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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 7, 2017 16:33:12 GMT -5
A few hard numbers. I am using 9-9 records as a baseline. In each instance, I assume the team wins the 9 "easiest" games, as determined by RPI Forecast's odds. The other caveat is this does not account for the BET games, which can also help.
If St. John's loses to Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference, they end up 18-12, RPI 26, SoS 7. That is easily a tournament team, and that doesn't account for any BET success. If St. John's beats Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games (as currently noted by RPI Forecast), they end up 19-11, RPI 22, SoS 7. That is also easily a tournament team.
If Butler loses to Purdue, but wins out their OOC, and then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games, they end up 19-12, RPI 43, SoS 28. While not as much of a slam dunk, this is likely a tournament team anyway, especially if they get one or two good Big East wins. If they happen to beat Purdue, they are a sure thing at 9-9: 20-11, RPI 36, SoS 28.
Marquette will have a tougher road. If they lose to Wisconsin but otherwise win their OOC, and go 9-9, they are 17-12, 57 RPI, and SoS 23. My hunch is this team would make it, and if not, they'd be close to the bubble. While their PRI is on the lower end, their schedule is pretty strong. If they win against Wisconsin on Friday, they would be 18-12, RPI 45, and SoS of 20 in this scenario - more comfortably in the tournament.
Lastly, Providence. If they win out their OOC (including beating Houston), their record would be 20-11, RPI 33, SoS of 25. That's a tournament team. If they lose to Houston, their record would be 19-12, RPI would be 41, with a SoS of 41. Again, I think both of those scenarios are tournament teams.
In summary, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Marquette, have a likely to good shot at the tournament if they merely go 9-9. Thus, getting 5 teams in (or even 6) is very feasible.
This also highlights, once again, the importance of scheduling. This is why it's crucial going forward to play a good OOC. By having good schedules, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and Marquette all have real tournament chances without really having to even have an outstanding conference record.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 7, 2017 17:24:49 GMT -5
nothing really, but they just have the one loss and don't have any close calls like Providence who could easily have 5 losses already. They barely escaped not just brown, but Belmont and Rider as well. St. Johns has 3 ok wins in UCF, Nebraska, and Oregon St. Providence's win over Washington suddenly looks halfway decent, but overall St. John's wins are better. We'll know more about them tomorrow when they face Arizona St. I watched both the OSU & UCF games and both were 1 possession games with a few minutes to play, those are close calls in my book.. I'm not trying to make it seem like PC is a 2nd weekend team but I like the team that has 3 players who've been to the tourney multiple times over this St. John's.. Personally, I hope both make it.. I meant close calls against midmajor teams. UCF is pretty decent having knocked off alabama no shame in that being a close game. Providence's best win is against Kenpom #95 BC, their only top 100 win. They have close wins against #s 123, 180, and 265. THey also have a decent win over #123 Washington. St. John's best win is against Kenpom # 72 UCF and have wins against # 89 Nebraska and a close win against # 108 Oregon St. Their loss to Missouri is arguably worse than Providence's two losses, but they haven't really played down to the level of teams the way providence has. I'm not saying St. John's is a slam dunk over PC, but PC just seems to be going the wrong way with two close wins over bad teams surrounding that loss to Rhode Island the first loss to the Rams in 8 years.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 7, 2017 17:41:26 GMT -5
A few hard numbers. I am using 9-9 records as a baseline. In each instance, I assume the team wins the 9 "easiest" games, as determined by RPI Forecast's odds. The other caveat is this does not account for the BET games, which can also help. If St. John's loses to Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference, they end up 18-12, RPI 26, SoS 7. That is easily a tournament team, and that doesn't account for any BET success. If St. John's beats Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games (as currently noted by RPI Forecast), they end up 19-11, RPI 22, SoS 7. That is also easily a tournament team. If Butler loses to Purdue, but wins out their OOC, and then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games, they end up 19-12, RPI 43, SoS 28. While