sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Jan 26, 2016 21:48:31 GMT -5
I mean, is it at all possible you are all putting too much emphasis on RPI? I mean, our RPI is being killed by the first game of the season and a bad week in December. IF, by some act of God, we did end up going 12-6 in the Big East, is the committee really going weight, what would have to be if we did it, major wins over top ten teams in Feb/March equally to terrible losses in Nov/Dec? Yes, our RPI won't be strong at all, but if we DID go 12-6 or even 11-7 really, looking at the big picture, we would certainly be a team deserving of an NCAA bid.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 26, 2016 21:50:35 GMT -5
RPI down to 67 (thanks Wisconsin!).
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Jan 26, 2016 21:52:54 GMT -5
Here's where the range of RPIForecast forecasts are as of today: Final Record Expected RPI Probability 22-9 22.2 0.13% 21-10 28.1 0.89% 20-11 35.1 4.04% 19-12 44.8 11.66% 18-13 55.8 21.21%17-14 67.8 25.73% 16-15 79.9 21.13% 15-16 92.8 11.07% 14-17 107.0 3.64% 13-18 121.1 0.49% The bold are the two scenarios we throw around the most, though based on the current predictors, 17-14 (10-8 in the BE) is the most likely, and 16-15/9-9 is about as likely as 18-13/11-7. You can see the expected RPIs for the time being. If you run it through the RPI Wizard and put in specific results 7-4 (19-12/12-6) with W's in the 7 games with the best odds (SJU, SHU, PC, CREI, @mu, BUT, @shu) gives us an RPI of 43 entering the BET. Let's say that's the 4 seed, and our first game is against Butler. A win there and a loss to Nova in the SFs gives us an RPI of 37. A loss to Butler and it's 47. 6-5 (18-13/11-7) with the above 7 wins minus @shu gives us a pre-BET RPI of 51. Let's say that's the 5 seed for simplicity's sake. W over Butler and loss to Nova is 47, loss to Butler is 54. In those generic scenarios...I mean, 47 would be the definition of a bubble team. So to be "safe", I think you'd want 12-6 and a BET win or 11-7 and two BET wins. Tough order. RPI ain't never stepped on a court. We sucked tonight, but our RPI will jump
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 26, 2016 21:56:17 GMT -5
6-2 in BE with 10 left. Finish 6-4 and we are in.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 26, 2016 21:58:05 GMT -5
6-2 in BE with 10 left. Finish 6-4 and we are in. Yup. If we get to 19 wins, we are in. Six more wins in the regular season / BET punches the ticket.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 26, 2016 22:05:16 GMT -5
I mean, is it at all possible you are all putting too much emphasis on RPI? I mean, our RPI is being killed by the first game of the season and a bad week in December. IF, by some act of God, we did end up going 12-6 in the Big East, is the committee really going weight, what would have to be if we did it, major wins over top ten teams in Feb/March equally to terrible losses in Nov/Dec? Yes, our RPI won't be strong at all, but if we DID go 12-6 or even 11-7 really, looking at the big picture, we would certainly be a team deserving of an NCAA bid. Yeah, I think the reason our RPI is low/would be low is because we don't project like 12-6 or 11-7 team. That makes sense. But, yeah, if you step away from that and think about a team that finishes in the top 4 of a major conference, wins 4-6 top 50 games and has a top 20 SOS, that team is making the tournament.
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Post by goyahoya69 on Jan 27, 2016 10:17:46 GMT -5
fwiw, the ncaa committee seems to reallllly like us. despite the poor matchups they've given us in the past, they have usually slightly overranked us in the final seedings. at least in opinion. so i see no reason to think they wouldnt reward us again for playing a tough schedule. we just need to be sure that when all is said and done, that we played well in the 8 games against top 25 teams WITHIN our conference (2 games vs butler, xavier, nova, and prov).
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 27, 2016 10:33:57 GMT -5
I posted this in the game thread, but we currently only have 4 games left against top 50 teams. There's a distinct possibility that none of Butler, Seton Hall or Syracuse end up in the top 50, so every win against Nova/Xavier/PC that we can get is gold.
