thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Jan 31, 2019 18:44:37 GMT -5
We are way on the outside right now so this discussion, while fun, is premature. Let’s get 2-3 more wins under our belt and then see where things shake out. Separate point - do the NET rankings seem more volatile to people than RPI? I feel like teams jump 10s of spots regularly. Why is that? Or am I wrong? There is definitely a major emphasis in the algorithm on quality wins, especially on the road. So while beating Xavier at home will only slightly improve Gtowns NET, a win on Sunday could mean a nearly 30 spot jump.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 1, 2019 0:04:27 GMT -5
You don't need to go game by game. The difference in conference ratings is huge - that's why those Pac 12 and Big Ten teams didn't get in. And it's why any 11 win Big East team will get in this season. Pretty simple, really. More (though it's not needed): A scenario that gets us to 11 conference wins likely includes a marquee win over a top 3/4 level NCAA tourney seed. And trying to say that making the tournament this season wouldn't put them ahead of schedule borders on trollish. It's simply untrue that "lots of fans" thought we'd make the tournament this season. Patently false. It’s kind of hilarious that you and hoyasaxa2003 are saying the same thing but you insist on arguing with every post he makes. Guru: If the Hoyas go 11-7, it will likely include a Villanova/Marquette win and the Hoyas will be in. Hoyasaxa2003: If the Hoyas go 11-7, but they don’t get a win over Villanova/Marquette, the Hoyas won’t be in. Maybe give your criticism of him a rest for a couple weeks? I'll take it under advisement - not sure why it matters to you, however.
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FrazierFanatic
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 1, 2019 0:25:56 GMT -5
Well, one step closer.
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Post by treystyles42 on Feb 1, 2019 1:06:48 GMT -5
I think we have a real shot at the tournament. The only thing I don't like about our tram is the pre conference schedule. In order to get back to prominence is to schedule teams from the acc, big ten, etc. Our schedule be to soft
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Post by HoyaRejuveNation85 on Feb 1, 2019 10:05:47 GMT -5
Huge games ahead of us. Hard challenges, but if we rise to the occasion, things will take care of themselves. Let's lay off the pre conference schedule as a hindrance. Maybe it helped us figure some things out, let some of our new (and best) players acclimate to college and college ball. Maybe, Coach Ewing, who is also showing that he's getting better and learning to be a good college coach on the job, knows what he's doing. As for Ewing's coaching, I like this snippet from Mac's HS coach about how he's treating the players. That's some endorsement. We need to get that message out. “I told Mac before he left for D.C. that he would have some areas where he would struggle early on,” Vermillion said. “He has had some struggles, but he is coachable and wants to do the right things on the court for the Hoyas. He has told me that Coach [Patrick] Ewing is super and that he wants all the players to be great and that he is good to them, teaching them and allowing them the space to learn from mistakes and move on." www.heraldcourier.com/sports/gate-city-coach-vermillion-never-doubted-mcclung-s-success/article_a096a16a-24f3-11e9-b9fc-e329d5f3deaf.html
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 1, 2019 10:38:50 GMT -5
We're still way on the outside looking in, but the better play is not just in our heads.
Sagarin's ratings have us at #73 overall, but their "Recent" measure, one of three that go into overall rankings, has us playing at #49. And we're finally playing well enough that the Pomeroy rating has us pegged to go 8-10 in conference (after being in the 6-12 or 7-11 range for most of the season).
If we can take 2 of the next 3 (a tall order, especially with Reeves being eased back in for Providence), we might be looking at the bubble. But not yet.
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Post by centercourt400s on Feb 1, 2019 10:41:52 GMT -5
Huge games ahead of us. Hard challenges, but if we rise to the occasion, things will take care of themselves. Let's lay off the pre conference schedule as a hindrance. Maybe it helped us figure some things out, let some of our new (and best) players acclimate to college and college ball. Maybe, Coach Ewing, who is also showing that he's getting better and learning to be a good college coach on the job, knows what he's doing. As for Ewing's coaching, I like this snippet from Mac's HS coach about how he's treating the players. That's some endorsement. We need to get that message out. “I told Mac before he left for D.C. that he would have some areas where he would struggle early on,” Vermillion said. “He has had some struggles, but he is coachable and wants to do the right things on the court for the Hoyas. He has told me that Coach [Patrick] Ewing is super and that he wants all the players to be great and that he is good to them, teaching them and allowing them the space to learn from mistakes and move on." www.heraldcourier.com/sports/gate-city-coach-vermillion-never-doubted-mcclung-s-success/article_a096a16a-24f3-11e9-b9fc-e329d5f3deaf.htmlAgreed. Instead of bemoaning a "soft" OOC schedule I think it makes more sense to view it as a valuable step to where the team is now. If you'll recall, the early season Hoyas were a mess in some important aspects: turnovers, end of game execution, etc. I think they have improved in many ways because of the way the schedule was created, not in spite of it. And arguably, we are only speculating about tournament bids now because of the structure of the OOC... if it had been harder, given the early season struggles in execution, there would quite possibly have been a few more losses and a bid would have been unthinkable as a result.
