SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 10, 2018 11:39:35 GMT -5
Blair is shooting 29% in BE play, Marko 33%, but Blair's chucking is good and Morko's is bad doesn't really make sense.. Blair has played less minutes and gotten up more shots. I don't mind them shooting though even though the percentages aren't what you want. Both have questionable shot selection that should improve over time hopefully and at least keep defenses honest allowing more space on the floor for our bigs to operate. Think both have a role and will benefit greatly from a year in a HM strength and conditioning program and a full of season to work on their deficiencies. Push comes to shove I would steal minutes from the PG position so both get time to develop... The big difference for me is that Blair is one of the less turnover prone players and Pickett is one of our worst. Toss in that Blair gets to the line -- 20-23 FTs in conference play, and he's been a MUCH more effective offensive player than Pickett. He's also dished more assists AND has been a better rebounder than Pickett. I know it was dense and not you who disagreed with DSR as the upside -- and when I said that I meant ceiling; like a 10% chance -- but I do think his style of play is very DSR. Even if he's a little bit more of a gunner than DSR was and not nearly as good as a freshman. God, people BLASTED DSR for not being able to create off the dribble with no help. How much would we love to have him right now?
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guru
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Post by guru on Jan 10, 2018 11:40:50 GMT -5
Blair is shooting 29% in BE play, Marko 33%, but Blair's chucking is good and Morko's is bad doesn't really make sense.. Blair has played less minutes and gotten up more shots. I don't mind them shooting though even though the percentages aren't what you want. Both have questionable shot selection that should improve over time hopefully and at least keep defenses honest allowing more space on the floor for our bigs to operate. Think both have a role and will benefit greatly from a year in a HM strength and conditioning program and a full of season to work on their deficiencies. Push comes to shove I would steal minutes from the PG position so both get time to develop... The big difference for me is that Blair is one of the less turnover prone players and Pickett is one of our worst. Toss in that Blair gets to the line -- 20-23 FTs in conference play, and he's been a MUCH more effective offensive player than Pickett. He's also dished more assists AND has been a better rebounder than Pickett. I know it was dense and not you who disagreed with DSR as the upside -- and when I said that I meant ceiling; like a 10% chance -- but I do think his style of play is very DSR. Even if he's much more of a gunner than DSR was and not nearly as good as a freshman. God, people BLASTED DSR for not being able to create off the dribble with no help. How much would we love to have him right now? Pickett is a disaster, turnover-wise. He finds new and different ways to lose the ball every game. And he hasn't made up for it by excelling in other areas. He needs a ton of work.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 11:49:50 GMT -5
Blair is shooting 29% in BE play, Marko 33%, but Blair's chucking is good and Morko's is bad doesn't really make sense.. Blair has played less minutes and gotten up more shots. I don't mind them shooting though even though the percentages aren't what you want. Both have questionable shot selection that should improve over time hopefully and at least keep defenses honest allowing more space on the floor for our bigs to operate. Think both have a role and will benefit greatly from a year in a HM strength and conditioning program and a full of season to work on their deficiencies. Push comes to shove I would steal minutes from the PG position so both get time to develop... The big difference for me is that Blair is one of the less turnover prone players and Pickett is one of our worst. Toss in that Blair gets to the line -- 20-23 FTs in conference play, and he's been a MUCH more effective offensive player than Pickett. He's also dished more assists AND has been a better rebounder than Pickett. I know it was dense and not you who disagreed with DSR as the upside -- and when I said that I meant ceiling; like a 10% chance -- but I do think his style of play is very DSR. Even if he's a little bit more of a gunner than DSR was and not nearly as good as a freshman. God, people BLASTED DSR for not being able to create off the dribble with no help. How much would we love to have him right now? Pickett averages one more TO per game than Blair in BE play. I don't necessarily think it's a either or scenario but it makes sense that Pickett would be slightly behind Blair in that category considering what he is being asked to do. He's never played his current role at any level. Hopefully as Pickett progresses/gets stronger he becomes the more dynamic player we need him to be. It is good that Blair has shown the ability to get to the line and not just rely on his jumper all the time, I agree..
