McBricks
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
What Rocks.
Posts: 1,173
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Post by McBricks on Nov 14, 2016 13:01:02 GMT -5
Hacktastic. Excellent.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 14, 2016 13:01:20 GMT -5
It's not an improvement when you are playing UC Upstate. The only thing I see as a positive on the foul front is that it was really concentrated at center and a lot of the calls were somewhat questionable and in the second half when things were over. I think our perimeter players defended much better but Agau, Govan, etc., were still hacktastic. I agree. It was an improvement in the sense that it wouldn't make us 345/351 bad, but still not good. Govan, Agau, and Mourning all fouled way too much in too little time, especially Agau. I do chalk some of that up to them not being able to handle Buchanan in the second half, but that definitely needs to improve.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,712
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 14, 2016 13:03:59 GMT -5
It's not an improvement when you are playing UC Upstate. The only thing I see as a positive on the foul front is that it was really concentrated at center and a lot of the calls were somewhat questionable and in the second half when things were over. I think our perimeter players defended much better but Agau, Govan, etc., were still hacktastic. I agree. It was an improvement in the sense that it wouldn't make us 345/351 bad, but still not good. Govan, Agau, and Mourning all fouled way too much in too little time, especially Agau. I do chalk some of that up to them not being able to handle Buchanan in the second half, but that definitely needs to improve. Yeah, we're just 218th in fouling right now! But again, that's against USC Upstate.
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boxout05
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 571
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Post by boxout05 on Nov 14, 2016 13:05:16 GMT -5
IIRC, we had 4 fouls in the first half, and gave them the double bonus with over 10 minutes left in the second half. Reminds me of the Brown game last year, but can't really tell anything from a game you're up 68-35 at half against UPST.
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Post by HometownHoya on Nov 14, 2016 13:06:33 GMT -5
It's not an improvement when you are playing UC Upstate. The only thing I see as a positive on the foul front is that it was really concentrated at center and a lot of the calls were somewhat questionable and in the second half when things were over. I think our perimeter players defended much better but Agau, Govan, etc., were still hacktastic. I agree. It was an improvement in the sense that it wouldn't make us 345/351 bad, but still not good. Govan, Agau, and Mourning all fouled way too much in too little time, especially Agau. I do chalk some of that up to them not being able to handle Buchanan in the second half, but that definitely needs to improve. I think the key to our frontcourt's foul issues was defending Buchanan. He's a big and experienced guy and it takes a lot of both power and finesse to defend someone like that. Additionally, we were missing our best post defender in Hayes. Agau will be a solid player but I doubt he'll be a star guarding guys that are either quicker or stronger then himself...his knee injuries have definitely lowered his athletic ceiling that could be seen in HS. Like was mentioned initially, one game (especially against USC-U) is much too small of a sample size to say how we will foul this year.
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rockhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,830
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Post by rockhoya on Nov 14, 2016 19:35:28 GMT -5
Also don't forget it was FT margin that killed us more than anything....that gap will be much smaller this year
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 18, 2016 11:50:07 GMT -5
Update for the last two games:
Georgetown: 24 fouls, 24-32 FT (75.0%); USC Upstate - 26 fouls, 12-28 (42.9%). Georgetown: 24 fouls, 37-42 FT (88.1%); Maryland - 32 fouls, 17-22 (77.3%) Georgetown: 25 fouls, 23-32 (71.9%); Arkansas State - 29 fouls, 16-28 (57.1%)
Overall, we have 73 fouls, opponents have 87. Overall, we have taken 106 FTs and made 84 (79.2%); opponents have taken 78 free throws and made 45 (57.7%).
My overall conclusions and thoughts:
(1) We are still fouling too much, but we are drawing more fouls, so there is no FT disparity like last season. It's better than last year, but we still need to foul less.
(2) We are incredibly lucky that opponents are only shooting their FTs at a rate of 57.7%. This will improve over the season, which means we need to give opponents less opportunities.
