2016-17 Season and outlook against BE and beyond

[eagle54]

There's a lot of divisiveness on the board currently for lots of reasons but let's stop and start to think positive.  Now that last season has ended, let's look to the next year where spring hopes eternal.  

I'm on both sides of many of these arguments and probably viewed on the negative side more than positive but I can say I go into every year very positive and only lose it once we show what we are and can't overcome it.  

Looking for views on whether we are looking at a rebuild year next year without a proper  roster construct which would be more of the same from this year or can we quickly put things in place (I like the JUCO recruit - sorry DFW but I understand your overall point) and find a way to compete and be in the top 4 in BE and a tournament team.  

[prhoya]

When is the last day for roster movements, transfers, testing the NBA waters, medical redshirt news, etc...?

[hoyalove4ever]

I predict that with the addition of Ricky Roe and Butch McRae, the 2016-2017 Hoyas will be unstoppable.

[kchoya]

Apr 7, 2016 23:19:03 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

There's a lot of divisiveness on the board currently for lots of reasons but let's stop and start to think positive.

It's so rich that you are making that statement.

[eagle54]

Apr 14, 2016 10:25:44 GMT -5 kchoya said:

Apr 7, 2016 23:19:03 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

There's a lot of divisiveness on the board currently for lots of reasons but let's stop and start to think positive.

It's so rich that you are making that statement.

I know it would have been much better coming from you but I waited...it never came.  

Keep up the good work, I know I speak for many in saying I really admire your insights.  

[KHoyaNYC]

I'll bite. I think we are another year away. There has been a lot of criticism heaped on DSR here but I believe the impact of his loss will be substantial. Based on this year's lack of in season development I think our roster has a long way to go before we are an NCAA lock. And who is leading next year's team? Peak? Copeland? Who will be the steady hand? In two years I think we'll be back in Top 25 territory but not next year.

[eagle54]

Apr 15, 2016 8:31:35 GMT -5 KHoyaNYC said:

I'll bite. I think we are another year away. There has been a lot of criticism heaped on DSR here but I believe the impact of his loss will be substantial. Based on this year's lack of in season development I think our roster has a long way to go before we are an NCAA lock. And who is leading next year's team? Peak? Copeland? Who will be the steady hand? In two years I think we'll be back in Top 25 territory but not next year.

A year away means the end of this regime.  If they can't turn it around this year to at least be an NCAA tournament team and be competitive in the BE then that's all we need to know.  The talent is there as we lost little from what we had going into last season and if they can't make it work than it's pretty clear what the issue is.  

[drquigley]

Apr 15, 2016 23:35:13 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

Apr 15, 2016 8:31:35 GMT -5 KHoyaNYC said:

I'll bite. I think we are another year away. There has been a lot of criticism heaped on DSR here but I believe the impact of his loss will be substantial. Based on this year's lack of in season development I think our roster has a long way to go before we are an NCAA lock. And who is leading next year's team? Peak? Copeland? Who will be the steady hand? In two years I think we'll be back in Top 25 territory but not next year.

A year away means the end of this regime.  If they can't turn it around this year to at least be an NCAA tournament team and be competitive in the BE then that's all we need to know.  The talent is there as we lost little from what we had going into last season and if they can't make it work than it's pretty clear what the issue is.  

"We lost little from what we had going into last year" We lost our leading scorer and go to guy at the end of games. We also lost our 7 foot center. Remind me of how we did last year after Hayes went down. I think we will be better next year but that assumption is based on a probably unrealistic belief that all our returning freshmen and sophomores will improve substantially both offensively AND DEFENSIVELY and one of our new guards turns out to be a true pg/playmaker.

[GIGAFAN99]

Apr 16, 2016 9:40:57 GMT -5 drquigley said:

Apr 15, 2016 23:35:13 GMT -5 eagle54 said:

A year away means the end of this regime.  If they can't turn it around this year to at least be an NCAA tournament team and be competitive in the BE then that's all we need to know.  The talent is there as we lost little from what we had going into last season and if they can't make it work than it's pretty clear what the issue is.  

