Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 28, 2017 13:14:01 GMT -5
This builds off an old post of mine, which I have expanded. If you look at our roster over the years, you'll see that generally our players have improved over time. Here is an analysis that seeks to put most of our players over the years into categories. I tried to include almost everyone but have likely left people out, especially the early years. Almost everyone from the last several years should be included - if not, it's unintentional.
Players Who Improved Substantially:
Roy Hibbert: Hibbert came in as a freshman who was very poor offensively (89.2 efficiency) who exploded after freshman year and became a great player.
Jeff Green: Statistically, Green showed improvement while at Georgetown. While his stats dipped a bit from freshman to sophomore year, Green's junior year was clearly his best at Georgetown, which is one of the main reasons we made the Final Four (the other being Hibbert). And he was a lotto pick, obviously.
Jonathan Wallace: Wallace posted steadily increasing offensive efficiency: 98.0, 117.2, 119.7, 121.8. I think the 121.8 his senior season is all the more impressive because Green was no longer on the team. He clearly improved in his time at Georgetown. Nobody would call Wallace an amazing athlete, but we've really missed a player like him.
Wallace also saw general improvement in his threes, until senior year when he dipped a bit (but was still excellent): 37.3%, 40.8%, 49%, 44.7%.
Otto Porter: Porter went from being a very good player his freshman year (117.5 O rating, 17.4 usage) to being an outstanding player his sophomore year (118.8 on 23.4 usage). His three point shooting went from 22.6% as a freshman to 42.2% as a sophomore - an outstanding improvement.
No doubt Porter was a great player coming into Georgetown freshman year, but he also wasn't an NBA lotto pick, either.
Improved A Fair Amount to A Lot:
Patrick Ewing Jr: He improved substantially from his time at Indiana State. Statistically, his two years at Georgetown were similar, but he was an very valuable player for us.
Jesse Sapp: Sapp improved a lot after his freshman season, then had good sophomore and junior seasons. His performance senior year did decline a bit on that 2009 team that just could never get it going.
Greg Monroe: Statistically, Monroe's two seasons were similar, but he was a high draft pick and was basically immediately ready to play substantial minutes for an NBA team.
Dajuan Summers: I know people like to dump on Summers, and he probably did not reach his full potential, but he actually did improve while at Georgetown - though not as significantly as some others.
Chris Wright: Statistically, Wright clearly improved freshman to junior year (O ratings of 100.1, 107.8, 115.7). Wright did become less efficient his senior year, but he was still a very solid player, his three point shooting was virtually the same as his junior year, his FT percentage improved, and his assist rate went up significantly.
Austin Freeman: Freeman was a pretty great collegiate player his entire career (never posting an O rating less than 115.0), but he also showed some improvement. Considering that he kept up significant production despite the diabetes diagnosis shows me that he developed just fine.
Julian Vaughn: A workman-like player who never got great amounts of attention, but he was always extremely solid. After a poor first season at Georgetown, he improved quite a bit for his junior and senior seasons.
Jason Clark: Clark was always a fairly talented scorer, but he improved throughout his time at Georgetown, especially junior into senior year. There was a time when Clark couldn't handle the ball without turning it over and when his defense was awful (we lost a game against St. John's one year where he lost his defender badly), and that improved substantially by the time of his senior season.
Henry Sims: Sims saw significant improvement during his sophomore to junior year, and then junior to senior year. People always seem to forget that he did a lot better junior year. I would add that Sims also basically stated that his dedication was renewed to basketball in the summer between sophomore and junior year. This lends more credence to the fact that a significant part of development is in the player's hands, and it's not all coaching. But, Sims improved under JT3, and made the NBA for a short while.
Markel Starks: Starks improved fairly significantly from freshman to junior year, despite a tougher senior season. Still, I think Starks' supporting cast was better his first three years, so that is likely part of it. Starks' 3 point shooting showed improvement, as well, but dipped his senior year - 25.7%, 36.7%, 41.7, and then 32.6%.
