NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,923
|
Post by NCHoya on Feb 8, 2016 11:03:11 GMT -5
I do not understand the thinking that we gain something by tanking the season. As Columbia states you will only further erode the confidence of the current players, it will hurt recruiting, further reduce a shrinking season ticket base, send DSR/Hayes out on an awful note and say a lot about a Georgetown team's character - that they are losers and quitters. Losing out would be a terrible outcome. We have been disappointing enough that III understands he needs to make real changes. No way he would go hard after a PG like Lykes 3 years ago.
I am not an optimist with this team, I am not thinking about scenarios that get us to the postseason, I just want to see these guys compete and play better basketball. It would be satisfying just to see them put 4-5 games together of decent basketball regardless of the outcome.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Feb 8, 2016 11:19:23 GMT -5
I've officially become more concerned about recruiting and DSR's career totals until the BET. We are toast absent an improbable run at the Garden. To be fair, what's the difference between an improbable run in the Garden and, say, an improbable run in the next 5 games? I would still argue we have a better chance there. After tonight, we play 4 straight games against tourney teams and 3 of them are at home.
|
|
gunny
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 559
|
Post by gunny on Feb 8, 2016 12:04:02 GMT -5
TBird & Gunny, you realize we don't get a better draft position by tanking right? All you get is a bunch of 18 & 20 year old kids wondering what the hell happened and further shake their confidence. Get a W tonight. Provy without Bentil or a hobbled Bentil is doable. Frankly, I think every game left on our schedule is winnable (sans at Nova). Will we win them all, probably not. Can we go 4-3 and keep a glimmer of hope alive, my guess is yes. For Bradley & DSR's sake, I hope we can get in to the tourney to give them a good send off. I never said we should tank the season. The word tank was never in my post. All I said was if we are going to end up 16-16 or something similar to that, then I would rather see us end up at 15-17 with no tournament bids at all. A NIT bid or CBI or pick three of your favorite letters no name, unimportant tournament extends the narrative that we had a post season bid. I want to see a change in the program that involves everything from recruiting to specific needs (ie a true point guard) to a change in offensive philosophy. It concerns me that I look at the roster for next year and unless there is drastic improvement in the guard position by Campbell or Mosely is a diaper dandy then I see that team as worse than this year. I want to see improvement from players not regression like this year. And by the way, I hope we string 7 wins starting tonight together and make the NCAA comfortable, but I don't see that happening.
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Feb 8, 2016 12:29:03 GMT -5
TBird & Gunny, you realize we don't get a better draft position by tanking right? All you get is a bunch of 18 & 20 year old kids wondering what the hell happened and further shake their confidence. Get a W tonight. Provy without Bentil or a hobbled Bentil is doable. Frankly, I think every game left on our schedule is winnable (sans at Nova). Will we win them all, probably not. Can we go 4-3 and keep a glimmer of hope alive, my guess is yes. For Bradley & DSR's sake, I hope we can get in to the tourney to give them a good send off. I'm still holding out hope for the NCAAs. I'm not rooting for them to miss the tournament--if anything, I feel like we'll snap the Sweet 16 streak in a year like this, because nothing makes sense about our performances in the NCAAs. I just think a 17 win season that gets us an NIT game at McDonough isn't going to have the impact to lead to the big fixes that need to be made. And I expect this team to continue to put in the effort, I just don't think it'll be enough against the schedule we have remaining. But I'm never rooting against the team making the NCAAs. Also, I don't think making the NIT/missing the NIT matters to recruits. Making the tournament helps obviously.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 8, 2016 13:04:31 GMT -5
I've officially become more concerned about recruiting and DSR's career totals until the BET. We are toast absent an improbable run at the Garden. To be fair, what's the difference between an improbable run in the Garden and, say, an improbable run in the next 5 games? I would still argue we have a better chance there. After tonight, we play 4 straight games against tourney teams and 3 of them are at home. Very simply, I think we have a better chance to go 3-0 at a neutral site in MSG than 6-1 in our next 7, which includes 3 tough road games at Nova, Provvy, and Quette. Any way you slice these remaining 7 games, we are going to need a strong showing in the BET. And under the vast majority of feasible 7 game outcomes, we will need to win the BET to get into the NCAAs.
