lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 604
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 1, 2019 17:56:57 GMT -5
www.bracketmatrix.comWe actually are in on one bracket! It’s something at least... I really am trying to set realistic expectations (mostly to not let myself feel disappointed come March) but it’s nice to even daydream still in February. To me the magic number is 8 more wins including the BE tourney. 22-11 with a soft bubble could be good enough. Our OOC schedule is weird in retrospect. South Florida and Liberty are suddenly good wins. Illinois, despite being 6-15 is a computer darling because of their SOS (last I looked they are ahead of us in most computer rankings). LMU continues to lose steam, and that loss is looking worse. SMU isn’t great but acceptable. UMES is really the only god awful team on the schedule. But not only does their ranking hurt us, but the fact we only beat them by 15. Same with AR Little Rock, Campbell, CCSU, App St. etc. Because we didn’t blow these teams out, the computer rankings (KenPom is agnostic to W/L) are being dragged down. While the schedule wasn’t great, it certainly could have been worse and more of these teams could have been in Q4 territory. But the fact we didn’t beat these Q4 teams by more is equally hurting us IMO. Scoring margin in the NET rankings are capped at 10. Any win by more means nothing (also why the LeBlanc dunk against St Johns wasn’t totally meaningless haha).
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LCPolo18
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,406
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 1, 2019 18:20:05 GMT -5
www.bracketmatrix.comWe actually are in on one bracket! It’s something at least... I really am trying to set realistic expectations (mostly to not let myself feel disappointed come March) but it’s nice to even daydream still in February. To me the magic number is 8 more wins including the BE tourney. 22-11 with a soft bubble could be good enough. Our OOC schedule is weird in retrospect. South Florida and Liberty are suddenly good wins. Illinois, despite being 6-15 is a computer darling because of their SOS (last I looked they are ahead of us in most computer rankings). LMU continues to lose steam, and that loss is looking worse. SMU isn’t great but acceptable. UMES is really the only god awful team on the schedule. But not only does their ranking hurt us, but the fact we only beat them by 15. Same with AR Little Rock, Campbell, CCSU, App St. etc. Because we didn’t blow these teams out, the computer rankings (KenPom is agnostic to W/L) are being dragged down. While the schedule wasn’t great, it certainly could have been worse and more of these teams could have been in Q4 territory. But the fact we didn’t beat these Q4 teams by more is equally hurting us IMO. Scoring margin in the NET rankings are capped at 10. Any win by more means nothing (also why the LeBlanc dunk against St Johns wasn’t totally meaningless haha). That’s only partially true. Yes the scoring margin factor in the NET rankings is capped at 10 (and capped at 1 for OT games which kills the Hoyas). However there is no cap on the efficiency factor, and how many points you score compared to how many points you allow are included in that calculation. But anyways, the fact that the Hoyas only beat a couple teams by 10+ does not help their NET rankings.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,322
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 1, 2019 18:21:26 GMT -5
www.bracketmatrix.comWe actually are in on one bracket! It’s something at least... I really am trying to set realistic expectations (mostly to not let myself feel disappointed come March) but it’s nice to even daydream still in February. To me the magic number is 8 more wins including the BE tourney. 22-11 with a soft bubble could be good enough. Our OOC schedule is weird in retrospect. South Florida and Liberty are suddenly good wins. Illinois, despite being 6-15 is a computer darling because of their SOS (last I looked they are ahead of us in most computer rankings). LMU continues to lose steam, and that loss is looking worse. SMU isn’t great but acceptable. UMES is really the only god awful team on the schedule. But not only does their ranking hurt us, but the fact we only beat them by 15. Same with AR Little Rock, Campbell, CCSU, App St. etc. Because we didn’t blow these teams out, the computer rankings (KenPom is agnostic to W/L) are being dragged down. While the schedule wasn’t great, it certainly could have been worse and more of these teams could have been in Q4 territory. But the fact we didn’t beat these Q4 teams by more is equally hurting us IMO. Scoring margin in the NET rankings are capped at 10. Any win by more means nothing (also why the LeBlanc dunk against St Johns wasn’t totally meaningless haha). Scoring margin you are right but all other efficiency metrics matter. When you only score 68 on the 353rd ranked team that hurts those numbers.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 604
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 1, 2019 18:26:42 GMT -5
Scoring margin in the NET rankings are capped at 10. Any win by more means nothing (also why the LeBlanc dunk against St Johns wasn’t totally meaningless haha). Scoring margin you are right but all other efficiency metrics matter. When you only score 68 on the 353rd ranked team that hurts those numbers. That’s a good point. If we make a run, will be interesting to see how they view us as a whole when it would very obvious the team vastly improved.
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hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Suspended
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 1, 2019 20:46:18 GMT -5
He must use this as a forward thinking model and not current as of today. The NET hasn't updated but I figured we will be somewhere in the 70's which has us closer to the first 40 than the first 4 out at the moment. The front page, yes, THAT front page, updates the NET daily. - www.hoyasaxa.com/sports/bball.htmI don't think the NET rankings are current though. It says on the official NCAA page that it's games through Jan. 30. The front page says through Jan. 31
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 2, 2019 7:27:56 GMT -5
With 10 regular season games remaining plus the BET, the final outcome possibilities are nearly endless and, in pondering them, crippling to a mediocre brain like mine.
