aristides
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Post by aristides on Mar 25, 2015 8:42:33 GMT -5
Before I descend into my summer hibernation, I have a couple questions for the board: 1. Do you think the 15/16 Hoyas will be a better team, equivalent, or worse team than the 14/15 team? 2. Will they be ranked in the preseason? By the end of the season? With my delusions of grandeur for this team crushed, I've realized I can't trust my optimism for next years squad. And I'm really optimistic right now, so I need some perspective here. I look at the promising freshmen class playing as sophomores and my delusions start developing. DSR returning for his senior year? oh yeah.... And the handcuffs finally coming off of Bradley "Mr. March" Hayes, I am getting giddy. Add a stud freshman center to back him up and I am now guessing that next years team will be far superior to the 14/15 team. If the premise that next years team should be better is true, then it would be reasonable to expect significant time in the rankings and increased chances for a longer run in the tourney. All this has me already looking to the future with a
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 25, 2015 9:00:05 GMT -5
Before I descend into my summer hibernation, I have a couple questions for the board: 1. Do you think the 15/16 Hoyas will be a better team, equivalent, or worse team than the 14/15 team? 2. Will they be ranked in the preseason? By the end of the season? With my delusions of grandeur for this team crushed, I've realized I can't trust my optimism for next years squad. And I'm really optimistic right now, so I need some perspective here. I look at the promising freshmen class playing as sophomores and my delusions start developing. DSR returning for his senior year? oh yeah.... And the handcuffs finally coming off of Bradley "Mr. March" Hayes, I am getting giddy. Add a stud freshman center to back him up and I am now guessing that next years team will be far superior to the 14/15 team. If the premise that next years team should be better is true, then it would be reasonable to expect significant time in the rankings and increased chances for a longer run in the tourney. All this has me already looking to the future with a 1. A little better, but not much. I think the conference will be stronger though. So 10-8/11-7 would be a good target 2. With DSR getting some preseason hype I think we'll sneak into the preseason top 25 somewhere in the last couple spots.
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aristides
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Post by aristides on Mar 25, 2015 9:12:21 GMT -5
Before I descend into my summer hibernation, I have a couple questions for the board: 1. Do you think the 15/16 Hoyas will be a better team, equivalent, or worse team than the 14/15 team? 2. Will they be ranked in the preseason? By the end of the season? With my delusions of grandeur for this team crushed, I've realized I can't trust my optimism for next years squad. And I'm really optimistic right now, so I need some perspective here. I look at the promising freshmen class playing as sophomores and my delusions start developing. DSR returning for his senior year? oh yeah.... And the handcuffs finally coming off of Bradley "Mr. March" Hayes, I am getting giddy. Add a stud freshman center to back him up and I am now guessing that next years team will be far superior to the 14/15 team. If the premise that next years team should be better is true, then it would be reasonable to expect significant time in the rankings and increased chances for a longer run in the tourney. All this has me already looking to the future with a 1. A little better, but not much. I think the conference will be stronger though. So 10-8/11-7 would be a good target 2. With DSR getting some preseason hype I think we'll sneak into the preseason top 25 somewhere in the last couple spots. I can tell you're far more objective. Why only a little better? Do you think the freshman won't make much of a leap forward in their sophomore years? Do you think Josh Smith will be too difficult to replace? A stronger conference would be great. Aside from a disappointing NCAA run (so far), I'd say the conference was pretty strong this year. 10-8/11-7 would be disappointing for me. I would expect more.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Mar 25, 2015 9:13:16 GMT -5
1. I think this depends on LJ and Jesse. If LJ makes a leap with his 3pt consistency and if Jesse is worthy of 10-15 mins then we will be better. If not we will be around the same. 2. I believe we will be ranked in the preseason. We ended the season ranked and Ike created a little buzz toward the end of the regular season. The analysts will remember LJ's last game and we will be ranked between 20-22. After we beat Duke and Wisconsin we will jump up to top 10............... ??