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ksf42001
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Post by ksf42001 on Jan 27, 2016 12:30:36 GMT -5
fwiw, the ncaa committee seems to reallllly like us. despite the poor matchups they've given us in the past, they have usually slightly overranked us in the final seedings. at least in opinion. so i see no reason to think they wouldnt reward us again for playing a tough schedule. we just need to be sure that when all is said and done, that we played well in the 8 games against top 25 teams WITHIN our conference (2 games vs butler, xavier, nova, and prov). My only issue with this opinion is that a large portion of us being "overranked" was because the committee has always liked that we always had a good number of good wins and very few bad losses, which isn't really the case this year. Also, those previous bad losses were the South Florida conference game type losses, which seem to be considered "better" than nonconference losses to comparable level teams. For example, a loss to St John's would statistically be our worst loss this year, but most would still consider Radford worse...
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Jan 27, 2016 13:36:42 GMT -5
Our next 3 are Providence, butler, @seton Hall. If we can manage to take two out of those 3, we'll be 15-9 (8-3 BE) and second (or--at worst--third) in the conference, heading into our home game against St. John's. That will keep us well on the right side of the bubble, and would bump our KenPom projection to 19-12 (12-6), at least.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 27, 2016 23:51:38 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think that if we are going to get into the NCAA tournament with 19 wins, we have to win against St. John's and at Marquette. St. John's would be our worst lost of the year RPI-wise, and as much as I think Marquette is good enough to beat us in Milwaukee (can't wait to see what new tricks the refs pull there), we can't afford another loss to a team outside the top 100 of the RPI, and they don't really seem like they're going to move up the 20 or so spots they'll need to in order to get inside the top 100. I mean, Stetson is the 7th (!) team outside the top 200 in the RPI that they've played in the non-conference. Their schedule is pathetic.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 29, 2016 10:43:49 GMT -5
Just to put into perspective where we stand right now, as of this morning, we are the fourth team out in Jerry Palm's projections. Before the Creighton win, Lunardi had us as the seventh out.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 29, 2016 11:47:02 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think that if we are going to get into the NCAA tournament with 19 wins, we have to win against St. John's and at Marquette. St. John's would be our worst lost of the year RPI-wise, and as much as I think Marquette is good enough to beat us in Milwaukee (can't wait to see what new tricks the refs pull there), we can't afford another loss to a team outside the top 100 of the RPI, and they don't really seem like they're going to move up the 20 or so spots they'll need to in order to get inside the top 100. I mean, Stetson is the 7th (!) team outside the top 200 in the RPI that they've played in the non-conference. Their schedule is pathetic. I dont know, I still think losing at Marquette is defensible. That's another team that RPI doesnt say a lot about. A big reason their RPI so bad is because they've just beaten some really horrible OOC teams. That will hurt them with the Committee for sure, but it's not so bad for us to lose to a team that beat Providence on the road, and has wins against Arizona St, LSU and Wisconsin. They will also have plenty of other chances to beat decent teams, much as we do. Plus, the eye test to me is that Marquette isnt that bad of a team. SJU, on the other hand, if we lose that game, we probably dont deserve to go to the tournament.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Jan 29, 2016 12:51:32 GMT -5
The highest RPI teams ever to get an NCAA bid were in the mid 60s RPI. Typically, though, you need to be below 55 to receive serious consideration as a bubble team. Currently, we are in the low 70s.
We barely squeaked by a current non-tourney team at home this week. Our position remains tenuous.
A win Saturday against Providence would probably put is "in" on a real-time basis, with more wins to amass.
As I look ahead, the season probably boils down to the 4 upcoming games against SH and Butler. They really are our most direct competition for an NCAA bid. They are both just ahead of us in the RPI and all 3 teams will likely battle it out for 4th place in BE. Finishing a game clear of them in the BE standings would be hard to ignore. Going 3-1 against them would be a very decisive statement to the committee. If we go 3-1 against them, and beat SJU and Marquette, then we hit the 11-7 mark and we will be right there in any bubble discussion. A win against Providence would do wonders, obviously.
