SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jun 30, 2015 15:27:16 GMT -5
Yours to answer as you please... - Other than DSR, where's the offense coming from next year? No established post presence or offensive rebounding, an on again, off again, transition game and no one who can reliably get to the rim and convert or distribute. Or I am wrong about one of those things?
- Which of the sophomores is making the leap? Or is it no one?
- Is the rotating monster of Hayes, Agau, Govan and whomever else enough to actually hold down the middle? Or will it doom this team next year? Or will it be an improvement on Smith/Hopkins/Younger Hayes?
- Is three guards + Kaleb Johnson enough? Do we last the year? Are our guards worn out? Can Paul White really play the 2?
- Will the departure of Bowen, Hopkins, Smith and Trawick end our foul troubles? Or is a bigger change needed?
- The defense: better or worse next year than last year?
- Where do we finish in the Big East? What's our final AP ranking?
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Jun 30, 2015 16:32:53 GMT -5
As to #1, I think it's going to be by committee with JT3 relying on the Princeton principles to help get shots (at least in the half court).
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SaxaCD
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Post by SaxaCD on Jun 30, 2015 21:00:53 GMT -5
As to #1, I think it's going to be by committee with JT3 relying on the Princeton principles to help get shots (at least in the half court). I agree -- I think that Copeland, White and Tre are already very solid offensive options, and if LJ gains consistency and the newbies can contribute some, I think we are actually well ahead of the game in terms of that question.
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SaxaCD
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Post by SaxaCD on Jun 30, 2015 21:12:13 GMT -5
Yours to answer as you please... - Other than DSR, where's the offense coming from next year? No established post presence or offensive rebounding, an on again, off again, transition game and no one who can reliably get to the rim and convert or distribute. Or I am wrong about one of those things?
- Which of the sophomores is making the leap? Or is it no one?
- Is the rotating monster of Hayes, Agau, Govan and whomever else enough to actually hold down the middle? Or will it doom this team next year? Or will it be an improvement on Smith/Hopkins/Younger Hayes?
- Is three guards + Kaleb Johnson enough? Do we last the year? Are our guards worn out? Can Paul White really play the 2?
- Will the departure of Bowen, Hopkins, Smith and Trawick end our foul troubles? Or is a bigger change needed?
- The defense: better or worse next year than last year?
- Where do we finish in the Big East? What's our final AP ranking?
My expectations for the year based on these questions: 1) I think Tre, White, Cope, and DSR are very talented offensive players, and I don't really have a lot of concerns here. Post presence might very well be an issue, but I don't see a lack of scoring options on this team. 2) I think Ike made his leap already; I think the leap the other guys need to make is in consistency, and I see both White and LJ doing that. The degree to which the leap is made will be key to our overall success. It will be interesting to see if Hayes can build off his post-season, so he might be a sleeper here in this category (and for him to make a leap would just mean for him to be a consistent, non-worrisome part of the rotation). 3) This is a huge question right now. Hoping the bigs step up. I'm still unsure of how the trade-off between the guys last year and the guys this year will work. We will really miss Hop's huge blocks, but not having his fouling and "offense"around will hopefully mitigate that somewhat, and as much as Smith was a force in small bursts, he couldn't keep himself on the court and disrupted flow because he seemed to be playing a different game out there than his teammates were. So if the big guys can fit in better (on rotations, agility and speed, etc) this year, it will help a lot. The post play on O and D is a big "if" though, so this will really bear watching. 4) Enough. Great to have another A+ ballhandler, but I think what we have is enough, if employed wisely. 5) Foul troubles won't end, but they should hopefully improve a good deal, especially once Govan and Marcus adjust to the speed of the college game. Lots of long arms to disrupt things before the need to hack even arises. 6) Better in the open floor, worse in the half court, unless somebody makes a "defensive leap" in abilities. 7) Top 2 Big East, Top 15 nationally
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Jul 1, 2015 7:25:50 GMT -5
Yours to answer as you please... - Other than DSR, where's the offense coming from next year? No established post presence or offensive rebounding, an on again, off again, transition game and no one who can reliably get to the rim and convert or distribute. Or I am wrong about one of those things?