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 25, 2015 9:20:35 GMT -5
1. A little better, but not much. I think the conference will be stronger though. So 10-8/11-7 would be a good target 2. With DSR getting some preseason hype I think we'll sneak into the preseason top 25 somewhere in the last couple spots. I can tell you're far more objective. Why only a little better? Do you think the freshman won't make much of a leap forward in their sophomore years? Do you think Josh Smith will be too difficult to replace? A stronger conference would be great. Aside from a disappointing NCAA run (so far), I'd say the conference was pretty strong this year. 10-8/11-7 would be disappointing for me. I would expect more. I don't think Smith will be missed all that much. But I also don't see a replacement at the 5 for him/Hopkins other than - possibly - an unproven freshman. Would love for Govan to come in and contribute right away, but that's asking a lot. I think the contributions of this senior class have been a bit underrated, overall. I like the potential of our rising sophomores but counting on big leaps forward from all of them seems like a stretch. If things break correctly, the freshman can be very good right away, and the sophs all arrive in November much improved, we certainly could be better. But there are a lot of ifs, IMO.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 25, 2015 9:57:44 GMT -5
I think we will certainly be better. We have 4 freshmen who now have a good feel for how hard you have to work, and who are all still developing into their bodies - not to mention Trey, who could very well contribute with an off season weight program. I expect the freshmen to make significant leaps.
How much better depends on the bigs. If Bradley can get a little quicker, and if Govan can contribute for even 10-12 minutes a game, we will be top 2 in the conference, and will be solidly in the rankings for most of the season.
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beenaround
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Post by beenaround on Mar 25, 2015 10:14:03 GMT -5
I thought the recruiting gurus around here were looking at Govan as the starter next year, or at least a 20 minutes player. If he is just playing 10 minutes, we're not gonna have much of a low post presence.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Mar 25, 2015 10:14:48 GMT -5
I can tell you're far more objective. Why only a little better? Do you think the freshman won't make much of a leap forward in their sophomore years? Do you think Josh Smith will be too difficult to replace? A stronger conference would be great. Aside from a disappointing NCAA run (so far), I'd say the conference was pretty strong this year. 10-8/11-7 would be disappointing for me. I would expect more. I don't think Smith will be missed all that much. But I also don't see a replacement at the 5 for him/Hopkins other than - possibly - an unproven freshman. Would love for Govan to come in and contribute right away, but that's asking a lot. I think the contributions of this senior class have been a bit underrated, overall. I like the potential of our rising sophomores but counting on big leaps forward from all of them seems like a stretch. If things break correctly, the freshman can be very good right away, and the sophs all arrive in November much improved, we certainly could be better. But there are a lot of ifs, IMO. I agree, but when's the last time a freshman so talented didn't make the leap on this team? The numbers seem in our favor,
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Mar 25, 2015 10:16:26 GMT -5
College hoops almost always involves a lot of "ifs".
The case for a better team in 15/16? I think it starts with Copeland. That kid is a star in the making. I mean of the Otto/Jeff level. No guarantee he gets there, but the flashes we saw this year are indicative of a really high bar. LJ Peak? If he could approach the level he displayed v Utah? We'd be on our way!
Tre? White? Each showed really good potential too. We know conventional wisdom is players typically make their biggest leap between frosh and soph.. so here's hoping.
DSR is a given. Great senior leader. Confident. Poised.
We are NOT going to miss Josh. Heck, he was missing in action most of this past year anyway. Talk about "bars", the best we could expect from Josh in terms if his motivation in any given game was maybe a C+. Then consider how often he picked up a foul in the first 30 seconds. Between foul trouble and the need for breathers due to his lack of stamina? He was barely on the court. Yes... he had his moments and his potential. I believe the team will be better off without him next year. We won't even be thinking about him.
I do expect Govan to start and play a lot of minutes. He is athletic and got himself in much better shape than a year ago. Hayes should be in the 5 mix too. JT3 showed he is not averse to playing freshman. Govan and Derrickson got themselves in better shape and could be ready to contribute soon. Johnson? Who knows. Sounds like a great kid. and we do lose 4 rotation cats from this year so there are minutes available.
Trey Mourning is an unknown. AT some point I believe he will contribute in a meaningful way, but we have no way to measure his progress or guess when he'll hit the court.
