NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,923
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Post by NCHoya on Jan 22, 2016 10:58:00 GMT -5
While I know "officially" the committee is supposed to take the season as a whole, recency bias is a real thing. The whole idea of an "eye test" gives the committee a free pass to use recency bias or whatever other biases they have to make a decision without actually having to admit or explain it. Also, the first game of the season is a complete crapshoot. No one is going to put much negative weight on that. Meanwhile, I believe UNC-A and Monmouth both have realistic chances of making the NCAAs. Losing to fellow NCAA teams, not a big deal. I think UConn is a huge game for us. If we win, we are nationally relevant again right now and being on the radar matters. You do not want to slowly climb the mountain and hope people notice, you want high quality wins that shine the spotlight on what the Hoyas are doing. Road wins do that. I think a win against Uconn, a winning record in the Big East and 1 BET win gets us in at 19 wins. However, I really do not want to be in that play-in game, so beating Uconn, 11-7 and 1-2 BET wins is a much better outcome. Without a win against UConn, 11-7 is a must in my opinion. Gotta disagree. UCONN win would be nice but a loss not in itself a disaster. Our NCAA hopes rest on how we do in the BE. Assuming we lose the games we will be favored to lose (Nova away, Providence away, Butler away and maybe Xavier at home) our truly big games are those against Seton Hall and Butler at home. Those are the two teams we will probably be trying to beat out for an NCAA bid. Of course that assumes we beat bottom feeders St John's and Marquette and Creighton next week. I look at tomorrow's game against UCONN as a warmup for the rest of our BE schedule. More than anything I will be watching to see whether the Xavier win was for real or just a fluke and whether Ike can come alive. I did not mean a loss to UConn would be a disaster, but it would be a high quality win on the road against what should be a top 50 rpi team. Those are hard to come by and Uconn could be on the bubble themselves, this would be a way for us to get ahead of them and improve a putrid 7-5 OOC record. I see it as an important game. To me, it makes a difference between getting by 10-8 in BE and having to go 11-7, which means likely getting a tough road win. I do agree SHU and Butler are bigger games for us though in the larger context.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Jan 22, 2016 11:49:53 GMT -5
In my mind, Saturday at UConn is absolutely huge. A win sets us on a very reasonable trajectory for an NCAA tourney invitation. A win keeps us in the hunt, even assuming a 10-8 conference record. 11-7 plus UConn and we are locked and loaded for March. OOC wins against Wisconsin, Cuse, and UConn will look really solid, create some separation against other bubble teams, and help mitigate the Radford and UNC-A losses.
A loss Saturday just makes it so hard down the stretch. I am a huge doubter with a loss Saturday.
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Jan 22, 2016 12:53:42 GMT -5
In my mind, Saturday at UConn is absolutely huge. A win sets us on a very reasonable trajectory for an NCAA tourney invitation. A win keeps us in the hunt, even assuming a 10-8 conference record. 11-7 plus UConn and we are locked and loaded for March. OOC wins against Wisconsin, Cuse, and UConn will look really solid, create some separation against other bubble teams, and help mitigate the Radford and UNC-A losses. A loss Saturday just makes it so hard down the stretch. I am a huge doubter with a loss Saturday. I agree with this. On top of the NCAA implications, I also think this game will be a good barometer of whether this team is turning a corner or not. Was the win @xavier the high point? Or can they follow it up with another strong road performance against another good team? If they come out an lay an egg, I think doing what would need to be done the rest of the way is probably not realistic. Two strong road wins in a row, though, and I agree that sets us up very well to have a shot at dancing, both from a resume perspective and a confidence perspective.
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b52legend
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 453
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Post by b52legend on Jan 22, 2016 14:24:52 GMT -5
The team needs to approach every game like a must win. Forget "making" the tournament. The team should be shooting for a #2 seed. Win out and win the big east tournament, and its ours. Its time to bring the noise.
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 22, 2016 15:13:28 GMT -5
This is wrong. It's no longer a criteria considered. Sagarin, Pomeroy and other non-RPI ratings, however, are now considered. That should help us because I expect our Pomeroy rating to exceed our RPI. 8 wins puts us in safely. 7 and it will likely depend on who else is sitting on the bubble with us. That's not true, actually. The only change was literally removing the Last 10 from the committee-provided cheat sheet. Performance at the end of the season is still considered as the committee is picking the best teams and if late season importance looks like improvement, it will be considered. Unless that is a new change for this year, that's not right (and maybe I missed it so if I did I am wrong). But one misconception Wellman (who I think was replaced this year) put to rest was that the committee weighted late season over ealry season performance. He said the committee looks at the entire body of work and it's weighted equally. And, as you noted, the last 10 is longer in the criteria guidelines the NCAA provides the committee or the team sheets. One other thing Wellman did say that I found interesting was the individual comparisons each team goes through vs. other comparable teams. It's way more painstaking than I imagined and it's heavily influenced by rankings metrics (for example, how many Top 50 RPI wins did Team A have vs. Team B).
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 22, 2016 15:18:00 GMT -5
That's not true, actually. The only change was literally removing the Last 10 from the committee-provided cheat sheet. Performance at the end of the season is still considered as the committee is picking the best teams and if late season importance looks like improvement, it will be considered. Unless that is a new change for this year, that's not right (and maybe I missed it so if I did I am wrong). But one misconception Wellman (who I think was replaced this year) put to rest was that the committee weighted late season over ealry season performance. He said the committee looks at the entire body of work and it's weighted equally. And, as you noted, the last 10 is longer in the criteria guidelines the NCAA provides the committee or the team sheets. One other thing Wellman did say that I found interesting was the individual comparisons each team goes through vs. other comparable teams. It's way more painstaking than I imagined and it's heavily influenced by rankings metrics (for example, how many Top 50 RPI wins did Team A have vs. Team B). Here is an example I just found. This is Wellman from a 2014 interview. I know he talked about a bunch after the seeds were announced: The issue: How is Louisville only a No. 4 seed? Wellman’s words: “Well, again, Louisville is on the four line, which is a very good line. You look at that line, and we not only have Louisville, we have Michigan State, UCLA, San Diego State. Last year, two of the Final Four teams came from the four line. That could very well happen again this year. Louisville finished the season exceptionally strong. If anybody watched Louisville play the last couple weeks of the season, you could easily predict that they could be a national championship contender again this year. But the Committee's responsibility is to look at their entire body of work. When we looked at the entire body of work of Louisville versus everyone else on the board, we felt that they were slotted appropriately at the No. 4 line.”
