Stats through the first 3 Games...

[SFHoya99]

And there's a few things in there that run counter to what I think a lot of people think about the performance so far, and it's mostly because we focus too much on points.

• DSR's offensive numbers are a little worse than last year, but not much. Yes, he's shooting a bit worse and he's played less minutes because of foul trouble, but he's assisting on 30% of the baskets when he's in the game, and his turnover rate is now 8%. The first number is similar to what Chris Wright put up in his best year (and would be considered a pretty good assist rate anywhere) and the latter has to be some kind of record for a Georgetown player. It would also be near the NCAA leaders for a guy with a 30% assist rate.
• Hayes has been an offensive revelation for most of us. He's shooting 60% despite taking shots on 30% of the possessions he's been in. He's been the only member of the team who offensive rebounds, even if most of that was versus Maryland. But somehow his offensive efficiency is at 93.7 -- that's around Mikael Hopkins levels. What? How? Well, Hayes is making 60% of his 2s. But he's only 5-10 from the line and much more importantly, he's turning the ball over on 27% of his possessions. That's ugly, and takes him from a nice low post option to concerning on offense. Especially concerning is that he's the only person who is rebounding, so he almost needs to play.
• The main culprit on rebounding for me is Isaac. He was our best defensive rebounder in Big East play last year and showed flashes on the offensive boards. This year, he's at 13% and 4% respectively, both awful numbers for a guy playing a lot of minutes at PF. You could sum up the Hoyas so far with Isaac's play: pretty darn good shooting (Ike is shooting at 70% TS% -- fantastic -- but he's turning the ball over at a 27% rate and he's not rebounding. Extra props to him for getting his assist rate up but those two weaknesses must change. TOs weren't a big issue last year and he could rebound, so there's hope. And honestly, he should get more praise for his shooting run: 63% on 2s, 50% on 3s so far.
• But it's turnovers and rebounding that have been the issue for us. In addition to Hayes and Copeland, Cameron (29%), Campbell (27%) and Kaleb Johnson with an ungodly 54% add to the turnover issues. Overall, our turnover % is 3% higher than our opponents.
• Add in that our offensive rebounding % is 7% lower, and everyone is taking more shots than us. It's great that we shoot better than our opponents, but man, we are making it hard. The culprits on rebounding are basically everyone not named Bradley Hayes, but it's worth noting that besides Isaac, Derrickson and Govan have also been awful on the boards for being big men. Cameron does not rebound at all so far, either, but we really can't have a rotation of four men down low, and have 3 of them be poor rebounders.
• Govan has had the weirdest opening of the season. The low minutes disguise his start, but to offset the bad rebounding, he's second on the team in offensive efficiency, and he's blocked 10% of the 2pt shots when he's in the game! Bradley is the very opposite of an intimidating presence so far, so that's interesting to see that potential, even if Govan needs to learn not to foul. Weirder is Govan's offense. He's shooting under 40% from 2, nailed 2-3 from 3 and is shooting 13-14 from the line, which is where all that offensive efficiency is coming from. That's like the exact opposite of a big man. But I will take it -- and when he starts playing stronger down low, watch out.
• If Jessie's #2 in offensive rating, who's #1? Reggie Cameron, of course. Yes, it's really one game, but let's celebrate the greatest shooter of all time -- the dude now has an 88.2 TS%. He's 5-9 from three, 1-1 from 2 and 4-4 from the line. There's no way that continues, of course, but he's a big reason for our only win and it would be great if Reggie continued to be an asset.
• Marcus has propped up a poor shooting start to the season (3-9 from 3, 1-7 from 2) by not turning the ball over and dishing some assists. I'd like to see stronger rebounding, but his strong start in unexpected areas, like Govan, bodes well for when things do start to drop in parts of his game where we expected him to perform better.
• LJ Peak is settling in around mediocre on offense. He's still missing everything from three, but he's a passable 50% from 2, has cut down on turnovers and is a decent-but-not-great 70% from the line. It's early, of course, but those small improvements will make it much more palatable for play LJ for his defense and potential. Last year, his offense became a real drag at times, especially when you were just waiting for a good game or two between the empty ones.
• We've been a bubble team so far, with our offense better than our defense and mostly on the backs of simply shooting better than our opponents. We've been losing possessions and getting killed on the boards -- rebounds is how we stayed in the Maryland game, how we lost to Radford and how the Wisconsin game wasn't a massive blowout in our favor. I think the rebounding can be fixable. I'm worried the turnovers aren't for some players -- the freshmen are freshmen, and watching Hayes -- that's so much to fix in year. But more PT for DSR may help there as well.