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 10, 2018 12:00:14 GMT -5
In comparing Pickett and Blair, you need to look at efficiency to. Make no mistake - in Big East play, neither Blair or Pickett have been efficient - Blair's O rating is 92.3, but Pickett's is 76.8 (only slightly better than Dickerson).
This is where turnovers come in. Yes, Blair and Pickett's shooting percentages are similar in the Big East, but Blair's turnover rate in the Big East is 19.2, whereas Pickett's is 35.6 (i.e., meaning he's turning it over on 35.6% of possessions he "uses" - any possession where the player turns it over, shoots, gets fouled, or makes an assist).
I realize a lot of people don't like advanced stats, but they really illuminate the difference between Blair and Pickett in this instance, and why Blair has been a more valuable player. With a turnover rate that high, it's basically impossible to be good, and that's the single biggest reason why Blair is a better player right now.
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Post by nychoya96 on Jan 10, 2018 12:02:52 GMT -5
No question that Pickett's minutes are the most challenging issue in setting a rotation. He is clearly a net negative on both sides of the ball right now, but he is also clearly the guy on the roster with the biggest gap between what he is and what he could become. So, is the best way to that potential through continued minutes? Is it through more limited minutes until he gets stronger and more confident? Is it through different role on the floor during those minutes - i.e. not a primary ball handler, but more of a spot up wing? That's why coaches get the big bucks. No obvious answer to me, other than Pickett getting 30 minutes a game makes us more likely to lose at this point. But maybe makes us better next year.
I like Blair and want him on the floor. He is one of the few shooting threats we have, particularly one of the few with a chance to get hot. And, while I haven't looked at his turnover numbers, has some confidence and calmness with his ball handling that we don't get out of Mulmore or Trey.
The one thing I can't quite understand is Walker's minutes. I wish he was on the floor more. He can contribute without scoring and getting him more run seems like it helps us now and later (that's why I get the big bucks).
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Hoyas4Ever
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Post by Hoyas4Ever on Jan 10, 2018 12:29:21 GMT -5
One thing Pickett isn't lacking is confidence, cmon man... Neither is Blair for that matter, they both let it fly often... Shooting every time you get a touch...Chucking up every opportunity or letting it fly...forcing shots outside the offense when you have 2 caliber ALL Conference players in Derrickson and Govan doesn't scream confidence to me. It screams very low basketball IQ. Entering last nights game, both Pickett and Blair had more FG attempts than Derrickson... I will say this, Ewing has recognized these issues as conference play has progressed. He's definitely watching the film and making great adjustments. I posted on this board that after the Butler game that Ewing can't play Pickett and Blair together because of their massive defensive limitations in particular in team defensive concepts and helpside rotations. Wasn't my opinion, just stated what the film showed. Ewing hasn't played them together very much since and in most cases has subbed one in for the other. Also the numbers might not show it but last night was one of Pickett's best games of the season and definitely in conference in terms of decisions making, shot selection, defensive and rebounding effort and overall energy. He had only one massive defensive screw up when he faced guarded his man who was making an inbound pass along the baseline under the Johnnies hoop. After the ball was inbounded, Pickett immediately turned and face guarded his man who was still standing out of bounds completely turning his back to the ball allowing Ponds to drive to the hoop right off his backside for an uncontested layup. He also has to work on staying down and sliding his feet when people drive the ball at him. He has a terrible habit of standing straight and opening up when his man drives right at him. He's too long and athletic that if he can stay down and move his feet, he could become a very good defender. Offensively he needs to get stronger because he can't absorb bumps or incidental contact when he's driving to the hoop. It causes him to loose control of the ball or gets him off his spot or off balanced on pull up jumpers. These things will come in time with hard work in the weight room and off the court but I did see significant improvements from Pickett last night.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Jan 10, 2018 12:37:41 GMT -5