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Post by professorhoya on Jan 29, 2016 13:00:10 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think that if we are going to get into the NCAA tournament with 19 wins, we have to win against St. John's and at Marquette. St. John's would be our worst lost of the year RPI-wise, and as much as I think Marquette is good enough to beat us in Milwaukee (can't wait to see what new tricks the refs pull there), we can't afford another loss to a team outside the top 100 of the RPI, and they don't really seem like they're going to move up the 20 or so spots they'll need to in order to get inside the top 100. I mean, Stetson is the 7th (!) team outside the top 200 in the RPI that they've played in the non-conference. Their schedule is pathetic. Yeah, I just posted the same thing in the games of interest thread but we absolutely cannot lose to St. John's (rpi 212) or Marquette (rpi 124). Obviously the season is over if we lose to St. Johns at home but that is probably unlikely. Losing to Marquette away could happen so that is really the key game of our season. We really have to win that game.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Jan 29, 2016 13:06:57 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think that if we are going to get into the NCAA tournament with 19 wins, we have to win against St. John's and at Marquette. St. John's would be our worst lost of the year RPI-wise, and as much as I think Marquette is good enough to beat us in Milwaukee (can't wait to see what new tricks the refs pull there), we can't afford another loss to a team outside the top 100 of the RPI, and they don't really seem like they're going to move up the 20 or so spots they'll need to in order to get inside the top 100. I mean, Stetson is the 7th (!) team outside the top 200 in the RPI that they've played in the non-conference. Their schedule is pathetic. I dont know, I still think losing at Marquette is defensible. That's another team that RPI doesnt say a lot about. A big reason their RPI so bad is because they've just beaten some really horrible OOC teams. That will hurt them with the Committee for sure, but it's not so bad for us to lose to a team that beat Providence on the road, and has wins against Arizona St, LSU and Wisconsin. They will also have plenty of other chances to beat decent teams, much as we do. Plus, the eye test to me is that Marquette isnt that bad of a team. SJU, on the other hand, if we lose that game, we probably dont deserve to go to the tournament. I agree with you that RPI is not a great way to evaluate the quality of Marquette's team (although they are roughly the same in KenPom and in RPI), and that a loss at Marquette doesn't saying anything about whether we "deserve" a berth, but the problem is that (i) the committee isn't going to drill down to explain away a loss outside the top 100 in the RPI when we have two other losses outside the top 100 in the RPI--they're just going to note that we have three bad losses (and that's assuming Creighton stays inside the top 100 in the RPI); and (ii) a loss to a team outside the top 100 is going to kill our own RPI, which is going to be shaky even if we beat Marquette.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Jan 29, 2016 13:21:36 GMT -5
Numbers aside, it really seems the perception of the "bad losses" this year is hurting the Hoyas. I really think we need 2 of the 4 games against Prov, X and Nova to offset that perception a little bit, with Saturday's game as the best chance for a W. Over the years it seems the committee will overlook bad losses if there are some high level wins. We obviously have 1 with the road win against X and Cuse and Wisconsin playing better of late make those wins shine a little brighter. And really the only bad losses IMO are Radford and Asheville. The Monmouth loss isn't terrible given the year they are having, although losing handily wasn't ideal.
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Post by trillesthoya on Jan 29, 2016 13:35:26 GMT -5
espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14666655/weekend-homework-breaking-big-12-sec-challenge-matchupsI hate ESPN as much as the next person, but this makes a good point. "The Hoyas' jubilance after Tuesday's win over Creighton was remarkable to see. Granted, it was a close (74-73) game, but still: If in October you'd said that Georgetown would be that happy to beat Creighton by one point in Washington, D.C., no one would have believed you. What does that mean? Maybe nothing. But, if John Thompson III's team can knock off Providence on Saturday, we may officially have a turnaround on our hands."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2016 13:45:36 GMT -5
The Monmouth loss isn't terrible given the year they are having, although losing handily wasn't ideal. The Monmouth loss is only going to look worse over time from an RPI perspective, though. Their RPI (in the 30s right now) gets worse every time they take the court the rest of the way due to their conference being so weak. It may not end up being a "bad" loss when it's all said and done - but it will look worse in March than it does in January. And God forbid they lose in their conference tournament and we end up on the bubble with them...
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Post by professorhoya on Jan 29, 2016 13:55:01 GMT -5
The Monmouth loss isn't terrible given the year they are having, although losing handily wasn't ideal. The Monmouth loss is only going to look worse over time from an RPI perspective, though. Their RPI (in the 30s right now) gets worse every time they take the court the rest of the way due to their conference being so weak. It may not end up being a "bad" loss when it's all said and done - but it will look worse in March than it does in January. And God forbid they lose in their conference tournament and we end up on the bubble with them... If they keep winning though would their RPI drop significantly?
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