Big East Tournament Seeds

[nathanhm]

I spent way to long today calculating the various seeds everyone in the Big East is likely to get based off the KenPom percentages and a quick read through the Big East tie breaker rules:


Georgetown
2 seed: 61%
3 seed: 35%
4 seed: 3%
5 seed: 1% (actually less)

Providence
2 seed: 32%
3 seed: 25%
4 seed: 27%
5 seed: 16%

Butler
2 seed: 7%
3 seed: 37%
4 seed: 54%
5 seed: 2%

St. John's
3 seed: 2%
4 seed: 16%
5 seed: 82%

Xavier
6 seed: 97%
7 seed: 3%

Seton Hall
6 seed: 3%
7 seed: 41%
8 seed: 56%

DePaul
7 seed: 56%
8 seed: 44%

Creighton
9 seed: 47%
10 seed: 53%

Marquette
9 seed: 53%
10 seed: 47%

I'll update as games progress but in terms of tonights games:

If Seton Hall wins:
2 seed: 85%
3 seed: 14%
4 seed: 1% (less)

If Providence wins:
2 seed: 37%
3 seed: 56%
4 seed: 6%
5 seed: 1% (less)


I'm pretty sure all my math is right but if not my apologies.

[hoyajinx]

Wow. Nice job.

[JohnnyJones]

So I think this is where we are for BET seeding:

Hoyas Win

2 seed if Butler wins @ PC
3 seed if PC beats Butler

[Makes no difference what SJU does if we win]

Hoyas Loss

3 seed if PC beats Butler [regardless of SJU outcome]
4 seed if Butler wins @ PC AND SJU loses @ Nova
5 seed if Butler wins @ PC AND SJU wins @ Nova

Please let me know if anyone thinks this is not right.

Side note: I think the front page is wrong in saying SJU can be no higher than 4. I think in the situation where we are the 5, then PC is the 4 and SJU is the 3.

[nathanhm]

Updated after yesterday's results

Providence
2 seed: 59%
3 seed: 5%
4 seed: 32%
5 seed: 4%

Georgetown
2 seed: 36%
3 seed: 59%
4 seed: 5%
5 seed: 1% (actually less)

Butler
2 seed: 5%
3 seed: 36%
4 seed: 58%
5 seed: 1%

St. John's
3 seed: 1% (actually less)
4 seed: 5%
5 seed: 94%

Xavier
6 seed: 100%

DePaul
7 seed: 91%
8 seed: 9%

Seton Hall
7 seed: 9%
8 seed: 91%

Creighton
9 seed: 60%
10 seed: 40%

Marquette
9 seed: 40%
10 seed: 60%

[JohnnyJones]

I am copying this brilliant work by DFW from the front page (I was going to do this last night, but it was too much work so just did the Hoya seed scenarios):

Want some more details on tiebreakers?

Villanova: has clinched the 1 seed.

Providence:
A 2 seed with a win over Butler
A 3 seed with loss to Butler and a Georgetown loss to Seton Hall
A 5 seed with loss to Butler, Georgetown over Seton Hall, and St. John's over Villanova

Georgetown:
A 2 seed with a win over Seton Hall and a PC loss to Butler
A 3 seed with a win over Seton Hall and a Providence win over Butler, or a loss to Seton Hall and a PC win over
Butler
A 4 seed with a loss to Seton Hall a Butler win over PC and Villanova win over St. John's
A 5 seed with a loss to Seton Hall, Butler win over PC, and St. John's win over Villanova

Butler:
A 2 seed with a win over PC and a Georgetown loss to Seton Hall
A 3 seed with a win over PC and a Georgetown win over Seton Hall
A 4 seed with a loss to PC, A GU win over Seton hall, and Villanova over St. John's
A 5 seed with a loss to PC, A GU win over Seton hall, and St. John's over Villanova

St. John's:
A 3 seed with a win over Villanova and losses by GU and Providence
A 4 seed with a win over Villanova and losses by either GU or Providence
A 5 seed with all other scenarios

Xavier: has clinched the 6 seed.

DePaul:
A 7 seed with a win over Marquette or a Georgetown win over Seton Hall
An 8 seed with a loss to Marquette and a Seton Hall win over Georgetown

Seton Hall:
A 7 seed with a win over Georgetown and a Marquette win over DePaul
An 8 seed with a loss to Georgetown or a DePaul win over Marquette

Creighton:
A 9 seed with a win over Xavier, or a DePaul win over Marquette
A 10 seed with a loss to Xavier, a DePaul win over Marquette, and St. John's finishes higher than PC

Marquette:
A 9 seed with a win over DePaul, a Creighton win over Xavier, and PC finishes higher than St. John's
A 10 seed with a loss to Xavier.

[Big Dog]

I don't understand these two:

Creighton:
A 9 seed with a win over Xavier, or a DePaul win over Marquette
A 10 seed with a loss to Xavier, a DePaul win over Marquette, and St. John's finishes higher than PC

Marquette:
A 9 seed with a win over DePaul, a Creighton win over Xavier, and PC finishes higher than St. John's
A 10 seed with a loss to Xavier.

Shouldn't Marquette as 9 seed and Creighton as 10 seed involve the exact same series of events?

