HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 22, 2015 8:13:32 GMT -5
Per Pomeroy
Expected Conference Wins - Sum of Win Probabilities
1. Nova 15.21 2. Hoyas 11.69 3. Butler 11.62 4. Prov. 11.06 5. Xavier 9.50 6. St Johns 8.80 7. DePaul 7.18 8. S. Hall 6.37 9. Marq. 4.41 10.Creigh. 4.16
Expected Conference Wins - Favorite wins
1. Nova 16 2. Butler 12 3. Prov. 12 4. Hoyas 11 5. St Johns 10 6. Xavier 9 7. DePaul 7 8. S. Hall 6 9. Marq. 4 10.Creigh. 3
Some thoughts:
Winning out in conference for the Hoyas would seem like a really good idea, but we are minor underdogs at both St Johns and Butler although Butler's prospects are diminished by Chrabascz's health status. Consequently, even though our expected wins would place us in second place we would end up in fourth if the chalk holds for every game. Second place gives us a probable path of DePaul in a 2-7 game, then probably Providence and then Nova. If we finish third, there would be a good chance that our quarterfinal game would be against Xavier. If we finish fourth we might have Xavier and then Nova.
For now, Villanova is our best friend as they have home games against Providence and St Johns and an away game at Xavier. If any of these three teams were to beat Nova, the projected standings would be seriously scrambled.
Providence's chances of getting to 12 wins are high. Other than the game at Nova where they are significant underdogs, they are at home against Marquette and finish against Seton Hall (Away) and Butler (Home). Both Seton Hall (disintegration) and Butler (injury) are probably overrated by Pomeroy.
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aristides
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 341
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Post by aristides on Feb 22, 2015 9:26:35 GMT -5
I'm probably the exception here but I'm not worried about the Hoyas getting the "easiest " matchup possible for the BE tourney. If they get a supposedly easier opponent, great. If they get a matchup nightmare like Xavier, then that will be a great opportunity to exorcise some demons and to hopefully improve against a tough opponent prior to the NCAA tourney. It might be just the medicine they need for a deep March run.
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bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Feb 22, 2015 10:57:40 GMT -5
There is a good chance for a fourth game against Butler in a BET semifinal. When is the last time Georgetown played an opponent 4 times in a season?
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 22, 2015 11:10:51 GMT -5
There is a good chance for a fourth game against Butler in a BET semifinal. When is the last time Georgetown played an opponent 4 times in a season? Providence in 1987.
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SirSaxa
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 15,620
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Post by SirSaxa on Feb 22, 2015 11:16:47 GMT -5
There is a good chance for a fourth game against Butler in a BET semifinal. When is the last time Georgetown played an opponent 4 times in a season? Providence in 1987. Thanks for the reminder I thought I'd gotten over that one. But you reminded me I haven't.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 22, 2015 12:09:48 GMT -5
I'm probably the exception here but I'm not worried about the Hoyas getting the "easiest " matchup possible for the BE tourney. If they get a supposedly easier opponent, great. If they get a matchup nightmare like Xavier, then that will be a great opportunity to exorcise some demons and to hopefully improve against a tough opponent prior to the NCAA tourney. It might be just the medicine they need for a deep March run. Agreed. I sweat this every year, but we could stress about playing a team we beat twice or a team we lost to twice, Last year we played a team we had never lost to in the history of the BE...and lost. It's useful to see how the BE standings will play out, but I could care less who we play in the BET.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Feb 22, 2015 12:24:39 GMT -5
I'm probably the exception here but I'm not worried about the Hoyas getting the "easiest " matchup possible for the BE tourney. If they get a supposedly easier opponent, great. If they get a matchup nightmare like Xavier, then that will be a great opportunity to exorcise some demons and to hopefully improve against a tough opponent prior to the NCAA tourney. It might be just the medicine they need for a deep March run. Agreed. I sweat this every year, but we could stress about playing a team we beat twice or a team we lost to twice, Last year we played a team we had never lost to in the history of the BE...and lost. It's useful to see how the BE standings will play out, but I could care less who we play in the BET. Another factor to consider for many that head to NYC for the BET is the bracket/schedule. The 2 or 3 seed is obviously much better than the 4/5 based on the Thursday quarterfinals schedule. 2 and 3 play in the night games - 4/5 play at 230 p.m. - in addition to most likely having to face Nova on Friday night (no thanks). Count me as someone who will be tracking this very closely the next two weeks and very much hoping for the 2 or 3.