- Which of the sophomores is making the leap? Or is it no one?
- Is the rotating monster of Hayes, Agau, Govan and whomever else enough to actually hold down the middle? Or will it doom this team next year? Or will it be an improvement on Smith/Hopkins/Younger Hayes?
- Is three guards + Kaleb Johnson enough? Do we last the year? Are our guards worn out? Can Paul White really play the 2?
- Will the departure of Bowen, Hopkins, Smith and Trawick end our foul troubles? Or is a bigger change needed?
- The defense: better or worse next year than last year?
- Where do we finish in the Big East? What's our final AP ranking?
All valid questions that I'm still considering. Thanks a lot, SF, for derailing my typical offseason ramping up of irrational expectations with legitimate concerns.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Jul 1, 2015 7:30:02 GMT -5
Yours to answer as you please... - Other than DSR, where's the offense coming from next year? No established post presence or offensive rebounding, an on again, off again, transition game and no one who can reliably get to the rim and convert or distribute. Or I am wrong about one of those things?
- Which of the sophomores is making the leap? Or is it no one?
- Is the rotating monster of Hayes, Agau, Govan and whomever else enough to actually hold down the middle? Or will it doom this team next year? Or will it be an improvement on Smith/Hopkins/Younger Hayes?
- Is three guards + Kaleb Johnson enough? Do we last the year? Are our guards worn out? Can Paul White really play the 2?
- Will the departure of Bowen, Hopkins, Smith and Trawick end our foul troubles? Or is a bigger change needed?
- The defense: better or worse next year than last year?
- Where do we finish in the Big East? What's our final AP ranking?
1. I would think Copeland picks up the scoring numbers but we have to be realistic and understand that not everyone is going to average 15 ppg. 2. I think any of them could, but the staff gives the impression that they lose interest with those that do not make a jump. 3. The middle will be a ongoing problem all year. Hayes will get more time than we expect and it won't be easy to watch. Agau is a more mobile version of Ayegba but he's still a project. Other than Greg Monroe, big men have always struggled as freshmen in the III playbook. 4. Three guards probably is enough if you expect to run DSR 39 mins. a game. White is not a 2. 5. Foul trouble never goes away, it just moves to the next generation. 6. Defense: worse in the half court. 7. Big East: Third or fourth. Villanova and probably Butler get the top two and then it's tiebreakers between Georgetown, X, and Providence, with Marquette and Creighton as spoilers and a scramble a the bottom with a same-old DePaul team, a start-over at St. John's, and a Seton Hall team which could implode if Willard doesn't control Isaiah Whitehead. Third or fourth in the Big East is only good for a mid-20's AP ranking, if that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2015 9:57:09 GMT -5
1) Copeland Peak and White are all capable of avg double figures next year depending on minutes and opportunities
4) Yessr, see the Xavier game in the BET... He's probably the best passer on the team and regardless of what you label him, he is very capable of initiating offense and creating for others...
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Jul 1, 2015 11:38:13 GMT -5
Who are these mythical teams playing more than 3 guards? Of the final 4 teams only UK played more than 3 guards all year and they lost. Hell for a month Duke played 6 players in total. Fellas we have enough players at each position. Let's Go! Hoya Saxa......
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Jul 1, 2015 14:01:06 GMT -5
Who are these mythical teams playing more than 3 guards? Of the final 4 teams only UK played more than 3 guards all year and they lost. Hell for a month Duke played 6 players in total. Fellas we have enough players at each position. Let's Go! Hoya Saxa...... Duke played 4 guards in the tourney, same with Michgan St... I do agree it'll work out fine barring injury this season.. 2016 is another story.. I want to see what a lineup of DSR, Peak, White, Copeland & Derrickson can do offensively.. I think they can be dynamic..