DSR: DSR's O rating steadily improved - 104.1, 120.6, and 122.3, then dipped to 111.7 his senior year. Again, DSR didn't have Starks anymore, and was the main option, a role he wasn't well suited for (notice his efficiency was much greater when Porter was on the team). His three point shooting has also improved 33.6%, 39.3%, 39.5%, and then dipped to 33% last year.
Trawick: Track's O ratings were 106.6, 95.8, 110.2, 109.5. His three point shooting steadily improved - 24%, 29,9%, 31.2%, 40.7%.
Aaron Bowen: Poor season in 2013 with 87.1 O rating junior year, 98.7 201 senior year, and 102.6 fifth year. Bowen was always a role player, but he did improve.
LJ Peak: Peak has steadily improved. Yes, he was highly ranked as a recruit, but his freshman season was a bit rough. His offensive efficiency was a mere 95.3, he only shot 45.7% on twos, and 23.6% on threes. He had a big jump last year, to 109.9 efficiency, 53.3% on twos, and 40.9% on threes. This year, his efficiency is slightly higher at 111.3, 52.9% on twos, and 33.7% on threes. So his threes have declined a bit, but he boosted his efficiency anyway by not only taking way more FT attempts, but making a much higher percentage (80.9% this year, versus 74.8% last year, and 70.1% freshman).
Marcus Derrickson: Derrickson had a good freshman season, and he actually is still having a pretty good sophomore year, and he's certainly a better player now. He's not perfect, but his shooting overall is better (despite a slightly lower three point percentage than last year). And his efficiency is up quite a bit from 104.5 to 112.4.
Jesse Govan: Like Derrickson, Govan has seen an improvement from last season, with higher efficiency, and overall slightly better shooting. He's fouling less than last season, but still way too much.
Stagnant Players / Players Who Didn't Improve Much if At All:
Mikael Hopkins: He barely played freshman year, though did okay. After that, he was pretty much a poor offensive player his entire career. He combined poor efficiency (82.7, 92.3, 92.9) with high usage. So offensively, he never improved. He did improve on defense, and his rebounding percentages got better every year. But he never improved his turnovers, which reached a career high at 28.2 TO rate his senior year.
Hollis Thompson: In some ways I feel bad putting him here, but it's only because Thompson was a pretty great offensive player his three years at Georgetown. He did improve substantially his sophomore year, and then declined a bit his junior year, but he was very good. I actually still think it's a shame he left early. Had he returned in 2013, that already good team with Porter would have probably been much better. If Cameron/Domingo are held out as bad evaluations by the staff of recruits, then I think this needs to be held out as a good evaluation.
Nate Lubick: Another favorite player HoyaTalk likes to dump on, but as an offensive player, he actually stayed extremely consistent in his four years. I think the biggest problem with Lubick was that his usage dropped off. He was efficient but shot so little given his playing time, that he wasn't a threat and opposing defenses really didn't have to worry about him. You can argue he regressed a bit his senior year, but overall his performance was fairly even over the years. It also hurt that he often played alongside Hopkins, who also wasn't a threat.
Whittington: Well, we all know how this ended. But, Whittington was largely the same player his freshman year and his limited run sophomore year. It's impossible to know what would have happened, but he's still shooting for the NBA (no pun intended).
Bradley Hayes: I am not really sure where to put him. He clearly improved in his senior season, and has massively regressed this year. So he got better, and then worse. It's really hard to know what to make of this. His FT percentage tanked this year and stands at 36.7%
Josh Smith: Smith actually improved quite a bit from his sophomore year at UCLA, despite the problems here. Though, once at Georgetown, he didn't improve much offensively, but he was already good. If he had the rest of his life in order and studied better, he probably would've been a much better player for us.
Kaleb Johnson: In limited playing time, Kaleb Johnson has posted similar numbers the last two years (though his shooting was better last year). Johnson was a fringe top 100 recruit. I see him as someone like Trawick who can easily improve his next two years.