not as much of a slam dunk, this is likely a tournament team anyway, especially if they get one or two good Big East wins. If they happen to beat Purdue, they are a sure thing at 9-9: 20-11, RPI 36, SoS 28. Marquette will have a tougher road. If they lose to Wisconsin but otherwise win their OOC, and go 9-9, they are 17-12, 57 RPI, and SoS 23. My hunch is this team would make it, and if not, they'd be close to the bubble. While their PRI is on the lower end, their schedule is pretty strong. If they win against Wisconsin on Friday, they would be 18-12, RPI 45, and SoS of 20 in this scenario - more comfortably in the tournament. Lastly, Providence. If they win out their OOC (including beating Houston), their record would be 20-11, RPI 33, SoS of 25. That's a tournament team. If they lose to Houston, their record would be 19-12, RPI would be 41, with a SoS of 41. Again, I think both of those scenarios are tournament teams. In summary, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Marquette, have a likely to good shot at the tournament if they merely go 9-9. Thus, getting 5 teams in (or even 6) is very feasible. This also highlights, once again, the importance of scheduling. This is why it's crucial going forward to play a good OOC. By having good schedules, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and Marquette all have real tournament chances without really having to even have an outstanding conference record. Thanks for the Breakdown. I see the conference like this right now: Villanova Xavier Seton Hall ----------- Creighton ------------- St. John's Providence Butler Marquette --------------- Georgetown -------------- DePaul I think we can jump into the group of 4 above us if we beat Cuse. I think the BE is very top heavy and could look something like this: 16-2 15-3 14-4 10-8 9-9 8-10 6-12 6-12 5-13 3-15 Pretty much every year since the league went to 10 teams the top 6 teams have been .500 of better only last year did that extend to 7.
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guru
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Post by guru on Dec 7, 2017 19:00:27 GMT -5
A few hard numbers. I am using 9-9 records as a baseline. In each instance, I assume the team wins the 9 "easiest" games, as determined by RPI Forecast's odds. The other caveat is this does not account for the BET games, which can also help. If St. John's loses to Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference, they end up 18-12, RPI 26, SoS 7. That is easily a tournament team, and that doesn't account for any BET success. If St. John's beats Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games (as currently noted by RPI Forecast), they end up 19-11, RPI 22, SoS 7. That is also easily a tournament team. If Butler loses to Purdue, but wins out their OOC, and then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games, they end up 19-12, RPI 43, SoS 28. While not as much of a slam dunk, this is likely a tournament team anyway, especially if they get one or two good Big East wins. If they happen to beat Purdue, they are a sure thing at 9-9: 20-11, RPI 36, SoS 28. Marquette will have a tougher road. If they lose to Wisconsin but otherwise win their OOC, and go 9-9, they are 17-12, 57 RPI, and SoS 23. My hunch is this team would make it, and if not, they'd be close to the bubble. While their PRI is on the lower end, their schedule is pretty strong. If they win against Wisconsin on Friday, they would be 18-12, RPI 45, and SoS of 20 in this scenario - more comfortably in the tournament. Lastly, Providence. If they win out their OOC (including beating Houston), their record would be 20-11, RPI 33, SoS of 25. That's a tournament team. If they lose to Houston, their record would be 19-12, RPI would be 41, with a SoS of 41. Again, I think both of those scenarios are tournament teams. In summary, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Marquette, have a likely to good shot at the tournament if they merely go 9-9. Thus, getting 5 teams in (or even 6) is very feasible. This also highlights, once again, the importance of scheduling. This is why it's crucial going forward to play a good OOC. By having good schedules, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and Marquette all have real tournament chances without really having to even have an outstanding conference record. Short version: if you do well against an OK OOC schedule then go .500 in a very strong conference, you will probably make the tournament. NEWSFLASH.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Dec 7, 2017 19:52:32 GMT -5
St. John's, Butler, Providence and Marquette all finishing 9-9 would very likely mean that we are 0-8 in those games. And so we may be. But I would be very happy to sacrifice a couple NCAA tournament appearances to see us get a few wins.