Marquette is a game behind Creighton currently, so I think it must be that Marquette is the 9 seed and Creighton is the 10 seed with a Creighton loss, a Marquette win, and PC (whom Marquette beat) finishing higher than St. Johns (who Creighton beat). If any of those 3 events don't occur, then Creighton is the 9 and Marquette the 10.

[nathanhm]

Thanks Johnny

Couple things I have from my calculations (I may be totally wrong),

Georgetown is the 3 seed if Providence wins, regardless of all other outcomes.

Providence can be the 4 seed in a couple of outcomes:

If Butler beats Providence, Georgetown beats Seton Hall, and Villanova beats St. John's

OR

If Butler beats Providence, Seton Hall beats Georgetown, and St. John's beats Villanova

[JohnnyJones]

Mar 5, 2015 11:56:44 GMT -5 nathanhm said:

Thanks Johnny

Couple things I have from my calculations (I may be totally wrong),

Georgetown is the 3 seed if Providence wins, regardless of all other outcomes.

Providence can be the 4 seed in a couple of outcomes:

If Butler beats Providence, Georgetown beats Seton Hall, and Villanova beats St. John's

OR

If Butler beats Providence, Seton Hall beats Georgetown, and St. John's beats Villanova

I agree on all of those. One thing I have been thinking about is whether I would take right now a PC win, guaranteeing the 3 seed, or do we roll the dice in hopes for the 2 (risking the 4 or even 5). At the moment, I am rolling the dice. I feel very good about our chances for a W, and actually think PC v. Butler is close to a 50/50 game (I am sure PC will be favored but probably by no more than 3 points or so).

[puppydog100]

A lot to wasted energy here. How about we just let the teams play their respective games, and let the Big East Tournament begin.

[hoyas1995]

Mar 5, 2015 13:14:46 GMT -5 puppydog100 said:

A lot to wasted energy here. How about we just let the teams play their respective games, and let the Big East Tournament begin.

This is what we do on here

[nathanhm]

Mar 5, 2015 12:25:42 GMT -5 JohnnyJones said:

Mar 5, 2015 11:56:44 GMT -5 nathanhm said:

Thanks Johnny

Couple things I have from my calculations (I may be totally wrong),

Georgetown is the 3 seed if Providence wins, regardless of all other outcomes.

Providence can be the 4 seed in a couple of outcomes:

If Butler beats Providence, Georgetown beats Seton Hall, and Villanova beats St. John's

OR

If Butler beats Providence, Seton Hall beats Georgetown, and St. John's beats Villanova

I agree on all of those. One thing I have been thinking about is whether I would take right now a PC win, guaranteeing the 3 seed, or do we roll the dice in hopes for the 2 (risking the 4 or even 5). At the moment, I am rolling the dice. I feel very good about our chances for a W, and actually think PC v. Butler is close to a 50/50 game (I am sure PC will be favored but probably by no more than 3 points or so).

Personally I'm hoping for the 2 seed, I like that path better through the BET but ultimately as long as were playing Saturday night I'll be happy.


Also not sure why someone joins a thread just to tell people they don't care about the thread. Thanks for sharing, go read something else.

[Hoya06]

Thanks to everyone that put together the analysis that I am curious about but too lazy to do myself!

[JohnnyJones]

Mar 5, 2015 13:14:46 GMT -5 puppydog100 said:

A lot to wasted energy here. How about we just let the teams play their respective games, and let the Big East Tournament begin.

This is one of the funniest things I have ever read on a sports team message board.

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 5, 2015 14:57:38 GMT -5 JohnnyJones said:

Mar 5, 2015 13:14:46 GMT -5 puppydog100 said:

A lot to wasted energy here. How about we just let the teams play their respective games, and let the Big East Tournament begin.

This is one of the funniest things I have ever read on a sports team message board.

"Tonight on Crossfire, I'll read a list of facts..."

[TBird41]

Mar 5, 2015 13:15:48 GMT -5 hoyas1995 said:

Mar 5, 2015 13:14:46 GMT -5 puppydog100 said:

A lot to wasted energy here. How about we just let the teams play their respective games, and let the Big East Tournament begin.

This is what we do on here

"A lot of wasted energy"

That's pretty much Hoyatalk's motto.

[michaelgrahmstylie]

Some of you guys have way too much time on your hands. Anyone want to help read some students' essays?

[FrazierFanatic]

Mar 5, 2015 15:20:32 GMT -5 michaelgrahmstylie said:

Some of you guys have way too much time on your hands. Anyone want to help read some students' essays?

I can see it now - a 14 page thread on the proper usage of the pluperfect subjunctive tense.

[strummer8526]

Mar 5, 2015 13:14:46 GMT -5 puppydog100 said:

A lot to wasted energy here. How about we just let the teams play their respective games, and let the Big East Tournament begin.

With 89 posts, I'm happy to see you make each one count.

[FLHoya]

Mar 6, 2015 7:55:33 GMT -5 FrazierFanatic said:

Mar 5, 2015 15:20:32 GMT -5 michaelgrahmstylie said:

Some of you guys have way too much time on your hands. Anyone want to help read some students' essays?

I can see it now - a 14 page thread on the proper usage of the pluperfect subjunctive tense.

I hoped that we had considered the implications of letting Craig Esherick design that end of game play.

[puppydog100]

strummer8526, I have a full time job.