I’m focused on Nova tomorrow. A hallmark road win on Sunday, 5-4 and solo third place in BE, and we’ll be on all the pundits’ working lists of potential NCAA tournament teams. No doubt.
Git’er duhn.
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Post by bicentennial on Feb 2, 2019 8:23:43 GMT -5
Stats improve with winning and worsen with losing. One win at a time.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2019 9:01:14 GMT -5
Unless things change soon, the aren't any opportunities for marquee wins other than these Nova games & Marquette, so... let's do this Hoyas!
Win now and play ahead of the tourney cut line for the rest of the year.
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LCPolo18
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,406
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 2, 2019 10:18:08 GMT -5
I don't think the NET rankings are current though. It says on the official NCAA page that it's games through Jan. 30. The front page says through Jan. 31 Georgetown is up to NET 82 for games through Feb 1.
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hoyas315
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,089
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Post by hoyas315 on Feb 2, 2019 15:19:28 GMT -5
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 2, 2019 15:24:12 GMT -5
Seton Hall loses to Butler giving them 6 losses. If DePaul holds this 10-point halftime lead over Providence, the Friars also get to 6 conference losses.
Couldn’t ask for a better conference standings set-up heading into Nova tomorrow. A win pushes us ahead 2 games over most teams. And a HOYA loss is mitigated by the results.
And I suppose we root for Xavier over Creighton tomorrow, giving the Jays their 6th loss.
Let’s take advantage!!!
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Feb 2, 2019 15:31:27 GMT -5
Unless things change soon, the aren't any opportunities for marquee wins other than these Nova games & Marquette, so... let's do this Hoyas! Win now and play ahead of the tourney cut line for the rest of the year. At Seton Hall, at Providence, and at Creighton would all be quadrant 1 wins today. There are more opportunities, it's not limited to 3 games. Also, efficiency needs to rise in those games. This game would put Georgetown in the tournament though if it's a win, as of right now.
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hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 2, 2019 15:56:56 GMT -5
I don't think the NET rankings are current though. It says on the official NCAA page that it's games through Jan. 30. The front page says through Jan. 31 Georgetown is up to NET 82 for games through Feb 1. I thought we jump into the 70's but guessing at NET is a futile excercise at this point. These prognosticators that have us in first 4/8 out must think NET is not going to play into the selection process as much we are being led to believe.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2019 17:06:25 GMT -5
Unless things change soon, the aren't any opportunities for marquee wins other than these Nova games & Marquette, so... let's do this Hoyas! Win now and play ahead of the tourney cut line for the rest of the year. At Seton Hall, at Providence, and at Creighton would all be quadrant 1 wins today. There are more opportunities, it's not limited to 3 games. Also, efficiency needs to rise in those games. This game would put Georgetown in the tournament though if it's a win, as of right now. Those teams are 10-16 in conference, and it's likely that 2 of them won't even be .500 by the end of the year. Computer rankings aside, none of them are marquee wins. No one's going to be crowing about (and pundits won't be highlighting) a win over an 8-10 team - even if it helps us, numbers-wise.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Feb 2, 2019 17:28:28 GMT -5
At Seton Hall, at Providence, and at Creighton would all be quadrant 1 wins today. There are more opportunities, it's not limited to 3 games. Also, efficiency needs to rise in those games. This game would put Georgetown in the tournament though if it's a win, as of right now. Those teams are 10-16 in conference, and it's likely that 2 of them won't even be .500 by the end of the year. Computer rankings aside, none of them are marquee wins. No one's going to be crowing about (and pundits won't be highlighting) a win over an 8-10 team - even if it helps us, numbers-wise. The thing with categories like “Group 1,” etc., is that people talk about them in the aggregate (i.e., they have 5 top-100 wins) more than they say 2 of those were top-75, but x and y didn’t have a winning conference record.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 2, 2019 17:43:29 GMT -5
Small note for the front page. Appreciate the NET updates and the green, yellow, red but we should probably define those.
Highest Big Six RPI left out in the 68-team era: 49
Lowest RPI to make it: 67
So 1-48 should probably be green, 49-67 yellow, and 68+ red. Just noticed it went abruptly from green to red and looked up what the range would be. Not exactly shocking the upper bound is almost exactly 68.
Corrected--thanks.
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mfk24
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,759
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Post by mfk24 on Feb 2, 2019 18:21:56 GMT -5
Bubble watching other teams, Texas had a chance at a top 25 win but lost at Iowa St. today and Nebraska is on a 5 game losing streak.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Feb 2, 2019 22:01:24 GMT -5
Right now we're in third place in the Big East. If we finish the season in third place and get a BE tournament win, we'll go to March Madness -- even if we get swept by Nova and Marquette. There's no way the third place team in the Big East isn't making March Madness. Matt Mlodzinski's bracket has us currently as an 11 seed: ncaamreview.com/2019/01/28/matty-brackets-1-28-2019/
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,466
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 5, 2019 21:22:05 GMT -5
That Illinois win tryna rally.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 30,466
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 6, 2019 3:00:59 GMT -5
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