And we have another unknown. Agau. Some folks say he's been great in practice. If so, he'd be hitting the floor in late December and could be an important factor at the 4 (probably).
Lots of "ifs", but lots of potential too. JT3 gets the kids organized and ready to play and this coming season he has that early Italy trip to build the team prior to the season. And who knows, there might yet be one more addition to the roster.
We had a good season this year. Personally, I wish we had won one more game. But we didn't. Still, given what we had and the SOS we had, team did quite well. Can we do better next year? Yes - and I think we will.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 25, 2015 10:23:32 GMT -5
I thought the recruiting gurus around here were looking at Govan as the starter next year, or at least a 20 minutes player. If he is just playing 10 minutes, we're not gonna have much of a low post presence. Hoping they are right, but I always try to temper expectations for freshmen. I think that with Ike and Paul getting stronger, Agau coming in December and further development from Bradley, we can hold our own in the paint, which should be enough with the other pieces to give us a pretty good team
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 25, 2015 10:35:40 GMT -5
I don't think Smith will be missed all that much. But I also don't see a replacement at the 5 for him/Hopkins other than - possibly - an unproven freshman. Would love for Govan to come in and contribute right away, but that's asking a lot. I think the contributions of this senior class have been a bit underrated, overall. I like the potential of our rising sophomores but counting on big leaps forward from all of them seems like a stretch. If things break correctly, the freshman can be very good right away, and the sophs all arrive in November much improved, we certainly could be better. But there are a lot of ifs, IMO. I agree, but when's the last time a freshman so talented didn't make the leap on this team? The numbers seem in our favor, Copeland showed flashes, and I do have high hopes for a breakout year, but he certainly didn't produce the way, say, Porter or Monroe did their freshman season. I think he'll be really good - don't get me wrong. Just guarding my optimism a bit.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Mar 25, 2015 11:24:17 GMT -5
I agree, but when's the last time a freshman so talented didn't make the leap on this team? The numbers seem in our favor, Copeland showed flashes, and I do have high hopes for a breakout year, but he certainly didn't produce the way, say, Porter or Monroe did their freshman season. I think he'll be really good - don't get me wrong. Just guarding my optimism a bit. I don't know why people remember Otto's freshman year as being spectacular, it wasn't. He was our second leading rebounder, but outside of that was pretty average. If we took rebounding out of the equation for both players, Whitt had a much better freshman season than Otto. Also, although Cope looked lost for long stretches throughout the season, he showed much more that Otto and probably outperformed him. If we're talking about the flashes Otto showed during his freshman year then LJ, White, and even Campbell are almost on the same level if they're not there already. Nobody produced like Monroe in his first season, why would that be the standard for someone to make a significant improvement? Just trying to be objective here.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 25, 2015 11:37:16 GMT -5
Freshman year stats:
Otto Porter
9.7 ppg; 6.8 rpg; 1.5 apg; Usage: 17.3%; ORtg 117.7; 52.5% FG; 22.6% 3FG
Greg Whittington
4.3 ppg; 2.9 rpg; 0.9 apg; Usage: 14.7%; ORtg 96.7; 39.5% FG; 35.7% 3FG
Greg Monroe
12.7 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 2.5 apg; Usage 23.1%; ORtg 111.1; 57.2% FG
Isaac Copeland
6.8 ppg; 3.8 rpg; 0.7 apg; Usage 18.4%; ORtg 105.4; 45.1% FG; 38.9% 3FG
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 25, 2015 11:46:23 GMT -5
Copeland showed flashes, and I do have high hopes for a breakout year, but he certainly didn't produce the way, say, Porter or Monroe did their freshman season. I think he'll be really good - don't get me wrong. Just guarding my optimism a bit. I don't know why people remember Otto's freshman year as being spectacular, it wasn't. He was our second leading rebounder, but outside of that was pretty average. If we took rebounding out of the equation for both players, Whitt had a much better freshman season than Otto. Also, although Cope looked lost for long stretches throughout the season, he showed much more that Otto and probably outperformed him. If we're talking about the flashes Otto showed during his freshman year then LJ, White, and even Campbell are almost on the same level if they're not there already. Nobody produced like Monroe in his first season, why would that be the standard for someone to make a significant improvement? Just trying to be objective here. Porter average just under ten points a game his freshman season. Copeland just under 7. By the end of his freshman season, Porter was going double figures pretty much every game. Copeland had flashes, but freshman Porter was a lot better. EDIT: As for Whittington (!) being a bigger freshman contributor than Porter, it's not even close. Whittington scored in double figures 3 times all season. Porter? 14. And as you mention, Porter had 2.5x as many rebounds that season.
