Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 2, 2015 10:25:08 GMT -5
I think the Xavier game was a (humbling) reminder that because of the competitiveness of the conference and our always-weak weeknight home court advantage, we can expect little and assume nothing.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 2, 2015 10:47:20 GMT -5
As I look at the schedule, this game against Providence is an extremely important game for us.
We play with house money at Nova. At Butler will be tough. Odds makers will probably favor our opponents in both games. We'll be favored at home against DePaul and hopefully that's a win if we don't lay a clunker.
That leaves this upcoming home game against Providence and the home/away games against SHU and SJU as the 5 games that will likely have the biggest impact on our ranking/seeding.
Let's get this one on Wednesday and keep the positive momentum going.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 2, 2015 11:19:45 GMT -5
I loved that coach had us work on our zone defense in the second half against Creighton when it was clear that they couldn't hang with us. It was great to see coach using a game to improve our weaknesses. I'm glad you pointed that out. I thought the exact same thing.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Feb 2, 2015 11:21:53 GMT -5
Obviously Wednesday is huge but I wouldn't give up on beating Nova at home. Jay wright won't change his defense and go to a zone. I remember last year Creighton killed them at home and then did it again a week or two later at Nova. Maybe we have their number like Xavier has ours. I'm not saying we force 17 turnovers and win by 20 but that we aren't manhandled by them.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 2, 2015 11:51:01 GMT -5
I don't think anybody believes we can't win at Nova. The point is just that it isn't fair to expect that W. It was probably the first game you would cross of the schedule as a likely L.
I see that we are up to 27th in KenPom defensive efficiency. That is a big, big deal. Historically, a meaningful NCAA run is very, very difficult without a top 25 KenPom defense. If we can keep building on that, there are reasons to be encouraged.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 2, 2015 11:54:26 GMT -5
Speaking of KenPom, is this the most Notre Dame Notre Dame team ever? 2nd in offensive efficiency, 150th in defense.
I look forward to picking that first weekend NCAA upset (Wisconsin too--terrible D for a Bo Ryan team!)
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Post by arlingtonhoya05 on Feb 2, 2015 12:44:13 GMT -5
STUDENTS!!!!!!!!!! COME TO THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 2, 2015 13:23:56 GMT -5
I don't think anybody believes we can't win at Nova. The point is just that it isn't fair to expect that W. It was probably the first game you would cross of the schedule as a likely L. I see that we are up to 27th in KenPom defensive efficiency. That is a big, big deal. Historically, a meaningful NCAA run is very, very difficult without a top 25 KenPom defense. If we can keep building on that, there are reasons to be encouraged. I do agree the defense has improved and needs to keep doing so, but that ranking on KenPom is skewed slightly by a historically bad shooting night by Creighton. They scored .66 ppp, gotta be one of the worse offensive outputs this year.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 2, 2015 13:27:27 GMT -5
Since our game against PC, Kris Dunn has been on an absolute tear. He's averaging 21.6ppg, 8.4rpg and 7.4 apg and is shooting 55% from the floor and 37.5% from three.
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aristides
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Post by aristides on Feb 2, 2015 13:37:05 GMT -5
Obviously Wednesday is huge but I wouldn't give up on beating Nova at home. Jay wright won't change his defense and go to a zone. I remember last year Creighton killed them at home and then did it again a week or two later at Nova. Maybe we have their number like Xavier has ours. I'm not saying we force 17 turnovers and win by 20 but that we aren't manhandled by them. I'll be curious if you're right regarding the zone. Wright stated in the post-game presser that he planned to throw some zone against the Hoyas but they fell behind so quickly that he never got the chance. And then JTIII mentioned as an aside in one interview that there are some teams you never have to worry about playing zone against you, such as Nova. I can't remember what defense Provi played in the last game against the Hoyas but I'll guess this Wednesday will be a mix of zone and man to man. The Xavier loss has to have adjusted the book somewhat and left opposing coaches more open to playing man to man defense.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 2, 2015 14:47:56 GMT -5
Big swing game for the Hoyas. This can set up a great finish in the conference or pull us right back into the muddle where we will be clawing it out with SHU, X, etc. Since this is at home and a revenge game, no excuse not to play well. There is no excuse not to bring energy from the tip and play a good, fundamentally sound game - low TOs, good FT shooting, swarming defense and share the ball with a purpose. If we do that and still lose, fine, but it would take a great game by PC to do it.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Feb 2, 2015 15:01:03 GMT -5
Reminded of the 2010 game against Duke. Had been humiliated by Cuse the game before and just killed Duke. Granted that team had Monroe and Wright and Freeman. Also you have to give coach K credit. He learned from us that he needed to play Zubek more since we ate them up inside. He made changes in his lineup and went on to win NCAA championship. I really hope that win or lose the next few games JT3 learns enough to have us ready come March.