Busts And/Or Transfers:
Rivers: Defensive specialist for us, who transferred to Indiana with virtually no improvement his junior year there, and a bit more his senior year, but he never was a good offensive player.
Macklin: After a pretty good freshman campaign, he bottomed out sophomore year. Then he transferred to Florida where he had an excellent junior year, and slightly worse senior year. He got drafted. But, Macklin basically admitted his attitude changed significantly after the transfer, "My freshman and sophomore years at Georgetown, I didn’t really cherish basketball that much, I just went out there and played. It’s very important to me now."
Wattad: Some slight improvement after his transfer to Chattanooga but he was never a big time player.
Mesheriakov: Hard to believe this guy ever started Big East games for us. He was bad at Georgetown, and didn't improve much at Wake Forest.
Vee Sanford: Sanford transferred to Dayton after having trouble getting playing time in front of Wright/Freeman/Clark. Sanford did okay at Dayton, but never better really than he did at Georgetown. And his performance actually declined his senior year under Archie Miller's tutelage.
Jerelle Benimon: Clearly, after doing poorly at Georgetown, Benimon took a huge step up after sitting out a year and playing for Towson. I still think his numbers were skewed by playing against CAA competition instead of the Big East, but no doubt he's a transfer success story.
Moses Ayegba: He was a project who never developed and his foul rates were always astronomically high. He transferred to Nebraska and actually got worse.
Reggie Cameron: The shooter who cannot shoot. He could be in the category above (no improvement), but I prefer this location because he really has never done much. Reggie Cameron actually got a fair amount of run his freshman season, but never could bring it together. He is a three point specialist who has shot 32.1%, 20.8%, 35.6%, and 30.8% from three. That just doesn't cut it. It's fair to say the staff probably mis-evaluated him.
Stephen Domingo: Like Cameron, a shooter who cannot shoot. Except he was even worse than Cameron. And after transferring to California, he is shooting 15.1% from three in 53 attempts with 75.5 efficiency this season. Ouch, that's truly awful. Again, a fair criticism of the staff for even recruiting him and having him enroll early.
Isaac Copeland: Copeland had a decent freshman season after sitting much of the first half of the season. He shot 38.9% from three overall, and O rating of 105.2. Sophomore year his O rating was actually quite similar at 104.8, though his three point shooting declined to 27.2%. Then, he really bottomed out this year, with a 85.9% O rating, and 0-10 on threes.
Clearly, Copeland didn't improve much from freshman to sophomore year, and he really bottomed out this year. And he never defended well. Now, you can blame the player, or blame the coach, but Copeland is a huge outlier for JT3's era. He is one of the few players who went from pretty good to horrible. It'll be interesting to see if he fares better at Nebraska. My sense is he probably returns to his freshman/sophomore form or slightly better but never gets close to the NBA.
Paul White: White wasn't a bust, he's only here because he transferred after a solid freshman season (though his Big East performance declined from earlier in the season), and then injury. We will see how he does at Oregon.
Tre Campbell: After a good freshman year, he's really done nothing.
Weird Situations:
Brandon Bolden: As you may recall, he was an early commit to Georgetown, did very little on court in his senior year of high school, barely played his freshman year, and then transferred to Kansas St., where he stopped playing after a career-ending wrist injury. Then he became a graduate transfer to Southern, where he was indefinitely suspended this fall and hasn't played since.
Too Early to Say: Jagan Mosely, Mulmore, Agau.
So in summary:
- We've had a handful of players who have substantially improved.
- A lot of players who have improved a good amount.
- Some players who have largely been stagnant and/or not developed.
- Some transfers who generally have not performed better after transferring, except Benimon and Macklin.
- A few busts.
I would add that pretty much all the top ranked recruits are the guys who improved substantially. We haven't had any top (top 30) ranked recruits who haven't improved except Copeland. The worst "misses" on recruiting relative to their ranking probably are Cameron, Lubick, Hopkins and Copeland. Most of the other guys who haven't done well were brought in as role players or projects.