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Post by michaeldm9 on Jan 22, 2016 15:18:51 GMT -5
Win out period. My coach always had a motto, "You win you play period".
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Jan 22, 2016 15:21:54 GMT -5
Just win, baby! It all starts by beating the Convicts. One game at a time.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jan 22, 2016 17:07:55 GMT -5
The interesting thing about our bad losses is they're not actually horrendous based on the RPI as of right now. Right now the RPI of Radford and UNC-A are about the same as DePaul's and Marquette's respectively. Losing to St. John's would be a far more damaging loss than either Radford or UNC-A.
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blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by blueandgray on Jan 22, 2016 19:34:33 GMT -5
Top 4 in the Big East is in. That's not because of that result directly but because whatever has to happen to get there would put us in. This.
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blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by blueandgray on Jan 22, 2016 19:36:57 GMT -5
The interesting thing about our bad losses is they're not actually horrendous based on the RPI as of right now. Right now the RPI of Radford and UNC-A are about the same as DePaul's and Marquette's respectively. Losing to St. John's would be a far more damaging loss than either Radford or UNC-A. Agreed...and Monmouth should be taken out of the equation. They could be an 8 or 9 seed in the tourney.
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Post by bicentennial on Jan 22, 2016 20:32:31 GMT -5
To me the interesting thing about playing the Connvicts this late is that a win likely bumps the conference RPI up as the BIG EAST is 4th and the AAC is 8th in conference RPI. If the conference is rated higher it increases the odds that more than 4 teams might make it into the Dance! Winning this game helps our chances and likely also helps other BIG East schools with being rated higher when seeding is considered!
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 23, 2016 14:08:19 GMT -5
What would need to happen? The NCAA would have to rule at least 40 teams ineligible.
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Post by bicentennial on Jan 23, 2016 15:13:40 GMT -5
Clearly the guards and forwards to not get the inside out game, only the outside, outside, outside game! On the plus side when we foul on every possession it is hard for the opposing team to make field goals!
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 23, 2016 16:18:52 GMT -5
Losing this game is definitely a big dent in our attempt to make the tournament, but it's still there for the taking. Our defense is actually substantially improved. Now, if we could just stop fouling...
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 23, 2016 16:35:01 GMT -5
Yeah, this isn't a good team, but we have every oppty to make the tourney. Heck, we only have 5 more road games left and really none of them would be a bad loss- maybe Marquette - but, we could just win all our home games and maybe make it. We'll see how this next week goes. Beat Creighton and Providence, and we are right there.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by GUJook97 on Jan 23, 2016 16:39:01 GMT -5
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 23, 2016 23:12:02 GMT -5
Stop with the Kenpom and RPI. We are 5-2 in the BE and have 11 games left, 6 at home. So win all 6 home games and one road game and we are 12-6. Probably puts us 4th in the BE. Included in those home wins are Providence, Butler, and Xavier. That record gets us a bid. Lose one of those home games then we can worry about Kenpom.
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eagle54
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by eagle54 on Jan 23, 2016 23:29:28 GMT -5
Stop with the Kenpom and RPI. We are 5-2 in the BE and have 11 games left, 6 at home. So win all 6 home games and one road game and we are 12-6. Probably puts us 4th in the BE. Included in those home wins are Providence, Butler, and Xavier. That record gets us a bid. Lose one of those home games then we can worry about Kenpom. I'm not sure anyone looks at BE record by itself. It's total record, quality wins / bad losses then the RPI's and other indicator rankings. If we can somehow win out in BE or put forth something close to that than we are in good shape if can show up in our conference tournament. It's not going to ultimately matter the BE record on its own. We keep rationalizing how we still have a chance after each agonizing loss but soon the music will stop. I totally think we can walk on a court with any college team and have a chance to win but we can also walk on a court and lose to anyone in the same respect which we've displayed on too many occasions. Unfortunately, the latter has been much more true this year. I think our encouragement should come from the youth that is on this team and what the future may bring. Need to coach them this offseason and treat this as an urgency which I've never sensed from this regime but I don believe there is talent there it just takes coaching.
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bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by bamahoya11 on Jan 23, 2016 23:37:10 GMT -5
After today, I tend to think that we need to win seven more games to be on the bubble and probably eight to get in. I'm thinking 7 regular season wins to get to 12-6 in the league and then a win in New York.
The easiest way to do that is to go 6-0 in our home games and steal one or two on the road. Our final six at home are Creighton, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler. Obviously the first two and last two are the toughest. I think going 2-0 this week is pivotal for our chances. Creighton and Providence are both winnable home games against quality opponents. We already lost a chance against Villanova and can't do that again.
In terms of the road games, I'm eyeing Butler and Providence. We have played well in both places, especially (and surprisingly) at Butler. The good news though is that the only real game that I think is probably out of reach is the closer against Villanova.
So, even after the loss today, I think the tournament is there for the taking. The big caveat--we need consistency at this point and can't keep canceling out a significant win with a head-scratching loss. This week should tell is a lot.
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