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Hoyaholic
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Post by Hoyaholic on Dec 7, 2017 20:57:19 GMT -5
A few hard numbers. I am using 9-9 records as a baseline. In each instance, I assume the team wins the 9 "easiest" games, as determined by RPI Forecast's odds. The other caveat is this does not account for the BET games, which can also help. I think the BE is very top heavy and could look something like this: 16-2 15-3 14-4 10-8 9-9 8-10 6-12 6-12 5-13 3-15 Pretty much every year since the league went to 10 teams the top 6 teams have been .500 of better only last year did that extend to 7. The conference is pretty strong, but I don't think we can go 92-87 against ourselves.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 7, 2017 22:51:37 GMT -5
The conference is pretty strong, but I don't think we can go 92-87 against ourselves. gah had the math right, but then kept changing it and ended up screwing it up. Whatever.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Dec 8, 2017 0:04:36 GMT -5
St. John's, Butler, Providence and Marquette all finishing 9-9 would very likely mean that we are 0-8 in those games. And so we may be. But I would be very happy to sacrifice a couple NCAA tournament appearances to see us get a few wins. I don’t think he was saying all four would go 9-9. I think he was saying if any one or two of those teams went 9-9 that would be a 5th or 6th Big East team to make it.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Dec 9, 2017 14:08:06 GMT -5
Not BE, but down goes Duke.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 9, 2017 15:06:54 GMT -5
Not BE, but down goes Duke. So nice, even though it’s BC
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 9, 2017 16:49:52 GMT -5
I watched both the OSU & UCF games and both were 1 possession games with a few minutes to play, those are close calls in my book.. I'm not trying to make it seem like PC is a 2nd weekend team but I like the team that has 3 players who've been to the tourney multiple times over this St. John's.. Personally, I hope both make it.. I meant close calls against midmajor teams. UCF is pretty decent having knocked off alabama no shame in that being a close game. Providence's best win is against Kenpom #95 BC, their only top 100 win. They have close wins against #s 123, 180, and 265. THey also have a decent win over #123 Washington. St. John's best win is against Kenpom # 72 UCF and have wins against # 89 Nebraska and a close win against # 108 Oregon St. Their loss to Missouri is arguably worse than Providence's two losses, but they haven't really played down to the level of teams the way providence has. I'm not saying St. John's is a slam dunk over PC, but PC just seems to be going the wrong way with two close wins over bad teams surrounding that loss to Rhode Island the first loss to the Rams in 8 years. PC is getting run out of the gym at Umass right now, they're down 10 with less than 5 to go.. I still think they'll be a factor in the BE this season..
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Dec 9, 2017 16:55:25 GMT -5
I meant close calls against midmajor teams. UCF is pretty decent having knocked off alabama no shame in that being a close game. Providence's best win is against Kenpom #95 BC, their only top 100 win. They have close wins against #s 123, 180, and 265. THey also have a decent win over #123 Washington. St. John's best win is against Kenpom # 72 UCF and have wins against # 89 Nebraska and a close win against # 108 Oregon St. Their loss to Missouri is arguably worse than Providence's two losses, but they haven't really played down to the level of teams the way providence has. I'm not saying St. John's is a slam dunk over PC, but PC just seems to be going the wrong way with two close wins over bad teams surrounding that loss to Rhode Island the first loss to the Rams in 8 years. PC is getting run out of the gym at Umass right now, they're down 10 with less than 5 to go.. I still think they'll be a factor in the BE this season.. Cooley is the most overrated coach in the conference. Has never done anything nationally and no longer has his b***h, JT3, to feast on during conference season.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 9, 2017 17:02:52 GMT -5
PC is getting run out of the gym at Umass right now, they're down 10 with less than 5 to go.. I still think they'll be a factor in the BE this season.. Cooley is the most overrated coach in the conference. Has never done anything nationally and no longer has his b***h, JT3, to feast on during conference season. Considering the fact that PC has had at least 9 conference wins for 5 straight years he was getting by other folks besides JT3.. Obviously you're welcome to your own opinion but getting PC to the tourney 4 straight years is a nice accomplishment.. That being said losing to Umass is a tough loss, injuries or not..
