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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 23, 2016 13:00:02 GMT -5
Wojo, Archie Miller, Bob McKillop, Chris Collins, and then I am sure there are plenty of capable assistants looking for a chance. I pay little attention to coaches but these guys along with Chris Mack & Holtman would all be on my initial list.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 23, 2016 13:15:02 GMT -5
Wojo, Archie Miller, Bob McKillop, Chris Collins, and then I am sure there are plenty of capable assistants looking for a chance. I pay little attention to coaches but these guys along with Chris Mack & Holtman would all be on my initial list. Why would Chris Mack leave Xavier for Georgetown? He's essentially got ultimate job security and assuming Xavier does well this post-season, he will instantly be among the top-level talent for the prime coaching jobs (like Indiana, etc.). If he was willing to leave, I think he'd be a good choice, but that's a huge if. As far as Holtmann, you do realize Butler is also 7-8 in the Big East and might miss the tournament? I am not sure what evidence is out there showing that Holtmann is better than JT3, and you're also making a big assumption that he'd leave Butler after only two seasons - also highly unlikely I think. Wojo just signed an extension at Marquette and he's only two years in. Marquette also has the resources to pay him well, there's no reason he would leave for Georgetown now. Also, it's too early to tell, but it's not like Wojo's teams are on a huge upswing. Do I think he'll improve his team's performance? Definitely, but he's still unproven. Chris Collins is much like Wojo. His teams also haven't done well. 6-12, 6-12, and 4-8 (so far this season) in conference play. I realize that you have to give somebody a chance to get on their feet, but again, if we got someone like Wojo or Collins, we'd probably be looking at at least a 2-3 year span with similar records. Bob McKillop? Really? The guy is 65 (going on 66), has coached at Davidson for 25 years, and their court is named after him. I find it hard to believe he's going anywhere. Moreover, his record of getting to the the post-season isn't that great (certainly worse than JT3's). Even if he wanted to come, I don't see why you would hire a 65 year old to coach our team. By the time he had a chance to establish himself, he might be retired. Archie Miller, I'll grant you as a good possible choice - he'd probably be on the top of any replacement list for Georgetown, but also a lot of other teams.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Feb 23, 2016 13:16:56 GMT -5
To me the debate gets too broad, top 15 or being like KU or UK or Duke just muddles the discussion of what's truly possible for G'town basketball now.. My expectations are for G'town to be at least a top 4 team in the Big East every year.. Who among us fans think that's unrealistic? If the program does that the rankings & the NCAA bids will come.. Right now Villanova has clearly established itself as the top school in the BE and Xavier has staked a claim for #2.. Can G'town be that solid 3rd or is that too much to ask? Wow! Now we're going to accpet being the solid 3rd in the NBE??? Are we resigned to be third fiddle to Villanova and another team?? How far have we dropped as a program! I thought we were the face of the NBE or one of them. Being considered the 3rd best team in the conference would mean that the program has the chance to compete for league titles each year.. Being 3rd would mean NCAA bids each year also.. Not sure how that would be a bad thing.. Having said that I'd love for Gtown to be number one but realistically you have to crawl before you walk and walk before you run..
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 23, 2016 13:18:13 GMT -5
From who? Syracuse coaches who were trying to jump on him? I have talked to myriad people with knowledge who say that Jeff was a rock-solid commit at all times. People related to the Athletics department. Obviously we heard different things. In any event, he signed the LOI, and we would have had to let him out. I really do not believe that Jeff was going to sit out for year.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 23, 2016 13:25:36 GMT -5
2003, agree with you on most but just throwing names out. You have to analyze the situation as well. Northwestern has never been to the NCAA. Collins is doing well in a bad situation. It is easy to shoot down guys but what was JTIII's record at princeton prior to coming to Gtown? He had a 68-42 record with a strong last year. He won or tied for Ivy titles in three of four years. He made two out of four tourneys and never advanced.
I am sure there are guys with like resumes, similar recruiting connections (or efforts), and different styles that are more up to date with how basketball is played and officiated now a days out there.