[aleutianhoya]

Nov 21, 2015 10:26:49 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

And there's a few things in there that run counter to what I think a lot of people think about the performance so far, and it's mostly because we focus too much on points.

• DSR's offensive numbers are a little worse than last year, but not much. Yes, he's shooting a bit worse and he's played less minutes because of foul trouble, but he's assisting on 30% of the baskets when he's in the game, and his turnover rate is now 8%. The first number is similar to what Chris Wright put up in his best year (and would be considered a pretty good assist rate anywhere) and the latter has to be some kind of record for a Georgetown player. It would also be near the NCAA leaders for a guy with a 30% assist rate.
• Hayes has been an offensive revelation for most of us. He's shooting 60% despite taking shots on 30% of the possessions he's been in. He's been the only member of the team who offensive rebounds, even if most of that was versus Maryland. But somehow his offensive efficiency is at 93.7 -- that's around Mikael Hopkins levels. What? How? Well, Hayes is making 60% of his 2s. But he's only 5-10 from the line and much more importantly, he's turning the ball over on 27% of his possessions. That's ugly, and takes him from a nice low post option to concerning on offense. Especially concerning is that he's the only person who is rebounding, so he almost needs to play.
• The main culprit on rebounding for me is Isaac. He was our best defensive rebounder in Big East play last year and showed flashes on the offensive boards. This year, he's at 13% and 4% respectively, both awful numbers for a guy playing a lot of minutes at PF. You could sum up the Hoyas so far with Isaac's play: pretty darn good shooting (Ike is shooting at 70% TS% -- fantastic -- but he's turning the ball over at a 27% rate and he's not rebounding. Extra props to him for getting his assist rate up but those two weaknesses must change. TOs weren't a big issue last year and he could rebound, so there's hope. And honestly, he should get more praise for his shooting run: 63% on 2s, 50% on 3s so far.
• But it's turnovers and rebounding that have been the issue for us. In addition to Hayes and Copeland, Cameron (29%), Campbell (27%) and Kaleb Johnson with an ungodly 54% add to the turnover issues. Overall, our turnover % is 3% higher than our opponents.
• Add in that our offensive rebounding % is 7% lower, and everyone is taking more shots than us. It's great that we shoot better than our opponents, but man, we are making it hard. The culprits on rebounding are basically everyone not named Bradley Hayes, but it's worth noting that besides Isaac, Derrickson and Govan have also been awful on the boards for being big men. Cameron does not rebound at all so far, either, but we really can't have a rotation of four men down low, and have 3 of them be poor rebounders.
• Govan has had the weirdest opening of the season. The low minutes disguise his start, but to offset the bad rebounding, he's second on the team in offensive efficiency, and he's blocked 10% of the 2pt shots when he's in the game! Bradley is the very opposite of an intimidating presence so far, so that's interesting to see that potential, even if Govan needs to learn not to foul. Weirder is Govan's offense. He's shooting under 40% from 2, nailed 2-3 from 3 and is shooting 13-14 from the line, which is where all that offensive efficiency is coming from. That's like the exact opposite of a big man. But I will take it -- and when he starts playing stronger down low, watch out.
• If Jessie's #2 in offensive rating, who's #1? Reggie Cameron, of course. Yes, it's really one game, but let's celebrate the greatest shooter of all time -- the dude now has an 88.2 TS%. He's 5-9 from three, 1-1 from 2 and 4-4 from the line. There's no way that continues, of course, but he's a big reason for our only win and it would be great if Reggie continued to be an asset.
• Marcus has propped up a poor shooting start to the season (3-9 from 3, 1-7 from 2) by not turning the ball over and dishing some assists. I'd like to see stronger rebounding, but his strong start in unexpected areas, like Govan, bodes well for when things do start to drop in parts of his game where we expected him to perform better.
• LJ Peak is settling in around mediocre on offense. He's still missing everything from three, but he's a passable 50% from 2, has cut down on turnovers and is a decent-but-not-great 70% from the line. It's early, of course, but those small improvements will make it much more palatable for play LJ for his defense and potential. Last year, his offense became a real drag at times, especially when you were just waiting for a good game or two between the empty ones.
• We've been a bubble team so far, with our offense better than our defense and mostly on the backs of simply shooting better than our opponents. We've been losing possessions and getting killed on the boards -- rebounds is how we stayed in the Maryland game, how we lost to Radford and how the Wisconsin game wasn't a massive blowout in our favor. I think the rebounding can be fixable. I'm worried the turnovers aren't for some players -- the freshmen are freshmen, and watching Hayes -- that's so much to fix in year. But more PT for DSR may help there as well.