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Mar 25, 2015 11:53:33 GMT -5
I don't know why people remember Otto's freshman year as being spectacular, it wasn't. He was our second leading rebounder, but outside of that was pretty average. If we took rebounding out of the equation for both players, Whitt had a much better freshman season than Otto. Also, although Cope looked lost for long stretches throughout the season, he showed much more that Otto and probably outperformed him. If we're talking about the flashes Otto showed during his freshman year then LJ, White, and even Campbell are almost on the same level if they're not there already. Nobody produced like Monroe in his first season, why would that be the standard for someone to make a significant improvement? Just trying to be objective here. Porter average just under ten points a game his freshman season. Copeland just under 7. By the end of his freshman season, Porter was going double figures pretty much every game. Copeland had flashes, but freshman Porter was a lot better. Yeah but it was the ways in which he was scoring. I thought Otto played well, got a lot of put backs (only with his right, he still has no left hand, which Ike does) and uncontested short jumpers. The more you asked him to expand his range the more obvious his faulty mechanics became. Ike showed a lot more potential on offense, score in a greater variety of ways and he stretched out opponents on both offense and defense in ways Otto never did. Ike didn't producing in the rebounding dept like Otto did, but you have already seen flashes and heard his teammate declare him the best rebounder on the team. Otto was our 3rd or 4th option on offense while we actually saw teams try and take Ike away towards the end of the season. Otto's impact was much more of an afterthought.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 25, 2015 11:53:52 GMT -5
Copeland showed flashes, and I do have high hopes for a breakout year, but he certainly didn't produce the way, say, Porter or Monroe did their freshman season. I think he'll be really good - don't get me wrong. Just guarding my optimism a bit. I don't know why people remember Otto's freshman year as being spectacular, it wasn't. He was our second leading rebounder, but outside of that was pretty average. If we took rebounding out of the equation for both players, Whitt had a much better freshman season than Otto. Also, although Cope looked lost for long stretches throughout the season, he showed much more that Otto and probably outperformed him. If we're talking about the flashes Otto showed during his freshman year then LJ, White, and even Campbell are almost on the same level if they're not there already. Nobody produced like Monroe in his first season, why would that be the standard for someone to make a significant improvement? Just trying to be objective here. I don't think you remember Otto's frosh season, then. IMO, while Cope showed flashes, he was no Otto this season. By the end of the year, Otto was playing the most mins of anyone, except perhaps Clark. He was indispensable. While his usage was only moderate, often deferring to Srs Clark and Sims, he led the Hoyas with an ORtg of 117.5, by far the best on the team. He rebounded well on the O boards, and led us in defensive rebounding. By the end of the year, Otto was our most dangerous weapon. One could see that soph year coming. While I'm excited to have Cope, his freshman year does not measure up to Otto's.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 25, 2015 11:56:08 GMT -5
Porter average just under ten points a game his freshman season. Copeland just under 7. By the end of his freshman season, Porter was going double figures pretty much every game. Copeland had flashes, but freshman Porter was a lot better. Yeah but it was the ways in which he was scoring. I thought Otto played well, got a lot of put backs (only with his right, he still has no left hand, which Ike does) and uncontested short jumpers. The more you asked him to expand his range the more obvious his faulty mechanics became. Ike showed a lot more potential on offense, score in a greater variety of ways and he stretched out opponents on both offense and defense in ways Otto never did. Ike didn't producing in the rebounding dept like Otto did, but you have already seen flashes and heard his teammate declare him the best rebounder on the team. Otto was our 3rd or 4th option on offense while we actually saw teams try and take Ike away towards the end of the season. Otto's impact was much more of an afterthought. I disagree on Otto, but also love what Copeland can bring. So we'll see. One thing that struck me looking back on the stats from the 2011-2012 season. That team should have been a LOT better.