And I will finish with Tyler Adams. It's too bad he had his health problem. He was actually the second-highest ranked recruit in the Porter class, and almost certainly would've forced Hopkins to the bench had he stayed healthy.
Players Who Improved Substantially:
Roy Hibbert: Hibbert came in as a freshman who was very poor offensively (89.2 efficiency) who exploded after freshman year and became a great player.
Jeff Green: Statistically, Green showed improvement while at Georgetown. While his stats dipped a bit from freshman to sophomore year, Green's junior year was clearly his best at Georgetown, which is one of the main reasons we made the Final Four (the other being Hibbert). And he was a lotto pick, obviously.
Jonathan Wallace: Wallace posted steadily increasing offensive efficiency: 98.0, 117.2, 119.7, 121.8. I think the 121.8 his senior season is all the more impressive because Green was no longer on the team. He clearly improved in his time at Georgetown. Nobody would call Wallace an amazing athlete, but we've really missed a player like him.
Wallace also saw general improvement in his threes, until senior year when he dipped a bit (but was still excellent): 37.3%, 40.8%, 49%, 44.7%.
Otto Porter: Porter went from being a very good player his freshman year (117.5 O rating, 17.4 usage) to being an outstanding player his sophomore year (118.8 on 23.4 usage). His three point shooting went from 22.6% as a freshman to 42.2% as a sophomore - an outstanding improvement.
No doubt Porter was a great player coming into Georgetown freshman year, but he also wasn't an NBA lotto pick, either.
Improved A Fair Amount to A Lot:
Patrick Ewing Jr: He improved substantially from his time at Indiana State. Statistically, his two years at Georgetown were similar, but he was an very valuable player for us.
Jesse Sapp: Sapp improved a lot after his freshman season, then had good sophomore and junior seasons. His performance senior year did decline a bit on that 2009 team that just could never get it going.
Greg Monroe: Statistically, Monroe's two seasons were similar, but he was a high draft pick and was basically immediately ready to play substantial minutes for an NBA team.
Dajuan Summers: I know people like to dump on Summers, and he probably did not reach his full potential, but he actually did improve while at Georgetown - though not as significantly as some others.
Chris Wright: Statistically, Wright clearly improved freshman to junior year (O ratings of 100.1, 107.8, 115.7). Wright did become less efficient his senior year, but he was still a very solid player, his three point shooting was virtually the same as his junior year, his FT percentage improved, and his assist rate went up significantly.
Austin Freeman: Freeman was a pretty great collegiate player his entire career (never posting an O rating less than 115.0), but he also showed some improvement. Considering that he kept up significant production despite the diabetes diagnosis shows me that he developed just fine.
Julian Vaughn: A workman-like player who never got great amounts of attention, but he was always extremely solid. After a poor first season at Georgetown, he improved quite a bit for his junior and senior seasons.
Jason Clark: Clark was always a fairly talented scorer, but he improved throughout his time at Georgetown, especially junior into senior year. There was a time when Clark couldn't handle the ball without turning it over and when his defense was awful (we lost a game against St. John's one year where he lost his defender badly), and that improved substantially by the time of his senior season.
Henry Sims: Sims saw significant improvement during his sophomore to junior year, and then junior to senior year. People always seem to forget that he did a lot better junior year. I would add that Sims also basically stated that his dedication was renewed to basketball in the summer between sophomore and junior year. This lends more credence to the fact that a significant part of development is in the player's hands, and it's not all coaching. But, Sims improved under JT3, and made the NBA for a short while.
Markel Starks: Starks improved fairly significantly from freshman to junior year, despite a tougher senior season. Still, I think Starks' supporting cast was better his first three years, so that is likely part of it. Starks' 3 point shooting showed improvement, as well, but dipped his senior year - 25.7%, 36.7%, 41.7, and then 32.6%.
DSR: DSR's O rating steadily improved - 104.1, 120.6, and 122.3, then dipped to 111.7 his senior year. Again, DSR didn't have Starks anymore, and was the main option, a role he wasn't well suited for (notice his efficiency was much greater when Porter was on the team). His three point shooting has also improved 33.6%, 39.3%, 39.5%, and then dipped to 33% last year.