No question that Pickett's minutes are the most challenging issue in setting a rotation. He is clearly a net negative on both sides of the ball right now, but he is also clearly the guy on the roster with the biggest gap between what he is and what he could become. So, is the best way to that potential through continued minutes? Is it through more limited minutes until he gets stronger and more confident? Is it through different role on the floor during those minutes - i.e. not a primary ball handler, but more of a spot up wing? That's why coaches get the big bucks. No obvious answer to me, other than Pickett getting 30 minutes a game makes us more likely to lose at this point. But maybe makes us better next year. I like Blair and want him on the floor. He is one of the few shooting threats we have, particularly one of the few with a chance to get hot. And, while I haven't looked at his turnover numbers, has some confidence and calmness with his ball handling that we don't get out of Mulmore or Trey. The one thing I can't quite understand is Walker's minutes. I wish he was on the floor more. He can contribute without scoring and getting him more run seems like it helps us now and later (that's why I get the big bucks). I think people are being a little too tough on Pickett. No doubt he has struggled this season, but he has been asked to do a lot as a freshman playing in one of the best conferences in the country. I don't want to give him minutes simply because he has potential, I want him to earn the minutes, but I also don't want to bury him on the bench because he plays like a freshman!! He has a lot of potential and I hope the staff can find a good way to help him develop, and unfortunately playing and making mistakes in games is one of the ways develop, as painful as it can be sometimes to watch. He does need to show improvement and not continue to make the same mistakes. Blair has a been better then I expected this season and he deserves to see more playing time. He is also going to make freshman mistakes but he brings something to the table (scoring) that the team needs so you need to have him on the floor. Walker clearly has some athletic gifts and has been impressive at times. At other times he looks lost and not sure where he should be on the floor, especially offensively. His hustle and aggressiveness sometimes makes up for those mistakes, but if he wants more playing time he needs to develop a better grasp of where to be on the floor. Some high school players take a while to begin to understand the complexities of the college game ( and in this case an NBA type offense) depending on the system they played in on the high school level. I think once he has that understanding his minutes will increase.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 12:43:59 GMT -5
One thing Pickett isn't lacking is confidence, cmon man... Neither is Blair for that matter, they both let it fly often... Shooting every time you get a touch...Chucking up every opportunity or letting it fly...forcing shots outside the offense when you have 2 caliber ALL Conference players in Derrickson and Govan doesn't scream confidence to me. It screams very low basketball IQ. Entering last nights game, both Pickett and Blair had more FG attempts than Derrickson... I will say this, Ewing has recognized these issues as conference play has progressed. He's definitely watching the film and making great adjustments. I posted on this board that after the Butler game that Ewing can't play Pickett and Blair together because of their massive defensive limitations in particular in team defensive concepts and helpside rotations. Wasn't my opinion, just stated what the film showed. Ewing hasn't played them together very much since and in most cases has subbed one in for the other. Also the numbers might not show it but last night was one of Pickett's best games of the season and definitely in conference in terms of decisions making, shot selection, defensive and rebounding effort and overall energy. He had only one massive defensive screw up when he faced guarded his man who was making an inbound pass along the baseline under the Johnnies hoop. After the ball was inbounded, Pickett immediately turned and face guarded his man who was still standing out of bounds completely turning his back to the ball allowing Ponds to drive to the hoop right off his backside for an uncontested layup. He also has to work on staying down and sliding his feet when people drive the ball at him. He has a terrible habit of standing straight and opening up when his man drives right at him. He's too long and athletic that if he can stay down and move his feet, he could become a very good defender. Offensively he needs to get stronger because he can't absorb bumps or incidental contact when he's driving to the hoop. It causes him to loose control of the ball or gets him off his spot or off balanced on pull up jumpers. These things will come in time with hard work in the weight room and off the court but I did see significant improvements from Pickett last night. Agree with most but I don't think they have poor b-ball iq, just young players who are used to being the guy and are now having to adjust to support roles. True them playing together is not a strong defensive lineup but I wouldn't mind it from time to time because you have to balance what's best for the program moving forward imo... One thing Picket did last night that I liked was when he shook his man on the left wing and pulled up for a 15ft jumper on the baseline. Even though he missed it was good basketball. Off the scrum he got the ball back from Mul and dunked it but ref called a foul on the pass. One thing he did that I didn't was letting Simon get that drive late to cut it to 1. Probably pushed up on him too far considering Simon is not a good shooter from deep, but down 3 with under 20 left I understand why he chose not to give him space obviously..