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dense
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,956
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Post by dense on Feb 22, 2015 12:25:04 GMT -5
I don't care who we play as long as on Saturday night its us versus Villanova.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 22, 2015 12:26:41 GMT -5
The Key games we don't control are: Providence @ Nova, Butler @ Providence.
Butler and Providence play each other so one of them at the very least will suffer a loss. So if we win out the worst we could do would be 3rd. And that would only be if Providence wins out, which isn't likely.
So I think our chances for 2nd are pretty good. Assuming Provience loses at Nova, if we win out we're 2nd. If we lose @ Butler then we have to hope that providence and Butler drop another game some where.
A 3 way tie between us tends not to go well.
Currently Providence is 3-0, We're 1-2 and and Butler is 0-2. So even best case us beating Butler only get's us to 2-2 and even if Butler wins @ providence. Providence wins on 3-1 vs. 2-2.
A two way tie between us and Butler is fine because no matter what we'll win that tie breaker even if they beat us at home because we'd be 1-1 but we'd win on a 1-1 record vs. Nova while they were swept. Obviously we lose any 2 way tie with providence.
None of the remaining games are gimmie's for any of our 3 teams.
Providence plays @ Nova, Hosts marquette (but they lost @ Marquette already), @ the Hall( weakened but they only won by 7 at home and that game was post implosion), and then vs. Butler. Butler Hosts marquette (but they needed OT to win @ marquette when healthy), @ DePaul (they only won by 10 at home when healthy), host us, and then play @ Providence.
So lot's can happen.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 22, 2015 12:27:44 GMT -5
I don't care who we play as long as on Saturday night its us versus Villanova. I don't care who we face as long as we're playing on Saturday night.
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dense
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,956
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Post by dense on Feb 22, 2015 12:29:32 GMT -5
I just want it to be a spectacle that espn has to cover
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 22, 2015 12:34:34 GMT -5
Yes, coming in 2nd place is better than coming in 3rd or 4th. Not complaining about that of course. My point is that I don't care about matchups.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 22, 2015 18:50:02 GMT -5
I don't give a who we play or whether we win a single game in the BET. Any pretense of an argument that winning the BET vis-a-vis the NCAAs means anything anymore has been disintegrated by recent seasons. I suppose we could win out from here including the BET and maybe get as high as a 3 or definitely a 4 seed, thereby theoretically making our first round game easier. But the NCAAs are all that matters.
This is obviously stupid, sample-size absurdity, but let me just point out that the only year since 2008 that we've won an NCAA tournament game was a year in which we exited the BET on Thursday, and any year since 2008 that we have advanced to Friday night at the Garden (at least) has ended with an immediate NCAA loss.
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Post by HoyasAreHungry on Feb 22, 2015 19:13:21 GMT -5
I don't give a Edited who we play or whether we win a single game in the BET. Any pretense of an argument that winning the BET vis-a-vis the NCAAs means anything anymore has been disintegrated by recent seasons. I suppose we could win out from here including the BET and maybe get as high as a 3 or definitely a 4 seed, thereby theoretically making our first round game easier. But the NCAAs are all that matters. This is obviously stupid, sample-size absurdity, but let me just point out that the only year since 2008 that we've won an NCAA tournament game was a year in which we exited the BET on Thursday, and any year since 2008 that we have advanced to Friday night at the Garden (at least) has ended with an immediate NCAA loss. Also hard to compare now that there are less rounds in the BET. I think we can agree that generally the further we go in the BET the better the team is overall. I would argue that losing like we have in the BET should have been a red flag. With any single elimination tourney it's all about the matchup. I'm fairly bullish on our chances this year (knock on wood) and the game last night was further support. We faced a "lesser" team who was fired up and hungry and that started shooting the lights out. We weathered the storm and punched back. Unlike years past we have multiple ways to score, and we're not going to be overwhelmed with a mid major hyper athletic gunning team. We've got the athleticism across the board the handle it. Josh when engaged provides a big advantage. If we're not hitting jumpshots we can get to the rim. And when our jumpshots are falling there's that as well. If all 3 click woo boy. You saw what happened vs nova. Are we perfect? No. We can still lose to anyone. But my point Is I feel better about taking one on the chin from a lower seed this year and instead of rolling over, punching back. Agree or not whatever. That's my personal feeling at least. I think this team is much more suited for tourney success than in years past. These next few weeks will show us a lot.