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 9, 2017 17:13:07 GMT -5
First bad loss for the BE this season?
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 9, 2017 17:21:00 GMT -5
First bad loss for the BE this season? Definitely the worst..
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Dec 9, 2017 19:43:27 GMT -5
PC is getting run out of the gym at Umass right now, they're down 10 with less than 5 to go.. I still think they'll be a factor in the BE this season.. Cooley is the most overrated coach in the conference. Has never done anything nationally and no longer has his b***h, JT3, to feast on during conference season. It's well established that you hate the guy, but his record is better than you portray. Regarding today's game, he lost senior forward Emmitt Holt for the season a couple of weeks ago and PC also played today without 2 of his guards: Diallo (a BIG loss) and White. Cooley didn't sugar coat today's performance anyway: www.providencejournal.com/sports/20171209/massachusetts-72-providence-63-shorthanded-friars-fall-flat-at-minutemen--video
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Dec 11, 2017 15:04:12 GMT -5
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Dec 11, 2017 16:42:32 GMT -5
Kid is legit and wanted to play better competition.
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Post by jctnhoya4ever on Dec 11, 2017 18:04:03 GMT -5
I think Hoyas will go 9-9 or 10-8 in big east we aren’t going to finish 9th no way.i think 5-7 where the Hoyas will be.outside shot at NCAA tournament.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Dec 11, 2017 19:38:55 GMT -5
A few hard numbers. I am using 9-9 records as a baseline. In each instance, I assume the team wins the 9 "easiest" games, as determined by RPI Forecast's odds. The other caveat is this does not account for the BET games, which can also help. If St. John's loses to Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference, they end up 18-12, RPI 26, SoS 7. That is easily a tournament team, and that doesn't account for any BET success. If St. John's beats Arizona State, but then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games (as currently noted by RPI Forecast), they end up 19-11, RPI 22, SoS 7. That is also easily a tournament team. If Butler loses to Purdue, but wins out their OOC, and then goes 9-9 in conference winning the 9 easiest games, they end up 19-12, RPI 43, SoS 28. While not as much of a slam dunk, this is likely a tournament team anyway, especially if they get one or two good Big East wins. If they happen to beat Purdue, they are a sure thing at 9-9: 20-11, RPI 36, SoS 28. Marquette will have a tougher road. If they lose to Wisconsin but otherwise win their OOC, and go 9-9, they are 17-12, 57 RPI, and SoS 23. My hunch is this team would make it, and if not, they'd be close to the bubble. While their PRI is on the lower end, their schedule is pretty strong. If they win against Wisconsin on Friday, they would be 18-12, RPI 45, and SoS of 20 in this scenario - more comfortably in the tournament. Lastly, Providence. If they win out their OOC (including beating Houston), their record would be 20-11, RPI 33, SoS of 25. That's a tournament team. If they lose to Houston, their record would be 19-12, RPI would be 41, with a SoS of 41. Again, I think both of those scenarios are tournament teams. In summary, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Marquette, have a likely to good shot at the tournament if they merely go 9-9. Thus, getting 5 teams in (or even 6) is very feasible. This also highlights, once again, the importance of scheduling. This is why it's crucial going forward to play a good OOC. By having good schedules, St. John's, Butler, Providence, and Marquette all have real tournament chances without really having to even have an outstanding conference record. Dang, no scenario if GTown wins against Cuse and finishes 9-9 in the conference? Man no chance for the Hoyas...😉...Seriously, if we beat Cuse there is no reason we can't win 7-9 games in conference.....
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