Trawick: Track's O ratings were 106.6, 95.8, 110.2, 109.5. His three point shooting steadily improved - 24%, 29,9%, 31.2%, 40.7%.
Aaron Bowen: Poor season in 2013 with 87.1 O rating junior year, 98.7 201 senior year, and 102.6 fifth year. Bowen was always a role player, but he did improve.
LJ Peak: Peak has steadily improved. Yes, he was highly ranked as a recruit, but his freshman season was a bit rough. His offensive efficiency was a mere 95.3, he only shot 45.7% on twos, and 23.6% on threes. He had a big jump last year, to 109.9 efficiency, 53.3% on twos, and 40.9% on threes. This year, his efficiency is slightly higher at 111.3, 52.9% on twos, and 33.7% on threes. So his threes have declined a bit, but he boosted his efficiency anyway by not only taking way more FT attempts, but making a much higher percentage (80.9% this year, versus 74.8% last year, and 70.1% freshman).
Marcus Derrickson: Derrickson had a good freshman season, and he actually is still having a pretty good sophomore year, and he's certainly a better player now. He's not perfect, but his shooting overall is better (despite a slightly lower three point percentage than last year). And his efficiency is up quite a bit from 104.5 to 112.4.
Jesse Govan: Like Derrickson, Govan has seen an improvement from last season, with higher efficiency, and overall slightly better shooting. He's fouling less than last season, but still way too much.
Stagnant Players / Players Who Didn't Improve Much if At All:
Mikael Hopkins: He barely played freshman year, though did okay. After that, he was pretty much a poor offensive player his entire career. He combined poor efficiency (82.7, 92.3, 92.9) with high usage. So offensively, he never improved. He did improve on defense, and his rebounding percentages got better every year. But he never improved his turnovers, which reached a career high at 28.2 TO rate his senior year.
Hollis Thompson: In some ways I feel bad putting him here, but it's only because Thompson was a pretty great offensive player his three years at Georgetown. He did improve substantially his sophomore year, and then declined a bit his junior year, but he was very good. I actually still think it's a shame he left early. Had he returned in 2013, that already good team with Porter would have probably been much better. If Cameron/Domingo are held out as bad evaluations by the staff of recruits, then I think this needs to be held out as a good evaluation.
Nate Lubick: Another favorite player HoyaTalk likes to dump on, but as an offensive player, he actually stayed extremely consistent in his four years. I think the biggest problem with Lubick was that his usage dropped off. He was efficient but shot so little given his playing time, that he wasn't a threat and opposing defenses really didn't have to worry about him. You can argue he regressed a bit his senior year, but overall his performance was fairly even over the years. It also hurt that he often played alongside Hopkins, who also wasn't a threat.
Whittington: Well, we all know how this ended. But, Whittington was largely the same player his freshman year and his limited run sophomore year. It's impossible to know what would have happened, but he's still shooting for the NBA (no pun intended).
Bradley Hayes: I am not really sure where to put him. He clearly improved in his senior season, and has massively regressed this year. So he got better, and then worse. It's really hard to know what to make of this. His FT percentage tanked this year and stands at 36.7%
Josh Smith: Smith actually improved quite a bit from his sophomore year at UCLA, despite the problems here. Though, once at Georgetown, he didn't improve much offensively, but he was already good. If he had the rest of his life in order and studied better, he probably would've been a much better player for us.
Kaleb Johnson: In limited playing time, Kaleb Johnson has posted similar numbers the last two years (though his shooting was better last year). Johnson was a fringe top 100 recruit. I see him as someone like Trawick who can easily improve his next two years.
Busts And/Or Transfers:
Rivers: Defensive specialist for us, who transferred to Indiana with virtually no improvement his junior year there, and a bit more his senior year, but he never was a good offensive player.