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jul 1, 2015 16:50:28 GMT -5
1. Aside from DSR, I see offense primarily coming from Campbell, Copeland, White, Peak, and probably a wide distribution in the front court (in other words, nobody with huge numbers but all with okay numbers). Who can shoot the three on this team? Aside from DSR, Campbell is the only one who has actually shot well in games. As I've said in many other threads, Campbell was way better than he got credit for last year. If anything, I think he deserved more playing time (especially against Utah).
The lack of post presence is interesting. That's the one thing Smith gave us that we will be lacking (despite his other flaws). I do think Govan will step up more than we expect.
2. Generally, JTIII guards have made a nice jump between freshman and sophomore year. I'll go with Campbell. I think Copeland will be better, but people are going to be disappointed when they (unfairly) expect him to be Otto Porter. I also think people are unfairly expecting too much from Peak too. Don't get me wrong - I think both will be good, I just don't want to get ahead of ourselves.
3. I actually think the front court will be a breath of fresh air. We lose Hopkins and Smith's inability to play without fouling. As long as the new bunch doesn't start fouling at the same crazy clip, I think that will help too. Plus, we no longer have Hopkins' sub-par offense sucking the life out of the front court (no offense to Hopkins, I liked him, he just played a bigger offensive role than he should have played). I don't think the front court will be spectacular, but I also don't think it will be as bad as it's been in recent years, either.
4. Assuming we don't have injuries, I think our guard strength is fine. As it is, we are overflowing with wings/front court players. I doubt JTIII will frequently play more than 2 guards at the same time anyway, so I think we're fine. If DSR gets injured, we are screwed for more reasons than our lack of depth.
5. I do think the departure of Bowen, Hopkins, Smith and Trawick will be a huge boost to our foul trouble, especially Hopkins and Smith. Govan and the other youthful players might have to go through some adjustments, but I think we'll be better overall.
6. I think the defense will be better.
7. I think we will finish in the 1-3 range in the Big East. As for the AP ranking, it often is based on order of wins rather than overall wins. Thus, I think there's a good chance we get some good wins in the fall and then gradually dip a bit in the ratings. My prediction is that our peak is a ranking in the top 5-10 range, and our year-end is 17 (of course, this is my somewhat realistic side; the fan side says we're easy top 15 all year).
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jul 1, 2015 17:34:55 GMT -5
Who can shoot the three on this team? Aside from DSR, Campbell is the only one who has actually shot well in games. Good post 2003, I think you make a reasonable, conservative assessment. I would like to quibble with the above however. Ike shot 3s at a 39% clip as a frosh. I'd say that qualifies as "shooting well in games". The other point I'd add, I believe Govan is going to make an impact at the offensive end in his frosh season. He is quite an accomplished cat on O. No, he doesn't have the post moves of Smith - but who does? On the other hand, he's far more likely to stay on the court because he's already in much better shape and he won't pick up a foul in the first 30 seconds of each half. Smith had his moments, but he was inconsistent and not someone we could count on each game. OK, one more. I also expect Derrickson to surprise to the upside early. And kid who is so devoted to his conditioning to lose 40 Lbs AND run a half marathon? All reports say he can shoot the three too. Just a hunch, but I think he's going to be a very pleasant surprise.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Jul 2, 2015 5:08:05 GMT -5
If Derrickson is ready next year, I'm intrigued by a potential "small ball" front court of Ike, Paul, and Marcus. Lots of shooting on offense, think they could hang on defense.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jul 2, 2015 7:55:34 GMT -5
The guard situation doesn't really concern me. Sure, with extended injury or severe foul trouble in a given game, we're left lacking at the one, but there are ways to deal with that if we absolutely had to through other personnel who can at least handle the ball. And, let's face it, an extended injury to any key player is a huge problem for us. That's just life for virtually every team.
Regarding defense, I think we're better overall this year and I think it likely the fouling goes down. I expect a fair amount of zone because I think this particular group is well suited to play it well. I mean, sure we lose Jabril and Mikael, but both guys fouled a ton, and Josh played around 10% of the total overall minutes on the floor and was a huge liability. Some of this year will depend on someone playing the five that can execute without fouling on defense, and it's impossible to predict that at this stage. But even if the five is a defensive issue for us, it's still going to be no worse (in my view) than the combined efforts of Josh and Mikael. So, our defensive floor probably is just a bit worse than last year, but our upside is much higher.