Looking at the rate at which our players foul per 40 minutes:
Johnson 3.2 Copeland 3.6 Pryor 3.6 Campbell: 4.2 Peak: 4.7 Mosley: 4.9 Derrickson 5.2 Govan: 5.3 Mulmore: 6.4 Agau: 11.2 Mourning 16.0
The fact that we only have three players under 4 fouls per 40 minutes is really bad. We are fouling way too much. Like last year, the bigs are worst overall, though Mulmore's fouling rate is really bad too. I think this is also an indication of our poor defense. Some of it is pressing, but we are still getting a lot of silly or ticky-tack fouls that are simply unacceptable. This needs to improve.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 24, 2017 0:00:00 GMT -5
So I haven't kept up the game-by-game stats, partially because in the out of conference schedule, we had started out fouling a lot less. But now, in conference, our free throw rate on defense is 52.6 (by far the worst) (it means .526 FTA for every FGA), and only 0.2 better than last year. This is really bad. The .526 number would put us 350/351 in Division 1.
Marquette (away): Us: 7-11 FT; Them: 14-17 (+6 FTs for Marquette) Xavier (home): Us: 14-23; Them: 29-38 (+15 FTs for Xavier) Providence (away): Us: 8-16; Them: 22-30 (+14 FTs for Providence) Butler (home): Us: 15-22; Them: 25-29 (+7 FTs for Butler) St. John's (home): Us: 27-33; Them: 18-27 (+6 FTs for Georgetown) Providence (home): Us: 15-21; Them: 13-20 (+1 FT for Georgetown) Xavier (away): Us: 8-20; Them: 36-49 (+29 FTs for Xavier)
Obviously, these huge disparities are a huge problem for us defensively - we are fouling way too much and are - again - basically spotting our opponent a bunch of points and then trying to catch up every game. It's just not a sustainable model for winning.
Now, why are we fouling more now even though we weren't out of conference? I don't know. Maybe it's desperation or frustration, or maybe just because our Big East opponents are better. But that doesn't change the fact that we are basically playing as if we are the second worst fouling team in the country. This has been a huge problem since the rule changes, and it must stop.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by prhoya on Jan 24, 2017 0:34:28 GMT -5
So I haven't kept up the game-by-game stats, partially because in the out of conference schedule, we had started out fouling a lot less. But now, in conference, our free throw rate on defense is 52.6 (by far the worst) (it means .526 FTA for every FGA), and only 0.2 better than last year. This is really bad. The .526 number would put us 350/351 in Division 1. Marquette (away): Us: 7-11 FT; Them: 14-17 (+6 FTs for Marquette) Xavier (home): Us: 14-23; Them: 29-38 (+15 FTs for Xavier) Providence (away): Us: 8-16; Them: 22-30 (+14 FTs for Providence) Butler (home): Us: 15-22; Them: 25-29 (+7 FTs for Butler) St. John's (home): Us: 27-33; Them: 18-27 (+6 FTs for Georgetown) Providence (home): Us: 15-21; Them: 13-20 (+1 FT for Georgetown) Xavier (away): Us: 8-20; Them: 36-49 (+29 FTs for Xavier) Obviously, these huge disparities are a huge problem for us defensively - we are fouling way too much and are - again - basically spotting our opponent a bunch of points and then trying to catch up every game. It's just not a sustainable model for winning. Now, why are we fouling more now even though we weren't out of conference? I don't know. Maybe it's desperation or frustration, or maybe just because our Big East opponents are better. But that doesn't change the fact that we are basically playing as if we are the second worst fouling team in the country. This has been a huge problem since the rule changes, and it must stop. When compared to last year, this year's roster has 4 new players getting good minutes in Jagan, Mulmore, Pryor and Agau. No one can blame this year's numbers on slow-footed DSR, Ike and Paul. Two of our worst defenders, Tre and Reggie, as well as foul-prone Trey, are not playing much. We have two new assistants to help out. Yet, here we are with the same problems of previous years. The common denominator is JT3.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 24, 2017 9:07:08 GMT -5
So I haven't kept up the game-by-game stats, partially because in the out of conference schedule, we had started out fouling a lot less. But now, in conference, our free throw rate on defense is 52.6 (by far the worst) (it means .526 FTA for every FGA), and only 0.2 better than last year. This is really bad. The .526 number would put us 350/351 in Division 1. Marquette (away): Us: 7-11 FT; Them: 14-17 (+6 FTs for Marquette) Xavier (home): Us: 14-23; Them: 29-38 (+15 FTs for Xavier) Providence (away): Us: 8-16; Them: 22-30 (+14 FTs for Providence) Butler (home): Us: 15-22; Them: 25-29 (+7 FTs for Butler) St. John's (home): Us: 27-33; Them: 18-27 (+6 FTs for Georgetown) Providence (home): Us: 15-21; Them: 13-20 (+1 FT for Georgetown) Xavier (away): Us: 8-20; Them: 36-49 (+29 FTs for Xavier) Obviously, these huge disparities are a huge problem for us defensively - we are fouling way too much and are - again - basically spotting our opponent a bunch of points and then trying to catch up every game. It's just not a sustainable model for winning. Now, why are we fouling more now even though we weren't out of conference? I don't know. Maybe it's desperation or frustration, or maybe just because our Big East opponents are better. But that doesn't change the fact that we are basically playing as if we are the second worst fouling team in the country. This has been a huge problem since the rule changes, and it must stop. When compared to last year, this year's roster has 4 new players getting good minutes in Jagan, Mulmore, Pryor and Agau. No one can blame this year's numbers on slow-footed DSR, Ike and Paul. Two of our worst defenders, Tre and Reggie, as well as foul-prone Trey, are not playing much. We have two new assistants to help out. Yet, here we are with the same problems of previous years. The common denominator is JT3. Actually DSR and Copeland fouled the least of anyone on last year's team (granted some might argue that's because they were both such bad defenders they were never close enough to their man to foul them). And who has PGs that foul at the high rates Mulmore and Mosely are fouling at? You are right on this. Since the rule changes (between 2013 and 2014) we have been awful at fouling regardless of who the players are. It's definitely something that can be blamed on JT3 because there's just no other explanation.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,597
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Post by guru on Jan 24, 2017 11:02:17 GMT -5
The new rules are garbage, and we should continue to ignore them. We can win in spite of them. I am proud of the staff for having that attitude. This is, simply, a gem of a post.
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,923
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Post by NCHoya on Jan 24, 2017 11:03:44 GMT -5
I am glad someone brought this thread back. It was mentioned during the last game by one of the commentators and should be repeated during every game. At this point, our players may have the worst defensive fundamentals in high major basektball.
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Post by HometownHoya on Jan 24, 2017 11:32:02 GMT -5
The Xavier game was exceptionally bad. Most games before that were just pretty bad. Both of our worst differential games this year have been against Xavier because that is their offense: drive the post, try to draw a foul, offensive rebound the missed shot if there is no foul.
The most disappointing part to me has been our downtick of drawing fouls. Points at the line are easy points. We even saw it against X this time when LJ couldn't buy a bucket in the first half but was still getting points at the line. Unfortunately it was too little.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,242
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Post by prhoya on Jan 24, 2017 11:44:26 GMT -5
The new rules are garbage, and we should continue to ignore them. We can win in spite of them. I am proud of the staff for having that attitude. This is, simply, a gem of a post. That is Ronnie T. talking... stubborn runs in the family...
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 24, 2017 11:47:00 GMT -5
Last year, some people made the argument that we foul so much because our defense is poor otherwise. But, that doesn't really work. Even if our opponents were to make 70% of their free throws, basically any defense that doesn't foul would do better than what we are doing right now.
As far as fouling is concerned, it does seem that it's a systemic program-wide problem.
It's hard to compare, since there aren't many examples of players who have played on multiple programs. This year, though we have two. Rodney Pryor's foul rate per 40 minutes this year is 3.0 (though 3.8 in conference play), whereas it was 3.1 at Robert Morris in 2015 and 2016. Akoy Agau barely played at Louisville (and thus, the sample size is tiny), but there his FC/40 was 3.8, whereas at Georgetown it's 6.1.
The drastic impact can be seen by looking at the number of players committing more than four fouls per forty minutes since 2013:
2013 (last year before new rules): Hopkins (6.2) (everyone else was below 4.0 fouls per 40 minutes!)
Rule changes happen in 2014.
2014: Moses (8.3), Smith (7.1), Hopkins (6.2), Lubick (5.0), Trawick (4.9), Bowen (4.8)
2015: Smith (6.8), Hayes (6.4), Hopkins (6.0), White (4.1), Trawick (4.1), Bowen (4.1)
2016: Mourning (9.9), Govan (7.0), Johnson (7.0), Hayes (6.0), Peak (5.7), Derrickson (5.7)
2017: Agau (6.1), Govan (5.4), Derrickson (5.4), Mulmore (5.4), Johnson (5.2), Hayes (4.9), Mosely (4.9)
This is a huge, huge problem and a systemic one. I said last year I thought that if we could defend without fouling we might have even made the tournament. I am not sure that's true this year (probably not) but if we didn't foul so much it would certainly give us more wins - such as against Xavier.