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 10, 2018 16:46:26 GMT -5
The big difference for me is that Blair is one of the less turnover prone players and Pickett is one of our worst. Toss in that Blair gets to the line -- 20-23 FTs in conference play, and he's been a MUCH more effective offensive player than Pickett. He's also dished more assists AND has been a better rebounder than Pickett. I know it was dense and not you who disagreed with DSR as the upside -- and when I said that I meant ceiling; like a 10% chance -- but I do think his style of play is very DSR. Even if he's a little bit more of a gunner than DSR was and not nearly as good as a freshman. God, people BLASTED DSR for not being able to create off the dribble with no help. How much would we love to have him right now? Pickett averages one more TO per game than Blair in BE play. I don't necessarily think it's a either or scenario but it makes sense that Pickett would be slightly behind Blair in that category considering what he is being asked to do. He's never played his current role at any level. Hopefully as Pickett progresses/gets stronger he becomes the more dynamic player we need him to be. It is good that Blair has shown the ability to get to the line and not just rely on his jumper all the time, I agree.. Sure -- and I'm not arguing over Pickett getting time at all or that he's not worth developing. But Pickett is turning the ball over on 37% of his possessions ended, and Blair on under 20%. Pickett might have less tunrovers/game, but he's playing less and creating less than Blair. But my point isn't long term; it's merely that we're going to have a ton of close games, and I think winning those games is worth shifting 10 minutes.
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Hoyas4Ever
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Post by Hoyas4Ever on Jan 10, 2018 16:58:52 GMT -5
No question that Pickett's minutes are the most challenging issue in setting a rotation. He is clearly a net negative on both sides of the ball right now, but he is also clearly the guy on the roster with the biggest gap between what he is and what he could become. So, is the best way to that potential through continued minutes? Is it through more limited minutes until he gets stronger and more confident? Is it through different role on the floor during those minutes - i.e. not a primary ball handler, but more of a spot up wing? That's why coaches get the big bucks. No obvious answer to me, other than Pickett getting 30 minutes a game makes us more likely to lose at this point. But maybe makes us better next year. I like Blair and want him on the floor. He is one of the few shooting threats we have, particularly one of the few with a chance to get hot. And, while I haven't looked at his turnover numbers, has some confidence and calmness with his ball handling that we don't get out of Mulmore or Trey. The one thing I can't quite understand is Walker's minutes. I wish he was on the floor more. He can contribute without scoring and getting him more run seems like it helps us now and later (that's why I get the big bucks). I think people are being a little too tough on Pickett. No doubt he has struggled this season, but he has been asked to do a lot as a freshman playing in one of the best conferences in the country. I don't want to give him minutes simply because he has potential, I want him to earn the minutes, but I also don't want to bury him on the bench because he plays like a freshman!! He has a lot of potential and I hope the staff can find a good way to help him develop, and unfortunately playing and making mistakes in games is one of the ways develop, as painful as it can be sometimes to watch. He does need to show improvement and not continue to make the same mistakes. Blair has a been better then I expected this season and he deserves to see more playing time. He is also going to make freshman mistakes but he brings something to the table (scoring) that the team needs so you need to have him on the floor. Walker clearly has some athletic gifts and has been impressive at times. At other times he looks lost and not sure where he should be on the floor, especially offensively. His hustle and aggressiveness sometimes makes up for those mistakes, but if he wants more playing time he needs to develop a better grasp of where to be on the floor. Some high school players take a while to begin to understand the complexities of the college game ( and in this case an NBA type offense) depending on the system they played in on the high school level. I think once he has that understanding his minutes will increase. He's not being asked to do to much. He's trying to do to much! There's a big difference. When he plays within the offense and takes good shots he looks pretty good. When he starts forcing the action with ISO situations and taking terrible shots outside of the flow of the offense is when he has the turnovers and the high volume missed shots. I thought last last night was one of his better games if not his best game of the season because he played for the most part under control and within the context of the offense. He made good decisions, found opportunities to attack and took good shots within the offense. His numbers may not bare that out but their was real growth in his game last night.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 17:35:03 GMT -5