Thanks, SF. Always helpful to see where and how the conventional wisdom is inaccurate. I see no reason Marcus cant greatly improve on the boards. Rebounds are a particularly tough stat this early to analyze, especially since so much depends on who guys have played with so far.

[SFHoya99]

Yeah, and frankly three games in is too early for any kind of prognostication, but I thought it was interesting.

[sleepy]

Nov 21, 2015 10:57:45 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Yeah, and frankly three games in is too early for any kind of prognostication, but I thought it was interesting.

Definitely interesting. Turnovers is definitely an area I think needs improvement but also an area that I think can be improved throughout the season as players gain more in game experience an gel. Rebounding is definitely a bigger issue moving forward. I think Copeland started getting back on track in this regard against Wisconsin but we will need the freshman and Hayes to really step up here.

[Deleted]

Always interesting to look at early season stats since they're basically meaningless due to the small sample size but a couple more (Some the same haha)...

5 players: avg over 9 points a game, but nobody more that 14 (Hayes, Ike, D, Peak, Jessie). Amazing 2 are centers.We're getting 22 and 10 from our center position after 3 games.

Jessie: 13-14 from the Ft line 92%

Peak: averaging over 5ft's a game (17 total 70% from the line) Needs to keep attacking that number while solid can and should go up.

DSR: 40% from the field 33% from 3 67% from the line, ouch... But we know that will not continue

Ike: 13ppg 57% from 2 50% from 3 (5-10) Perfect from the line (Ties an Ncaa record.... Nice.

Has been really good in big moments hitting a lot of shots in clutch moments. Definitely love seeing a young player want to take those high pressure shots when a team is making a run or you need a bucket. Problem is he doesn't show that sense of urgency for 40 minutes. Still floating too much. Showing he has the skills to take over but not the killer mentality yet to give an opposing team 40 minutes of his best. Once he takes that step he will be a major problem.

Bench Scoring: 17 PPG 9rbds from our bench led by Jessie at 9 and 3. Cam 5-9 from 3 but 4 of those 5 against Wisky. Kid can shoot it, it's always mental with him. He hit a 3 off a flare screen yesterday a shot he was damn near automatic in HS. Love that action out our sets Hollis used to get a ton of open looks of it. As long as his confidence is up he will make shots but his passing and decision making on the move yesterday was most impressive.

[calhoya]

Ike is improving significantly from game to game. I believe that he is playing much farther from the basket than last year and this may account for some of the poor rebounding. Turnovers also may be explained by the fact that he has been playing with the ball more this year and still lacks ball handling skills.

[HometownHoya]

Rebounding, Rebounding, Rebounding


Hopefully we'll do more of it today

[canissaxa]

Nov 21, 2015 10:26:49 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

I think the rebounding can be fixable. I'm worried the turnovers aren't for some players -- the freshmen are freshmen, and watching Hayes -- that's so much to fix in year. But more PT for DSR may help there as well.

Man, I love a well-reasoned, data-driven post. Thank you for that. Learned a lot from it.

Will disagree with the turnover fixability--at least in part. Johnson and Cameron have both turned the ball over with some passes around the top of the key. That's inexperience and you see it with every freshman in our system (and Cameron basically counts as a freshman with his past PT). A number of Hayes' turnovers have been holding it too long and not having awareness of a double coming from the blind side. Again, common mistake for players adjusting the speed and intensity of the college game.

I think those types of turnovers should go down as the season progresses. The harder to fix turnovers seems to be guards who drive a bit out of control or any player who tries to make too tough a pass. Those mistakes are based on instincts, which requires relearning instincts, and that takes time.

[SaxaCD]

Nov 21, 2015 10:46:28 GMT -5 aleutianhoya said:

Nov 21, 2015 10:26:49 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

And there's a few things in there that run counter to what I think a lot of people think about the performance so far, and it's mostly because we focus too much on points.