Macklin: After a pretty good freshman campaign, he bottomed out sophomore year. Then he transferred to Florida where he had an excellent junior year, and slightly worse senior year. He got drafted. But, Macklin basically admitted his attitude changed significantly after the transfer, "My freshman and sophomore years at Georgetown, I didn’t really cherish basketball that much, I just went out there and played. It’s very important to me now."
Wattad: Some slight improvement after his transfer to Chattanooga but he was never a big time player.
Mesheriakov: Hard to believe this guy ever started Big East games for us. He was bad at Georgetown, and didn't improve much at Wake Forest.
Vee Sanford: Sanford transferred to Dayton after having trouble getting playing time in front of Wright/Freeman/Clark. Sanford did okay at Dayton, but never better really than he did at Georgetown. And his performance actually declined his senior year under Archie Miller's tutelage.
Jerelle Benimon: Clearly, after doing poorly at Georgetown, Benimon took a huge step up after sitting out a year and playing for Towson. I still think his numbers were skewed by playing against CAA competition instead of the Big East, but no doubt he's a transfer success story.
Moses Ayegba: He was a project who never developed and his foul rates were always astronomically high. He transferred to Nebraska and actually got worse.
Reggie Cameron: The shooter who cannot shoot. He could be in the category above (no improvement), but I prefer this location because he really has never done much. Reggie Cameron actually got a fair amount of run his freshman season, but never could bring it together. He is a three point specialist who has shot 32.1%, 20.8%, 35.6%, and 30.8% from three. That just doesn't cut it. It's fair to say the staff probably mis-evaluated him.
Stephen Domingo: Like Cameron, a shooter who cannot shoot. Except he was even worse than Cameron. And after transferring to California, he is shooting 15.1% from three in 53 attempts with 75.5 efficiency this season. Ouch, that's truly awful. Again, a fair criticism of the staff for even recruiting him and having him enroll early.
Isaac Copeland: Copeland had a decent freshman season after sitting much of the first half of the season. He shot 38.9% from three overall, and O rating of 105.2. Sophomore year his O rating was actually quite similar at 104.8, though his three point shooting declined to 27.2%. Then, he really bottomed out this year, with a 85.9% O rating, and 0-10 on threes.
Clearly, Copeland didn't improve much from freshman to sophomore year, and he really bottomed out this year. And he never defended well. Now, you can blame the player, or blame the coach, but Copeland is a huge outlier for JT3's era. He is one of the few players who went from pretty good to horrible. It'll be interesting to see if he fares better at Nebraska. My sense is he probably returns to his freshman/sophomore form or slightly better but never gets close to the NBA.
Paul White: White wasn't a bust, he's only here because he transferred after a solid freshman season (though his Big East performance declined from earlier in the season), and then injury. We will see how he does at Oregon.
Tre Campbell: After a good freshman year, he's really done nothing.
Weird Situations:
Brandon Bolden: As you may recall, he was an early commit to Georgetown, did very little on court in his senior year of high school, barely played his freshman year, and then transferred to Kansas St., where he stopped playing after a career-ending wrist injury. Then he became a graduate transfer to Southern, where he was indefinitely suspended this fall and hasn't played since.
Too Early to Say: Jagan Mosely, Mulmore, Agau.
So in summary:
- We've had a handful of players who have substantially improved.
- A lot of players who have improved a good amount.
- Some players who have largely been stagnant and/or not developed.
- Some transfers who generally have not performed better after transferring, except Benimon and Macklin.
- A few busts.
I would add that pretty much all the top ranked recruits are the guys who improved substantially. We haven't had any top (top 30) ranked recruits who haven't improved except Copeland. The worst "misses" on recruiting relative to their ranking probably are Cameron, Lubick, Hopkins and Copeland. Most of the other guys who haven't done well were brought in as role players or projects.
And I will finish with Tyler Adams. It's too bad he had his health problem. He was actually the second-highest ranked recruit in the Porter class, and almost certainly would've forced Hopkins to the bench had he stayed healthy.