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Feb 8, 2016 13:10:23 GMT -5
Nothing has really changed from a few weeks ago. We had to split with Butler and Seton Hall, must win against Marquette, beat St. Johns and steal one game from Providence/Xavier/Villanova. However now the remaining Butler/Seton Hall home games are must wins along with Marquette and St. Johns. So time is running out and there is no cushion. Appreciate the slight optimism , but the fact that nothing has changed is the problem. The only thing we've done in 2+ weeks to help our chances is a miracle comeback against a rather blah BE team at home. Even under the scenario you laid out, which is really tough, we'd still have to win a BET game to be comfortable. 6 more wins seems all but impossible right now. RPI forecast gives 5 wins about 11%, so add a neutral site win against a tourney team to that. Yikes. Oh, it's not going to be easy. Margin of error is small. But my assessment 2 weeks ago was that we realistically were going to split with Butler, Seton Hall and had to beat Marquette which still holds. It seemed unrealistic to expect us to sweep Butler and Seton Hall because they are good teams. That's probably the problem of having home/away in the same season. Of course any slip up and the only avenue becomes either winning the BET or upsetting all 3 Providence/Xavier/Villanova and either scenario seems unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Feb 8, 2016 13:15:49 GMT -5
TBird & Gunny, you realize we don't get a better draft position by tanking right? All you get is a bunch of 18 & 20 year old kids wondering what the hell happened and further shake their confidence. Get a W tonight. Provy without Bentil or a hobbled Bentil is doable. Frankly, I think every game left on our schedule is winnable (sans at Nova). Will we win them all, probably not. Can we go 4-3 and keep a glimmer of hope alive, my guess is yes. For Bradley & DSR's sake, I hope we can get in to the tourney to give them a good send off. I'm still holding out hope for the NCAAs. I'm not rooting for them to miss the tournament--if anything, I feel like we'll snap the Sweet 16 streak in a year like this, because nothing makes sense about our performances in the NCAAs. I just think a 17 win season that gets us an NIT game at McDonough isn't going to have the impact to lead to the big fixes that need to be made. And I expect this team to continue to put in the effort, I just don't think it'll be enough against the schedule we have remaining. But I'm never rooting against the team making the NCAAs. Also, I don't think making the NIT/missing the NIT matters to recruits. Making the tournament helps obviously. This year is awkward, mainly because of the new rules. Duke is out of the top 25. Everyone is getting upset. Lousiville and Pitino have decided to give up which opens up a spot and SMU and Larry Brown were forced to. Tourney locks like Vanderbilt with their 3 7 footers who on paper are really good have struggled with injuries and the new rules but have pulled off some upsets lately. I think if you hang in there and don't give up, then you'll probably be surprised what will get you into this year's tournament. The teams that hang in there and keep fighting will make it in while the teams that gave up will be kicking themselves when they see what kind of teams get in the tourney.
|
|
hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,203
Member is Online
|
Post by hoyaboya on Feb 8, 2016 13:25:02 GMT -5
I'm still holding out hope for the NCAAs. I'm not rooting for them to miss the tournament--if anything, I feel like we'll snap the Sweet 16 streak in a year like this, because nothing makes sense about our performances in the NCAAs. I just think a 17 win season that gets us an NIT game at McDonough isn't going to have the impact to lead to the big fixes that need to be made. And I expect this team to continue to put in the effort, I just don't think it'll be enough against the schedule we have remaining. But I'm never rooting against the team making the NCAAs. Also, I don't think making the NIT/missing the NIT matters to recruits. Making the tournament helps obviously. This year is awkward, mainly because of the new rules. Duke is out of the top 25. Everyone is getting upset. Lousiville and Pitino have decided to give up which opens up a spot and SMU and Larry Brown were forced to. Tourney locks like Vanderbilt with their 3 7 footers who on paper are really good have struggled with injuries and the new rules but have pulled off some upsets lately. I think if you hang in there and don't give up, then you'll probably be surprised what will get you into this year's tournament. The teams that hang in there and keep fighting will make it in while the teams that gave up will be kicking themselves when they see what kind of teams get in the tourney.Totally agree with this. I don't anticipate the Hoyas giving up. I expect a 20+ point win tonight and a competitive game at Providence. If we go 2-0 this week, then we're getting very close to the bubble again, with 2 more opportunities for big wins against Xavier and Nova. One win at a time, but all hope is not lost yet.
|
|
hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,203
Member is Online
|
Post by hoyaboya on Feb 8, 2016 13:41:47 GMT -5
We're in the "next 4 out" line (after the "first 4 out") in Lunardi's latest bracketology. Seton Hall and Butler are both in the "last 4 in" line. A lot of pretty crappy teams in front of us that I'd think we can jump (Oregon State, Clemson, Wisconsin, etc.).