Regarding 1: Someone already mentioned that we will rely on our half-court motion much more this year, and I think that's the most interesting topic. Really, there have been very few years during III's tenure where he has been able to put on the floor a collection of players well suited to running Princeton sets for extended minutes. Most often, the "problem" has been having a five that can't really command attention outside of five feet. (Obviously, plenty of years, that wasn't really a "problem" at all. See Roy.)
Those of us who have recognized that have often responded to those complaining about the offense that we don't really run a Princeton offense. This year may well be different. Or not. Is III committed to using someone in the true low post for an appreciable period. Most games over the past couple years, we began each half by dumping it into a guy (Mikael) who had no low post ability. So, is III committed to trying to play inside out if possible? Or will we see Govan (or someone else) with a green light and the ability to extend the defense? If he has the ability, I'd expect to see a green light and I think our offense will be fun to watch.
Finally, I think the entire key for the season isn't getting big "jumps" from the sophomores, but rather getting consistent play. All of them had moments of excellent play, and all of them disappeared (or worse) for extended stretches (LJ and Paul most obviously). Tre, I suppose, is the one exception to that, since I thought his play was fairly consistent during his time on the court. In any event, they don't need to all be excellent every game, but their floor in any given game has to rise. Said differently, Ike averaged 7 and 4 last year (that's it!) and that's because he had some big games and he had some non-existent games. If he can fairly consistently get to 12 and 6, we're going to be in good shape as far his production goes. It'd be great if he has a 10 and 5 game and we're considering it an "off" game for him. You could provide different metrics for the other guys along the same lines. So the key there is consistency. So if that happens -- if Paul, Ike, LJ, and Tre play, at worse, merely "OK to well" every game, I think we'll have a special year.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jul 2, 2015 8:27:15 GMT -5
Regarding defense, I think we're better overall this year and I think it likely the fouling goes down. I expect a fair amount of zone because I think this particular group is well suited to play it well. I mean, sure we lose Jabril and Mikael, but both guys fouled a ton, and Josh played around 10% of the total overall minutes on the floor and was a huge liability. Some of this year will depend on someone playing the five that can execute without fouling on defense, and it's impossible to predict that at this stage. But even if the five is a defensive issue for us, it's still going to be no worse (in my view) than the combined efforts of Josh and Mikael. So, our defensive floor probably is just a bit worse than last year, but our upside is much higher. I'm not sure how I feel about our interior defense, but I would point out that Josh played 51% of available minutes last year and Mikael 55%. I don't really get the collective Josh-bashing that goes on on this board (actually, I get it -- he's fat) but he played about half the time and as often as Mikael. He rebounded a little better. The defense did not fall apart around him. Did he have the potential to be better? Sure, but he was the second best player on the team last year, and it wasn't really close. As for the defense... I'm fairly worried for several reasons: 1) I'm not sure how Hayes and Govan are going to provide improved interior defense though Hayes' tourney made me feel a LOT better. 2) I am not convinced that we know how to not foul within the new rules even with our worst offenders graduating 3) We are going to get destroyed on the boards 4) I wonder if we shouldn't switch to a higher pressure defense to generate offense because I fear for our half court offense. I mean, we aren't going to be bad. We were a Top 20-30 team last year and I don't expect us to be worse. When I express concern, it's that we're not reaching for Top 15 or Top 10. I like Govan's offensive skill set. I simply don't think he's likely to command a double team as a freshman, and that's the level of low post play you need to really make a difference -- 55%+. I'd actually like to see White posting up more -- he seems to have that hook down. And I'd love to see Marcus-Derrickson-as-Draymond-Green-as-center. I think he's strong enough to hold his own on D against most of these guys. Then bring him to the perimeter on offense and let us drive and cut our way with their guys away from the hoop. Would be fantastic. And I think this team would absolutely KILL if they could run the Princeton Man Offense like the 06 Hoyas. Peak and Copeland are ideal cutters; Tre and DSR can spot up for 3; White and DSR are strong passers and find the holes. But it requires a level of commitment and effort on the court that many of our teams have lacked. We got our best buy in with a bunch of unranked recruits and Esherick-holdovers who were sick of losing. Will Top 100 recruits really want to cut all day? This team has to run on the break, but I think it has to run in the half-court, too. It needs the Princeton/Motion/Offense-generated offense because we really don't have much else. I hope you are right. I don't think we have an Otto-leap coming, so I hope we don't need one. That said, if we got the good game -- maybe the 75th percentile game of each player from last year for most games this year, the team will be good. Did we ever have all four freshmen playing well in a game last year? I don't remember.