With our other problems and weaknesses, like rebounding, we just cannot afford to be fouling so much and spotting the other team with so many points. JT3 clearly has not been able to adjust to the new defensive rules, as nothing else has changed since 2013, and many of the high foulers in 2014 were not fouling at the same rates in 2013. This absolutely must change or we cannot be a winning program.
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,242
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Post by prhoya on Jan 24, 2017 12:10:23 GMT -5
Last year, some people made the argument that we foul so much because our defense is poor otherwise. But, that doesn't really work. Even if our opponents were to make 70% of their free throws, basically any defense that doesn't foul would do better than what we are doing right now. As far as fouling is concerned, it does seem that it's a systemic program-wide problem. It's hard to compare, since there aren't many examples of players who have played on multiple programs. This year, though we have two. Rodney Pryor's foul rate per 40 minutes this year is 3.0 (though 3.8 in conference play), whereas it was 3.1 at Robert Morris in 2015 and 2016. Akoy Agau barely played at Louisville (and thus, the sample size is tiny), but there his FC/40 was 3.8, whereas at Georgetown it's 6.1. The drastic impact can be seen by looking at the number of players committing more than four fouls per forty minutes since 2013: 2013 (last year before new rules): Hopkins (6.2) (everyone else was below 4.0 fouls per 40 minutes!) Rule changes happen in 2014. 2014: Moses (8.3), Smith (7.1), Hopkins (6.2), Lubick (5.0), Trawick (4.9), Bowen (4.8) 2015: Smith (6.8), Hayes (6.4), Hopkins (6.0), White (4.1), Trawick (4.1), Bowen (4.1) 2016: Mourning (9.9), Govan (7.0), Johnson (7.0), Hayes (6.0), Peak (5.7), Derrickson (5.7) 2017: Agau (6.1), Govan (5.4), Derrickson (5.4), Mulmore (5.4), Johnson (5.2), Hayes (4.9), Mosely (4.9) This is a huge, huge problem and a systemic one. I said last year I thought that if we could defend without fouling we might have even made the tournament. I am not sure that's true this year (probably not) but if we didn't foul so much it would certainly give us more wins - such as against Xavier. With our other problems and weaknesses, like rebounding, we just cannot afford to be fouling so much and spotting the other team with so many points. JT3 clearly has not been able to adjust to the new defensive rules, as nothing else has changed since 2013, and many of the high foulers in 2014 were not fouling at the same rates in 2013. This absolutely must change or we cannot be a winning program. Great post, 2003... and HOLY $HIT!
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 24, 2017 13:01:33 GMT -5
Last year, some people made the argument that we foul so much because our defense is poor otherwise. But, that doesn't really work. Even if our opponents were to make 70% of their free throws, basically any defense that doesn't foul would do better than what we are doing right now. As far as fouling is concerned, it does seem that it's a systemic program-wide problem. It's hard to compare, since there aren't many examples of players who have played on multiple programs. This year, though we have two. Rodney Pryor's foul rate per 40 minutes this year is 3.0 (though 3.8 in conference play), whereas it was 3.1 at Robert Morris in 2015 and 2016. Akoy Agau barely played at Louisville (and thus, the sample size is tiny), but there his FC/40 was 3.8, whereas at Georgetown it's 6.1. The drastic impact can be seen by looking at the number of players committing more than four fouls per forty minutes since 2013: 2013 (last year before new rules): Hopkins (6.2) (everyone else was below 4.0 fouls per 40 minutes!) Rule changes happen in 2014. 2014: Moses (8.3), Smith (7.1), Hopkins (6.2), Lubick (5.0), Trawick (4.9), Bowen (4.8) 2015: Smith (6.8), Hayes (6.4), Hopkins (6.0), White (4.1), Trawick (4.1), Bowen (4.1) 2016: Mourning (9.9), Govan (7.0), Johnson (7.0), Hayes (6.0), Peak (5.7), Derrickson (5.7) 2017: Agau (6.1), Govan (5.4), Derrickson (5.4), Mulmore (5.4), Johnson (5.2), Hayes (4.9), Mosely (4.9) This is a huge, huge problem and a systemic one. I said last year I thought that if we could defend without fouling we might have even made the tournament. I am not sure that's true this year (probably not) but if we didn't foul so much it would certainly give us more wins - such as against Xavier. With our other problems and weaknesses, like rebounding, we just cannot afford to be fouling so much and spotting the other team with so many points. JT3 clearly has not been able to adjust to the new defensive rules, as nothing else has changed since 2013, and many of the high foulers in 2014 