"We lost little from what we had going into last year" We lost our leading scorer and go to guy at the end of games. We also lost our 7 foot center. Remind me of how we did last year after Hayes went down. I think we will be better next year but that assumption is based on a probably unrealistic belief that all our returning freshmen and sophomores will improve substantially both offensively AND DEFENSIVELY and one of our new guards turns out to be a true pg/playmaker.

eagle is right in this case. Seven RSCI top 100 recruits and the leading Juco scorer and only one senior. Any other team with that talent is thinking Sweet 16 this year and two years from a deep run. You can't cry injury, inexperience, and circumstance when you lose and then when you add White, Agau, and Mulmore to a maturing team not expect to win. It's a big prove it year and no amount of sandbagging changes that.

[aristides]

I have no idea what to expect from this team for the 2016-17 season. They could be as equally bad as this year or I could see them winning the conference.

A couple big "if's" for success next year will be if Govan can put up big numbers and if the Hoyas can get someone to play consistently well at the point. I'm usually too optimistic but I think the chances for a better season next year are strong. It's going to be a long offseason...

[SirSaxa]

Apr 16, 2016 10:23:44 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

eagle is right in this case. Seven RSCI top 100 recruits and the leading Juco scorer and only one senior. Any other team with that talent is thinking Sweet 16 this year and two years from a deep run. You can't cry injury, inexperience, and circumstance when you lose and then when you add White, Agau, and Mulmore to a maturing team not expect to win. It's a big prove it year and no amount of sandbagging changes that.

Agree with you Giga... and let's not forget Mosely - and quite possibly one more player - to be named later!

The big thing for me is far more effective coaching - off season development, pre-season schemes - especially on D, and solid in season and IN GAME coaching, strategizing, adjusting and MOTIVATING! Team needs to come out prepared and emotionally ready every game and at the start of every half.

[SirSaxa]

Apr 16, 2016 10:47:03 GMT -5 aristides said:

I have no idea what to expect from this team for the 2016-17 season. They could be as equally bad as this year or I could see them winning the conference.

A couple big "if's" for success next year will be if Govan can put up big numbers and if the Hoyas can get someone to play consistently well at the point. I'm usually too optimistic but I think the chances for a better season next year are strong. It's going to be a long offseason...

Aristedes, I apologize in advance if this comes off sounding like a wise guy, but last year was our worst season in 42 years. If we can't do better than that with 7 RSCI top 100 kids, we might as well just close this thing down.

I am optimistic too. But for the first time since JT3 arrived, I put the onus squarely on him to get things turned around ... in a major way and quickly.

[Deleted]

I don't know what a HS ranking has to do with anything tbh. How many ppg or rebounds does that HS rank get us?

Think it's more helpful to evaluate kids on what they are now, not their HS rank if your going to predict how our team will perform next year... We're prob in the 4-7 area regarding talent in this league as it stands today

[aristides]

Many of the minutes next year will go to the same players as it did this past season. We have to make a dangerous assumption that a year older equals better and/or that the new additions can get this team to play more cohesively. So I'm hopeful about improvement but I'm not taking it for granted.

It's interesting you fault JTIII for his in-season coaching. I think he was whipping that mule for all it was worth (to use John Thompson Jr.'s analogy). I lean towards that he blundered with talent evaluation and roster makeup. No doubt there will be a lot of pressure on him for the upcoming season.

[bamahoya11]

I think we will be better than this year, but how much is a great unknown. I think at this point we have to start thinking about what other teams would expect and see what we can expect out of our guys.

Frankly, I expect the sophomore class will have a solid junior year. They over performed in a lot of ways as freshmen, slumped as sophomores, and will probably be better as juniors. I think our season will turn on whether LJ Peak can develop into an elite college talent and whether he can get some help inside from Govan and Derrickson or Copeland. If Peak plays to his potential, I think we are a top 25 team. If he doesn't take that elite step, my guess is we hover outside the top 25 and are one of those maybe ncaa/maybe NIT teams.