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Feb 1, 2019 12:27:43 GMT -5
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 1, 2019 12:38:47 GMT -5
Is this really happening? Feels like it's been so long. I'm super excited.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 1, 2019 12:48:20 GMT -5
Huge games ahead of us. Hard challenges, but if we rise to the occasion, things will take care of themselves. Let's lay off the pre conference schedule as a hindrance. Maybe it helped us figure some things out, let some of our new (and best) players acclimate to college and college ball. Maybe, Coach Ewing, who is also showing that he's getting better and learning to be a good college coach on the job, knows what he's doing. As for Ewing's coaching, I like this snippet from Mac's HS coach about how he's treating the players. That's some endorsement. We need to get that message out. “I told Mac before he left for D.C. that he would have some areas where he would struggle early on,” Vermillion said. “He has had some struggles, but he is coachable and wants to do the right things on the court for the Hoyas. He has told me that Coach [Patrick] Ewing is super and that he wants all the players to be great and that he is good to them, teaching them and allowing them the space to learn from mistakes and move on." www.heraldcourier.com/sports/gate-city-coach-vermillion-never-doubted-mcclung-s-success/article_a096a16a-24f3-11e9-b9fc-e329d5f3deaf.htmlAgreed. Instead of bemoaning a "soft" OOC schedule I think it makes more sense to view it as a valuable step to where the team is now. If you'll recall, the early season Hoyas were a mess in some important aspects: turnovers, end of game execution, etc. I think they have improved in many ways because of the way the schedule was created, not in spite of it. And arguably, we are only speculating about tournament bids now because of the structure of the OOC... if it had been harder, given the early season struggles in execution, there would quite possibly have been a few more losses and a bid would have been unthinkable as a result. Yeah for sure. Before the season I had hoped the non-conference schedule would be a little more challenging. But given the results, the schedule was probably exactly right for this team. So at this point it’s not a question of whether the non-conference schedule was hard enough, it’s whether the team performed well enough. Additionally, it certainly seems the NET rankings favor winning over SOS (though the lack of games against Q1 teams is tough). Just look at St. John’s profile. Their non-conference schedule was similar to Georgetown’s, but because they went 12-0 their ranking is about 40 spots better.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 1, 2019 12:56:54 GMT -5
He must use this as a forward thinking model and not current as of today. The NET hasn't updated but I figured we will be somewhere in the 70's which has us closer to the first 40 than the first 4 out at the moment.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 1, 2019 13:09:58 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do but this is certainly nice to see and backs up my original point in creating this thread: Just being somewhat involved in the discussion is a step in the right direction and good for the program right now.
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Post by Admin on Feb 1, 2019 13:14:59 GMT -5
He must use this as a forward thinking model and not current as of today. The NET hasn't updated but I figured we will be somewhere in the 70's which has us closer to the first 40 than the first 4 out at the moment. The front page, yes, THAT front page, updates the NET daily. - www.hoyasaxa.com/sports/bball.htm
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Feb 1, 2019 13:16:42 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do but this is certainly nice to see and backs up my original point in creating this thread: Just being somewhat involved in the discussion is a step in the right direction and good for the program right now. If the prospect doesn't motivate our guys (least the ones who aren't self-driven to the extreme), they get what they deserve. Not to mention which, JG says a major motivation in coming back was to Dance. Well then, get on it! Keep winning
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 1, 2019 13:19:57 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do but this is certainly nice to see and backs up my original point in creating this thread: Just being somewhat involved in the discussion is a step in the right direction and good for the program right now. If the prospect doesn't motivate our guys (least the ones who aren't self-driven to the extreme), they get what they deserve. Not to mention which, JG says a major motivation in coming back was to Dance. Well then, get on it! Keep winning An NIT bid would be progress for the program overall but I really want a bid this year so Jessie gets his chance.
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hoya95
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Post by hoya95 on Feb 1, 2019 13:49:45 GMT -5
I'm just looking for tangible improvement this year. We've got 4 of the next 6 on the road with two of those against Villanova. Going 3-3 would be a big step in the right direction. It wouldn't get us into a serious Tournament discussion, but it would be a big deal for the future. Grinding out the tough parts of the schedule always matters.
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hoyalaw33
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Post by hoyalaw33 on Feb 1, 2019 13:55:39 GMT -5
Going 4-2 in the next 6 give us a chanc at the dance. Beating Nova would do wonders to our tournament resume.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Feb 1, 2019 14:06:06 GMT -5
I'm just looking for tangible improvement this year. We've got 4 of the next 6 on the road with two of those against Villanova. Going 3-3 would be a big step in the right direction. It wouldn't get us into a serious Tournament discussion, but it would be a big deal for the future. Grinding out the tough parts of the schedule always matters. Shoot...the stats say we play better on the road and against better competition.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 1, 2019 14:46:05 GMT -5
I'm just looking for tangible improvement this year. We've got 4 of the next 6 on the road with two of those against Villanova. Going 3-3 would be a big step in the right direction. It wouldn't get us into a serious Tournament discussion, but it would be a big deal for the future. Grinding out the tough parts of the schedule always matters. Shoot...the stats say we play better on the road and against better competition. It's a tradition: we play up or down to the competition.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 1, 2019 17:05:31 GMT -5
www.bracketmatrix.comWe actually are in on one bracket! It’s something at least... I really am trying to set realistic expectations (mostly to not let myself feel disappointed come March) but it’s nice to even daydream still in February. To me the magic number is 8 more wins including the BE tourney. 22-11 with a soft bubble could be good enough. Our OOC schedule is weird in retrospect. South Florida and Liberty are suddenly good wins. Illinois, despite being 6-15 is a computer darling because of their SOS (last I looked they are ahead of us in most computer rankings). LMU continues to lose steam, and that loss is looking worse. SMU isn’t great but acceptable. UMES is really the only god awful team on the schedule. But not only does their ranking hurt us, but the fact we only beat them by 15. Same with AR Little Rock, Campbell, CCSU, App St. etc. Because we didn’t blow these teams out, the computer rankings (KenPom is agnostic to W/L) are being dragged down. While the schedule wasn’t great, it certainly could have been worse and more of these teams could have been in Q4 territory. But the fact we didn’t beat these Q4 teams by more is equally hurting us IMO.
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