Pickett averages one more TO per game than Blair in BE play. I don't necessarily think it's a either or scenario but it makes sense that Pickett would be slightly behind Blair in that category considering what he is being asked to do. He's never played his current role at any level. Hopefully as Pickett progresses/gets stronger he becomes the more dynamic player we need him to be. It is good that Blair has shown the ability to get to the line and not just rely on his jumper all the time, I agree.. Sure -- and I'm not arguing over Pickett getting time at all or that he's not worth developing. But Pickett is turning the ball over on 37% of his possessions ended, and Blair on under 20%. Pickett might have less tunrovers/game, but he's playing less and creating less than Blair. But my point isn't long term; it's merely that we're going to have a ton of close games, and I think winning those games is worth shifting 10 minutes. Pickett plays more than Blair. Turnovers are correctable but they both turn it over at a high rate. I don't really care about winning 1 or 2 extra games this year, I care about where we are in a couple of years...
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Jan 10, 2018 17:41:52 GMT -5
Agree that the '17, '18, '19 and '20 classes will bring us back to prominence. We still need more pieces. Govan and Derrickson will be long gone by the time we look to make a real run.
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Hoyas4Ever
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Post by Hoyas4Ever on Jan 10, 2018 18:31:15 GMT -5
Sure -- and I'm not arguing over Pickett getting time at all or that he's not worth developing. But Pickett is turning the ball over on 37% of his possessions ended, and Blair on under 20%. Pickett might have less tunrovers/game, but he's playing less and creating less than Blair. But my point isn't long term; it's merely that we're going to have a ton of close games, and I think winning those games is worth shifting 10 minutes. Pickett plays more than Blair. Turnovers are correctable but they both turn it over at a high rate. I don't really care about winning 1 or 2 extra games this year, I care about where we are in a couple of years...I don't get that mentality. This isn't an either or situation. You can win games while players develop for the future. It's what real Programs do all over the country. Villanova just won an NCAA Title a couple years ago with that perspective. Govan, Derrickson, Johnson and Mosely deserve the chance to compete with the idea of getting better and winning games while they still have eligibility. I get and fully supported the idea of the OOC schedule but that doesn't mean you punt on the conference schedule so a couple of freshmen can get experience for a couple years later when you have highly talented players on the roster like Govan and Derrickson. If this was a complete rebuild like St. John's was when Mullin took over, I would completely agree that playing the young players and just let them mess up and make their mistakes. By your theory of letting the young players through their mistakes so that they can be ready for the future, does that mean that Ewing should be starting all 3 freshman so that they can all play through their mistakes for the future of the program. Also with this college basketball climate, you could be allocating minutes and allowing young players to play through their mistakes, losing winnable games for the sake of the future, and that young player(s) could be somewhere else when the future knocks. You also don't know it's only 1 or 2 games more they win. With a handful of tweaks this team could be 15-1 right now. Winning teaches a lot more than loosing. It teaches the players that this coach knows what he's talking about, his system works, and it tells recruits that the program is building and there's a positive future ahead. What does losing teach?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 18:55:37 GMT -5
Pickett plays more than Blair. Turnovers are correctable but they both turn it over at a high rate. I don't really care about winning 1 or 2 extra games this year, I care about where we are in a couple of years...I don't get that mentality. This isn't an either or situation. You can win games while players develop for the future. It's what real Programs do all over the country. Villanova just won an NCAA Title a couple years ago with that perspective. Govan, Derrickson, Johnson and Mosely deserve the chance to compete with the idea of getting better and winning games while they still have eligibility. I get and fully supported the idea of the OOC schedule but that doesn't mean you punt on the conference schedule so a couple of freshmen can get experience for a couple years later when you have highly talented players on the roster like Govan and Derrickson. If this was a complete rebuild like St. John's was when Mullin took over, I would completely agree that playing the young players and just let them mess up and make their mistakes. By your theory of letting the young players through their mistakes so that they can be ready for the future, does that