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Feb 8, 2016 14:04:39 GMT -5
To be fair, what's the difference between an improbable run in the Garden and, say, an improbable run in the next 5 games? I would still argue we have a better chance there. After tonight, we play 4 straight games against tourney teams and 3 of them are at home. Very simply, I think we have a better chance to go 3-0 at a neutral site in MSG than 6-1 in our next 7, which includes 3 tough road games at Nova, Provvy, and Quette. Any way you slice these remaining 7 games, we are going to need a strong showing in the BET. And under the vast majority of feasible 7 game outcomes, we will need to win the BET to get into the NCAAs. I hear you, but I think you are arguing against yourself. To be fair, I probably do the same thing You said we are toast absent an improbable BET run so the regular season is not really worth watching. Im just slightly disagreeing. And, we dont really have to go 6-1. We could go 6-3, because like you said, it could be a combination of play down the stretch and at the BET. To put it another way, I think it's unlikely we make the tourney, but I do think its very likely we come close.
|
|
|
Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 8, 2016 14:06:52 GMT -5
Bubble will be really soft which helps. The number of upsets this year means you just want to get in to have a shot. I frankly would be fine with use playing anyone in the first round and feel like we could reasonably believe we could win against anybody. The other problem I see is we have had the same narrative for the past two games and we have dropped them both. I don't see some change in effort coming or better rebounding positioning. Maybe we get the Ike from the last game coupled with strong efforts from others. Grasping at straws here.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 11:29:20 GMT -5
Pretty funny commentary from the Georgetown writeup in today's ESPN Bubble Watch:
Lost three straight games? Lacking confidence on the offensive end? Have you tried "Playing St. John's"? From the folks who brought you Playing DePaul comes the latest cure for everything your struggling team needs! Renowned biologists have formulated Playing St. John's with a unique blend of naturally occurring ingredients -- disinterested defense, inept offense! -- and condensed them into one easily digestible opponent. It's designed to treat defeats at their source. That's why four out of five Big East coaches recommend it. Playing St. John's: You literally can't lose! (Trademark pending.)
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Feb 9, 2016 12:27:44 GMT -5
Pretty funny commentary from the Georgetown writeup in today's ESPN Bubble Watch: Lost three straight games? Lacking confidence on the offensive end? Have you tried "Playing St. John's"? From the folks who brought you Playing DePaul comes the latest cure for everything your struggling team needs! Renowned biologists have formulated Playing St. John's with a unique blend of naturally occurring ingredients -- disinterested defense, inept offense! -- and condensed them into one easily digestible opponent. It's designed to treat defeats at their source. That's why four out of five Big East coaches recommend it. Playing St. John's: You literally can't lose! ** (Trademark pending.) **Not applicable to SyracuseHad to fix that for him--he left out the disclaimer.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 9, 2016 13:16:31 GMT -5
5-1 in our last 6 and we're in.
4-2 and we are in with a 1 or maybe 2-win BET.
3-3 and we probably need the BET crown.
On paper, we may not be favored in any these final 6 games.
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 9, 2016 22:48:44 GMT -5
5-1 in our last 6 and we're in. 4-2 and we are in with a 1 or maybe 2-win BET. 3-3 and we probably need the BET crown. On paper, we may not be favored in any these final 6 games. These are the KenPom odds for the remainder of the season: @providence: 32% Seton Hall: 53% Xavier: 48% Butler: 59% @marquette: 50% (though he says we'll win) @villanova: 10% So, we have a realistic chance of winning 5 of the 6 games individually. The problem is the odds we go 5-1, or even 4-2 are pretty low. But, I choose to remain optimistic. The single thing that would help us the most is Copeland waking up from his slump, and there's reason for encouragement. If that happens, I think our real odds of winning these games is actually higher than the numbers would say.
|
|
DoctorHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,544
|
Post by DoctorHoya on Feb 10, 2016 11:51:48 GMT -5
Win the BET
|
|
lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 604
|
Post by lda05816 on Feb 10, 2016 13:14:37 GMT -5
5-1 in our last 6 and we're in. 4-2 and we are in with a 1 or maybe 2-win BET. 3-3 and we probably need the BET crown. On paper, we may not be favored in any these final 6 games. To go 5-1 or even 4-2 down the stretch, need to win all 3 at home.
|
|
Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,906
|
Post by Filo on Feb 10, 2016 13:34:38 GMT -5
5-1 in our last 6 and we're in. 4-2 and we are in with a 1 or maybe 2-win BET. 3-3 and we probably need the BET crown. On paper, we may not be favored in any these final 6 games. To go 5-1 or even 4-2 down the stretch, need to win all 3 at home. To go 5-1 or even 4-2 down the stretch, need to play like they were expected to play this season, not how they actually played so far this season.
|
|
lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,436
|
Post by lichoya68 on Feb 10, 2016 15:14:55 GMT -5
what the heck win out and win the big east tourney YOU CAN DO IT CAUSE ISSAC IS BACK so JUST DO IT NOW>
|
|
drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,372
|
Post by drquigley on Feb 10, 2016 22:48:12 GMT -5
Well after tonight things have gotten very interesting. Seton Hall and Providence losing actually gives us a chance to finish second in the BE. Gotta feel like the jockey at the Derby who suddenly sees an opening on the rail. The question is does he have enough horse to take advantage of it?
|
|