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dense
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Post by dense on Feb 2, 2015 18:49:45 GMT -5
Providence plays mostly a 2-3 zone. They played it the whole game 1st game.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 2, 2015 19:03:55 GMT -5
Providence plays mostly a 2-3 zone. They played it the whole game 1st game. Move the ball. Get it into the middle. Hit some shots.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 2, 2015 21:22:29 GMT -5
Interesting note from the Providence board: when tip off comes on Wednesday, it will be 4,029 days since the Friars last defeated a Top 25 team on the road (January 24, 2004 at Connecticut).
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 2, 2015 21:41:02 GMT -5
Interesting note from the Providence board: when tip off comes on Wednesday, it will be 4,029 days since the Friars last defeated a Top 25 team on the road (January 24, 2004 at Connecticut). 4,030 here we come.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 3, 2015 11:09:07 GMT -5
I don't think anybody believes we can't win at Nova. The point is just that it isn't fair to expect that W. It was probably the first game you would cross of the schedule as a likely L. I see that we are up to 27th in KenPom defensive efficiency. That is a big, big deal. Historically, a meaningful NCAA run is very, very difficult without a top 25 KenPom defense. If we can keep building on that, there are reasons to be encouraged. I do agree the defense has improved and needs to keep doing so, but that ranking on KenPom is skewed slightly by a historically bad shooting night by Creighton. They scored .66 ppp, gotta be one of the worse offensive outputs this year. But doesn't Pomeroy account for strength of opponent?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 3, 2015 11:42:33 GMT -5
I do agree the defense has improved and needs to keep doing so, but that ranking on KenPom is skewed slightly by a historically bad shooting night by Creighton. They scored .66 ppp, gotta be one of the worse offensive outputs this year. But doesn't Pomeroy account for strength of opponent? Yes, it does for the team efficiency ratings. It's going to give us credit, though, if an opponent plays below their average level, no matter if we caused it or Creighton caused it. Of course, it also "punishes" us if a team plays above their average level. We're probably a little overrated just after every big win and a little underrated after every big loss. The biggest learning from these swings in Pomeroy is that the number 15-50 teams probably aren't all that far apart in quality. Notre Dame is #15 today, with a .9063 rating. That means that Pomeroy would expect them to win 91% of games against an average schedule -- average across all D-I, not all D-I major conferences. Funnily enough, Notre Dame has an average schedule about, so their 20-3 record is basically on track. Georgetown is #21, but with a .8776 rating. That's just .03 of winning percentage. One game over a 30 game season difference. We have the 7th toughest schedule, though, so far, so our 15-6 record is basically almost the same as Notre Dame's 20-3 record once you adjust for competition. Maryland is #32 at .8387 and 18-4. St. John's is at #37 and .8230. Providence at #51 and .7861. That's just .12 points of winning percentage between #15 and #51. Over 30 games, that's just 3 games over 30 games. That's not a ton.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 3, 2015 13:35:24 GMT -5
With all the early matriculations from college hoops, the quality of play has been lowered and compressed. It is not surprising that the margins you cite are razor thin, even between a #10 team and a #50 team.
The players who can really explode in college either don't go to college or don't play long enough to make a huge, multi-year impact on the game.
Man, the 1980s were sweet.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 4, 2015 6:35:10 GMT -5
I want to see the Hoyas play mean and rebound ferociously tonight.
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