mean that Ewing should be starting all 3 freshman so that they can all play through their mistakes for the future of the program. Also with this college basketball climate, you could be allocating minutes and allowing young players to play through their mistakes, losing winnable games for the sake of the future, and that young player(s) could be somewhere else when the future knocks. You also don't know it's only 1 or 2 games more they win. With a handful of tweaks this team could be 15-1 right now. Winning teaches a lot more than loosing. It teaches the players that this coach knows what he's talking about, his system works, and it tells recruits that the program is building and there's a positive future ahead. What does losing teach? I think you understand that mentality better than you're letting on. I also think the picture you're trying to paint is a tad bit extreme and not exactly what I'm getting at. Why do NBA coaches on bad teams, and sometimes not so bad teams, play rookies over more established/productive veteran players? Why do they play more talented rookies over more NBA ready rookies who don't have the same upside?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 10, 2018 20:37:33 GMT -5
Sure -- and I'm not arguing over Pickett getting time at all or that he's not worth developing. But Pickett is turning the ball over on 37% of his possessions ended, and Blair on under 20%. Pickett might have less tunrovers/game, but he's playing less and creating less than Blair. But my point isn't long term; it's merely that we're going to have a ton of close games, and I think winning those games is worth shifting 10 minutes. Pickett plays more than Blair. Turnovers are correctable but they both turn it over at a high rate. I don't really care about winning 1 or 2 extra games this year, I care about where we are in a couple of years... Blair's TO rate is not that high compared to his shots and assists. The difference between where you and I are is that I think the difference is more than 1 or 2 games. I think if Pickett played more than Blair more against SJU, we lose. I think if Blair had played more than Pickett against Cuse and Butler, I think we win. And I think there's a huge positive perception benefit of having a decent year versus a terrible year in terms of future recruiting. I don't think the difference between Pickett developing is the 10 mpg difference between 15 mpg and 25 ... but getting those minutes to someone playing better now can make a difference in Ws and Ls.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 21:01:16 GMT -5
Pickett plays more than Blair. Turnovers are correctable but they both turn it over at a high rate. I don't really care about winning 1 or 2 extra games this year, I care about where we are in a couple of years... Blair's TO rate is not that high compared to his shots and assists. The difference between where you and I are is that I think the difference is more than 1 or 2 games. I think if Pickett played more than Blair more against SJU, we lose. I think if Blair had played more than Pickett against Cuse and Butler, I think we win. And I think there's a huge positive perception benefit of having a decent year versus a terrible year in terms of future recruiting. I don't think the difference between Pickett developing is the 10 mpg difference between 15 mpg and 25 ... but getting those minutes to someone playing better now can make a difference in Ws and Ls. Neither one of these kids are breaking their man down and creating plays for others right now imo. They both get assts off normal ball movement. I can't look right now but I don't remember Juggy having any sort of tangible impact in the Cuse game and remember him playing a lot of minutes. Against Butler both had quite a few costly mistakes. Hard to blame those losses on Pickett when there were breakdowns accross the board imo.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 10, 2018 21:27:22 GMT -5
Blair's TO rate is not that high compared to his shots and assists. The difference between where you and I are is that I think the difference is more than 1 or 2 games. I think if Pickett played more than Blair more against SJU, we lose. I think if Blair had played more than Pickett against Cuse and Butler, I think we win. And I think there's a huge positive perception benefit of having a decent year versus a terrible year in terms of future recruiting. I don't think the difference between Pickett developing is the 10 mpg difference between 15 mpg and 25 ... but getting those minutes to someone playing better now can make a difference in Ws and Ls. Neither one of these kids are breaking their man down and creating plays for others right now imo. They both get assts off normal ball movement. I can't look right now but I don't remember Juggy having any sort of tangible impact in the Cuse game and remember him playing a lot of minutes. Against Butler both had quite a few costly mistakes. Hard to blame those losses on Pickett when there were breakdowns accross the board imo. Yea, Blair kind of killed us in the Butler. It would be interesting to see how both Picket and Blairs efficiency numbers change based on how much playing time they get. How efficient has Blair been with 10 minutes in a game versus 20?