were not fouling at the same rates in 2013. This absolutely must change or we cannot be a winning program. Great post, 2003... and HOLY $HIT! For the record, I am not saying that change needs to happen immediately, but these problems needs to be fixed otherwise we have little to no hope of putting together a winning program. I admit I am not a huge X's and O's guy, but I would be interested in what people think we could do to improve this problem. I know that some have suggested a pack the line defense. We are already playing zone a lot, so I don't think that's the solution. But, legitimately, if nearly everyone else is better than fouling than us, it seems like it shouldn't be all that hard to put together a defense that doesn't foul as much, right? I am not even suggesting we need to be great at it. Even being average would be a huge boost. I am genuinely curious to hear some opinions from people who are more knowledgeable than me on the mechanics of defense, etc.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 24, 2017 13:02:02 GMT -5
Look at the (dimly bright) side - Govan, Johnson, Peak and Hayes have all dropped more than a foul per game!
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 24, 2017 13:59:45 GMT -5
Great post, 2003... and HOLY $HIT! For the record, I am not saying that change needs to happen immediately, but these problems needs to be fixed otherwise we have little to no hope of putting together a winning program. I admit I am not a huge X's and O's guy, but I would be interested in what people think we could do to improve this problem. I know that some have suggested a pack the line defense. We are already playing zone a lot, so I don't think that's the solution. But, legitimately, if nearly everyone else is better than fouling than us, it seems like it shouldn't be all that hard to put together a defense that doesn't foul as much, right? I am not even suggesting we need to be great at it. Even being average would be a huge boost. I am genuinely curious to hear some opinions from people who are more knowledgeable than me on the mechanics of defense, etc. I don't know if I'm more knowledgeable or not, but that's never stopped me from offering an opinion.... I think the most significant problem is our guards' ability to stop dribble penetration. That creates, in the first instance, a lot of fouls by the guards themselves. And second, it creates a ton of fouls by bigs (or other players) who have to come over to help. I thought we were doing a much better job at it earlier in the year, but the wheels sort of fell off the past couple games. For our bigs, I think when they do rotate over and help, they seem to constantly attempt to block the shot rather than stand straight up and simply contest. And even when it's our forwards or guards helping, they tend to reach in and pick up cheapies. We've tried playing some zone, but that doesn't seem to work much better. I don't think it's really a schematic issue. I just think we have guys with very poor individual defensive skill overall. If anything a packline is more difficult to play than a "standard" M2M because you have to be able to close out and rotate under control but aggressively. (I know this wasn't your question, but the other thing the dribble-penetration does is it makes it much harder for us to rebound. Guys are constantly rotating by necessity, so it's much harder to box someone out.)
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Jan 24, 2017 19:37:51 GMT -5
The new rules are garbage, and we should continue to ignore them. We can win in spite of them. I am proud of the staff for having that attitude. This is, simply, a gem of a post. Perhaps hoyalove4ever might care to rethink this. As for me, I have never understood why baseball umpires do not call balls and strikes in accordance with the actual strike zone. I think that the players should ignore the umpires, treat high strikes that are called balls as actual strikes, and do their own ball and strike counts. So when the batter has a two strike count and takes a high strike that is incorrectly called a ball, he should forfeit his at bat and return to the dugout. That'll show those umpires. Similarly, perhaps we can get other teams to join us in ignoring the rules (or at least the manner in which the rules are interpreted). So rather than stop play when a "bogus" foul is called, the players should continue playing and just call their own fouls, like a shirts v. skins game. Yes indeed, this is brilliant strategy. I've also decided that Hillary should ignore the election results and move into the White House. Since Melania won't be there, Donald might not even notice. Imagine the alternative facts we could deal with in that event.
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