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jul 2, 2015 8:48:09 GMT -5
Regarding defense, I think we're better overall this year and I think it likely the fouling goes down. I expect a fair amount of zone because I think this particular group is well suited to play it well. I mean, sure we lose Jabril and Mikael, but both guys fouled a ton, and Josh played around 10% of the total overall minutes on the floor and was a huge liability. Some of this year will depend on someone playing the five that can execute without fouling on defense, and it's impossible to predict that at this stage. But even if the five is a defensive issue for us, it's still going to be no worse (in my view) than the combined efforts of Josh and Mikael. So, our defensive floor probably is just a bit worse than last year, but our upside is much higher. I'm not sure how I feel about our interior defense, but I would point out that Josh played 51% of available minutes last year and Mikael 55%. I don't really get the collective Josh-bashing that goes on on this board (actually, I get it -- he's fat) but he played about half the time and as often as Mikael. He rebounded a little better. The defense did not fall apart around him. Did he have the potential to be better? Sure, but he was the second best player on the team last year, and it wasn't really close. As for the defense... I'm fairly worried for several reasons: 1) I'm not sure how Hayes and Govan are going to provide improved interior defense though Hayes' tourney made me feel a LOT better. 2) I am not convinced that we know how to not foul within the new rules even with our worst offenders graduating 3) We are going to get destroyed on the boards 4) I wonder if we shouldn't switch to a higher pressure defense to generate offense because I fear for our half court offense. I mean, we aren't going to be bad. We were a Top 20-30 team last year and I don't expect us to be worse. When I express concern, it's that we're not reaching for Top 15 or Top 10. I like Govan's offensive skill set. I simply don't think he's likely to command a double team as a freshman, and that's the level of low post play you need to really make a difference -- 55%+. I'd actually like to see White posting up more -- he seems to have that hook down. And I'd love to see Marcus-Derrickson-as-Draymond-Green-as-center. I think he's strong enough to hold his own on D against most of these guys. Then bring him to the perimeter on offense and let us drive and cut our way with their guys away from the hoop. Would be fantastic. And I think this team would absolutely KILL if they could run the Princeton Man Offense like the 06 Hoyas. Peak and Copeland are ideal cutters; Tre and DSR can spot up for 3; White and DSR are strong passers and find the holes. But it requires a level of commitment and effort on the court that many of our teams have lacked. We got our best buy in with a bunch of unranked recruits and Esherick-holdovers who were sick of losing. Will Top 100 recruits really want to cut all day? This team has to run on the break, but I think it has to run in the half-court, too. It needs the Princeton/Motion/Offense-generated offense because we really don't have much else. I hope you are right. I don't think we have an Otto-leap coming, so I hope we don't need one. That said, if we got the good game -- maybe the 75th percentile game of each player from last year for most games this year, the team will be good. Did we ever have all four freshmen playing well in a game last year? I don't remember. No, we never did. I'm not sure we had three of them playing well more than a couple of times (considering that Paul and LJ really didn't play well in a great number of games). That's why I think incremental improvement from all can be a huge boon. As for Josh, I'm with you. I think his is a huge loss (go ahead, make a joke...). He gave us an offensive option during games when we needed one. And, as you say, his rebounding and defense weren't nearly as bad as people believed. But let's not fully sugar-coat it: his lack of mobility killed our ability to defend a screen-roll game, and he also limited our ability to play a successful zone against a team that knew what it was doing. Bottom line: when he was on the floor, he greatly limited our options at both