2018 -F Stock Market decline was wholly avoidable (billions in wealth, employment and growth lost) The Fed isn't there to keep stock prices high. I get that's what MAGAheads want to abuse it for because it helps them politically and they are a corrupt group of fascists, but that's not the purpose of the Fed.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Sept 3, 2019 19:23:36 GMT -5
Fall Semester 2018 -F Stock Market decline was wholly avoidable (billions in wealth, employment and growth lost) The Fed isn't there to keep stock prices high. I wish others (politicians, voters, the media, anyone) would recognize this entirely unimpeachable truth. Corporate valuations and investor profit have no empirical positive relationship to employment. And an overheated market more often leads to inflation than the inverse.
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