I will say that I expect next year's team to make the tournament, and I expect to see us improve defensively and in our fouling rate. If we do those things, I'll accept where everything falls.

Also, for what it's worth, I think JTIII frequently does his best work when expectations are lowest. In my opinion he did his best work in 2011-12 when we had a young team that folks expected to be in the NIT at season's end. We ended up in the round of 32 a couple of baskets away from the sweet 16. For what it's worth, we also played in Maui that year as I recall. I expect this team to resemble that one.

[KHoyaNYC]

Apr 16, 2016 10:23:44 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Apr 16, 2016 9:40:57 GMT -5 drquigley said:

"We lost little from what we had going into last year" We lost our leading scorer and go to guy at the end of games. We also lost our 7 foot center. Remind me of how we did last year after Hayes went down. I think we will be better next year but that assumption is based on a probably unrealistic belief that all our returning freshmen and sophomores will improve substantially both offensively AND DEFENSIVELY and one of our new guards turns out to be a true pg/playmaker.

eagle is right in this case. Seven RSCI top 100 recruits and the leading Juco scorer and only one senior. Any other team with that talent is thinking Sweet 16 this year and two years from a deep run. You can't cry injury, inexperience, and circumstance when you lose and then when you add White, Agau, and Mulmore to a maturing team not expect to win. It's a big prove it year and no amount of sandbagging changes that.

I don't put much stock into high school rankings vs. what I saw on the court this year. And what I saw on the court this year, with a few notable exceptions, is a team that needs to improve significantly to be sniffing anywhere near the Sweet 16. Is it possible? Sure. Probable? No. And I am very worried about the lack of leadership on this team. Will Peak be that guy? I don't know. And I wouldn't pin my hopes on a JUCO transfer filling that role either. So, to me, we have a ton of question marks that don't make me feel very confident we're about to make a deep NCAA run.

[GIGAFAN99]

Khoya, you could be right AND eagle could be right as well. This team is not only comprised of players considered talented out of HS but players considered talented that were hand-picked by the staff. If they can't succeed, it's not going to be seen as bad luck. It would be seen as a massive failure to either identify or develop talent (which is not wrong).

When you're the highest-paid coach in the league and the 2nd-highest paid guy won a national championship with zero NBA players the year AFTER losing a 2nd-team All-American, it's really hard to keep asking for mulligans.

[drquigley]

I agree that we have to think about Leadership. Who will be the leader of this team next year? No way the incoming players can be expected to assume team leadership. And I don't see any of the returning sophs and juniors with that leadership quality. Maybe, just maybe, a year on the bench may have prepared Paul White to be that guy. Comments?

[bicentennial]

Best bets are Peak and White but perhaps Copeland could be the guy. Its also possible the JUCO transfer Mulmore could be a leader. While its hard to think they would be accepted as the leader, the other needs are defensive stoppers who don't stall the offense and it is very possible we have a few of those next year. Finally just having the whole squad healthy would be a big plus!

[drquigley]

Apr 16, 2016 19:54:58 GMT -5 bicentennial said:

Best bets are Peak and White but perhaps Copeland could be the guy. Its also possible the JUCO transfer Mulmore could be a leader. While its hard to think they would be accepted as the leader, the other needs are defensive stoppers who don't stall the offense and it is very possible we have a few of those next year. Finally just having the whole squad healthy would be a big plus!

No way LJ will be a team leader. Same with Ike. Need someone completely sure of his game who can see the court and focus on making everyone else better. I hate to refer to a Nova payer but Archidiacano in my mind is the archetype (no pun intended). Not since Jon Wallace have we had anyone even close. If Otto had stayed he could have grown into that role. I really believe that unless and until we find "that guy" we will struggle.