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jan 10, 2018 21:36:40 GMT -5
Pickett plays more than Blair. Turnovers are correctable but they both turn it over at a high rate. I don't really care about winning 1 or 2 extra games this year, I care about where we are in a couple of years... Blair's TO rate is not that high compared to his shots and assists. The difference between where you and I are is that I think the difference is more than 1 or 2 games. I think if Pickett played more than Blair more against SJU, we lose. I think if Blair had played more than Pickett against Cuse and Butler, I think we win. And I think there's a huge positive perception benefit of having a decent year versus a terrible year in terms of future recruiting. I don't think the difference between Pickett developing is the 10 mpg difference between 15 mpg and 25 ... but getting those minutes to someone playing better now can make a difference in Ws and Ls. I really can't imagine it's more than 1 actually. We're really focused on turnovers but Blair is shooting 22% from 3. He takes a ton of shots and his eFG is just ahead of the senior rentals. Those aren't turnovers, but they're often empty possessions. So he's marginally better but unless something changes, I don't think we're putting multiple wins in danger one way or another.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 10, 2018 22:04:00 GMT -5
Blair's TO rate is not that high compared to his shots and assists. The difference between where you and I are is that I think the difference is more than 1 or 2 games. I think if Pickett played more than Blair more against SJU, we lose. I think if Blair had played more than Pickett against Cuse and Butler, I think we win. And I think there's a huge positive perception benefit of having a decent year versus a terrible year in terms of future recruiting. I don't think the difference between Pickett developing is the 10 mpg difference between 15 mpg and 25 ... but getting those minutes to someone playing better now can make a difference in Ws and Ls. Neither one of these kids are breaking their man down and creating plays for others right now imo. They both get assts off normal ball movement. I can't look right now but I don't remember Juggy having any sort of tangible impact in the Cuse game and remember him playing a lot of minutes. Against Butler both had quite a few costly mistakes. Hard to blame those losses on Pickett when there were breakdowns accross the board imo. I'm not blaming a loss on Pickett; it's just that he's a worse player right now than other guys and shifting minutes to other players make our team better. Butler's been consistently better at holding onto the ball, scorer, and finding teammates. I think we're going to have to agree to disagree, but my move wouldn't even be minutes to Blair. It'd be to Mosely. I think there's real value in not being a train wreck this year to just show improvement.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jan 10, 2018 22:25:48 GMT -5
Neither one of these kids are breaking their man down and creating plays for others right now imo. They both get assts off normal ball movement. I can't look right now but I don't remember Juggy having any sort of tangible impact in the Cuse game and remember him playing a lot of minutes. Against Butler both had quite a few costly mistakes. Hard to blame those losses on Pickett when there were breakdowns accross the board imo. I'm not blaming a loss on Pickett; it's just that he's a worse player right now than other guys and shifting minutes to other players make our team better. Butler's been consistently better at holding onto the ball, scorer, and finding teammates. I think we're going to have to agree to disagree, but my move wouldn't even be minutes to Blair. It'd be to Mosely. I think there's real value in not being a train wreck this year to just show improvement. I don't disagree but the 4 win swing you're talking about is massive. We only have 13 games left and only three are projected to be one possession either way and one (Providence at home) is a true toss-up. Any personnel change moving 4 wins is like MD getting injured. The difference between 10 minutes of Blair or Pickett just isn't enough to move the needle that much.
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