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dense
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,956
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Post by dense on Feb 22, 2015 21:37:24 GMT -5
I don't give a Edited who we play or whether we win a single game in the BET. Any pretense of an argument that winning the BET vis-a-vis the NCAAs means anything anymore has been disintegrated by recent seasons. I suppose we could win out from here including the BET and maybe get as high as a 3 or definitely a 4 seed, thereby theoretically making our first round game easier. But the NCAAs are all that matters. This is obviously stupid, sample-size absurdity, but let me just point out that the only year since 2008 that we've won an NCAA tournament game was a year in which we exited the BET on Thursday, and any year since 2008 that we have advanced to Friday night at the Garden (at least) has ended with an immediate NCAA loss. I care. I want to win the BE tourney. The NCAA tourney is a crapshoot and if you don't get to a final four the season isn't memorable at all unless you won some real hardware before that. You win a bunch of conference titles you become the national brand of excellence.
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aristides
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 341
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Post by aristides on Feb 22, 2015 21:56:39 GMT -5
I don't give a Edited who we play or whether we win a single game in the BET. Any pretense of an argument that winning the BET vis-a-vis the NCAAs means anything anymore has been disintegrated by recent seasons. I suppose we could win out from here including the BET and maybe get as high as a 3 or definitely a 4 seed, thereby theoretically making our first round game easier. But the NCAAs are all that matters. This is obviously stupid, sample-size absurdity, but let me just point out that the only year since 2008 that we've won an NCAA tournament game was a year in which we exited the BET on Thursday, and any year since 2008 that we have advanced to Friday night at the Garden (at least) has ended with an immediate NCAA loss. I agree with the first part of that sentence but not with the second. Big East championship would be great for the Hoyas to get and as a fan, it'd be a thrill for me to watch them do it. I don't buy into any arguments saying that BE tourney success and NCAA tourney success are mutually exclusive.
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Elvado
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,080
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Post by Elvado on Feb 23, 2015 6:09:06 GMT -5
In point of Hoya fact, while BET success does not automatically equate to NCAA success, the four GU final four teams in the BET era all won the BET.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 23, 2015 7:12:55 GMT -5
I believe in a post-Roy world, the Hoyas have won consecutive games in a post-season tournament (BET, NIT, NCAA) once?
So maybe these Hoyas want to do something about that. There's value in seeing it happen and knowing that you can succeed in a tournament setting and yes the approach is different. Selfishly I want them to succeed in both tournaments as not only a fan but also as someone who doesn't want to see the word "crapshoot" on this board when we "randomly" roll snake eyes for the 6th straight time. This team has talent, depth, experience, and can score inside and outside. Add preparation and intensity and win starting in New York.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 23, 2015 8:22:12 GMT -5
I believe in a post-Roy world, the Hoyas have won consecutive games in a post-season tournament (BET, NIT, NCAA) once? So maybe these Hoyas want to do something about that. There's value in seeing it happen and knowing that you can succeed in a tournament setting and yes the approach is different. Selfishly I want them to succeed in both tournaments as not only a fan but also as someone who doesn't want to see the word "crapshoot" on this board when we "randomly" roll snake eyes for the 6th straight time. This team has talent, depth, experience, and can score inside and outside. Add preparation and intensity and win starting in New York. I want to win in NY for the simple reason that doing so will mean almost by definition that we are playing well. I don't care nearly as much about the BET as I do about the NCAAT. Indeed, while the tourney is undoubtedly fun, I actually view regular season titles as more significant (though I recognize I may be in the minority on that). In any event, although I get that winning in NY doesn't necessarily lead to NCAA success, and I even understand that it can lead to injuries, fatigue, etc., if you're beating quality teams in NY, it means you're playing pretty well. And if you're playing pretty well, your chances in the NCAAs are pretty good.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 23, 2015 20:36:51 GMT -5
You win a bunch of conference titles you become the national brand of excellence. You mean like the 2013 Big East champions that established that national brand of excellence. No one remembers what happens in the BET unless you win the whole thing. Everyone remembers success or failure in the NCAAs. If you don't think a first round win as a higher seed would be a huge deal for this team, to say nothing of a possible Sweet Sixteen berth, you haven't been paying attention to what has gone on around here recently.
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