I don't think we could even get an Archie Miller to be honest with you. I am not at the point of, "I'll take anybody", but it can't be too hard to find some diamond in the rough types. Schools like Butler & Xavier have done it over and over again. They have never gotten the big name hire either.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 23, 2016 13:34:01 GMT -5
2003, agree with you on most but just throwing names out. You have to analyze the situation as well. Northwestern has never been to the NCAA. Collins is doing well in a bad situation. It is easy to shoot down guys but what was JTIII's record at princeton prior to coming to Gtown? He had a 68-42 record with a strong last year. He won or tied for Ivy titles in three of four years. He made two out of four tourneys and never advanced. I am sure there are guys with like resumes, similar recruiting connections (or efforts), and different styles that are more up to date with how basketball is played and officiated now a days out there. I don't think we could even get an Archie Miller to be honest with you. I am not at the point of, "I'll take anybody", but it can't be too hard to find some diamond in the rough types. Schools like Butler & Xavier have done it over and over again. They have never gotten the big name hire either. I agree with you that the situation matters; theoretically somebody like Miller who has excelled in the A-10 could do better at Georgetown, along with other coaches. The problem with finding a "diamond in the rough" is exactly that - it's not easy to find coaches that are unproven but will have success. For every Chris Mack that's out there, there are many others who simply don't succeed (Leitao, as an example). I am not saying it's impossible to find someone who would succeed at Georgetown. But, I think that many folks overestimate the appeal of our coaching job, as well. As you note, I don't think we would necessarily have a chance at an Archie Miller type. And, for those that care, Georgetown isn't going to throw $3 million at another coach not named Thompson, and they certainly will not throw that kind of money at a diamond in the rough. Also, what would it say to other potential coaches about the Georgetown coaching role if the school went ahead and fired John Thompson III? If it were to happen now - when JT3's record of success is actually pretty good - it would essentially tell other coaches that unless they have massive success, they will get canned. Plus, it would alienate the Thompsons and all the alumni associated with the Thompsons. Do not misinterpret this. I don't think JT3 has or should have life tenure. But, I think that the ramifications of going in another direction are significantly greater than is often appreciated my many who post on HoyaTalk. Personally, I don't think we are at that point now. But, I know many others disagree.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 23, 2016 14:02:15 GMT -5
What programs are in the top 15 yearly? Seriously, that's your expectation? Think about that. You'd be disappointed in the program if we were ranked in the top 15 for two straight years (getting a 1-4 seed) and then the next year we're a top 25 team (getting a 6 seed)? If that would be disappointing to you, well, you're going to be disappointed an awful lot! And we can go ahead and include "his overall record in making the NCAA Tournament." That's my main measuring stick, by the way. It's 8 out of 12 (that's conceding this year and including his first year). That's pretty damned good! I believe there's only 2 teams in the ACC with more in that time span. (I think probably only Nova and X have more in ours.) Obviously, things don't look as good if you look at the last three years (including this one). I can't stop anyone from caring about the ROI thing, but I still think it's silly. There's a reason that during games they show standings in the conference, and the Top 25, and things like that on the broadcast. They don't then normalize those numbers accounting for coaching salary. All that matters, ultimately, is the performance on the court. Ours this year stinks. More to the point, basically no one is worth $3M if your expectations are as you state them. Here are the guys making between $2.5M and $3.5M (of those that made the NCAAT tournament last year): Scott Drew, Travis Ford, Rick Barnes, Steve Alford, Lon Kruger, Jay Wright, III, Bo Ryan, Crean, Huggins, Matta, Sean Miller. Would any of them have met your stated expectations? Maybe one or two? Barnes has since been canned, which is one name in your favor. But I don't believe anyone else has been. Unless your last name starts with a K, or you "compensate" players in various ways to come to your school located in the Commonwealth of Kentucky, basically no one is worth that much! I changed my original point to Top 25 some time ago, but the rest still stands. And, I have been disappointed a lot, esp. with three Villanova neighbors. I believe we could and should be an elite program. Now that we know we can pay job compensation as the 8th out of 351 colleges, as big as state schools with great budgets, then the school, the current students, alumni and fans deserve better. If your point is "we should be satisfied with the product", then O.K. but don't pay as a top school. Given his overall performance, do you think JT3 could earn $3M at another school? I'm not satisfied. And, no, I don't think III could earn 3M at another school. So what? I'm just saying that your expectations (80% NCAA bids and a top 25 ranking every year) necessarily mean that you will be cycling through coaches constantly. Again: of those $3M coaches, you would be disappointed with essentially all of them. It's a classic "good to great" issue. I am and would be satisfied with what I view as "good" with "good" being my ticket to the ocassional "great." You would give up good for a chance at great -- continually if necessary and at the distinct risk of being bad. Right? That's OK. I just want to be sure you fully understand the risk. Now.....there is no argument from me that we are not even "good" over the past three years overall.