• DSR's offensive numbers are a little worse than last year, but not much. Yes, he's shooting a bit worse and he's played less minutes because of foul trouble, but he's assisting on 30% of the baskets when he's in the game, and his turnover rate is now 8%. The first number is similar to what Chris Wright put up in his best year (and would be considered a pretty good assist rate anywhere) and the latter has to be some kind of record for a Georgetown player. It would also be near the NCAA leaders for a guy with a 30% assist rate.
• Hayes has been an offensive revelation for most of us. He's shooting 60% despite taking shots on 30% of the possessions he's been in. He's been the only member of the team who offensive rebounds, even if most of that was versus Maryland. But somehow his offensive efficiency is at 93.7 -- that's around Mikael Hopkins levels. What? How? Well, Hayes is making 60% of his 2s. But he's only 5-10 from the line and much more importantly, he's turning the ball over on 27% of his possessions. That's ugly, and takes him from a nice low post option to concerning on offense. Especially concerning is that he's the only person who is rebounding, so he almost needs to play.
• The main culprit on rebounding for me is Isaac. He was our best defensive rebounder in Big East play last year and showed flashes on the offensive boards. This year, he's at 13% and 4% respectively, both awful numbers for a guy playing a lot of minutes at PF. You could sum up the Hoyas so far with Isaac's play: pretty darn good shooting (Ike is shooting at 70% TS% -- fantastic -- but he's turning the ball over at a 27% rate and he's not rebounding. Extra props to him for getting his assist rate up but those two weaknesses must change. TOs weren't a big issue last year and he could rebound, so there's hope. And honestly, he should get more praise for his shooting run: 63% on 2s, 50% on 3s so far.
• But it's turnovers and rebounding that have been the issue for us. In addition to Hayes and Copeland, Cameron (29%), Campbell (27%) and Kaleb Johnson with an ungodly 54% add to the turnover issues. Overall, our turnover % is 3% higher than our opponents.
• Add in that our offensive rebounding % is 7% lower, and everyone is taking more shots than us. It's great that we shoot better than our opponents, but man, we are making it hard. The culprits on rebounding are basically everyone not named Bradley Hayes, but it's worth noting that besides Isaac, Derrickson and Govan have also been awful on the boards for being big men. Cameron does not rebound at all so far, either, but we really can't have a rotation of four men down low, and have 3 of them be poor rebounders.
• Govan has had the weirdest opening of the season. The low minutes disguise his start, but to offset the bad rebounding, he's second on the team in offensive efficiency, and he's blocked 10% of the 2pt shots when he's in the game! Bradley is the very opposite of an intimidating presence so far, so that's interesting to see that potential, even if Govan needs to learn not to foul. Weirder is Govan's offense. He's shooting under 40% from 2, nailed 2-3 from 3 and is shooting 13-14 from the line, which is where all that offensive efficiency is coming from. That's like the exact opposite of a big man. But I will take it -- and when he starts playing stronger down low, watch out.
• If Jessie's #2 in offensive rating, who's #1? Reggie Cameron, of course. Yes, it's really one game, but let's celebrate the greatest shooter of all time -- the dude now has an 88.2 TS%. He's 5-9 from three, 1-1 from 2 and 4-4 from the line. There's no way that continues, of course, but he's a big reason for our only win and it would be great if Reggie continued to be an asset.
• Marcus has propped up a poor shooting start to the season (3-9 from 3, 1-7 from 2) by not turning the ball over and dishing some assists. I'd like to see stronger rebounding, but his strong start in unexpected areas, like Govan, bodes well for when things do start to drop in parts of his game where we expected him to perform better.
• LJ Peak is settling in around mediocre on offense. He's still missing everything from three, but he's a passable 50% from 2, has cut down on turnovers and is a decent-but-not-great 70% from the line. It's early, of course, but those small improvements will make it much more palatable for play LJ for his defense and potential. Last year, his offense became a real drag at times, especially when you were just waiting for a good game or two between the empty ones.
• We've been a bubble team so far, with our offense better than our defense and mostly on the backs of simply shooting better than our opponents. We've been losing possessions and getting killed on the boards -- rebounds is how we stayed in the Maryland game, how we lost to Radford and how the Wisconsin game wasn't a massive blowout in our favor. I think the rebounding can be fixable. I'm worried the turnovers aren't for some players -- the freshmen are freshmen, and watching Hayes -- that's so much to fix in year. But more PT for DSR may help there as well.

Thanks, SF. Always helpful to see where and how the conventional wisdom is inaccurate. I see no reason Marcus cant greatly improve on the boards. Rebounds are a particularly tough stat this early to analyze, especially since so much depends on who guys have played with so far.

Marcus seems to box out quite well, watching him, but maybe his move from there to the ball hasn't been the quickest. I actually think he's been around a lot of balls, and has had his hands on quite a few, but just hasn't squeezed the rebound all the way into a possession. I think that will come. His work as the shot goes up leads me to believe that his board numbers will have to go up as the year goes on.

[prhoya]

Many of his teammates have said that Marcus is a great rebounder. I think he is just catching up to the game and he has been thrown into the fire vs great competition. Lets see how he rebounds in December. I'm looking forward to seeing Marcus play more.