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aristides
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Post by aristides on Mar 25, 2015 11:58:34 GMT -5
Freshman year stats: Otto Porter9.7 ppg; 6.8 rpg; 1.5 apg; Usage: 17.3%; ORtg 117.7; 52.5% FG; 22.6% 3FG Greg Whittington4.3 ppg; 2.9 rpg; 0.9 apg; Usage: 14.7%; ORtg 96.7; 39.5% FG; 35.7% 3FG Greg Monroe12.7 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 2.5 apg; Usage 23.1%; ORtg 111.1; 57.2% FG Isaac Copeland6.8 ppg; 3.8 rpg; 0.7 apg; Usage 18.4%; ORtg 105.4; 45.1% FG; 38.9% 3FG I remember how bad Otto was shooting the 3 his 1st year. A good reminder not to draw too many conclusions regarding LJ's struggles from 3 this year. If he develops a reliable shot, oh my...
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Mar 25, 2015 12:04:48 GMT -5
I don't know why people remember Otto's freshman year as being spectacular, it wasn't. He was our second leading rebounder, but outside of that was pretty average. If we took rebounding out of the equation for both players, Whitt had a much better freshman season than Otto. Also, although Cope looked lost for long stretches throughout the season, he showed much more that Otto and probably outperformed him. If we're talking about the flashes Otto showed during his freshman year then LJ, White, and even Campbell are almost on the same level if they're not there already. Nobody produced like Monroe in his first season, why would that be the standard for someone to make a significant improvement? Just trying to be objective here. I don't think you remember Otto's frosh season, then. IMO, while Cope showed flashes, he was no Otto this season. By the end of the year, Otto was playing the most mins of anyone, except perhaps Clark. He was indispensable. While his usage was only moderate, often deferring to Srs Clark and Sims, he led the Hoyas with an ORtg of 117.5, by far the best on the team. He rebounded well on the O boards, and led us in defensive rebounding. By the end of the year, Otto was our most dangerous weapon. One could see that soph year coming. While I'm excited to have Cope, his freshman year does not measure up to Otto's. By the end of the year Otto was our most dangerous weapon?? Yeah you're right, maybe I skipped that season.
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b52legend
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Post by b52legend on Mar 25, 2015 12:04:54 GMT -5
I think we will be better next year, but I think it depends on a few things:
- Freshman honing their shots. Copeland, White and Tre all can be 40% 3 point shooters. LJ can be a 36% shooter. If they get there, this team could be very good. Fact is, in today's game, 3 point shooting is a must and we don't have much proven shooting beyond DSR. Also would throw Cameron and Derrikson into that mix. I think we need at least 3 guys on the floor at all times who are legitimate 3-point threats.
- Defensive development. We are losing arguably our three best defenders in Trawick, Bowen and Hopkins. The guys stepping into their shoes have shown flashes, but we will need them to step up big-time on the defensive end or we could get torched.
- Big Man U. Lots of new guys coming in and/or being asked to step up. Hayes performance is reason for optimism and I don't think the importance of adding Agau can be overstated. What we need most are rebounding and defense, and these are areas where bigs often develop early (before offense). In any case, while Smith would give us stretches of offensive dominance, in truth we don't lose a lot of offense with Smith (limited minutes) or Hopkins (limited ability), so I think we will be alright at the center position, and certainly much better than we were in the years following Simms departure.
- One more guard. Someone is going to have to step up and play the guard position left open with Trawick leaving. Its a gaping hole in our two deep. Maybe its Reggie or maybe its Kaleb Johnson, but we need one more guy who can give 5-10 minutes a game and/or play if fouls become an issue.
That's how I see it, and oddly I think the first is the most important. Watch the tournament. Shooting wins games. Watch the Hoyas. We make shots and we look like world beaters. We don't and the offense dies. I often want to complicate assessments, but I think a lot of our success next year depends on guys shooting 1,000 balls a day and becoming great shooters. Oh, they should mix in some defensive drills too.
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