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Post by guru on Feb 23, 2016 14:37:56 GMT -5
Given its conference and its outlook, this program is much closer to irrelevance than it ever was under Craig Esherick. It's as amazing as it is depressing that the program has been steered to this point, and there's no light at the end of this tunnel. It's time to move away from the ledge. First, the program WAS irrelevant under Craig Esherick. In 2004, when he left, Georgetown was ranked 139 of all Division I teams. As a reference point, Marquette is currently 100, DePaul is 193, and St. John's is 229. Esherick made the NCAA tournament once out of 5 tries, and he basically had a golden path through a 15 seed to the Sweet 16. Clearly, Georgetown has underperformed. My opinion is that the best remedy is to continue getting to the NCAA tournament with good seeds, and we'll break through. Most coaches are incapable of doing that. I realize the last three years have been less than stellar, but it's also silly to take the last three years while ignoring what came beforehand (and I am not even arguing to go back to 2007). So, what's your solution? Who are you going to hire? Any JT3 replacement would surely make less money, so I bet that would make many of you happy for some inexplicable reason. We have been over this many, many times. You do not fire someone without having a good idea of who is going to replace the coach. I have yet to see any realistic names that are proven coaches that get teams into the NCAA tournament every year. Now, if you want to take a risk and go for an unproven younger coach like Wojo, who is unlikely to stay with the team if he has any success, that's at least a position. But, the pie in the sky, "For $3 million we can get a great coach" assertion that's often thrown out here makes no sense. Anybody making a lot of money now is unlikely to leave their current job for Georgetown (see Gregg Marshall). And somebody like Tommy Amaker did poorly at both Seton Hall and Michigan, so even though he's had some success at Harvard, there's no reason to think he'd do great at Georgetown. In sports, things are rarely as good as they seem when things go well or bad as they feel when things go poorly. I really think a lot of fans are having an emotional reaction because they are not used to seeing us lose - and why? Because of the success we've had the last 10 years. If Craig Esherick was still at the helm, this sort of losing would probably be considered a quality season. Just so you know, according to RPI wizard, if we lose out the season (a very real possibility) we end up at 122. Even if we somehow win a game in NYC - which will only happen if we draw St. John's and even then who knows - we end the season below 100 in the RPI rankings. That's Esherickian. No denying it.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 23, 2016 14:40:28 GMT -5
I changed my original point to Top 25 some time ago, but the rest still stands. And, I have been disappointed a lot, esp. with three Villanova neighbors. I believe we could and should be an elite program. Now that we know we can pay job compensation as the 8th out of 351 colleges, as big as state schools with great budgets, then the school, the current students, alumni and fans deserve better. If your point is "we should be satisfied with the product", then O.K. but don't pay as a top school. Given his overall performance, do you think JT3 could earn $3M at another school? I'm not satisfied. And, no, I don't think III could earn 3M at another school. So what? I'm just saying that your expectations (80% NCAA bids and a top 25 ranking every year) necessarily mean that you will be cycling through coaches constantly. Because virtually no one can meet them. Again: of those $3M coaches, you would be disappointed with essentially all of them. So why should he get it at GU? At some point, he has to be held accountable. No, it wouldn't mean that, esp. with a watered down version of the BE. In fact, a good coach and recruiter could be a perennial Top 25 with the NBE competition right now. Villanova is very beatable and they are running awaynwith the NBE. Does Jay Wright not meet them? I don't have the time to look through the others' records, but if you can put it together it would be very interesting to look it over. Wow! We're in fine off-season form.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 23, 2016 14:50:29 GMT -5
Villanova is very beatable? They are the top team in the country.
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Post by prhoya on Feb 23, 2016 14:54:46 GMT -5
Villanova is very beatable? They are the top team in the country. Yes, exactly my point: because they play in the NBE. Heck, Xavier could be a #1 in the tournament. CB is wide open this year. Have you seen the see-saws in the rankings this season?
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 23, 2016 14:57:11 GMT -5
Butler coaches: Holtman, Miller, Stevens, Lickliter, Matta, Collier. Of those six, only Miller was a bust and that sounded like they didn't do their research. That is a pretty good track record for one school.
Xavier coaches: Mack, Sean Miller, Matta, Skip Prosser, Pete Gillen. All are home runs based on their success at Xavier and just like Butler, all moved on to greener pastures when these two programs were not getting the highest level of TV money.
That is two institutions that have figured out how to cultivate coaches and it should be researched by the current AD. I am just saying.