ends. Sometimes, that was OK, but sometimes it wasn't. Obviously, the 06 team is the gold standard in terms of the Princeton. But you undersell the talent level. Two of the top six players on that team in terms of minutes were Roy and (an admittedly young) Jeff. I know Roy wasn't highly regarded, but he was obviously a very good player. It was really only a seven man rotation. And we got incredibly lucky that DJ (while a "re-tread" and not a high-level recruit) had a skill set that turned out to be about perfect for the offense. My point is simply that although there were some lower-ranked talent in the rotation, we had good players running it and it worked beautifully. I don't think the key was that guys were sick of losing; I think the key was that guys saw that it worked. They got layups, they got wide-open threes, and they got abject despair in the eyes of their opponents. You're more likely to cut when the last time you did, you got the ball and scored a layup. DSR is a great example: he probably made two or three great cuts in that Utah game and didn't get the ball (at least once he was visibly upset about it). Well, if (and it's a big if) our guys are skilled at making the read and the pass, he'll get rewarded this year and so will everyone else. Govan? I think you won't see him in the low post a ton. I think he'll operate in the high post and show his range (and allow for cutting simply by being out there and commanding attention). I think you'll see us run the action where he dives to the low post after making a pass, gets an entry pass, and then makes a quick move. But I don't expect anything akin to what we did with Josh (or even Mikael) where they camp out down there. That's why I think he'll be particularly valuable (or Derrickson in that role if he can pull it off). Even if the speed and strength of the game is a bit too much for him this year and his low post skills don't quite translate, he can be a huge weapon and indirect facilitator because he can make the 15 footer. I know, I know, we've said that about other guys, so we'll have to see. But that's what seems most likely.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jul 2, 2015 9:06:03 GMT -5
I think the '06 team saw that it worked -- my sig used to be a Green quote to that effect. But before they got to that point, I think they really bought in because there was absolutely no ego on that team when Thompson first came in. Lots of coachable guys. I'm not saying this group isn't coachable, but the highest ranked player on that team in terms of recruiting was either Brandon Bowman or Cornelio Guibunda. There's a difference I think.
I do think it was helpful that players like Wallace and Owens fit in perfectly -- honestly, Ashanti is pretty well suited as well. But Bowman wasn't necessarily -- aside from being a stretch four type -- and yet he found his niche.
I remember those cuts DSR made all year and never got the ball -- I feel like we've had those misses for a couple of years now. We'll have to hit those.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jul 2, 2015 9:16:34 GMT -5
I think the '06 team saw that it worked -- my sig used to be a Green quote to that effect. But before they got to that point, I think they really bought in because there was absolutely no ego on that team when Thompson first came in. Lots of coachable guys. I'm not saying this group isn't coachable, but the highest ranked player on that team in terms of recruiting was either Brandon Bowman or Cornelio Guibunda. There's a difference I think. I do think it was helpful that players like Wallace and Owens fit in perfectly -- honestly, Ashanti is pretty well suited as well. But Bowman wasn't necessarily -- aside from being a stretch four type -- and yet he found his niche. I remember those cuts DSR made all year and never got the ball -- I feel like we've had those misses for a couple of years now. We'll have to hit those. Yes, we will. And THAT is where we'll see the big jump this year. All the sophs have been in the offense for a full year (like the 06 team had a full year in the offense). Govan hasn't, but his most important role may be to just not clog the lane and make open fifteen footers. I expect the offense to run much smoother than it has the last few years because we have the right personnel, and the right level of experience with the system, to make it work. Our history shows we need both. It may not look like anyone has made a huge individual leap, but I really do think it'll make us much more dynamic overall offensively. In any event, it's going to have to!
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lichoya68
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OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Jul 2, 2015 10:21:36 GMT -5
KEY for me is will ISSAC Copeland by POY in the big east and ALL AMERICAN yup thats key as he developes so goes the hoyas. BRADLEY some good time too WORK HARD ALL six am Kenner then Italy OH MY here we go
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