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 23, 2016 15:02:21 GMT -5
Butler coaches: Holtman, Miller, Stevens, Lickliter, Matta, Collier. Of those six, only Miller was a bust and that sounded like they didn't do their research. That is a pretty good track record for one school. Xavier coaches: Mack, Sean Miller, Matta, Skip Prosser, Pete Gillen. All are home runs based on their success at Xavier and just like Butler, all moved on to greener pastures when these two programs were not getting the highest level of TV money. That is two institutions that have figured out how to cultivate coaches and it should be researched by the current AD. I am just saying. Those two institutions are also known as a strong stepping stone to a higher-profile opportunity. Any "diamond in the rough" that you find need to be paid or else they will go elsewhere to shine once they find success.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 23, 2016 15:10:42 GMT -5
I'm not satisfied. And, no, I don't think III could earn 3M at another school. So what? I'm just saying that your expectations (80% NCAA bids and a top 25 ranking every year) necessarily mean that you will be cycling through coaches constantly. Because virtually no one can meet them. Again: of those $3M coaches, you would be disappointed with essentially all of them. So why should he get it at GU? At some point, he has to be held accountable. No, it wouldn't mean that, esp. with a watered down version of the BE. In fact, a good coach and recruiter could be a perennial Top 25 with the NBE competition right now. Villanova is very beatable and they are running awaynwith the NBE. Does Jay Wright not meet them? I don't have the time to look through the others' records, but if you can put it together it would be very interesting to look it over. Wow! We're in fine off-season form. Wright comes closest of everyone on the list (they weren't ranked at any point of the season they finished below .500 (2012?)). I dont believe anyone else on that list that is currently coaching does! Some have had much better postseason success, but none have been in the top 25 at some point every year during III's tenure (or their tenure at their current school if less) and been in the tourney 80% of the time. Why should III get 3M? For the same reason all of the guys on that list do. They had a season or seasons of success that outstripped whatever they had been paid. It is, as it is for everyone in MBB, based entirely on the past. The only measure of accountability anyone has in this sport is to can the coach. That is how it works. Me? I just want results. Given the way pay works in the sport, I don't change the results I want based on the pay. That doesn't make any sense to me.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 23, 2016 15:24:28 GMT -5
Butler coaches: Holtman, Miller, Stevens, Lickliter, Matta, Collier. Of those six, only Miller was a bust and that sounded like they didn't do their research. That is a pretty good track record for one school. Xavier coaches: Mack, Sean Miller, Matta, Skip Prosser, Pete Gillen. All are home runs based on their success at Xavier and just like Butler, all moved on to greener pastures when these two programs were not getting the highest level of TV money. That is two institutions that have figured out how to cultivate coaches and it should be researched by the current AD. I am just saying. Those two institutions are also known as a strong stepping stone to a higher-profile opportunity. Any "diamond in the rough" that you find need to be paid or else they will go elsewhere to shine once they find success. Since our last coach not related to the Thompson Family business was pre-1972, we cannot say if GU is a stepping stone or not. At $3M, I would guess "no", unless the coach was approached by a pro team and that was the coach's dream.
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Post by professorhoya on Feb 23, 2016 15:28:50 GMT -5
Butler coaches: Holtman, Miller, Stevens, Lickliter, Matta, Collier. Of those six, only Miller was a bust and that sounded like they didn't do their research. That is a pretty good track record for one school. Xavier coaches: Mack, Sean Miller, Matta, Skip Prosser, Pete Gillen. All are home runs based on their success at Xavier and just like Butler, all moved on to greener pastures when these two programs were not getting the highest level of TV money. That is two institutions that have figured out how to cultivate coaches and it should be researched by the current AD. I am just saying. The thing about Butler is that Barry Collier is basically the head man/AD and the Butler Way is just the Collier Way. They run his system and he's still in control.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 23, 2016 15:31:50 GMT -5
So why should he get it at GU? At some point, he has to be held accountable. No, it wouldn't mean that, esp. with a watered down version of the BE. In fact, a good coach and recruiter could be a perennial Top 25 with the NBE competition right now. Villanova is very beatable and they are running awaynwith the NBE. Does Jay Wright not meet them? I don't have the time to look through the others' records, but if you can put it together it would be very interesting to look it over. Wow! We're in fine off-season form. Wright comes closest of everyone on the list (they weren't ranked at any point of the season they finished below .500 (2012?)). I dont believe anyone else on that list that is currently coaching does! Some have had much better postseason success, but none have been in the top 25 at some point every year during III's tenure (or their tenure at their current school if less) and been in the tourney 80% of the time. Why should III get 3M? For the same reason all of the guys on that list do. They had a season or seasons of success that outstripped whatever they had been paid. It is, as it is for everyone in MBB, based entirely on the past. The only measure of accountability anyone has in this sport is to can the coach. That is how it works. Me? I just want results. Given the way pay works in the sport, I don't change the results I want based on the pay. That doesn't make any sense to me. I would like to know for a fact, but don't have the time for the research & comparison. As to the $3M, how much was he paid for his first GU contract, when was the extension and for how long, and what was the $ bump? Again, research. We would also need to compare the schools and their budgets. Or, was it JT3 pushing for his son to have that Top 8 salary?
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Post by williambraskyiii on Feb 23, 2016 15:37:24 GMT -5
It's time to move away from the ledge. First, the program WAS irrelevant under Craig Esherick. In 2004, when he left, Georgetown was ranked 139 of all Division I teams. As a reference point, Marquette is currently 100, DePaul is 193, and St. John's is 229. Esherick made the NCAA tournament once out of 5 tries, and he basically had a golden path through a 15 seed to the Sweet 16. Clearly, Georgetown has underperformed. My opinion is that the best remedy is to continue getting to the NCAA tournament with good seeds, and we'll break through. Most coaches are incapable of doing that. I realize the last three years have been less than stellar, but it's also silly to take the last three years while ignoring what came beforehand (and I am not even arguing to go back to 2007). So, what's your solution? Who are you going to hire? Any JT3 replacement would surely make less money, so I bet that would make many of you happy for some inexplicable reason. We have been over this many, many times. You do not fire someone without having a good idea of who is going to replace the coach. I have yet to see any realistic names that are proven coaches that get teams into the NCAA tournament every year. Now, if you want to take a risk and go for an unproven younger coach like Wojo, who is unlikely to stay with the team if he has any success, that's at least a position. But, the pie in the sky, "For $3 million we can get a great coach" assertion that's often thrown out here makes no sense. Anybody making a lot of money now is unlikely to leave their current job for Georgetown (see Gregg Marshall). And somebody like Tommy Amaker did poorly at both Seton Hall and Michigan, so even though he's had some success at Harvard, there's no reason to think he'd do great at Georgetown. In sports, things are rarely as good as they seem when things go well or bad as they feel when things go poorly. I really think a lot of fans are having an emotional reaction because they are not used to seeing us lose - and why? Because of the success we've had the last 10 years. If Craig Esherick was still at the helm, this sort of losing would probably be considered a quality season. Just so you know, according to RPI wizard, if we lose out the season (a very real possibility) we end up at 122. Even if we somehow win a game in NYC - which will only happen if we draw St. John's and even then who knows - we end the season below 100 in the RPI rankings. That's Esherickian. No denying it. Look dude - I'm with you on the negativity train like 90% of the time, but to compare the program today to the final throes of a moribund program under Esherick detracts from whatever point about III you are trying to make. CBB-wide, it was concluded that GU had seen its brightest days and was headed toward total irrelevance under Esherick - and we were still in a power conference too. We have the imminent unveiling of a state-of-the-art practice facility, a strong returning core (absent any early defections), and a staff that has shown the ability to recruit. We also have recent and recurring regular season success. What we need to see from III over the next 3 or so years (there is just zero likelihood that he has less than 3 more years) is continued success on the recruiting trail and, for the love of John Carroll, some evidence that he is adjusting/tweaking/modifying his game plan, both on offense and defense, to address 1) clear-as-day diminishing returns on whatever princeton principles crap he is half-heartedly trotting out on the court each game; and 2) the fundamental deficiencies in the way he is teaching defense. I think what is most soul-crushing to GU fans is you see the same, tired nonsense every damn game and, frankly, it is painful to watch. The product is just so putrid, wins/losses aside.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 23, 2016 16:00:32 GMT -5
'13 990 shows JTIII at 3.06mm. '12 at 2.8, '11 at 2.6. You get the point. Looks like solid bumps per year so wouldn't be surprised if all in he is at 3.4. My guess when he came over was he was at 1.6.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 23, 2016 16:36:31 GMT -5
'13 990 shows JTIII at 3.06mm. '12 at 2.8, '11 at 2.6. You get the point. Looks like solid bumps per year so wouldn't be surprised if all in he is at 3.4. My guess when he came over was he was at 1.6. For the 2005 tax year, John Thompson III made just under $400,000. He only got a large pay raise after making the Sweet 16 and Final Four in 2007.
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